hektor Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Sir Rols, if you voted for Madrid in the first round, there is a high likelihood that precisely you don't want to maximize the chances for European Olympics in 2024. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattperiolat Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 See? FOr the first time since this race started, it's actually interesting! Cannot wait to see the vote totals and the end and see where the vote swing was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filipe_Golias Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Gosh, I really don't have a clue on which city will take this. I keep pending between one and the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athensfan Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Will some members vote for Tokyo annoyed that Istanbul knocked them out or vote for Istanbul because Tokyo had more I don't believe it will be that petty. It will be more geopolitical. Consider: If you're a North American angling for 2024 and you voted for Madrid, you're obviously going to change your vote to Istanbul rather than Tokyo, because it will increase your chances at 2024. If you're European and you voted for Madrid, you're more likely to switch to Istanbul than Tokyo because it's European. If you're Asian and you voted for Madrid, you're very unlikely to suddenly favor Tokyo. The question comes with African and South American supporters of Madrid. Where do they turn? It's kind of anybody's guess. Africans may be more likely to turn to Tokyo if they're pulling for Durban, but this is kind of stupid because Durban is going to win no matter what as soon as they come up with a decent bid. South Americans, I really don't know. At that point I suppose it comes down to which bid you like better. Many of the Rio supporters on GB seemed to feel some solidarity with Istanbul because it is also a new frontier of sorts. Perhaps that carries over to the IOC, perhaps not. Unless Tokyo had a big lead on the first ballot, I think Istanbul's chances are decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
intoronto Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Hektor it was 49-45 according to ATR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr.bernham Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 For all you Istanbul Supporters here is a victory poster for when we win: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kenadian Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 I don't believe for a minute that IOC voters vote in continental or linguistic blocs. This isn't Olympivision or Olympic Idol. They vote based on their own individual assessment of what is best for the movement, sport, the athletes, the federations, and other considerations. Sometimes they are moved by the narrative. Sometimes, pragmatism takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Rols Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Sir Rols, if you voted for Madrid in the first round, there is a high likelihood that precisely you don't want to maximize the chances for European Olympics in 2024. But Madrid out now is exactly what gives Europe a better chance in 24. So they would have ben in the minority anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofan Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Simple self-interest, surely, would dictate that a lot of madrid backers will move their votes to Tokyo to maximise Europe's chances for 2024. Why wouldn't they want a European games as soon as possible by choosing Istanbul? Sure it wouldn't be a traditional European site like London or Paris or Rome, but its still an Olympics in Europe. Maybe there will be division within Europe, with Western European members preferring what you just brought up and the rest of the European members having different agendas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FYI Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 There's also the presidential election that's still at play here. Although, Istanbul still provides an ambiguous enough view between both continents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattperiolat Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 I don't believe for a minute that IOC voters vote in continental or linguistic blocs. This isn't Olympivision or Olympic Idol. They vote based on their own individual assessment of what is best for the movement, sport, the athletes, the federations, and other considerations. Sometimes they are moved by the narrative. Sometimes, pragmatism takes over. I wish it were always that simple and altruistic, but it's not. At least, not until recently. You cannot tell me people honestly believed the best interests of the athletes were served by sending them to Beijing over Toronto. If that were true, why did Beijing not win the 2000 vote over Sydney? And what about the speculated punitive action in electing Torino over Sion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filipe_Golias Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Just realized that the 2020 host city is being elected in the 2016 host country's independence day (and 2016 Paralympics opening ceremony day). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FYI Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Yeah, but if you can still have the Olympics much more within Europe or right in your own backyard, then that's where those members would vote Tokyo instead of Istanbul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faster Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 I disagree. I think many votes from the Americas will move from Madrid to Istanbul, to further the chance of a North American bid in 2024. I don't believe for a minute that IOC voters vote in continental or linguistic blocs. This isn't Olympivision or Olympic Idol. They vote based on their own individual assessment of what is best for the movement, sport, the athletes, the federations, and other considerations. Sometimes they are moved by the narrative. Sometimes, pragmatism takes over. North American votes are only 5 and I am sure two of them were already in Istanbul's court and 1 (Pound) was voting for Tokyo. I think there is some basis to the continental blocks but there are outliers. I think many African votes supported Istanbul, but someone like Ramsamy or el Moutawakel who do vote on technical merit. Whereas someone like Duke Henri or Albert or Frederick may also vote based on personal relationships. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tpman Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 I don't believe it will be that petty. It will be more geopolitical. The question comes with African and South American supporters of Madrid. Where do they turn? It's kind of anybody's guess. Well, Brazil did a lot of political lobby in Africa, Asia, Arab countries and East Europe to gain support for Rio 2016. I do suppose Madrid got mostly from the South American votes and those votes can migrate to Istanbul more easily than to Tokyo. Even Brazil has more ties to Turkey now giving the issues of new emerging economies. But lets see... its difficult to say anything without knowing the numbers from the first ballot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cinderella Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 I can't see why Istanbul can grab the victory right now. Nor Americans/Europeans would like to have a two-continent city hosting. It's better a completely Asian spot for them. Anyhow, I would LOVE to see Istanbul winning now that Madrid's dream is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tpman Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 But Madrid out now is exactly what gives Europe a better chance in 24. So they would have ben in the minority anyway. Paris 2024 anyone? I bet Paris will be a stronger favorite if they bid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hektor Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Paris won't bid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Rols Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Paris 2024 anyone? I bet Paris will be a stronger favorite if they bid. I think most here would bet that too. Paris won't bid. They'd almost be silly not to now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattperiolat Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Safe to say if Tokyo gets this, Istanbul will be back for 2024. Have to see about Madrid. But also safe to say if Istanbul gets it, we've heard the last from Madrid for a while. Tokyo may try again for 2024, but maybe the 8s are lucky for Asia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Europe Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Just 12 plus around 10 minutes left... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Just got a tweet from Nelson Mandela: Go Fujiwara he says. Durban 2024 here we come!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faster Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Safe to say if Tokyo gets this, Istanbul will be back for 2024. Have to see about Madrid. But also safe to say if Istanbul gets it, we've heard the last from Madrid for a while. Tokyo may try again for 2024, but maybe the 8s are lucky for Asia. In the background Tokyo has said this will be their last bid for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olympic Fan Darcy Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Paris Vs Durban. Hopefully more bids for 2024! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr.bernham Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Safe to say if Tokyo gets this, Istanbul will be back for 2024. Have to see about Madrid. But also safe to say if Istanbul gets it, we've heard the last from Madrid for a while. Tokyo may try again for 2024, but maybe the 8s are lucky for Asia. I could see 2028 going to Melbourne/ Sydney/ Shanghai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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