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Safe to say if Tokyo gets this, Istanbul will be back for 2024. Have to see about Madrid. But also safe to say if Istanbul gets it, we've heard the last from Madrid for a while. Tokyo may try again for 2024, but maybe the 8s are lucky for Asia.

I'd say if Istanbul loses to Tokyo, they should learn from Madrid and NOT bid again. I think Istanbul should sit it out until 2032.

Africa, Western Europe and even North America could prove too strong for them. That is why the next hour is so vital - it is the closest they have ever come in their Olympic endeavours, and probably the closest they will come for the next few decades.

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MADRID 2028, MADRID 2032, MADRID 2036, MADRID 2040, MADRID 2044.....

I wouldn't be surprised. But if the competition is heavy, like is already being mentioned after this 2020 Asian win, then they better think long & hard if they really want to go through all of thi

"Thank you for your $50 million bid fee, here is your diploma."

For me the right strategy for Paris is to hope for North American Games in 2024 and target 2028.

In addition this will kill the silly idea to bid with the argument of Centennial Games which is really a bad, bad idea.

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I don't believe for a minute that IOC voters vote in continental or linguistic blocs. This isn't Olympivision or Olympic Idol. They vote based on their own individual assessment of what is best for the movement, sport, the athletes, the federations, and other considerations. Sometimes they are moved by the narrative. Sometimes, pragmatism takes over.

I was not suggesting that they vote in blocs. I was presenting an "if, then" scenario. Also, the words "more likely" are key.

IF you are a North American supporter of Madrid, THEN you are MORE LIKELY to switch to Istanbul than Tokyo.

Of course it's possible that there are voters who make their choices based on which bid they actually believe to be the best (or for that matter, which logo they prefer, who knows?).

I was not stating a "law" but trying to anticipate a likely pattern. I believe geopolitics are a very key factor, but they are one of many. When it comes to anticipating results, I think it makes sense to consider the geopolitics.

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In the background Tokyo has said this will be their last bid for awhile.

Really? I think it depends on how close the vote was. If Tokyo lost by 5 votes or less, they may be back for 2024. Either that or really hope the 8s are lucky and sit out 2024 knowing Europe or North America or Africa may get it.

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If Istanbul lost, blame Syria. Seriously.

I can't see any other reasons why Istanbul should not be hosting this Games. It's a long time coming.

I'd actually be more inclined to blame the recent strikes in their own country. Syria is a problem, but for now, regional. If that were the case, why give 2014 to Russia given their history of issues with Georgia?

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I'd say if Istanbul loses to Tokyo, they should learn from Madrid and NOT bid again. I think Istanbul should sit it out until 2032.

Africa, Western Europe and even North America could prove too strong for them. That is why the next hour is so vital - it is the closest they have ever come in their Olympic endeavours, and probably the closest they will come for the next few decades.

I have to say, Turkey has blossomed. Yes, they have issues, but it's not at all the same country that it was when they started bidding. Olympics in the Muslim world have great potential. I think the timing is good. It's the darn protests, doping and Syria that are the problem.

Regarding the doping, I don't understand why Istanbul didn't use Rogge's strategy on the subject. Positive drug tests are a GOOD sign. It means that cheaters are getting caught and prospective cheaters will think twice. I wish the Turks had emphasized this more.

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Really? I think it depends on how close the vote was. If Tokyo lost by 5 votes or less, they may be back for 2024. Either that or really hope the 8s are lucky and sit out 2024 knowing Europe or North America or Africa may get it.

It is hard for Western liberal democracies to continue to bid and maintain support for these projects. Especially when it was so hard to get support the first time. Look at Sweden, they would have probably been giftwrapped 2006 but they couldn't do it again.

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