hektor 87 Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 (edited) Sir Rols, if you voted for Madrid in the first round, there is a high likelihood that precisely you don't want to maximize the chances for European Olympics in 2024. Edited September 7, 2013 by hektor Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mattperiolat 35 Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 See? FOr the first time since this race started, it's actually interesting! Cannot wait to see the vote totals and the end and see where the vote swing was. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Filipe_Golias 20 Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Gosh, I really don't have a clue on which city will take this. I keep pending between one and the other. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Athensfan 1081 Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Will some members vote for Tokyo annoyed that Istanbul knocked them out or vote for Istanbul because Tokyo had more I don't believe it will be that petty. It will be more geopolitical. Consider: If you're a North American angling for 2024 and you voted for Madrid, you're obviously going to change your vote to Istanbul rather than Tokyo, because it will increase your chances at 2024. If you're European and you voted for Madrid, you're more likely to switch to Istanbul than Tokyo because it's European. If you're Asian and you voted for Madrid, you're very unlikely to suddenly favor Tokyo. The question comes with African and South American supporters of Madrid. Where do they turn? It's kind of anybody's guess. Africans may be more likely to turn to Tokyo if they're pulling for Durban, but this is kind of stupid because Durban is going to win no matter what as soon as they come up with a decent bid. South Americans, I really don't know. At that point I suppose it comes down to which bid you like better. Many of the Rio supporters on GB seemed to feel some solidarity with Istanbul because it is also a new frontier of sorts. Perhaps that carries over to the IOC, perhaps not. Unless Tokyo had a big lead on the first ballot, I think Istanbul's chances are decent. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
intoronto 650 Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Hektor it was 49-45 according to ATR. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mr.bernham 383 Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 For all you Istanbul Supporters here is a victory poster for when we win: Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Kenadian 300 Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 I don't believe for a minute that IOC voters vote in continental or linguistic blocs. This isn't Olympivision or Olympic Idol. They vote based on their own individual assessment of what is best for the movement, sport, the athletes, the federations, and other considerations. Sometimes they are moved by the narrative. Sometimes, pragmatism takes over. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sir Rols 1900 Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Sir Rols, if you voted for Madrid in the first round, there is a high likelihood that precisely you don't want to maximize the chances for European Olympics in 2024. But Madrid out now is exactly what gives Europe a better chance in 24. So they would have ben in the minority anyway. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ofan 697 Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Simple self-interest, surely, would dictate that a lot of madrid backers will move their votes to Tokyo to maximise Europe's chances for 2024. Why wouldn't they want a European games as soon as possible by choosing Istanbul? Sure it wouldn't be a traditional European site like London or Paris or Rome, but its still an Olympics in Europe. Maybe there will be division within Europe, with Western European members preferring what you just brought up and the rest of the European members having different agendas? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
FYI 1191 Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 There's also the presidential election that's still at play here. Although, Istanbul still provides an ambiguous enough view between both continents. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mattperiolat 35 Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 I don't believe for a minute that IOC voters vote in continental or linguistic blocs. This isn't Olympivision or Olympic Idol. They vote based on their own individual assessment of what is best for the movement, sport, the athletes, the federations, and other considerations. Sometimes they are moved by the narrative. Sometimes, pragmatism takes over. I wish it were always that simple and altruistic, but it's not. At least, not until recently. You cannot tell me people honestly believed the best interests of the athletes were served by sending them to Beijing over Toronto. If that were true, why did Beijing not win the 2000 vote over Sydney? And what about the speculated punitive action in electing Torino over Sion? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Filipe_Golias 20 Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Just realized that the 2020 host city is being elected in the 2016 host country's independence day (and 2016 Paralympics opening ceremony day). Quote Link to post Share on other sites
FYI 1191 Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Yeah, but if you can still have the Olympics much more within Europe or right in your own backyard, then that's where those members would vote Tokyo instead of Istanbul. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Faster 545 Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 I disagree. I think many votes from the Americas will move from Madrid to Istanbul, to further the chance of a North American bid in 2024. I don't believe for a minute that IOC voters vote in continental or linguistic blocs. This isn't Olympivision or Olympic Idol. They vote based on their own individual assessment of what is best for the movement, sport, the athletes, the federations, and other considerations. Sometimes they are moved by the narrative. Sometimes, pragmatism takes over. North American votes are only 5 and I am sure two of them were already in Istanbul's court and 1 (Pound) was voting for Tokyo. I think there is some basis to the continental blocks but there are outliers. I think many African votes supported Istanbul, but someone like Ramsamy or el Moutawakel who do vote on technical merit. Whereas someone like Duke Henri or Albert or Frederick may also vote based on personal relationships. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tpman 2 Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 I don't believe it will be that petty. It will be more geopolitical. The question comes with African and South American supporters of Madrid. Where do they turn? It's kind of anybody's guess. Well, Brazil did a lot of political lobby in Africa, Asia, Arab countries and East Europe to gain support for Rio 2016. I do suppose Madrid got mostly from the South American votes and those votes can migrate to Istanbul more easily than to Tokyo. Even Brazil has more ties to Turkey now giving the issues of new emerging economies. But lets see... its difficult to say anything without knowing the numbers from the first ballot. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Cinderella 6 Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 I can't see why Istanbul can grab the victory right now. Nor Americans/Europeans would like to have a two-continent city hosting. It's better a completely Asian spot for them. Anyhow, I would LOVE to see Istanbul winning now that Madrid's dream is over. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tpman 2 Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 But Madrid out now is exactly what gives Europe a better chance in 24. So they would have ben in the minority anyway. Paris 2024 anyone? I bet Paris will be a stronger favorite if they bid. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
hektor 87 Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Paris won't bid. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sir Rols 1900 Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Paris 2024 anyone? I bet Paris will be a stronger favorite if they bid. I think most here would bet that too. Paris won't bid. They'd almost be silly not to now. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mattperiolat 35 Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Safe to say if Tokyo gets this, Istanbul will be back for 2024. Have to see about Madrid. But also safe to say if Istanbul gets it, we've heard the last from Madrid for a while. Tokyo may try again for 2024, but maybe the 8s are lucky for Asia. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Go Europe 1 Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Just 12 plus around 10 minutes left... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
baron-pierreIV 1693 Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Just got a tweet from Nelson Mandela: Go Fujiwara he says. Durban 2024 here we come!! 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Faster 545 Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 (edited) Safe to say if Tokyo gets this, Istanbul will be back for 2024. Have to see about Madrid. But also safe to say if Istanbul gets it, we've heard the last from Madrid for a while. Tokyo may try again for 2024, but maybe the 8s are lucky for Asia. In the background Tokyo has said this will be their last bid for awhile. Edited September 7, 2013 by faster Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Olympic Fan Darcy 321 Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Paris Vs Durban. Hopefully more bids for 2024! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mr.bernham 383 Posted September 7, 2013 Report Share Posted September 7, 2013 Safe to say if Tokyo gets this, Istanbul will be back for 2024. Have to see about Madrid. But also safe to say if Istanbul gets it, we've heard the last from Madrid for a while. Tokyo may try again for 2024, but maybe the 8s are lucky for Asia. I could see 2028 going to Melbourne/ Sydney/ Shanghai Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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