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Sapporo 2030: Give them an offer they can't refuse with no bids involved


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5 hours ago, StefanMUC said:

The IOC just allowed the athletes representing that regime (neutral bla bla aside) to take part. Unlike after WW1 and WW2. And unlike Apartheid South Africa.

Exactly, and it was the manner of how he said it and justified it that raises massive read flags.  It was so nonchalant, almost defensive of Russia and their athletes.  He absolutely went to bat for them

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11 minutes ago, iceman530 said:

We hope so, we really......really hope so.  Awarding Russia a games right now would make Qatar 2022 look like a masterpiece, tame in comparison.  I am just saying, Bach's willingness to bend over for Putin is downright startling.  It is profoundly awful and he seems to not even care about the optics of it.  

There are enough authoritarian regimes in reserve that are in line for 2036.  Istanbul and Budapest look like very appealing chummy candidates that are not as terrible as Russia.  Erdogan or Orban will be perfect patsies to give the IOC what they want.  To me, Istanbul and Budapest are "the line".  They're terrible, but not terrible enough to not award the games to.  And the cities and history thing for both cities is rock solid too.  

 

Turkey-not-the-bird-so-call-it-Türkiye-now is probably done for after the earthquake which while at the other end of the country exposed brutally what will happen in Istanbul likely sooner than later. The quake also finally provided a substantial threat to Erdo’s reign which might even come to an end in next month’s election.

But it’s all going way off the thread’s actual topic which is Sapporo’s dead horse bid.

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“Sapporo’s bid will face a de-facto referendum April 9 when the city elects its Mayor. Incumbent Katsuhiro Akimoto is a strong supporter of the bid and is seeking his third term, but he will be challenged by two anti-Olympic candidates Kaoru Takano and Hideo Kibata – both who could call for the end of the bid if victorious.”

“According to the Asahi Shimbun poll, 56 percent said they would factor in the candidates’ position on the Olympic bid when they cast their ballots while 33 percent said it would have no bearing on their choice.”

“Meanwhile 79 percent felt that a full referendum should be held to approve the bid while only nine percent said a public vote would not be necessary.”

 

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5 minutes ago, AustralianFan said:

Hmmm ….

 

“SUBSTITUTE REFERENDUM” IN SAPPORO’s MAYORAL ELECTION ?

- Sunday 9 April 2023

Is Sapporo 2030’s bid really dead ?

Maybe there’s a flicker a chance of the bid restarting from life support, depending upon the result of Sunday’s Mayor Election n Sapporo?

Quote:

If Sapporo incumbent Mayor Katsushiro Akimoto is returned to office the bid could resume as the other two candidates are anti-Olympic.”

So …. here’s the twist.

 If pro-Olympics Mayor Kaysushiro actually wins Sunday’s election, could this accepted by the IOC Future Commission as a sufficient test of public support ?

The first New Norm host Brisbane never went to a referendum on the Olympic bid.  But the Queensland Government did win the State Election three months before the bid was elevated to Targeted Dialogue for the 2032 Games.

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, AustralianFan said:

If pro-Olympics Mayor Kaysushiro actually wins Sunday’s election, could this accepted by the IOC Future Commission as a sufficient test of public support ?

Read the entire text on this site about the poll and you find

a) 47% against and only 37% for. A mayoral election doesn't change that.

b) "Meanwhile 79 percent felt that a full referendum should be held to approve the bid while only nine percent said a public vote would not be necessary."

 

So: No!

The election on April 9 is only a substitute referendum to the extent that the bid is not only dead but well and truly buried as well if the incumbent loses. To ressurect the bid you'd need completely different numbers in a separate referendum in the next few months (according to your own time-line).

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34 minutes ago, Sigh said:

Read the entire text on this site about the poll and you find

a) 47% against and only 37% for. A mayoral election doesn't change that.

b) "Meanwhile 79 percent felt that a full referendum should be held to approve the bid while only nine percent said a public vote would not be necessary."

 

So: No!

The election on April 9 is only a substitute referendum to the extent that the bid is not only dead but well and truly buried as well if the incumbent loses. To ressurect the bid you'd need completely different numbers in a separate referendum in the next few months (according to your own time-line).

There is no rule in Japan  that says a referendum must be held to gauge public opnion on an Olympic bid.

There is no IOC rule either that there must be a referendum to measure public support for a bid.

So I agree the bid is dead if incumbent Mayor loses.
 

But ……. what if he wins ?  He is pro-Olympics, no question.

Will the IOC Future Host Commission accept his election win as also a vote in favour of the 2030 Winter Games?  A substitute referendum.

 

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There's no rule.  But if poll after poll (as always, take those for what they're worth) says they don't want the Olympics, maybe it's not a smart idea to ignore those just because the mayor favors the Olympics.

 

This is where the "don't hold a referendum so you don't have to find out the truth" strategy may not be the best way to go.

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2 hours ago, Quaker2001 said:

There's no rule.  But if poll after poll (as always, take those for what they're worth) says they don't want the Olympics, maybe it's not a smart idea to ignore those just because the mayor favors the Olympics.

 

This is where the "don't hold a referendum so you don't have to find out the truth" strategy may not be the best way to go.

If I remember correctly the argument for not having a referendum in Brisbane was because of the consistent positive polling. Logically, consistent negative polling should be enough to stop the bid to proceed further.

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1 hour ago, Sigh said:

If I remember correctly the argument for not having a referendum in Brisbane was because of the consistent positive polling. Logically, consistent negative polling should be enough to stop the bid to proceed further.

Correct, opnion polls showed support around 65% in Brisbane, which is not the case in Sapporo.

But, if the pro-Olympics Mayor is re-elected on Sunday with a majority and then restarts the Bid, you have to wonder how positively the IOC Future Host Commission then views this in terms of Sapporo’s chances of elevation to Targeted Dialogue.

One important box would also have just been ticked as far as the government support for the bid since the newly re-elected Mayor leads the Sapporo Government.

For the Future Host Commission to make a recommendation to the IOC EB to elevate Sapporo to Targeted Dialogue for 2030, it would need to base it on an interpretation that would read something like this:  

the majority of voters in Sapporo have indicated their support for hosting the 2030 Olympics by choosing to elect the only Mayoral candidate who supports l0Sapporo hosting the Games.

Yes, it’s a stretch …. but stranger things have happened.  It depends too on how desperate  the IOC Future Host Commission are to recommend Sapporo as the preferred bidder for 2030.

Food for thought anyway.   Sunday’s election result in Sapporo will be keenly watched.

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Yea, right.. "where thought necessary"

That seems like code for "we'll held a referendum if we think it will produce the results we want, but if it might show us in a negative light, let's look for some confirmation bias with opinion polls and go off that"

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1 hour ago, AustralianFan said:

 

I3Ypi8Q.jpg

Ignoring public opinion, even if they try to dress it up like indicated, would make a mockery of the IOC and also would seriously endanger the 2030 games at a later date.

What is the position of the national government that at least will have to provide the extensive security necessary?

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20 minutes ago, Sigh said:

Ignoring public opinion, even if they try to dress it up like indicated, would make a mockery of the IOC and also would seriously endanger the 2030 games at a later date.

What is the position of the national government that at least will have to provide the extensive security necessary?

Good question.

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1 hour ago, AustralianFan said:

Yes, it’s a stretch …. but stranger things have happened.  It depends too on how desperate  the IOC Future Host Commission are to recommend Sapporo as the preferred bidder for 2030.

 

1 hour ago, AustralianFan said:

 

I3Ypi8Q.jpg

Well, yeah. That should be no surprise. If Sapporo didn't have it's lack of support issues, it would've been the 2030 "preferred bidder" long ago. But The IOC does what it wants, whenever it wants, that's no big secret.

What is a surprise, though, is you pointing out the desperation, since it goes against all of the new-norm rhetoric that you've constantly draped these threads in over the last couple of years. Or is it simply because Rob is the one pointing that out this time?

And/or because if the IOC was to break one of it's own rules in this instance, it would allow Sapporo to move forward & seemingly then not put the IOC in a more precarious position than they are already in? Either way, though, all of it is akin to; too little, too late. And no matter what they do now, will probably make things even more precarious. At least when it comes to the 2030 Winter Games anyway.

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1 hour ago, FYI said:

 

Well, yeah. That should be no surprise. If Sapporo didn't have it's lack of support issues, it would've been the 2030 "preferred bidder" long ago. But The IOC does what it wants, whenever it wants, that's no big secret.

What is a surprise, though, is you pointing out the desperation, since it goes against all of the new-norm rhetoric that you've constantly draped these threads in over the last couple of years. Or is it simply because Rob is the one pointing that out this time?

And/or because if the IOC was to break one of it's own rules in this instance, it would allow Sapporo to move forward & seemingly then not put the IOC in a more precarious position than they are already in? Either way, though, all of it is akin to; too little, too late. And no matter what they do now, will probably make things even more precarious. At least when it comes to the 2030 Winter Games anyway.

Sunday is not far away.

Would be interesting to see firstly if the pro-Olympics Sapporo Mayor is re-elected.

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Interesting too from AP News today …..

*************************************

Sapporo election could restart bid for 2030 Winter Olympics

Sapporo’s bid for the 2030 Winter Olympics has been slowed — but not stopped — by fallout from the still-developing corruption scandal around the 2020 Tokyo Games.

The pursuit could resume if Sapporo Mayor Katsuhiro Akimoto is re-elected on Sunday, as expected, against two anti-Olympic candidates.

The northern Japanese city suspended actively promoting the bid three months ago, hoping damage from Tokyo’s scandal would fade from view. 

It hasn’t entirely and Sapporo, once the favorite, now has an uncertain Olympic future.

A January poll by the regional newspaper Hokkaido Shimbun showed 67% were opposed to holding the Olympics.

Sapporo has declined to call a public referendum over the Olympics, although the mayor’s re-election could be touted as a substitute. Public votes over staging the Olympics almost always fail.

Victor Matheson, who studies sports economics at the College of the Holy Cross in Worcester, Massachusetts, suggested a public vote before awarding any Games.

“I think a nice simple change — that the IOC would never go along with — is that every bid should be required to hold a popular vote before being finally awarded,” Matheson said in an email. “That promotes transparency, reduces the more extravagant impulses of the IOC, and limits that ability of autocratic countries from hosting the games (although they could obviously sponsor sham elections).”

Credit: Sapporo election could restart bid for 2030 Winter Olympics - AP News - 7 April 2023

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Sapporo Mayor Katsuhiro Akimoto is actually being tipped to be re-elected this Sunday, which is very interesting and this is despite opinion polls on the Games.  

This is from US News.com:

*************************************************************

SAPPORO ELECTION COULD RESTART BID FOR 2030 OLYMPICS

Sapporo's bid for the 2030 Winter Olympics has been slowed — but not stopped — by fallout from the still-developing corruption scandal around the 2020 Tokyo Games.

The pursuit could resume if Sapporo Mayor Katsuhiro Akimoto is re-elected on Sunday, as expected, against two anti-Olympic candidates.

The northern Japanese city suspended actively promoting the bid three months ago, hoping damage from Tokyo's scandal would fade from view.

It hasn't entirely and Sapporo, once the favorite, now has an uncertain Olympic future.

A January poll by the regional newspaper Hokkaido Shimbun showed 67% were opposed to holding the Olympics.

Sapporo and Vancouver were the only known candidates for 2030. Vancouver was sidelined when the provincial government declined to support financing, and Sapporo has stalled.

This prompted the IOC to recruit Stockholm, Sweden — aided by powerful Swedish IOC member Gunilla Lindberg. Swedish officials say they are doing a feasibility study. Vague plans have also surfaced for a possible bid from Switzerland.

Sweden is unlikely to require a public vote, although Switzerland is likely to.

Credit: Sapporo Election Could Restart Bid for 2030 Winter Olympics - 6 April 2023

 

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Sapporo Mayor’s Re-election on Sunday a “substitute referendum” ?
 

Maybe … if the Mayor is re-elected.

From Independent.co.uk:

“Sapporo has declined to call a public referendum over the Olympics, although the mayor's re-election could be touted as a substitute.

Public votes over staging the Olympics almost always fail.”

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I really wish Sapporo could host 2030 so SLC can get 2034 and we can move on, but as of right now it's pretty clear that the people of Sapporo aren't all that excited about the Games. If the pro-Olympics mayor wins, he really needs to do a referendum before restarting the bid. Ofc, if the anti-Olympic candidate wins then that pretty much ends the bid in its entirety.

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28 minutes ago, Bear said:

I really wish Sapporo could host 2030 so SLC can get 2034 and we can move on, but as of right now it's pretty clear that the people of Sapporo aren't all that excited about the Games. If the pro-Olympics mayor wins, he really needs to do a referendum before restarting the bid. Ofc, if the anti-Olympic candidate wins then that pretty much ends the bid in its entirety.

 

In an ideal world, Japan would get an Olympics not ruined by the pandemic and would get the celebration they should have had 3 summers ago.  But this is the IOC we're talking about and I doubt they're going to do anything to make hosting an Olympics more palatable for Japan.  Which is a darn shame because if Tokyo had gone well, they'd have more of an appetite for this and we could overlook that it'd be 3 out of 4 Winter Olympics in Asia.

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8 hours ago, AustralianFan said:

Correct, opnion polls showed support around 65% in Brisbane, which is not the case in Sapporo.

But, if the pro-Olympics Mayor is re-elected on Sunday with a majority and then restarts the Bid, you have to wonder how positively the IOC Future Host Commission then views this in terms of Sapporo’s chances of elevation to Targeted Dialogue.

One important box would also have just been ticked as far as the government support for the bid since the newly re-elected Mayor leads the Sapporo Government.

For the Future Host Commission to make a recommendation to the IOC EB to elevate Sapporo to Targeted Dialogue for 2030, it would need to base it on an interpretation that would read something like this:  

the majority of voters in Sapporo have indicated their support for hosting the 2030 Olympics by choosing to elect the only Mayoral candidate who supports l0Sapporo hosting the Games.

Yes, it’s a stretch …. but stranger things have happened.  It depends too on how desperate  the IOC Future Host Commission are to recommend Sapporo as the preferred bidder for 2030.

Food for thought anyway.   Sunday’s election result in Sapporo will be keenly watched.

This is an election for mayor  not a referendum on an Olympic bid. NYT just had an article that Akimoto is likely to win re-election but that doesn't mean the bid is suddenly back on. A possible Olympic bid is a factor but it's not the deciding factor in this race  for local residents ( that's likely inflation or some other economic issue). If recent polls are accurate, public support is lacking and that is not changing because a pro-Olympics mayor likely wins.

Here is a little political history for you. In democracies, politicians who push forward with government projects programs, or new policies that are not favored by the majority of the population don't fare too well so of Akimoto pressed onward he'd be committing political suicide.

A bit of speculation and what ifs here  but for argument's sake, let's just say Akimoto wins re-election and Sapporo is awarded 2030 yet opinion numbers are still underwater. Akimoto loses in the next election to a candidate promising to give the Olympics back and you have Denver Part II. Last year one of the mayoral candidates (Takano i think) promised of he was elexted after Sapporo had been awarded 2030 that he wouldn't renounce the city's hosting rights.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, stryker said:

This is an election for mayor  not a referendum on an Olympic bid. NYT just had an article that Akimoto is likely to win re-election but that doesn't mean the bid is suddenly back on. A possible Olympic bid is a factor but it's not the deciding factor in this race  for local residents ( that's likely inflation or some other economic issue). If recent polls are accurate, public support is lacking and that is not changing because a pro-Olympics mayor likely wins.

Here is a little political history for you. In democracies, politicians who push forward with government projects programs, or new policies that are not favored by the majority of the population don't fare too well so of Akimoto pressed onward he'd be committing political suicide.

A bit of speculation and what ifs here  but for argument's sake, let's just say Akimoto wins re-election and Sapporo is awarded 2030 yet opinion numbers are still underwater. Akimoto loses in the next election to a candidate promising to give the Olympics back and you have Denver Part II. Last year one of the mayoral candidates (Takano i think) promised of he was elexted after Sapporo had been awarded 2030 that he wouldn't renounce the city's hosting rights.

 

 

Intriguing, nonetheless.

How legally binding is an Host City Contract ?

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8 minutes ago, stryker said:

This is an election for mayor  not a referendum on an Olympic bid. NYT just had an article that Akimoto is likely to win re-election but that doesn't mean the bid is suddenly back on. A possible Olympic bid is a factor but it's not the deciding factor in this race  for local residents ( that's likely inflation or some other economic issue). If recent polls are accurate, public support is lacking and that is not changing because a pro-Olympics mayor likely wins.

Here is a little political history for you. In democracies, politicians who push forward with government projects programs, or new policies that are not favored by the majority of the population don't fare too well so of Akimoto pressed onward he'd be committing political suicide.

A bit of speculation and what ifs here  but for argument's sake, let's just say Akimoto wins re-election and Sapporo is awarded 2030 yet opinion numbers are still underwater. Akimoto loses in the next election to a candidate promising to give the Olympics back and you have Denver Part II. Last year one of the mayoral candidates (Takano i think) promised of he was elexted after Sapporo had been awarded 2030 that he wouldn't renounce the city's hosting rights.

 

You'd never know that by looking at Google.  I just did a search for "Sapporo mayor election" and the majority of the results point to stories about the 2030 Olympics.  So you're right, nothing is automatic based on the results, but clearly there are more than a few people who are linking the two.  And who knows if public sentiment in terms of the vote is related to his views on a potential Sapporo bid, regardless of what the polls say.

 

That all said, I knew it was a matter of time before someone made a Denver comparison.  And, as usual, completely miss the context of how that situation went down back in 1972 and why it's virtually impossible for it to be repeated.  To AF's point.. there are contracts.  You can't simply "give the Olympics back" as if a new mayor could get elected and simply tell the IOC they're not doing it anymore.  Aside from the amount of money they'll have committed by then, I sincerely doubt they would be several years into planning for an Olympics and simply say they're not capable of doing it.  That's the main reason they pressed forward with the 2020 Olympics.  They didn't want to express to the world they couldn't handle the assignment, even as many of their citizens no longer wanted to deal with the headache.  If it was that simple to call the whole thing off, it would have happened then.  But it didn't because the IOC held their feet to the fire.

 

The problems with Denver weren't simply about NIMBYism.  It was a poorly conceived plan that got worse over time as they tried to modify it.  That's why it was easy to defeat in a referendum.  I don't think there would be any question marks with Sapporo's ability to organize an Olympics.  Costs are obviously a different story, but they'll almost certainly have large investments from the private sector - namely Dentsu - who won't go away so quietly.  And you can be sure that the IOC will be aware of all this, so they'll cover their own asses to prevent any of this from happening.

 

For reference, we already had Denver Part II.. it was called "Boston 2024."  Those 2 circumstances are much more similar than what you're trying to imagine with Sapporo.

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