Sapporo 2030: Give them an offer they can't refuse with no bids involved

[Nacre]

1 hour ago, FYI said:

Yeah, sure. Just ask Ukraine how well that worked out for them.

That is precisely why Kazakhstan has even more incentive to host the winter Olympics now than they did in 2014. Planning a future winter games in Almaty wouldn't stop Russian tanks from crossing the border, but it would improve Kazakhstan's prestige and ability to cooperate with other partners like Beijing and New Delhi; and Putin absolutely cannot afford sanctions from the USA, EU and China all at once.

That said, I agree that the IOC doesn't want Almaty if they have another viable alternative.

[stryker]

On 1/8/2023 at 5:34 PM, Sir Rols said:

I don’t think it’s too hyperbolic to say the OC is facing a crisis with the Winter Games, and it’s not climate change that’s the immediate wory.

As much of an issue as climate change is, IMO that was a convenient excuse for the IOC to cover for the fact that they were holding out hope that either the BC government would have a change of heart and fund a Vancouver bid or the bribery scandal would pass and Sapporo's poll numbers would improve. Neither has happened so now the IOC has one candidate ready to go and that candidate is less than enthusiastic. At this point, SLC can extract whatever demands they want of the IOC, and frankly, given the fact that the mess of 2030 is their own fault, SLC should milk this for every dollar they can get.

On 1/9/2023 at 10:38 AM, StefanMUC said:

Quick reminder that Fencing 1976 was Japan‘s most hated man two years ago. People don‘t forget that easily…

It also didn't help the fact that an independent audit recently revealed the folks at Tokyo lied about the true costs of the Olympics.

17 hours ago, Nacre said:

The problem for Vancouver is that cost of living in the city has gone up tremendously since they won the 2003 bid to host the 2010 games.

 

I've mentioned the cost of living crisis and next to distrust of the IOC, I'd say it's the number one factor working against prospective bidders right now and no amount of talk about cost savings and how great the Olympics are are going to change that especially with the IMF predicting one third of the world will go into a recession this year.

[Sir Rols]

7 minutes ago, stryker said:

As much of an issue as climate change is, IMO that was a convenient excuse for the IOC to cover for the fact that they were holding out hope that either the BC government would have a change of heart and fund a Vancouver bid or the bribery scandal would pass and Sapporo's poll numbers would improve. Neither has happened so now the IOC has one candidate ready to go and that candidate is less than enthusiastic. At this point, SLC can extract whatever demands they want of the IOC, and frankly, given the fact that the mess of 2030 is their own fault, SLC should milk this for every dollar they can get.

Exactly. No-one’s downplaying the seriousness of climate change, but it had nothing to do with the ability of the IOC to attract bidders for 2030. It was a smokescreen for the fact all their options were looking dire and they’re hoping and praying some last-minute saviour could save their skins.

11 minutes ago, stryker said:

I've mentioned the cost of living crisis and next to distrust of the IOC, I'd say it's the number one factor working against prospective bidders right now and no amount of talk about cost savings and how great the Olympics are are going to change that especially with the IMF predicting one third of the world will go into a recession this year.

 It’s a hard enough sell for a summer games, but at least you can point to an aquatics centre, a skate park or a basketball court and say they’re going to get some community use after the games. But the snow facilities are just one more step elitist. How do you sell to a population that a new jumping hill or sliding track out in the middle of nowhere is going to be of benefit to the grassroots community? Outside of perhaps Canada and Scandinavian, you’re asking the population to fund future playgrounds for the well heeled.

[Quaker2001]

If LA2028 wasn't on the calendar, we're probably not having this discussion now and SLC would have almost certainly been elevated to targeted dialouge by now.  Yet here we are.  I have a hard time believing that the IOC is going to pull a bid out of nowhere and pick them over a sure bet US host city (where again, the only issue is over money and how it meshes with a Summer Olympics in LA).  The longer they wait, the less time they have to get a city prepared.  Salt Lake can do that a lot more easily and painlessly than Sapporo can

[FYI]

At this point, though, it's not about the IOC picking another (savior) bid over SLC . It's about them, much preferably, finding someone else to give 2030 to (as to not have to make those monetary concessions to the USOC & SLC), so they can then give 2034 to SLC (which is what the USOC has preferred anyway). Since as you said, SLC can, for the most part, do this pretty much with their eyes closed. If it wasn't for LA'28 & the fact that the IOC is having a tough time finding someone else that's reliable (other than SLC), we'd more than likely would be seeing a double-allocation at this point. Or at the very least, 'two cities' in 'targeted dialog' by now. 

[Quaker2001]

58 minutes ago, FYI said:

At this point, though, it's not about the IOC picking another (savior) bid over SLC . It's about them, much preferably, finding someone else to give 2030 to (as to not have to make those monetary concessions to the USOC & SLC), so they can then give 2034 to SLC (which is what the USOC has preferred anyway). Since as you said, SLC can, for the most part, do this pretty much with their eyes closed. If it wasn't for LA'28 & the fact that the IOC is having a tough time finding someone else that's reliable (other than SLC), we'd more than likely would be seeing a double-allocation at this point. Or at the very least, 'two cities' in 'targeted dialog' by now. 

So what does the IOC reasonably expect to happen here?  How many times have we said that the IOC can't "find" a bid and they can only choose the ones that have presented themselves.  Sapporo's support numbers are extremely damning, so that's a big problem.  Who knows what's happening with Vancouver, so can they expect a turn-around there?  Is the hope another bid may be out there worth the trouble over awarding 2030 to Salt Lake, even knowing the USOPC would like to wait for 2034?

At some point, it feels like the IOC may just have to accept that Salt Lake is their only option for 2030, deal with the consequences, and put their energies into finding a 2034 candidate rather than trying to pull one out of thin air for 2030

[FYI]

49 minutes ago, Quaker2001 said:

So what does the IOC reasonably expect to happen here?  How many times have we said that the IOC can't "find" a bid and they can only choose the ones that have presented themselves.

At some point, it feels like the IOC may just have to accept that Salt Lake is their only option for 2030, deal with the consequences, and put their energies into finding a 2034 candidate rather than trying to pull one out of thin air for 2030

It's like you said the other day, the IOC is just kicking the can down the road by delaying the 2030 decision. And with the new-norm now, they can "find" a bid, per se. Cause they're more in control of the bid process than they ever were before. Their hope now, it looks like, is to do a double-allocation of this thing & then move on. They mentioned, when was that, earlier this month or late last month, that a double was definitely in the picture, at least in terms of looking at it, after Bach said last summer that it wasn't in the cards (remember that).

Of course the IOC at some point, has to accept reality, & perhaps bite-the-bullet already with SLC 2030. But as also has been said around here many times, this is still the IOC we're talking about here. And accepting reality is not one of their strong suits. Stubbornness is, though.

 

[Sir Rols]

5 hours ago, FYI said:

It's like you said the other day, the IOC is just kicking the can down the road by delaying the 2030 decision. And with the new-norm now, they can "find" a bid, per se. Cause they're more in control of the bid process than they ever were before. Their hope now, it looks like, is to do a double-allocation of this thing & then move on. They mentioned, when was that, earlier this month or late last month, that a double was definitely in the picture, at least in terms of looking at it, after Bach said last summer that it wasn't in the cards (remember that).

Of course the IOC at some point, has to accept reality, & perhaps bite-the-bullet already with SLC 2030. But as also has been said around here many times, this is still the IOC we're talking about here. And accepting reality is not one of their strong suits. Stubbornness is, though.

 

You honestly think a double allocation is still on the cards? It might have been a possibility a month ago, before Sapporo flatlined, but now surely it’s moot. The ideal double allocation would still be someone new for 2030 so SLC could slot into 2034, but then we’re back as to who the IOC could pull out of their arse quick smart that would be willing and able to take that slot. And even if we’re talking about 2034, it’s not like the two thirds of Hokkaidans opposed to 2030 would change their minds if it was for 2034, or the BC Provincial Government would likely over-ride their funding decision for a latter hosting. And it would still need to be worked out within the next year or so.

I’d say he double allocation bird has flown.

Edited January 11, 2023 by Sir Rols

[Quaker2001]

1 hour ago, FYI said:

It's like you said the other day, the IOC is just kicking the can down the road by delaying the 2030 decision. And with the new-norm now, they can "find" a bid, per se. Cause they're more in control of the bid process than they ever were before. Their hope now, it looks like, is to do a double-allocation of this thing & then move on. They mentioned, when was that, earlier this month or late last month, that a double was definitely in the picture, at least in terms of looking at it, after Bach said last summer that it wasn't in the cards (remember that).

Of course the IOC at some point, has to accept reality, & perhaps bite-the-bullet already with SLC 2030. But as also has been said around here many times, this is still the IOC we're talking about here. And accepting reality is not one of their strong suits. Stubbornness is, though.

Why on Earth is this still about a double?  This is a multi-billion dollar venture we're talking about here.  Not a high school guy looking for a prom date.  Pretty hard to "find" a bid when nearly the entire world has shown total disinterest.  And for all that we've talked about how the list of "interested" candidates for the 2036 Summer Olympics is not as long as it seems, at least those are engaged countries.  That doesn't exist here.

Yes, they did say a double is still in the picture.  That was before the latest numbers on Sapporo came out and made it increasingly unlikely they can turn things around.  We can keep saying how out of touch and unpredictable the IOC is, but it doesn't matter how much control they have of the bid process if no one else wants to participate in it.  And the later they go, the more the lead time to 2030 shrinks and makes it that much more difficult for any region to get ready. 

If they don't make this decision until 2025, who else can get up to speed in time?  Looking at prior hosts and bids, is Stockholm dusting off their plans?  Norway jumping back in?  Presuming Vancouver doesn't have their act together, they're out.  PyeongChang no.  Sochi clearly no.  So that just about eliminates any other past host in the prior 50 years from consideration.  Who else does the IOC think might have any shot?  Especially since part of the new norm is about sustainability and going to a place that has facilities ready to go and doesn't have to build.

[StefanMUC]

4 hours ago, Quaker2001 said:

Who else does the IOC think might have any shot?  Especially since part of the new norm is about sustainability and going to a place that has facilities ready to go and doesn't have to build.

Germany could of course pull this off facilities-wise, but DOSB already refused this idea after the latest IOC decision to reopen the door. Plus, obviously, public opinion.

[FYI]

5 hours ago, Sir Rols said:

You honestly think a double allocation is still on the cards?

 

4 hours ago, Quaker2001 said:

Why on Earth is this still about a double? 

That's not what I'm saying at all. Yes, Sapporo, along with Vancouver, have taken major tumbles. Both of those developments, though, have been very recent, particularly with Sapporo. But how long is it going to take the IOC to acknowledge this reality & come to it's senses? One month? Two months? Six months? Next year, or in 2025?

That's what I meant when I said that the IOC is more in control of the process now, regardless if they have ten interested parties in 'continuous dialog' or *none*. They're still the ones that have to make the final move & anoint SLC if there truly is no one else left at this point to ponder about. 

5 hours ago, Sir Rols said:

I'd say he double allocation bird has flown.

 

4 hours ago, Quaker2001 said:

If they don't make this decision until 2025, who else can get up to speed in time?  

Which is precisely what I meant when I went on to say, "accepting reality is not one of the IOC's strong suits. *Stubbornness* is, though (even if, no kidding, we are talking about a 'multi-billion dollar venture'). 

[TorchbearerSydney]

I have been to Almaty- its a fantastic city, and Kazakhstan is a huge and rich country. They would host a great Games.

But as we say, it is not a A+ risk free choice.

[Quaker2001]

7 hours ago, FYI said:

That's not what I'm saying at all. Yes, Sapporo, along with Vancouver, have taken major tumbles. Both of those developments, though, have been very recent, particularly with Sapporo. But how long is it going to take the IOC to acknowledge this reality & come to it's senses? One month? Two months? Six months? Next year, or in 2025?

That's what I meant when I said that the IOC is more in control of the process now, regardless if they have ten interested parties in 'continuous dialog' or *none*. They're still the ones that have to make the final move & anoint SLC if there truly is no one else left at this point to ponder about. 

 

Which is precisely what I meant when I went on to say, "accepting reality is not one of the IOC's strong suits. *Stubbornness* is, though (even if, no kidding, we are talking about a 'multi-billion dollar venture'). 

Given the unpredictability of the new norm process, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if completely out of nowhere we got an announcement that the IOC is ready to give the 2030 Olympics to Salt Lake.  Basically they all woke up 1 morning and were like "screw it, what choice do we have?"

I don't know if the IOC is making calls to any NOCs and begging them to engage with them.  Even in this new age, I'm not sure that's a tactic they can run with if those countries simply have zero interest.  And at this point, what's their incentive to come in and save the IOC?

We've known for awhile what they preferences of the Salt Lake organizers are as well as the USOPC.  And we've also repeatedly hear from both parties "we're ready for 2030 if you want to go that route."  It's certainly not an ideal solution, but it may be the only solution.  It's difficult to foresee a path where that's not the case.  As much of a headache as it's likely to cause, the longer they wait, the less likely it is that anyone else can come in and save the IOC's collective asses.

All that said, this feels like the last major decision Bach is going to make in his tenure.  So we can be pretty sure he's thinking about that, whether he wants to go out with this one.  Or leave it to the next president.  At which point, how could it be anything other than "SLC, come save us"

[FYI]

After this summer, the traditional lead-time for the Winter Olympics, of 6.5 years, will start to shrink. By Paris 2024 (which should be the extreme latest a decision should be delayed), that will be only 5.5 years left 'til February 2030. So if Bach would like to wait for the next president to deal with this (which would mean 2025), that ain't going to do them, nor SLC any favors. Since even for a well prepared city like SLC, five years or less to prep, is still cutting it very, very close. And by that point, only SLC will have to be the answer anyway. 

[iceman530]

Oh yeah.......If you're waiting that long SLC is your only option.  And if you're waiting that long, you should have told SLC a year ago as to not screw them.  Like you said, they could do it, but man it would be cutting it really........really close.  If you have no one else by summer of 2024 you gotta award it to SLC and give them that prep time, because at that point, no one else is going to put in a last minute bid to take it on anyways as they know theyd be screwing themselves by doing it.

[SportLightning]

Well. I think they may have Borjomi to host in case Sapporo and Salt Lake City bids for 2034.

[Quaker2001]

23 hours ago, FYI said:

After this summer, the traditional lead-time for the Winter Olympics, of 6.5 years, will start to shrink. By Paris 2024 (which should be the extreme latest a decision should be delayed), that will be only 5.5 years left 'til February 2030. So if Bach would like to wait for the next president to deal with this (which would mean 2025), that ain't going to do them, nor SLC any favors. Since even for a well prepared city like SLC, five years or less to prep, is still cutting it very, very close. And by that point, only SLC will have to be the answer anyway. 

I get why the IOC isn't ready to make any official announcements, but if Sapporo is trending completely in the wrong direction, I don't know how long they expect to wait.  Seems like the odds that they or Vancouver magically turns things around are growing worse by the day.  And since we all agree that the more time that passes, the more likely it is that their only option will be Salt Lake, hopefully they come to that realization sooner rather than later.  Which is one of the nice things about the new norm where they can make that announcement completely out of the blue and without warning if they want.

[AustralianFan]

Anniversary of 1972 Sapporo Olympic Winter Games

[stadecocks]

Not looking hugely promising then and guessing it's unlikely Nagano would step up again.    Would even Tokyo be a possibility for repurposed venues for the ice events if there is a mountain venue within range under the "Agenda 2020" rules, or is Tokyo just too curse now by the curse of the covid games?

[AustralianFan]

2 hours ago, stadecocks said:

Not looking hugely promising then and guessing it's unlikely Nagano would step up again.    Would even Tokyo be a possibility for repurposed venues for the ice events if there is a mountain venue within range under the "Agenda 2020" rules, or is Tokyo just too curse now by the curse of the covid games?

Cursed by the big and still unfolding bribery and sponsorship scandal by several Tokyo 2020 officials, several of whom have been arrested and charged.

Until that ugly episode broke, Sapporo were looking sweet for 2030, now majority public opinion in Japan and Sapporo has really soured towards the 2030 bid.  It looks terminal right now.

 

[AustralianFan]

2 hours ago, stadecocks said:

Not looking hugely promising then and guessing it's unlikely Nagano would step up again.    Would even Tokyo be a possibility for repurposed venues for the ice events if there is a mountain venue within range under the "Agenda 2020" rules, or is Tokyo just too curse now by the curse of the covid games?

 

Just now, AustralianFan said:

Cursed by the big and still unfolding bribery and sponsorship scandal by several Tokyo 2020 officials, several of whom have been arrested and charged.

Until that ugly episode broke, Sapporo were looking sweet for 2030, now majority public opinion in Japan and Sapporo has really soured towards the 2030 bid.  It looks terminal right now.

 

Nowhere in Japan do the Japanese people want the Olympics, not Nagano, not Tokyo, not Sapporo.

[FYI]

If Sapporo would only look it from an amortized angle. 

[iceman530]

The Olympic games in Japan are now like a cursed home of someone who died alone in a Japanese village.  Nobody (except westerners) want anything to do with that house

[SportLightning]

There's a lot of problems right now for Japan since not everybody in Japan wants to host the Olympics.

[stadecocks]

I have been to Almaty- its a fantastic city, and Kazakhstan is a huge and rich country. They would host a great Games. t tv

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