Sigh

Hello from the Wet Blanket again! I no longer have any hopes at all for WOG in Sweden in 2030. Actually I suspect that the SOK activities were only for securing a completely different selection: That of von Uthman’s to be chairman of SOK. Despite chairing the 2030 pre-study he won with a not exactly overwhelming 22-18 vote. Timeline: February: Big press conference for the launch March: Meeting held in Riga with LOK that was not pushed in Swedish media. LOK wanted bigger part which would have meant a more active participation and insight. The Sigulda track went completely cold after that April: Big press conference before the parasport annual meeting. May: SOK annual meeting. Von Uthman elected chairman. Very low-profile information about the bid. June: Low-profile presentation of the pre-study results. Looking closer at that, some notable aspects are revealed: Budget only a (happy) sketch, no serious contacts yet with those who must give guarantees. Sliding and skating oval venues up in the air. Blithely shoveling responsibility for accommodation upon the city/towns which in three cases isn’t impossible but patently ridiculous in the case of Falun. Timeplan: Finished bid in November (and then evaluated by government etc) when the French time-plan is for late September. Still with the caveat that it must fulfill the three conditions of no public cost (excluding security), no environmental effect and ethical (Nice exit options) July: Absolutely nothing August: Going through the motions in a lukewarm way in response to regional initiative from Dalarna and, later, another from Swedish skating. In all this time next to no effort to create a positive buzz. They appeared to be shocked to learn that people expected there to be a reason to have the games. They finally came up with “campfire”. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I have checked around in my “bubble” and some others as well. WOG is an absolute non-issue. I have not heard a single person bring it up (apart from myself). Sir Rols’ relatives may have another view though. There is not even a Swedish Wikipedia page for the 2030 games. That also answer the question why no other opinion polls have been made. Media commission them for commercial reasons. No interest => No reason to commission any polling. In February the probability was low but not non-existent. Some factors had to line up: · * No other bidders · * Concerted hard work from SOK to shape public opinion · * Luck None of that has come true. Luck has been against SOK: - - Economic downturn in Sweden. The only sliding event that concerns the government at present is that of the Swedish Krona - - Milano-Cortina ****-up - - Security/Terrorism has become a hot topic in Sweden, We are now at level 4 out 5 in estimated threat level. I know that France’s bid is denigrated here but it still remains that the French time-plan will put them ahead of Sweden by months and that it’s all about politics. Macron wants it and he has shown a willingness to face down massive protests before.

If I understand you correctly protesters stormed a high-visibility and high status target to protest against the pension reform but not the games themselves?

To be a bit sarcastic towards the French (before you accuse me of being anti-French; I loved the two years I worked in Paris) I'd expect a Frenchman's surprised reaction to that to be "What has that do with the Winter Olympic Games?"

I've really said what I've had to say on the general WOG 2030 forum. To recap the essential point: This is in an early stage but potentially a winner. To really stick my neck out I'd rank the candidates in falling order of probability (as I personally see it today): 1 France's two regions 2 SLC 3 Stockholm etc etc etc etc etc 4 New Jack-in-the-box candidate 5 Sapporo 6 Vancouver 7 Switzerland Why? Politics, politics, politics!

I'm not surprised. With "Stockholm" and "Switzerland" uncertain I'm not surprised that IOC is pushing the French for an early candidature. Besides, from a strict business point of view France is preferable to IOC as well. I've reconsidered the time aspect. The time available is comparable to the Milano-Cortina 2026 bid. Both regions have done a lot of work already and if I remember correctly someone here might have mentioned that the new procedure speeds up the process. The pre-study will inevitably conclude that the games can be held without any public money added, they always do (cf the SOK preliminary conclusion). Given that Macron appears to be at least enthusiastic about the bid I can't see someone higher placed putting the lid on the bid. What could stop it is local popular opposition and bickering between the regions. Thank you for the article. I had missed that one when scanning French websites.

I agree abouot the time aspect. They are only just starting their pre-study. Otherwise I'd be cautious about judging French culture from my own point of view. What I and many here would consider obvious is not necessarily considered the same way by others. Unfortunately the only way of proving or disproving this in this case is to wait as far as I can see. Rectfication: I said dinner in Palais d'Élysée was planned. Apparently it's lunch today with all the relevant bigwigs. Please note that there is engagement not only from the sports side but also from the relevant political side yet to be seen in Sweden or Switzerland. Will this lead to a serious bid and games in France in 2030? Qui vivra verra.

I'm not a logistics expert but my impression is that the poorish transport in the north is less due to basic infrastructure than on business considerations when it comes to train frequency and to a certain degree roads. In both cases there would be time do to some improvements if necessary. Transport time would still be a problem though. There are quite long distances. Despite the greenish tint on the bid (temporary) air transport would get an important role.

Personally I think this should be taken very seriously. The political culture in France is very different from Switzerland or Sweden. "Grand Projets" excite people instead of putting them off. Instead of political problems being a block to an Olympic bid in France it can be used to deflect political discontent into nationalistic fervor. Dinner in Palais d'Élysée is scheduled with the president and the regional leaders to discuss this. Anyway by mid-September there should be a "dossier" ready as a basis for continued efforts or not. Actually there will be two "dossiers". Another for 2034/2038 as well. Did I mention earlier that I wouldn't be surprised if there'd be a "Jack-in-the-box" box bid snatching the price from SOK again?

Presumably that would be on straight business rental level without any organiser financial responsibility.

Just had a look at Italian websites. The skyrocketing costs is only the minor problem. The big problem is that it's doubtful that some venues, such as for sliding and iceskating, will be finished in time. So perhaps skating will be in Turin, sliding in St Moritz and doping tests analyzed in Cologne and Lausanne.

Just a few reminders: It's really SOK bidding for the 2030 games. That's a main difference from SLC, Vancouver and Sapporo. However, it's the same situation as the Swiss Olympic rumblings. China is much simpler, there there's only one level of decisionmaking. Stockholm city is pointedly non-committal waiting for the government's decision about guarantees. (Besides, given the distributed character of the concept it would be more appropriate to call it Sweden 2030, or possibily Scandinavia 2030, than Stockholm 2030) On the positive side for SOK their concept is possibly the one requiring least time to implement. The problem is the will.

He keeps playing his petty little games. Now with an extra delay. However, he risks over-playing his hand.

This probably means that Erdogan will get his F-16s. The part about reopening talks with EU is just for show. Erdogan has just shown why Turkey can't be let in into an organisation where all or some decisions have to be unaminous. But it gives him political points at home. As for Stockholm 2030: If you hear anything before November, when the budget should be "finished", it's bad news for SOK.

At the end of the second, but not necessarily the last, Trump presidential mandate? (Consitutions can be changed)

Don't take me seriously today. Not in a good mood. So here we go. Given the rusophilia leanings of the IOC the contrary would be more likely. Depends on how much the Swedish government folds for Erdogan. The more they give to him the more Orban will expect. At least Sweden isn't the EU chair any longer which reduces the potential bounty for Orban. I had been a strong supporter for Swedish NATO membership since my tween years. That was when becoming a member was a defence of democracy and not a means for an autocrat to impose non-democratic measures.

Not the NATO issue by itself but the political fall-out connected to it may have an impact. A lesson to be learned: Burning a Quran, however silly to do it, does not necessarily have to mean that much as long as no muslim leaders don't see political gain from it.

In a certain way I envy those less cynical than I when it comes to face value of peripheral politicians' statements that at closer scrutiny are devoid of any real commitment. Of course I'm even more peripheral

The new process changes how selection is done including, not unimportantly, the speed and scrutiny. However, the new process does not change the basic conditions for producing games in any significant way. Any city/region contemplating hosting the games will still have to consider financial risks, including megalomania, and other difficulties and weigh that against perceived benefits. To clarify: When I said that things are not looking bad for SOK I meant it relatively. Personally I think that SOK will land the project is at least twice as likely now as when they started in February. Of course, then I estimated the probability to less than 1%.

Things are not looking bad for SOK. However, there are many, many hurdles still to be cleared. None of them by itself unsurmontable. Money is the first. As SOK themselves declare there is no detailed budget yet. Not expected until November. The second is the size of the security apparatus needed. In particular since Sweden forbids the use of military for police tasks. There is the capacity but very hard choices as to what policing to neglect will be necessary for that. IOC playing footsie with Putin et al. Yes, this DOES matter in Sweden. I have to admit that I'm surprised that the Left and Green parties have abonded their outright negative position. On the other hand I have too much political experience to give much credence to the typical political statements that highlights one or two positive aspects while committing to nothing. Such "support" is soft. Here the SOK poll, manipulative as it was, is having an effect. That could change quickly with poll(s), possibly just as manipulative, showing strong opposition. Then of course there is always the "Jack in the Box" risk: A latecoming bid from an unexpected candidate. That has happened before.

I wouldn't expect to hear anything of substance before November now. Government representatives might come with some positive sounding but non-commital statements. Otherwise they'll wait for a budget with some substance. SOK, judging from earlier behaviour, will not engage with public opinion that much. What might come is a media outlet commissoning an opinion poll. However, in that case it'd most likely already have been done. I have still to see any NOlympics movement. Probably because so few truly believe that SOK's bid will succeed this time after so many failed attempts.

According to Swedish Television there is "strong" support for Stockholm 2030 among politicians. I.e. while no party has expressed any explicit support no party is categorically against WOGs in Sweden 2030. ALL of them now take a wait and see atittude. At present they wait for a more than a budget sketch to be presented. Probably end October or early November. That is after the Mumbai meeting.

You can't accuse the IOC of pandering to Swedish public opinion. Former (?) Russian army officer Jelena Isinbajeva (Swedish translitteration) to retain her place in the IOC.

Tokyo: None to minimal since there is no coverage of it. Paris: Too early to say. One problem with OGs is that there is a lot of money in motion within an environment with hard dead-lines and where money is regarded as secondary to producing a great show. Add to that that the organisers will just walk away anyway after the games. No wonder that control may be weak.

To bring some good news: SOK expects just over 10 billion SEK which would translate into around 900 MUSD

Here's the wet blanket again! On the positive side the conditions vis-à-vis IOC are definitely more favorable. When it comes to political support, unfortunately not. Which says quite a lot since the national government security guarantee came very late and Stockholm refused to sign the agreement last time. SOK had tiny Åre to do it instead. So strictly speaking the 2026 bid wasn't Stockholm 2026 but Åre 2026. Social Democrats are generally considered to be more favorable to WOGs than the centre right. Last time Social Democrats were in power nationally and centre-right locally. Now it's the reverse so it's not possible to by-pass the centre-right this time. Add to that some extra complications with Greens, Left and nationalist populists who are all against WOGs. Even the Social Democrats in Stockholm are not prepared to shoulder the entire guarantee and demand that the tightfisted national government should take all or at least a major part of the risk. In 2018/9 the economy was going strong. In 2018/9 there were no strong feelings about Russian participations in OGs. This may surprise many but it's something that is a very strong emotional issue in Sweden. The biggest chocolate maker in Sweden, and one of the absolutely strongest brands overall, is going down the drain at present. Not because they are doing business with Russia themselves but because the multinational that owns them still have production in Russia. So the question is whether the positive can outweigh the negative. I sure wish that the SOK was less supine towards the IOC. Ironically that would benefit the IOC as well.