ofan Posted June 6, 2013 Report Share Posted June 6, 2013 Nobody's saying they will. They've got to present one that will get the tick of confidence from the IOC technical evaluators before they can get anywhere. That's probably their biggest task, and the stage they're going to be under the most critical scrutiny. But if they can get on the shortlist, if the tech guys are satisfied, then they've got such a strong emotional pull and platform to play on - more than making up for all those "they can't win at their first attempt" dismissals that come up here. Well, we saw how in 2016 Rio barely got shortlisted and had the worst technical eval score of the cities shortlisted, and they won. So I think the shortlist will be a bigger hurdle for Durban then actually getting the games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Rols Posted June 6, 2013 Report Share Posted June 6, 2013 Well, we saw how in 2016 Rio barely got shortlisted and had the worst technical eval score of the cities shortlisted, and they won. Exactly, that's the same sort of emotional appeal Durban would have. And they might have barely made it, but they still shortlisted - that was a huge indication of they're confidence in their viability while showing also where the IOC were excited about going to. A Durban plan isn't going to make the shortlist if it isn't up to technical snuff. Nobody here is saying or would expect that. I think considering the facilities they already have in place, however, that it is achievable, though. And if they were deemed as viable to host - well, it's got a strong emotional chord to pull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofan Posted June 6, 2013 Report Share Posted June 6, 2013 Exactly, that's the same sort of emotional appeal Durban would have. And they might have barely made it, but they still shortlisted - that was a huge indication of they're confidence in their viability while showing also where the IOC were excited about going to. A Durban plan isn't going to make the shortlist if it isn't up to technical snuff. Nobody here is saying or would expect that. I think considering the facilities they already have in place, however, that it is achievable, though. And if they were deemed as viable to host - well, it's got a strong emotional chord to pull. I think they have a few universities there to. They could build some legacy venues for each school like Beijing did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted June 6, 2013 Report Share Posted June 6, 2013 Well, we saw how in 2016 Rio barely got shortlisted and had the worst technical eval score of the cities shortlisted, and they won. So I think the shortlist will be a bigger hurdle for Durban then actually getting the games. ya think? or u're hoping... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quaker2001 Posted June 6, 2013 Report Share Posted June 6, 2013 Exactly, that's the same sort of emotional appeal Durban would have. And they might have barely made it, but they still shortlisted - that was a huge indication of they're confidence in their viability while showing also where the IOC were excited about going to. A Durban plan isn't going to make the shortlist if it isn't up to technical snuff. Nobody here is saying or would expect that. I think considering the facilities they already have in place, however, that it is achievable, though. And if they were deemed as viable to host - well, it's got a strong emotional chord to pull. A lot of the folks saying they won't win on their first try are blindly looking at past precedent and saying that will be the case. I'm sure they'll even make that argument based on 2020 even though all 3 candidates are past bidders. The way I view Durban (and South Africa in general) is that if they bid for 2024 and the IOC looks at them and says this is the best they'll get out of them (assuming they're solid enough technically), they'll win it. If the IOC thinks that a little added experience and a 4 year wait will do them some good, they'll come back around the next time. Similar to Rio who bid twice, made the shortlist, and then had the backing of the 2007 Pan Am games to push them over the top. South Africa seems like they're in a similar situation. They'll either fail to make the short list or they'll win the whole thing. I don't think the IOC has an immediate rush to go to South Africa. They'll want to do it right rather than do it quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olympic Fan Darcy Posted June 6, 2013 Report Share Posted June 6, 2013 I wasn't even referring to you when I wrote that. As a matter of fact, you nor Brisbane weren't even on my radar. But I find it just as irritating that others write off the opinions about South Africa with the "they're not ready card" based on not very much. But your compatriot Runningrings has very level headed opinions on South Africa, yet you (& some others on here) always seem to offer nothing but the negative aspects on South Africa & never mind the good attributes. That "pisses me off" just as much, if not moreso. I'm absolutely sure Durban has great aspects to it like most cities. I'm merely stating that I personally think Paris would have to work a lot harder on a bid then Durban would. Yes or no? I mean look at 2016! Rio was the 3rd lowest ranking city in the evaluation. Tokyo almost beat them by 2 points in the evaluation phase yet never was a chance against Rio. If a city like Tokyo can't stand a chance against Rio what does Paris or Rome have against Durban the "final frontier" which I am almost certain would score lower in the evaluation phase than Paris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwissO Posted June 6, 2013 Report Share Posted June 6, 2013 Jacob Zuma, President of South Africa, said Tuesday that South Africa would be "very happy" if it became the first African nation to host the View the full article From what I could read... he never said "happy to bid for 2024" .... but "we will be happy if we could host in the future" !!! Slight difference .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olympic Fan Darcy Posted June 6, 2013 Report Share Posted June 6, 2013 Can't see Durban or Cape Town not being shortlisted. They got shortlisted for 2004. And it seems like many IOC members would love an African games so the evaluation is all that matters but even if they score low they might still get shortlisted e.g. Rio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Rols Posted June 6, 2013 Report Share Posted June 6, 2013 I'm absolutely sure Durban has great aspects to it like most cities. I'm merely stating that I personally think Paris would have to work a lot harder on a bid then Durban would. Yes or no? I mean look at 2016! Rio was the 3rd lowest ranking city in the evaluation. Tokyo almost beat them by 2 points in the evaluation phase yet never was a chance against Rio. If a city like Tokyo can't stand a chance against Rio what does Paris or Rome have against Durban the "final frontier" which I am almost certain would score lower in the evaluation phase than Paris. But that's the same in any cycle. It's not always, or even often, that the best technical bid wins. It's just that for many people, including many IOC members, the subjective and emotional factors are just as important as the technical factors. And by making the shortlist, the theory is that a bid is technically-certified anyway. It'd just be tough luck if a Paris (which itself has one of the strongest emotional appeals) has to face up against a city with the same or more emotional appeal. Just as it would be tough luck for the likes of a, say, Hamburg or Minneapolis, to face up against Paris, even if they were technically ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotguy Posted June 6, 2013 Report Share Posted June 6, 2013 I am getting a bit fed up with people on this site thinking that just because a city/country mentions the Olympic Games in a sentence that, that is it, it is bidding, winning the games, signed sealed and delivered, thank you mam, no need for a bid race. As far as i am concerned until South Africa or any other country submits a bid to the International Olympic Committee, then it is not in the running to host a games. The same with these predictions for the games up to the year 8250, unless a city actually submits a bid, can we please stop saying that such a year will go to this city and that city has to be that year etc. Until a city bids officially, then we do not know who will be in the running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runningrings Posted June 6, 2013 Report Share Posted June 6, 2013 I am getting a bit fed up with people on this site thinking that just because a city/country mentions the Olympic Games in a sentence that, that is it, it is bidding, winning the games, signed sealed and delivered, thank you mam, no need for a bid race. Nobody has said it is signed, sealed and delivered. If you're interpreting it as such, then you're reading into the discussion too much. This article mentions that SA is making very preliminary suggestions that it may bid on 2024 - as we all think it might. Everything starts somewhere. As far as i am concerned until South Africa or any other country submits a bid to the International Olympic Committee, then it is not in the running to host a games. The same with these predictions for the games up to the year 8250, unless a city actually submits a bid, can we please stop saying that such a year will go to this city and that city has to be that year etc. Until a city bids officially, then we do not know who will be in the running. Well, this is the GamesBids.com forums - so what you're criticising is the actual essence of this site. We discuss possibilities and make predictions - frankly, if you're sick of it, then don't open such threads. Simple. PS - I'm quite sure that Nagano will be a shoe in for 8250. I predict by then it won't have hosted since 8026. The ceremonies are bound to bore poor cryogenically frozen Baron to death - again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted June 6, 2013 Report Share Posted June 6, 2013 /\/\, runnings, y don't u just shut up -- u dipstick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athensfan Posted June 6, 2013 Report Share Posted June 6, 2013 Runnings, just FYI, it's "shoo-in" not "shoe in." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FYI Posted June 6, 2013 Report Share Posted June 6, 2013 It'd just be tough luck if a Paris (which itself has one of the strongest emotional appeals) has to face up against a city with the same or more emotional appeal. Just as it would be tough luck for the likes of a, say, Hamburg or Minneapolis, to face up against Paris, even if they were technically ahead. I like this analogy, since it puts it in another perspective that some people may be able to grasp better. Cuz you know that virtually everyone on these forums (except of course for those silly Minne cheerleaders that come in here from time to time) would be "Paris, Paris, PARIS!". Even though, hypothetically speaking, non-appealing Minneapolis were to have a better technical bid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reindeer Posted June 6, 2013 Report Share Posted June 6, 2013 And you think by putting up Johannesburg #1 where the players and spectators were wet and nearly freezing on that final night of World Cup 2010, will cut it? How did they get wet? By falling into a swimming pool? Weather wise, Johannesburg could maybe host in late August/early September, but of course the crime rate, missing stadium and high altitude are factors that don't favor it against Durban. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted June 6, 2013 Report Share Posted June 6, 2013 How did they get wet? Easily. I seem to remember that there were showers before and a little during the final match. .and mixed with the players' own sweat .= WET, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runningrings Posted June 6, 2013 Report Share Posted June 6, 2013 /\/\, runnings, y don't u just shut up -- u dipstick! Runnings, just FYI, it's "shoo-in" not "shoe in." Duly noted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Rols Posted June 6, 2013 Report Share Posted June 6, 2013 Well, for those questioning whether one politician's thoughts mean anything, it appears that SASCOC is on-board as well: SASCOC to bid for 2024 games Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Rols Posted June 6, 2013 Report Share Posted June 6, 2013 I like this analogy, since it puts it in another perspective that some people may be able to grasp better. Cuz you know that virtually everyone on these forums (except of course for those silly Minne cheerleaders that come in here from time to time) would be "Paris, Paris, PARIS!". Even though, hypothetically speaking, non-appealing Minneapolis were to have a better technical bid. Exactly! The thing is, of course, it's not like every bidding cycle is a level playing field. In every round, there's one who's chances are better than the others for emotional or rotational or whatever reasons, and the rest will always have to "work harder". And sometimes it "working harder" pays off. I remember when I first started posting here, and the arguments I'd have with various members claiming there was no point talking about the 2012 race - there was no way Paris could lose. It's funny, everybody likes the idea of moving the games around to new locations... until their "pet" city/hometown ends up bidding against a new frontier. Then (assuming they're banking their hopes of technical plan), they start yelling "unfair" and that the games should only be awarded to the ones who score the highest technical marks. Of course, they'd then be the first ones to complain if the games were only rotated between technically excellent cities in North America and Western Europe and everybody else was shut out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Rols Posted June 6, 2013 Report Share Posted June 6, 2013 I am getting a bit fed up with people on this site thinking that just because a city/country mentions the Olympic Games in a sentence that, that is it, it is bidding, winning the games, signed sealed and delivered, thank you mam, no need for a bid race. But that's what we do. Especially on the subject of South Africa. Like it or not, "will they or won't they?" with regards to South Africa, Paris and the USA is going to be among the main factors that determine the complexion of the 2024 race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athensfan Posted June 6, 2013 Report Share Posted June 6, 2013 But that's what we do. Especially on the subject of South Africa. Like it or not, "will they or won't they?" with regards to South Africa, Paris and the USA is going to be among the main factors that determine the complexion of the 2024 race. Would you go so far as to say that one of those three will host 2024? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Rols Posted June 6, 2013 Report Share Posted June 6, 2013 Would you go so far as to say that one of those three will host 2024? Just curious. Interesting question - I don't normally like predicting beyond the race immediately ahead (and I'm having a hard enough time trying to think who might win 2020!). But, hmmm, I think there's a good chance it would be one of those three provided they entered (and depending on if they enter and who the USA nominates). And for the record, I wouldn't rule Toronto out either. Again, depending on the competition, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gangwon Posted June 6, 2013 Report Share Posted June 6, 2013 Well, for those questioning whether one politician's thoughts mean anything, it appears that SASCOC is on-board as well: SASCOC to bid for 2024 games Great news! Anything to liven up the next bidding cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olympic Fan Darcy Posted June 7, 2013 Report Share Posted June 7, 2013 Interesting question - I don't normally like predicting beyond the race immediately ahead (and I'm having a hard enough time trying to think who might win 2020!). But, hmmm, I think there's a good chance it would be one of those three provided they entered (and depending on if they enter and who the USA nominates). And for the record, I wouldn't rule Toronto out either. Again, depending on the competition, of course. Interesting question - I don't normally like predicting beyond the race immediately ahead (and I'm having a hard enough time trying to think who might win 2020!). But, hmmm, I think there's a good chance it would be one of those three provided they entered (and depending on if they enter and who the USA nominates). And for the record, I wouldn't rule Toronto out either. Again, depending on the competition, of course. Paris v Durban with Toronto and USA being the underdogs? and the 5th city (if there are several bids) possibly Istanbul or Madrid. With most likely Doha to bid. Should be a much better bid race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reindeer Posted June 7, 2013 Report Share Posted June 7, 2013 Easily. I seem to remember that there were showers before and a little during the final match. .and mixed with the players' own sweat .= WET, isn't it? Quite unlikely as it very rarely rains in July. This information doesn't seem to back up your claim either: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/FAOR/2010/7/11/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA&MR=1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47yOv3MS20M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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