2020: Who's the Frontrunner?

[Galandar]

Galander, Azerbajian is TOO small to support a full Summer Olympics. Do you have like 30-40 well-equipped campuses to host the top 30-40 summer teams as training camps?? You should face the facts from the start.

We built more than 30 Olympic sport complexes with each having indoor arenas (2-3 thousand seats), swimming pools, tennis courts and football fields thorough the country only in few years. Then I am not talking about other sport venues we built, we build and we will build until 2020. You guys get some outdated internet information and underrate us very much. I beieve Baku has all the chances to be at least shortlisted in May.

[baron-pierreIV]

We built more than 30 Olympic sport complexes with each having indoor arenas (2-3 thousand seats), swimming pools, tennis courts and football fields thorough the country only in few years. Then I am not talking about other sport venues we built, we build and we will build until 2020. You guys get some outdated internet information and underrate us very much. I beieve Baku has all the chances to be at least shortlisted in May.

Buildings all the stadia in the world isn't the answer, Galander. Those training bases are FULL campuses where the athletes can be housed before they move into the Olympic Village. And what will your country of 8 million do with 80 stadia? I mean just look at Greece today! You should be realistic.

Maybe Baku is better off hosting a World Expo instead. That might have MORE positive, long-lsting effects on your country than a mere 2/4 week sports festival.

[Galandar]

Buildings all the stadia in the world isn't the answer, Galander. What will your country of 8 million do with 80 stadia? I mean just look at Greece today! You should be realistic. Maybe Baku is better off hosting a World Expo instead. That might have MORE positive, long-lsting effects on your country.

Then tell me what is all this agonia of the same countries trying to get this and other big events over and over? Why should I say yes to Spain which got its Olympics only some 20 years ago? Are there no more countries in the world?

[deawebo]

Madrid-Tokyo is the new race... Istanbul mmm... Will wait to see how serious is their plan... Doha and Baku darkhorses

The 2016 runner up, and thrid place batteling against each other to win 2020 ironic

[baron-pierreIV]

Then tell me what is all this agonia of the same countries trying to get this and other big events over and over? Why should I say yes to Spain which got its Olympics only some 20 years ago? Are there no more countries in the world?

Madrid is self-delusional. But, hey, it's their (and your) money.

[Galandar]

Maybe Baku is better off hosting a World Expo instead. That might have MORE positive, long-lsting effects on your country than a mere 2/4 week sports festival.

For now we are quite busy with ESC and FIFA U-17 Women's Word Cup both happening this year. Then there is Baku 2020 bid. So no time for other bids yet I am sure we will prepare for other kind of global events too

Madrid is self-delusional. But, hey, it's their (and your) money.

In our case this is our money, our plans and our goal. Dreams will never come true unless you try to realize them

[deawebo]

This new 2020 scenario might help Paris or Berlin for 2024, if either Istanbul or Tokyo win... Hasta la vista South Africa!!

[baron-pierreIV]

In our case this is our money, our plans and our goal. Dreams will never come true unless you try to realize them

Yeah but for things like this...you have to be realistic. Not unless you want to be the NEW foolish Madrid.

This new 2020 scenario might help Paris or Berlin for 2024, if either Istanbul or Tokyo win... Hasta la vista South Africa!!

Nope. Unless they change their timetable, 2024 is all but Durban's. Don't count on Paris. Our French members say presently there is NO interest from Paris.

[deawebo]

Berlin's strong... (considering Munich doesn't bids) as i've said Durban will not win on their first try... Neither Rio, or Pyeongchang (new frontiers) win on their first try.... I bet Paris wants the centennial games between 1924-2024... They might have interest by 2015

[SwissO]

Yeah but for things like this...you have to be realistic. Not unless you want to be the NEW foolish Madrid.

Nope. Unless they change their timetable, 2024 is all but Durban's. Don't count on Paris. Our French members say presently there is NO interest from Paris.

No 2024 is not for Durban ! Except if they are not awarded the 2018 YOG... but if as South African NOC wants it, they bid for the 2018 YOG, they will get them... as a first time the Olympics will come to Africa !!!

So impossible for them to bid for the 2024 games before the 2018 YOG....

So 2020 is for Asia (Tokyo), 2024 for Europe (Paris, Rome, Berlin/Hambourg, and once again Madrid ! or Even Istanbul if we could consider it in Europe) & 2028 for Africa (South Africa or Morroco !)

[baron-pierreIV]

So impossible for them to bid for the 2024 games before the 2018 YOG....

When Rio won 2016 with a 2014 WC only on paper; and desert-blind Doha buying WC 2022; anything is possible. 2018 to 2024 gives Durban much more breathing room than the 2014-2016 timetable of Brazil and Rio. I'd say if Durban gets the 2018 YOGs, they may not even need the 2022 CWGs...in the march to a 2024 SOGs.

[SwissO]

When Rio won 2016 with a 2014 WC only on paper; and desert-blind Doha buying WC 2022; anything is possible. 2018 to 2024 gives Durban much more breathing room than the 2014-2016 timetable of Brazil and Rio. I'd say if Durban gets the 2018 YOGs, they may not even need the 2022 CWGs...in the march to a 2024 SOGs.

Yes, but those events are not Olympic ones, and regarding Rio, their access card to the olympics was the 2007 PanAm games...

[alphamale86]

I was going to start a thread about the Implications of Rome dropping out on the 2024 race but thought you all might thick it was too soon. Well I see you all proved me wrong.

I actually think 2024 is going to be massively competitive. I think Europe is definitely going to miss out on 2020 thus putting them in the hunt for 2024, Africa will be there as well, and we all seem to be forgetting about North America if the US doesn't want it Canada sure does. I really think these three continents would all be slugging it out for 2024.

To Baron's point about the Paris not showing interest. I say It's an election year in France, the EU is in bad shape no one wants to discuss bidding for an Olympics just yet. However I bet your bottom dollar that they will try for their Centenary of the 1924 games.

as i've said Durban will not win on their first try

Africa is such a different story. People really want to hand stuff to the continent it is always the last to host anything so I feel really after Rio got it the IOC will hand it to them especially after the bizzarrely boring race 2020 is turning out to be.

[FYI]

SwissO, memorabilia, FYI, mattygs, Sir Rols, stark, what do you say now?

Well, this latest, disappointing development only enhances Tokyo's chances. I'm sure now, the Italian IOC members will shift their support outside of Europe so they can maybe launch a bid later on where they might have a chance geographically. But I also think, like Mario Pesconte said right after the newly elected PM's final decision, "that this is a lost opportunity". Had Burlesconi still been the PM, the Rome 2020 bid would've marched on.

A lot on here are saying that this was "wise" of Rome & that Madrid is "soon to follow". The thing is, both Rome & Madrid are both capable of hosting the 2020 Olympic Games. They weren't/aren't proposing Beijing & Sochi-style grandiose extravaganzas. They were/are proposing sustainble Games with many of the venues already in place. And I felt that this was a perfect opportunity of the IOC to finally put some "skin in this game" when they talk about keeping the Games in check but hardly ever do.

With that said, Rome's withdrawal was mostly an appeasement for those who were saying that financial prudence was more important than some 3-week sports party. That doesn't automatically translate that they couldn't host, same goes for Madrid. Austerity measures was simply the name of the game on the Italian agenda today & had nothing to say of Rome's/Italy's capabilities. It's like anything else in life, when all of the sudden, things are tight, does one go & splurge on that new car that they want? Does that necessarily that they "can't" purchase it? No, it doesn't. It just simply means that perhaps they "shouldn't". Two totally different things.

As for the short-list, I can agree with both sides of the coin. I've said before that the IOC may include all 6 applicants as an "insurance policy" so they can have something in the back-burner just in case. But I can also agree that the Executive Board could still cut some more, come May, so they can just concentrate & keep things less cumbersome than dealing with bids that have no chance anyway. Madrid, Tokyo & Istanbul aren't "all" dropping out. That's an ausurd notion anyway. The IOC doesn't "have" to pick 5 now that Rome is gone. For 2016, they picked only 4. So I can't see it go either way.

As for Istanbul, using Middle East conflicts against them is a non-starter. I don't see how these things "only" would effect them, but not Baku or Doha. If the Middle East starts to become very unstable

... then the whole region is a blaze & not just Turkey.

[Sir Rols]

SwissO, memorabilia, FYI, mattygs, Sir Rols, stark, what do you say now?

Well, first of all, I agree with the commenters who say it's not a reflection on Rome's capability of hosting. I'm still sure they could have managed it, and done it with far less greenfields investment needed than most of the others. But I started getting an inkling this was a quite likely move by Monti yesterday when the decision was dragging on.

And, I can't remember who said it, but someone posted yesterday that it wasn't so much the notion of hosting that made the decision to drop out likely - like most potential bidders, if Rome had some inkling it was more likely than most to win the bid, I'm sure they might have stuck it out. But the sheer cost of an expensive bid with no certainty of any pay-off or reward at the end would certainly have been unpalatable for a government committed to demonstrating it's serious about austerity measures. If they had stuck it out, I think the bid would have become a domestic political football for the Italians over the next 18 months, which would have gradually chipped away at their chances.

Where does this leave the race IMO? Tokyo probably has gained the most out of this. Madrid could still likely face the type of political backlash to the bid that I fear Rome might have. I still discount Baku and I don't think this will have much affect either way on Doha's support - I think at the end of the day that the IOC members who would favour "anywhere but Doha" will be in the majority.

Which leaves Istanbul. Hmmmm? Still probably my emotional favourite, and I've admonished already those here who are impatient to see their logo and plans, but they really do seem to be a bit low key and dragging the chain a bit so far. It's early days, sure, and I think their chances depend totally on how well they campaign, but they should get a move on.

At the moment I'd call the race as Tokyo's to lose, with Istanbul the most likely potential spoiler.

[747]

I think Madrid is the favorite.

Tokyo offers stability but still feels too soon for another monster Asian Summer games.

Doha would be spectacular and spectacularly controversial, but money may talk.

Baku.....yuk....sorry, I'm American so you can blame it on that.

Istanbul...too many ties to teetering and volatile neighbors..again...I'm American sorry.

Rome...goodbye.

[intoronto]

I think Madrid is the favorite.

Tokyo offers stability but still feels too soon for another monster Asian Summer games.

Doha would be spectacular and spectacularly controversial, but money may talk.

Baku.....yuk....sorry, I'm American so you can blame it on that.

Istanbul...too many ties to teetering and volatile neighbors..again...I'm American sorry.

Rome...goodbye.

How would Madrid be the favourite. They are the only European bid left meaning all other European members with votes will likely vote against it to help their cases for the games later in the decade.

[mattperiolat]

Well, for the ten cents or one euro it's worth, here's my take...

2020 is turning into the Olympics nobody wants. First no bid from SA, now Rome withdrawing, both prohibitive favorites, it really does look like no one wants to take a chance on the Games right now.

As for who is left, let's dust for prints.

I confess I am totally ignorant of Baku and Azerbaijan. Sorry, aside from it being a former Soviet republic and being able to ID the flag, it's a total cypher to me. Consider this an opportunity to educate me. I'll keep an open mind, but if I, the average joe, know so little, I doubt the odds of it scoring an Olympics are very good.

Doha... ah, the Middle Eastern power that won a WC to be hosted in the middle of summer, what luck. That nose tweek aside, it has a decent chance of being short-listed, especially since in the last SOG ballot, the city score was higher than eventual winner, Rio. I am less certain of their chances to win, especially on their first serious try and with so many unknowns about working around the heat in the area.

Tokyo... any other year, I'd agree with those calling it the favorite. Right now, Japan has a few problems. First, the Japanese yen tends to be a little unstable in the current economic climate. That could change, but clearly economics are going to be a big factor in this election. Second, Japan's government is directly impacted by economics right now. We've had more than a few cabinets and prime ministers resign simply because they could not get control of the yen. That is also going to be a factor in the race. Third and possibly most important, I am not certain how well Japan has bounced back from the earthquake and tsunami of the last year. Honestly, an arguement could be made that funding for an Olympics might be better spent in assisting the areas hit by the disaster. True, that will happen anyway, it's just an arguement.

Istanbul... first time in the Middle East, first time in a predominately Islamic country and God knows the Turks have been gunning for this for quite some time. You'd think the IOC would jump for this new frontier but there is a significant stumbling block: the stability of the government. I do not believe that Turkey is going to just suddenly fall apart, but the whole geographical area is a bit unstable at the moment and due to this, tensions and political pressures are running high in Turkey. Like it or not, it is something to give the IOC some pause.

Finally, there's Madrid. I must claim some ignorance here as I am not entirely certain how badly the global recession is impacting Spain, but Madrid does have some positives going for it. First, experience - hosting a recent Games within the last 20 years, which means the government gets the burden of the cost. Second, positioning - Madrid did finish second to Rio on the last ballot. Say all you want to about the wheeling and dealing of JAS, that's still impressive given the quality of the field. Third and finally, preparations. From what I understand, Madrid has already spent quite a bit to prepare itself to host the world. Granted, it's still not "ready" and work and improvements can be done, but having a head start can be very benificial in keeping the costs down, which will be essential for this race.

So, in case you have not guessed it... I'm feeling right now Madrid has the best shot, if the election were held right now. I want to see what Istanbul and Tokyo in particular put forward before casting a final vote, but for the moment... remarkable as it may seem, Spain has a real chance at hosting another Olympics.

[Ahmed-Isma]

Baku.....yuk....sorry, I'm American so you can blame it on that.

Istanbul...too many ties to teetering and volatile neighbors..again...I'm American sorry.

Haha american. I can smell that your mother is armenian sharmootta. Yeah and I am Canadian.

[Barcelona_'92]

Well, for the ten cents or one euro it's worth, here's my take...

2020 is turning into the Olympics nobody wants. First no bid from SA, now Rome withdrawing, both prohibitive favorites, it really does look like no one wants to take a chance on the Games right now.

Let's not forget that the USOC passed on 2020 as well, even if it seemed they didn't have much of a chance. In hindsight, the USOC should have focused on 2020 instead of 2016. IMO, a strong Chicago bid would be a clear favorite in this weak field and would also have the fewest negatives. As it is, I'm not overly excited about any of the remaining cities, and I'm very worried that Doha will throw enough money at this to win given the economic instability in Spain and the earthquake disaster in Japan.

[mattperiolat]

Let's not forget that the USOC passed on 2020 as well, even if it seemed they didn't have much of a chance. In hindsight, the USOC should have focused on 2020 instead of 2016. IMO, a strong Chicago bid would be a clear favorite in this weak field and would also have the fewest negatives. As it is, I'm not overly excited about any of the remaining cities, and I'm very worried that Doha will throw enough money at this to win given the economic instability in Spain and the earthquake disaster in Japan.

Well, given the way the IOC treated the USOC and Chicago, they reap what they sow. But, if wishes were fishes and all that. Truth of the matter is not only is 2020 a Games the world seems to be somewhat wanting in desire for, but all of the bid cities, even the current favorites (Madrid, Tokyo, Istanbul) all have problems that in other years would severely handicap them. As it is, the IOC might be willing to overlook what in can in pure desperation.

[intoronto]

Let's not forget that the USOC passed on 2020 as well, even if it seemed they didn't have much of a chance. In hindsight, the USOC should have focused on 2020 instead of 2016. IMO, a strong Chicago bid would be a clear favorite in this weak field and would also have the fewest negatives. As it is, I'm not overly excited about any of the remaining cities, and I'm very worried that Doha will throw enough money at this to win given the economic instability in Spain and the earthquake disaster in Japan.

Don't forget the wildcard Istanbul.

[deawebo]

I rember when there where some speculation to Paris to bid in this race... Stpid desition... 2020 is one of the least strong campaings we would ever see

[Barcelona_'92]

I rember when there where some speculation to Paris to bid in this race... Stpid desition... 2020 is one of the least strong campaings we would ever see

Berlin too--IMO, either Paris or Berlin would be a clear frontrunner in this field. There are a lot of negatives surrounding all 5 bids remaining. At least two of the cities have negatives that could be crippling (Madrid--Spain's economy; Tokyo--the potential for a natural/nuclear disaster), and Baku is not a legitimate challenger. Doha has the heat and the stench of the World Cup bribery scandal, and Istanbul has significant problems surrounding its infrastructure. The IOC is more or less going to have to roll the dice and hope for the best.

[baron-pierreIV]

it's really funny and interesting to see how the various "native" sons & boosters fighting over the scraps of Rome's votes...and how unreal some of them are.

But I think for the IOC to curb bid-spending, they should immediately close the gates on Baku and Doha. No use stringing them along and it'll probably be easier to control the spending of Madrid, Istanbul and Tokyo.