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2020: Who's the Frontrunner?


  

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  1. 1. Who's the frontrunner in the 2020 race so far?



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But Madrid still on the race, and they all of their stadia, their infrastructure, their hotels, etc is already on the place, I think, if a country like Spain (or Italy), which already have all the things hey need to run a SOG, and the economic condition in their country becoming worsem the one thing they need to do is host the game, instead of withdrawn from the race, since the games will boost their economy, and they don't need to invest a lot :)

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If, as looks likely, Turkey is the only candidate for Euro 2020 I'd find it impossible to believe their government would turn around to UEFA and say "actually, no, we don't want this". That'd be such

I think Turkey saying they want the European Championships and the Olympics will work against them. The IOC is not going to want a big show in town in June and the Olympics in August.

It's impossible for any country to stage the same year two major sport events such as Euro and the Olympic Games (and this has nothing to do with Turkey). It would create major challenges regarding ma

SwissO, memorabilia, FYI, mattygs, Sir Rols, stark, what do you say now?

Easy victory for Tokyo....

All Italian & French members, plus plenty of other European will vote in favor of a non European & credible bid... So the only choice is TOKYO...

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And my other bet is that IOC will only shortlist 3 cities... the ones with the less risk and that bring the most of guarantees already through their applicant file !

I think Doha has now Bradbury'ed its way onto the shortlist. I don't see the IOC keeping the shortlist down to 3. Even if the IOC didn't want to set a precedent in raising Doha's hopes for the future, I just can't see the image-conscious IOC being happy with such a tiny shortlist.

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I am with you on that Gangwon, Even if they had not reached a profit sharing agreement this really would have been the Race the USOC or North america could have won.

With Rome dropping out I actually think this will doom Madrid chances just on the fact that they are in the same boat as Italy and IOC members would be foolish not too look at Madrid's bid with skepticism.

I now think this is going to be Tokyo's to loose at this point because stability is definitely the name of the game for this cycle. If the front runner had to drop out before the shortlist could be compiled then you know that has sent a loud message to the IOC. They are going to be playing it safe. New Frontiers aren't going to cut it which dooms Doha, Baku and Istanbul in my opinion. I love me some Doha but I think they would have done better in the race had Rome stayed in to take away some votes from other cities.

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I agree, this has the potential to propel Tokyo to the lead spot, and the bids really haven't left the starting gates yet. It also highlights economic issues, which both Spain and Japan are having their issues right now.

I wonder if the IOC will shortlist everybody now? Certainly Doha will be shortlisted. The IOC is not going to want just three candidate cities, and they will not shortlist Baku over Doha.

Anyway, I am disappointed about Rome pulling out. I wanted to see their logo!

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And my other bet is that IOC will only shortlist 3 cities... the ones with the less risk and that bring the most of guarantees already through their applicant file !

...

.... it's economic crisis for everyone.. IOC will want to control its own finance wit only visiting 3 cities and will want to avoid to cities without non chance to spend money they could use to something else !

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I also think that Tokyo has very good chances now and that the IOC may shortlist only four cities (Madrid, Tokyo, Istanbul and Doha). I am not sure about Baku. Sure they will offer a good concept but here on the boards, noone is talking about the Human Rights situation in Azerbaijan. There is no opposition in parliament, there is no freedom of press, Homosexuality is punished... I think that the IOC is not stupid enough to give the Games to Azerbaijan - after all the disucssion we had before and during the Beijing Games. The torch relaybecame an empty phrase and the reputaion for the IOC was not that good in 2008....

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I also think that Tokyo has very good chances now and that the IOC may shortlist only four cities (Madrid, Tokyo, Istanbul and Doha). I am not sure about Baku. Sure they will offer a good concept but here on the boards, noone is talking about the Human Rights situation in Azerbaijan. There is no opposition in parliament, there is no freedom of press, Homosexuality is punished... I think that the IOC is not stupid enough to give the Games to Azerbaijan - after all the disucssion we had before and during the Beijing Games. The torch relaybecame an empty phrase and the reputaion for the IOC was not that good in 2008....

As I can see German media is doing its dirty anti-Azerbaijan campaign very sucessfully...

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I also think that Tokyo has very good chances now and that the IOC may shortlist only four cities (Madrid, Tokyo, Istanbul and Doha). I am not sure about Baku. Sure they will offer a good concept but here on the boards, noone is talking about the Human Rights situation in Azerbaijan. There is no opposition in parliament, there is no freedom of press, Homosexuality is punished... I think that the IOC is not stupid enough to give the Games to Azerbaijan - after all the disucssion we had before and during the Beijing Games. The torch relaybecame an empty phrase and the reputaion for the IOC was not that good in 2008....

This all misinformation and exxagerated facts is all what British and German media is showing nowadays by connecting it to Eurovision Song Contest. Here let me answer to you questions:

Paliament

First of all I have to mention that Azerbaijan is not a parliamentary but presidential republic and we have only majoritar system of elections. Parliament of Azerbaijan consist of the deputies from the ruling New Azerbaijan Party has 73 out of 125 seats with the rest belonging to opposition and independent deputees. I have also to admit that some opposition parties simply boycotted the last parliamentary elections which I find totally wrong attitude but saying Azerbaijani parliament has no opposition at all is simply nonsense.

Press

I agree that TV is mainly controlled by the government yet Azerbaijan has a large number of opposition press agencies and newspapers. In fact the most readable newspaper of Azerbaijan is "Yeni Musavat" which belongs to an ultra opposition party. Here is their online version http://www.musavat.com

Homosexuality

Azerbaijan abolished an article in the Criminal Code against homosexuality in the year 2000. Also the latest Constitution says eveone regardless to the racial, ethnic, sexual orientation has the same rights (Article 25 para III). There is one NGO "Gender and Development" which is an active supporter of LGBT rights and whose website is http://www.lgbt.az At the same time there are some gay forums etc. under .az domain like http://www.gay.az Baku doesn't have very vivid gay life yet there are some gay and gay-friendly bars and cafes. Believe or not we are not much different from Istanbul and far ahead of Doha in this sense.

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@Galandar: It's not a "dirty anti-Azerbaijan campaign" - it is facts!

Azerbaijan is still far from being any perfect in this sense but judging it only from the Western perspectives is very wrong imo. It is not as bad as western countries expect it to be. Moreover, it is still very unknown to the West therefore they don't give a damn **** about it and automatically put it always in the bottom of all kind of lists. In this regard it is also a fact that a great Armenian diaspora in the Western countries also does its best in order to minimize any chances of Azerbaijan to be well--accepted.

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@ Galandar. just go to the Website of Amnesty International or try to register an NGO in Azerbaijan

Some things are true which I never undermine but some are simply exxageration and can not be accepted by a usual Azerbaijani as any true evidence. As for violation of property rights the British and German media keep claiming that it has to do with Eurovision Song Contest. In fact they show redevelopment areas of Baku where demolition works started far before Azerbaijan won Eurovision Song Contest. For instance, BBC told in its article that people were forced to leave because Azerbaijan won ESC and decided to build an arena called Baku Crystal Hall. In reality the area around Flag Pole started to get redeveloped already in 2008 and the process has been going on even at time when we won ESC. The area of Baku Crystall Hall was already demolished in 2010. This is done for the redevelopment of the parts of the city with poor infrastructure and horrendous housing. Those people are given either 1500 AZN (1 AZN is equal to 1 EUR) per sq m or they can choose even a bigger apartment in newly-built buildings. 1500 AZN is a very good price for those terribe houses built with no proper plan etc. Many people agree and get their steaks out of it but there are always some who claim, bring it to the courts, invite media including from the Western countries etc. This doesn't mean those people are not paid fairly it is just mentality when you try to get more than you supposed to get.

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In this regard it is also a fact that a great Armenian diaspora in the Western countries also does its best in order to minimize any chances of Azerbaijan to be well--accepted.

LMFAO, it's so funny to see how Armenia still stands for you for all the bad things happening... And yeah, there were some little improvements during the recent years, but what the law says is one thing, what Ilham Aliyev says something other. I heard that only for ESC yet hundreds of people lost their homes.

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AND BACK TO THE MAIN TOPIC.

As for the shortlist, Dont the bidding cities pay for the IOC visits? I thought they did but could be wrong. I brought this up because someone said the IOC might cut costs as well and only do 3 candidates.

Quite frankly I think Baku will surprise us all and become a candidate city. Doha as well. I don't foresee the IOC snubbing them again especially when the front runner dropped out and 2 of the new front runners (Madrid and Tokyo) are also experiencing economic issues. I think they will keep them in just to have options. We all keep saying so many things can happen over the course of the year, especially with this volatile economic situation, so u need backup plans in case Madrid has to drop out later on or even Tokyo and with things escalating in Syria you bet your bottom dollar that Istanbul is also sitting on a precarious perch. So now the race really become a race against time. Who can win the bid before something bad happens to their country.

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Remember, the IOC ExCo cuts down the candidates to cities that can handle hosting (unless too many cities bid, in which case they get to be a little more selective). They do this to make it easier for the whole body of the IOC to vote on the host city. Many members don't pay attention to the bid details, so this step is critical to weeding out the weaker bids.\

I am not convinced that Baku is capable of hosting. Doha is certainly capable, so I think we will see four candidate cities shortlisted. For starters, Qatar's economy is twice the size of Azerbaijan's economy, so they can certainly make up enough reasons why not to shortlist them. If they shortlisted Azerbaijan, it would be the smallest, and least wealthiest country to ever be a candidate for the Olympics since they began shortlisting.

Why should the IOC really care what poor little Azerbaijan thinks anyway? It is not like China or even an African country which would result in a lot more sour sentiment.

Annecy was shortlisted because it was a French bid, and there were only two other bidders. We all knew they didn't stand a chance. I don't think the IOC will feel the same about Baku.

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Galander, Azerbajian is TOO small to support a full Summer Olympics. Do you have like 30-40 well-equipped campuses to host the top 30-40 summer teams as training camps?? You should face the facts from the start.

AND BACK TO THE MAIN TOPIC.

As for the shortlist, Dont the bidding cities pay for the IOC visits? I thought they did but could be wrong. I brought this up because someone said the IOC might cut costs as well and only do 3 candidates.

Quite frankly I think Baku will surprise us all and become a candidate city. Doha as well. I don't foresee the IOC snubbing them again especially when the front runner dropped out and 2 of the new front runners (Madrid and Tokyo) are also experiencing economic issues. I think they will keep them in just to have options. We all keep saying so many things can happen over the course of the year, especially with this volatile economic situation, so u need backup plans in case Madrid has to drop out later on or even Tokyo and with things escalating in Syria you bet your bottom dollar that Istanbul is also sitting on a precarious perch. So now the race really become a race against time. Who can win the bid before something bad happens to their country.

No. The bidding cities don't. It's on the IOC's dime...but the candidate cities have made like, I dunno $125,000 deposits to the IOC. So the costs of those viists, I think, will eventually be taken from there.

Edited by baron-pierreIV
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