Your Predictions

[BethnalGreen]

Are you sure? He hasn't really said here!!!  Most people that announce Madrid as their favouite for winning, state that Paris will come second!!!  Or at least have some dig about London being inferior to both Madrid and Paris!!!  Just IMHO!!!

:laughlong:

[Kenadian]

He has London dropping on the 3rd ballot with Moscow and NYC having dropped earlier.  With Madrid winning on the fourth ballot, who do you think they are up against?  The ghost of Toronto's bid?

[MKeynes2020]

My prediction:

Round 1: Moscow out. The Muscovite bid simply hasn't picked up support.

Round 2: Madrid out. Again, lack of decent core of support.

Now comes the tricky part.

Round 3: NYC. I feel NYC and London between them will get over 50% of the third ballot (denying Paris on this round), but there could be a big split between the two. These two will be seperated by only a few votes...but sticking my neck out, the "Atlanta Factor" and recent setbacks may do for New York City. Hope they'll be back for 2016.

Round 4: Paris by a nose. Many of the NYC supporters will go over to the London bid (the US/UK block vote, if you like), however I think Paris have just enough support to clinch it. Being a London supporter, kinda hoping I'm wrong here.

SO:

1. MOSCOW

2. FOUR

3. ...PARIS, FRANCE!

[baron-pierreIV]

The real lynchpin here is after the 1st vote -- if Paris does not get an outright  majority -- and the other 3 European cities want another crack at it in 2009, then they will switch to a New York win so they can come back to fight another day.

[MKeynes2020]

Is it just me, or are most of the London Bid supporters on here prediciting Paris?

Ah, British pessimism.

[argentak]

I've actually changed my order somewhat, adding a last round.

1st. Moscow out

2nd. London out

3rd. New York out

4th. Madrid loses to Paris.

My prediction is based on the GB index and my considering that there are 3 distinct groups/archetypes (London and Paris = top contenders. Madrid = in the middle. New York and Moscow = visible issues.) I predict that only one of each group will remain after the first two votes, meaning the lower of the pair with issues and the pair who are at top will be out 1st and 2nd.

[nykfan845]

The real lynchpin here is after the 1st vote -- if Paris does not get an outright  majority -- and the other 3 European cities want another crack at it in 2009, then they will switch to a New York win so they can come back to fight another day.

If New York wins, that's the exact reason why.

[andrewww]

Hi to all of you..... If I have to be realist and not guide by my heart.... these are gonna be the resolts.

 1... Moscow out "   next time will be better"

 2... New York out " you know the stadiumm..."

 3... London or Paris out  " the organized OG before"

 4... Madrid wins  "Very close to Paris i think"

SO LETS SEE ALL OF YOU IN MADRID..

[javix]

I want to know your opinions about the following thought. The media and some representatives of Madrid 2012 have oftenly said that the most difficult round for Madrid will be the third one. They say Madrid is likely to be out in the third, but if it makes it to the final round with Paris, then Madrid is very likely to win. What's your take on this?

[Rei]

I predict something like this:

-round1: 1st Paris, 2nd London, 3rd Ny, Moscow and Madrid tied

-round2: 1st Madrid, 2nd Paris, 3rd London, Ny and Moscow tied

-round3: 1 Paris, 2 Madrid, 3 London, 4th Ny, Moskow out

-round4: 1 Paris, 2 Ny, 3 Madrid, London out

-round5: 1 Paris, 2nd Madrid

[mexico1968]

I predict something like this:

-round1: 1st Paris, 2nd London, 3rd Ny, Moscow and Madrid tied

-round2: 1st Madrid, 2nd Paris, 3rd London, Ny and Moscow tied

-round3: 1 Paris, 2 Madrid, 3 London, 4th Ny, Moskow out

-round4: 1 Paris, 2 Ny, 3 Madrid, London out

-round5: 1 Paris, 2nd Madrid

[argentak]

I want to know your opinions about the following thought. The media and some representatives of Madrid 2012 have oftenly said that the most difficult round for Madrid will be the third one. They say Madrid is likely to be out in the third, but if it makes it to the final round with Paris, then Madrid is very likely to win. What's your take on this?

I think Madrid is only very likely to win the final round if it is up against Moscow, frankly. The reason being is that London, Paris, and New York are all huge world centres of media and business. If Moscow goes out first, followed by New York, Madrid MAY survive and go on to the final round, but if it does then all of the votes that are swayed by media and business attention would easily go to London or Paris. I only partly agree with that idea. Madrid could easily reach the final two by having a good bid and slipping by the the 1st/2nd choice bustups of London and Paris, but other than an endorsement from Greenpeace I can't see any single issue that would propel it over Paris or London. Just my opinion anyways. If it did come down to Madrid and Paris, I think votes that originally went to London and New York would go to Paris because of the emphasis on media, and because of the two countries, Spain has most recently hosted a Summer Games.

[RAP]

I predict something like this:

-round1: 1st Paris, 2nd London, 3rd Ny, Moscow and Madrid tied

-round2: 1st Madrid, 2nd Paris, 3rd London, Ny and Moscow tied

-round3: 1 Paris, 2 Madrid, 3 London, 4th Ny, Moskow out

-round4: 1 Paris, 2 Ny, 3 Madrid, London out

-round5: 1 Paris, 2nd Madrid

Dream on!! What are you guys smoking! I want some!!

Here we go:

ROUND #1  Moscow out!

Round #2   Madrid out!!

ROUND #3  London out!!!

Round #4   PARIS WINS

See you in NEW YORK 2016!! :unclesam:  ::

[NYCD 2012]

Wheres nyc , rap

[Rei]

I think it won't be so simple as you say.. it's the hardest election in the >OG history.. it won't finish only in 4 rounds..

[FRAN_]

1. Moscow

2. Dont' know

3. Paris

I would like to add one thing, it seems that people are voting cities basing on prejudices. Sinc London, New York and Paris are the richest cities and also the most known or popular, they are more capable to host Olympic Games. I would invite people to read the IOC short list report, who evaluated the project inform handed in by all the candidates cities, which ranked: 1 Paris 2 Madrid 3 London 4 New York 5 Moscow.

They evaluated 11 subjects (rank according to the 5 cities selected):

-Government support, legal issues and public opinion:

1 Madrid 2 Paris 3 London

-General infraestructure:

1 Madrid 2 Paris 3 London

-Sport-venues:

1 Madrid 2 Paris 3 London

-Olympic Village:

1 Madrid 2 Paris 3 London

-Environmental conditions and impact:

1 Paris 2 Madrid and London

-Accomodation:

1 Paris, London and NewYork 3 Madrid

-Transport concept:

1 Madrid 2 Paris 3 London and New York

-Safety and Security:

1 Paris 2 London 3 Madrid and New York

-Experience of past sports events:

1 Paris 2 New York 3 Madrid

-Finance:

1 Paris Madrid and London 2 New York 3 Moscow

-Overall Project and Legacy:

1 Paris and Madrid 2 London 3 New York

And as I said before.. Final Result

1 Paris 2 Madrid 3 London

So Madrid leaders 5 points and shares leadership (with Paris) in 2 points. Then Madrid has the highest punctuation of the 5 candidates cities in 7 of the 11 points, that means a very good project.

Just one thing more, many people confused what the last reported meant with VERY HIGH QUALITY and HIGH QUALITY, they didnt refer to the project of the candidates cities but to the information received about the project!

So i think Paris and Madrid deserve both to with, but since Barcelona hosted 1992 Games and Paris is a candidate city for the third time (it lost 1992 and 2008), Paris is supposed to win.

[Rei]

I predict something like this:

-round1: 1st Paris, 2nd London, 3rd Ny, Moscow and Madrid tied

-round2: 1st Madrid, 2nd Paris, 3rd London, Ny and Moscow tied

-round3: 1 Paris, 2 Madrid, 3 London, 4th Ny, Moskow out

-round4: 1 Paris, 2 Ny, 3 Madrid, London out

-round5: 1 Paris, 2nd Madrid

I have to correct it..

-round1: 1st Paris, 2nd London, 3rd Ny, Moscow and Madrid tied

-round2: 1st Madrid, 2nd Paris, 3rd London, 4th Ny, Moscow out

-round3: 1 Paris, 2 Madrid, 3 Ny, London out

-round4: 1 Paris, 2 Madrid, Ny out

-round5: 1 Paris, 2 Madrid (or viceversa)

[Mikel]

Round 2: Madrid out. Again, lack of decent core of support.

Madrid is the city with more public support in the country and the city... :glare:   So.... what are you saying?

[Robert Henson]

Round 2: Madrid out. Again, lack of decent core of support.

Madrid is the city with more public support in the country and the city... :glare:   So.... what are you saying?

I think he means within the IOC. That would make most sense since thier voting.

[Mikel]

Round 2: Madrid out. Again, lack of decent core of support.

Madrid is the city with more public support in the country and the city... :glare:   So.... what are you saying?

I think he means within the IOC. That would make most sense since thier voting.

ah! ok ::  

[LA84]

The real lynchpin here is after the 1st vote -- if Paris does not get an outright  majority -- and the other 3 European cities want another crack at it in 2009, then they will switch to a New York win so they can come back to fight another day.

If New York wins, that's the exact reason why.

Yep.  I've said that since day one.  The only way NYC will win will be the "divide and conquer." strategy.

I used to think that Madrid could be the spoiler but now I am not sure.  The Mexican IOC member has already indicated that he is swinging to New York so I wonder how many of the Central and South American votes Spain can rely on. That would be key to Madrid advancing to the final round.

I still think London may very possibly pull it off with France getting the 2014 Winter Games.  London has the most to loose for 2012.

[Guest]

Moscow out first round

Madrid out second round

Paris out third round

New York wins selection

JUST ANOTHER TAKE ON IT:

The non-competing european cities will not support the current european cities against the New York bid for 2012 as they will be shut out of 2016/2020. With North America out of the way - asuming they win 2012 - 2016/2020 will be up for grabs for those non-competing 2012 European cities again...even Toronto won't have a shot for 2016/2020 because of Vancouver 2010 and New York 2012.

[svenskatiger]

I wonder if Rana's "directives" for the latino vote to go to NYC will have a poor effect on Madrid?

I think it's NYC still to win, but would be hapopy with any of them - so it's all good.  GO MOSCOW!

By the way, 2004 was 5 cities, 4 rounds - one was a vote off, so its not technically as round as only two cities were involved..

Stockholm was robbed!

Thats what we like to say also. Stockholm was best option for the IOC, and they choose to ignore us.

[JDPinstripes]

To those of you saying NYC will win...

If this happens. It will be a disgrace of the highest order. And the IOC would have problems justifying it, even on their already low standards.

Giving the games to a city, which struggles to get its venues in order, a city with a very low public support for the games and to a city who will refuse to fund any shortfalls beyond $250 million... it's a complete and utter farce.

This has nothing to do with anti-american feelings, but it makes me wonder how intelligent somepeople are that post here.

New York was a long shot even before its problems surrounding its west side stadium. The Mayors games backfired, saying NY had NO other option if the west side stadium failed. Well we know that was a lie, he was just scaremongering, to make the politicans accept HIS plan.

Atlanta 96, weak public support, mediocre political support, Vancouver 2010... these are all factors that can't be dismissed so easily. And if you do, then you're in denial.

Bringing Ali to Singapore, will only refresh the IOCs minds back to Atlanta 96, which wasn't so long ago, and those games were probably the worst in recent times.

Giving the games to NYC over Paris, is to me... unimaginable. Even if I'd rather have the games in NY than Paris. It just won't happen.

What a kick in the teeth it would be to Paris and to a lesser extent London, if NYC with all its problems and issues, won the vote. The IOC would need to ask themselves some serious questions.

But of course, we all know they do as they please, but this would be a stones throw too far.

Ummm...this just in....Saying that your views aren't that of an Anti-American Terrorist, and then going on to slam the Country makes you an America Hating Hypocrite

I think your hiding Osama in your basement too..Heck, I'll bet you were cheering as those towers fell....And I'll bet your toasting the bubbly each time an American dies in Iraq because we killed your secret oil dealings with Saddam.

You disgust me Frenchie....

If you really wanted to provide insightful analysis instead of your America Hating Bullcrap you would have just said that Paris is the only previous bidder in the race, and that the IOC gave them the highest marks, and that they were screwed over twice in the last 20 years....Once as a personal favor (Albertville-Barcelona debacle) and the other to hand the Games to Beijing.

And by the way flag burner....When it is all said and done, any of the cities on the short list including Moscow are a safer choice then Athens ever was......and will be billions cheaper too.....And that's being nice by not mentioning that Beijing is going to blow more then a few billion on this thing.

Now go back to burning your flags and planning your terrorist attacks and leave the English speaking people alone. Your begging for these posts to be translated to French so you can blah blah blah and sound smart.

[JDPinstripes]

I wonder if Rana's "directives" for the latino vote to go to NYC will have a poor effect on Madrid?

I think it's NYC still to win, but would be hapopy with any of them - so it's all good.  GO MOSCOW!

By the way, 2004 was 5 cities, 4 rounds - one was a vote off, so its not technically as round as only two cities were involved..

Stockholm was robbed!

Thats what we like to say also. Stockholm was best option for the IOC, and they choose to ignore us.

That'sNotMyPuppy,

Knowing your vast IOC knowledge...why do you think it's New York's to win?

Just interested.....Though now that you brought up the Central/Latin/South American aspect...I wonder how many damn people NYC12 can hand green cards too before next week