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Since ALL are claiming they can win  :rolleyes:, what if there's a 5-way tie throughout and nobody budges?  

Maybe they'll break it down:

Paris - since they have the stadium, T&F events

London - all the net events (tennis, volleyball, field hockey, etc.)

New York - since they have the best harbor - all the water events: swimming, synchro, diving, triathlon, water polo, sailing, rowing

Moscow - gymnastics

Madrid - the rest..

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My 2 cents:

Round One...Moscow goes out, NYC and Madrid almost equal, and London just ahead of these two. Paris out by a few from London to lead.

Round Two: Moscow's votes leak to Paris and Madrid, and NYC can't secure more from either those who have previously voted for Moscow or London. NYC goes out, and Paris's lead lengthens.

Round Three: Madrid acts as a spoiler, and whilst it potentially could send most of its IOC preferences to Paris to get Paris over the line at this stage, enough disaffected NYC votes plus some Madrid votes go to London to keep the voting at about 55% Paris to 45% London

Round Four: Paris will have to have either won by Round two or three, otherwise London could catch up and do a Sydney on Paris. The size of the NYC support and preferences will be crucial to London, as will the secondary leakage of support from IOC voters for Madrid.

The winner....my bet is Paris, but I would love to see London win coming from behind.

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Can you believe there are only 15 days to go?!?!

OK, so let's make some final predictions and measure them after the July 6 announcement...

1 - First city to drop off the ballot?

2 - Number of rounds needed to pick a winner? (not including run off ties for last place).

3 - Complete Jacques Rogge's sentence - "The Games of the XXX Olympiad in 2012 are awarded to the city of...? ? ?"

First round of voting - Moscow drops , London with a slight lead over paris (4-5 votes)

Second round of voting - New York drops out London and Paris Neck and Neck (1 vote or equal)

Third round - Madrid drops out, London widens the gap (london lead approx +10-12 votes over Paris)

Four round - It is all dependant on how the South American deligation votes. My spread is London +9 to Paris +3 (ie there are six votes in it). It is literally a coin flip

The 2 countries votes to decide it are Brazil (3 delegates) and Mexico (2 delegates) (if london can get 2 of those from 5, they are home and dry)

Its London or Paris, I'd love it to be London, but it is really too close to call.

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Can you believe there are only 15 days to go?!?!

OK, so let's make some final predictions and measure them after the July 6 announcement...

1 - First city to drop off the ballot?

2 - Number of rounds needed to pick a winner? (not including run off ties for last place).

3 - Complete Jacques Rogge's sentence - "The Games of the XXX Olympiad in 2012 are awarded to the city of...? ? ?"

First round of voting - Moscow drops , London with a slight lead over paris (4-5 votes)

Second round of voting - New York drops out London and Paris Neck and Neck (1 vote or equal)

Third round - Madrid drops out, London widens the gap (london lead approx +10-12 votes over Paris)

Four round - It is all dependant on how the South American deligation votes. My spread is London +9 to Paris +3 (ie there are six votes in it). It is literally a coin flip

The 2 countries votes to decide it are Brazil (3 delegates) and Mexico (2 delegates) (if london can get 2 of those from 5, they are home and dry)

Its London or Paris, I'd love it to be London, but it is really too close to call.

welcome, Coemeister.

But where did you get that Brazil has 3 IOC members?  There are only 2 Brazilian members.  And besides, the Latin (including Mexico) votes will go to New York because it will benefit them the most, especially Brazil because to have the SOG in the AMericas in 2012 will hasten Brazil's chances of hosting in 2020.  But having the Games in NYC in 2016 will preclude having the SOGs in South America for 2020.

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Can you believe there are only 15 days to go?!?!

OK, so let's make some final predictions and measure them after the July 6 announcement...

1 - First city to drop off the ballot?

2 - Number of rounds needed to pick a winner? (not including run off ties for last place).

3 - Complete Jacques Rogge's sentence - "The Games of the XXX Olympiad in 2012 are awarded to the city of...? ? ?"

First round of voting - Moscow drops , London with a slight lead over paris (4-5 votes)

Second round of voting - New York drops out London and Paris Neck and Neck (1 vote or equal)

Third round - Madrid drops out, London widens the gap (london lead approx +10-12 votes over Paris)

Four round - It is all dependant on how the South American deligation votes. My spread is London +9 to Paris +3 (ie there are six votes in it). It is literally a coin flip

The 2 countries votes to decide it are Brazil (3 delegates) and Mexico (2 delegates) (if london can get 2 of those from 5, they are home and dry)

Its London or Paris, I'd love it to be London, but it is really too close to call.

welcome, Coemeister.

But where did you get that Brazil has 3 IOC members?  There are only 2 Brazilian members.  And besides, the Latin (including Mexico) votes will go to New York because it will benefit them the most, especially Brazil because to have the SOG in the AMericas in 2012 will hasten Brazil's chances of hosting in 2020.  But having the Games in NYC in 2016 will preclude having the SOGs in South America for 2020.

Thanks for the correction of delegates, my list was not an up to date list and not from the IOC website.

Is certainly does not change the big picture and that is NYC will go out in the 2nd second.

The biggest factor is actually political, and it is a couple of key continents that will decide the election. If London can get an alliance with Madrid, London will win. London is pretty maticulous in its preparation, so they understand this.

Madrid's vote is not going to come from Europe it will come from South America, not NYC as you contest. Mexico, maybe NYC but the vast Majority will be Madrid.

This is where the vote will be won. London will get the vast majority of the NYC second votes which is no more than 10-12 votes. If you think they will get more, then unfortunately it wishful thinking rather than political.

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I actually think that Moscow will survive the first round despite being the weakest bid technically. The much vaunted "don't embarrass them" scenario will probably come into play.

First to drop: probably Madrid (too many similarities in many floating voters' eyes with Paris).

Number of rounds needed: at least three. If there is a winner after round three, it will probably be Paris, but I think this vote is too tight for that, and that it will go down to the wire with a fourth round...

The winner of which will be: LONDON!

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Guest ryan04

well earlier i put just NYC so here is how i see it going down

Round 1: Moscow Gone - sorry but it is just not up with the others, and the IOC even thinks that.

Round 2: Madrid Gone - same as Moscow, Russia votes go to to the USA hoping for a shout at 2016 or 2014

Round 3: London Gone - Madrid and Moscow votes go to NYC they want a shot at 2016, and if Paris get's it there is no way

Round 4: NYC Wins - After a major European lockout NYC wins due to all major European cities (London,Berlin,Madrid,Rome,Moscow) all want 2016 as well as 2014 bids other than Peyongchang

now into each continestes votes

Europe - NYC Europe wants 2016 if not 2014

Asia - Can't tell 2016 is way to close to Beijing, Peyongchang could care less, maybe not Moscow being the closest

Oceanica - Paris, London, NYC

Africa - NYC and Paris, NYC really wants Africas votes

Latin/South America - Madrid & New York - Mexico is already voting for NYC

Canada - NYC?, London?, Paris? all major factors in the candian way of life

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well earlier i put just NYC so here is how i see it going down

Round 1: Moscow Gone - sorry but it is just not up with the others, and the IOC even thinks that.

Round 2: Madrid Gone - same as Moscow, Russia votes go to to the USA hoping for a shout at 2016 or 2014

Round 3: London Gone - Madrid and Moscow votes go to NYC they want a shot at 2016, and if Paris get's it there is no way

Round 4: NYC Wins - After a major European lockout NYC wins due to all major European cities (London,Berlin,Madrid,Rome,Moscow) all want 2016 as well as 2014 bids other than Peyongchang

now into each continestes votes

Europe - NYC Europe wants 2016 if not 2014

Asia - Can't tell 2016 is way to close to Beijing, Peyongchang could care less, maybe not Moscow being the closest

Oceanica - Paris, London, NYC

Africa - NYC and Paris, NYC really wants Africas votes

Latin/South America - Madrid & New York - Mexico is already voting for NYC

Canada - NYC?, London?, Paris? all major factors in the candian way of life

ryan let sing a song

"Dreams are my reality,

a wonderous world where I like to be"

:grinning:

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well earlier i put just NYC so here is how i see it going down

Round 1: Moscow Gone - sorry but it is just not up with the others, and the IOC even thinks that.

Round 2: Madrid Gone - same as Moscow, Russia votes go to to the USA hoping for a shout at 2016 or 2014

Round 3: London Gone - Madrid and Moscow votes go to NYC they want a shot at 2016, and if Paris get's it there is no way

Round 4: NYC Wins - After a major European lockout NYC wins due to all major European cities (London,Berlin,Madrid,Rome,Moscow) all want 2016 as well as 2014 bids other than Peyongchang

now into each continestes votes

Europe - NYC Europe wants 2016 if not 2014

Asia - Can't tell 2016 is way to close to Beijing, Peyongchang could care less, maybe not Moscow being the closest

Oceanica - Paris, London, NYC

Africa - NYC and Paris, NYC really wants Africas votes

Latin/South America - Madrid & New York - Mexico is already voting for NYC

Canada - NYC?, London?, Paris? all major factors in the candian way of life

ryan let sing a song

"Dreams are my reality,

a wonderous world where I like to be"

:grinning:

I think he`s a little dense.

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Okej, we can understand he is young... but we are all open to criticisms when we post on this type of board, whether you are 15 or 50.

Yes, we are.  But I am also telling you that at 15, he is not a very...polished poster, and you might bear that in mind before judging him too harshly.  He's just not there yet like the others.

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Okej, we can understand he is young... but we are all open to criticisms when we post on this type of board, whether you are 15 or 50.

Yes, we are.  But I am also telling you that at 15, he is not a very...polished poster, and you might bear that in mind before judging him too harshly.  He's just not there yet like the others.

like myself of course right baron...lol j/k :laughlong:

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Guest ryan04

:sniffle:  :down:

man people are testy

:angry:

grr, hiss, snare,

i can be mean too

:angry:  :devil:

hey i rater be 15 than 50 more games, and more bids for me

get over it, it is a race, sure we support our cities to the grave, but you don't need to snap at every little comment made by a NYC Supporter... cough cough MADRID cough

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Okej, we can understand he is young... but we are all open to criticisms when we post on this type of board, whether you are 15 or 50.

Yes, we are.  But I am also telling you that at 15, he is not a very...polished poster, and you might bear that in mind before judging him too harshly.  He's just not there yet like the others.

thanks Daddy.. tell them I'm a good child..

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My predictions for the outcome of the 2012 race.

If Madrid or Paris don't win there will be some major hissy fits going on here  :help:

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My prediction is that Paris should win, though I would be fine with a London, Madrid or even Moscow bid, and don't tell me they have no chance because didn't most of you say the same thing about Pyongchang Korea for the 2010 Winter Games? They nearly won it, so writing anyone off is just plain dumb.

One more prediciton: if New York loses, I would imagine the mainstream media will lead the charge for the U.S. to pull out of the Olympic movement entirely. And if they win, we'll never hear the end of the "greatest city and country in the world" myth. That is one pet peeve about being American: we are bad losers, and even worse winners.

Mi predicción es que París debe ganar, aunque sería fino con un Londres, Oferta de Madrid o aún de Moscú, ¿y no me los dice no tener ninguna ocasión porque no lo hicieron la

mayoría de usted opinión la misma cosa sobre Pyongchang Corea para

los 2010 juegos del invierno? Lo ganaron casi, tan escribir cualquier persona apagado es apenas mudo llano.

Un más prediciton: si Nueva York pierde, Me imaginaría que los medios de corriente conducirán la carga para

el U.S. para sacarse del movimiento olímpico enteramente. Y si ganan, nunca oiremos el final la "ciudad y el país más grandes en del mito

del mundo". Ése es un animal doméstico peeve sobre ser americano: somos malos perdedores, e incluso ganadores peores.

Мой прогноз что paris должен выиграть, хотя я был бы точн с london, Заявка madrid or even moscow, и не говорю я их не иметь никакой шанс потому что не сделала большой

часть из вас мнение такая же вещь о Pyongchang Корее для

2010 игр зимы? Они близко выиграли его, так писать любое как раз обыкновенные толком тупыми.

Одно больше prediciton: если N6h Иорк теряет, то Я представил бы mainstream средства ведут обязанность для у.С. pull out олимпийского движения вс. И если они выигрывают, то, мы никогда не будем слышать конец "большие город и страна в мифа

мире". То одно peeve любимчика о быть американским: мы будем плохими losers, и даже более плохие winners.

Ma prévision est que Paris devrait gagner, bien que j'aille bien avec Londres, Offre de Madrid ou même de Moscou, et est-ce que ne me les dit pas n'avoir aucune chance parce que pas

la plupart d'entre vous parole la même chose au sujet de Pyongchang

Corée pour les 2010 jeux d'hiver ? Ils l'ont presque gagné, ainsi l'inscription de n'importe qui est éteinte juste sourde-muette

plat.

Un plus de prediciton : si New York perd, J'imaginerais que les médias traditionnels mèneront la charge pour

le U.S. pour retirer du mouvement olympique entièrement. Et s'ils gagnent, nous n'entendrons jamais la fin la "plus grands ville et pays du mythe

dans monde". C'est un animal de compagnie irritent au sujet d'être américain : nous sommes mauvais perdants, et encore de plus mauvais gagnants.

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