Switzerland 2038

[Sigh]

The lack of an obvious, or even likely, alternative to Switzerland is the reason I believe that IOC will bend over backwards to ensure the games in Switzerland in 2038.

There are only a very limited number of countries that have the climate, geography and resources to host the games. Most of them are not interested. Norway, for an example hosted great games in the 90s. Today the WOG are twice as big and would put a strain on the small country. Norway actually did look into bidding for the 2030 games after a favourable poll. The first step was to sound out the different winter associations. After that the idea was never heard of again.

Even if the main reason for the plug pulling last time was Bach’s antagonism against Sweden, most likely based on his humiliation when Norway pulled out at a late stage, there are too many stumbling blocks for a renewed SOK bid to go into here.

Sapporo was a one man bid. A man that is growing old and was seriously wounded politically over the issue.

Has ROK ever expressed ANY interest in a second WOG?

Italy, France and US will have hosted games too recently.

Public opinion/political situation MIGHT change in Austria and Canada Well, might.

Germany is focused on the summer games.

Russia is out of question at present.

China?

You see why I believe that IOC will do everything they can to save the Swiss games. Perhaps even to finesse the performance guarantee issue.

[iceman530]

Purely off of nothing but "what if" conjecture, if Switzerland falls through, timing couldn't be better for someone out of left field to make a play.............short of Russia.  2038 is a long way away, so someone ambitious that might traditionally be a total outlier could posture

 

I havent tooted the Almaty horn in awhile, but 13 years from now is a long time and maybe they could emerge as a backup.  

I know it absolutely makes little to no sense, but I would have loved Harbin to be an option for China as an Olympic host.  Never a question if the Chinese can get it done.   It's always been their winter capital anyway.  

Only way Russia is even close to being in the picture is if there is a borderline immediate collapse with a Khordokovsky, Kasparov type pro Western guy who 1000 percent pulls rope in a way that is completely apologetic and a total "we are sorry" tour from top to bottom.  And then what?  Sochi is most likely too warm by then.......it was too warm in 2014.  Will they have the money to take on another project like Sheregesh?  My prognosis is no matter what they're about to experience the Soviet Union dissolution economy on acid (or krokodil rather), so this is probably the biggest pipe dream at all.  

[sebastien1214]

I would love to see the Winter Games held in Almaty one day. I went there this year; it's a really lovely, green city, and if the IOC also wants to explore "new horizons" for the Winter Games, as they might for 2036, Almaty seems to me the most obvious choice among the regions of the world that have never hosted the Winter Games.

Now, I doubt the Swiss bid will go off the rails and the country will withdraw from the race for 2038. There will inevitably be a referendum on the subject (since it's Switzerland, and they have referendums on just about anything). But I have a feeling that a well-thought-out project, one that leverages the entire country and relies on responsible, existing infrastructure (and the country has plenty of that; at worst, for the very few things they don't have, like the speed skating oval, they could easily build them in the Netherlands), wouldn't have too much trouble winning over a majority of Swiss people.

(And, in fact, the primary argument that could be used against the Winter Olympics is environmental concerns; but right now there's a real environmental backlash in Europe in general, you only have to look at the election results. For example, in Switzerland this year there was a referendum on an environmental issue... and the "no" vote won with 70%.)

[iceman530]

The referendums make me extremely pessimistic for Switzerland, just going off previous history.  Would love to have someone waiting in the wings just in case.  

[TorchbearerSydney]

Q: I would love to see the Winter Games held in Almaty one day.

Indeed- I went there about 8 years ago, and it would make a perfect Winter Olympic host.

Wish it had won instead of Beijing (it was close). The new frontier of Central Asia would have been more memorable than Beijing 2022....

[iceman530]

Given the dearth of options.........they might get it.

I do recall very vividly they had significant political turmoil literally right around when the Olympics in 22 would have kicked off.  Maybe a 2038/42 option will give them the time to grow and develop internally to avoid those sorts of issues if they give a second try.  Its still a long way's off, and hopefully they can kick the Russian yoke by then completely.  Who knows.........if the result of the Russia-Ukraine war goes horribly wrong for Russia, Kazakhstan could end up being a big boy in Eurasia.......especially if Balkanization occurs in the Russian Federation.

[StefanMUC]

8 hours ago, iceman530 said:

Given the dearth of options.........they might get it.

I do recall very vividly they had significant political turmoil literally right around when the Olympics in 22 would have kicked off.  Maybe a 2038/42 option will give them the time to grow and develop internally to avoid those sorts of issues if they give a second try.  Its still a long way's off, and hopefully they can kick the Russian yoke by then completely.  Who knows.........if the result of the Russia-Ukraine war goes horribly wrong for Russia, Kazakhstan could end up being a big boy in Eurasia.......especially if Balkanization occurs in the Russian Federation.

Maybe just open a news site today and find out about Trump’s extortion on Ukraine and then rephrase your last part.

[stryker]

I don't have any doubt that the IOC will do what it can to help Switzerland get the 2038 Olympics including moving deadlines and such. What I don't see happening is a Swiss bid proceeding without a referendum and I am sure part of the conversation is when this will take place. Given what is going on next door with the 2030 WOGs and the appeal to the UN under the Aarhus Convention that local citizens were not consulted before going forward with the bid, along with the anti-establishment fever in Europe politically make a referendum a practical certainty. On the flip side, the result of the referendum in Munich does give a template for a successful pitch to the public.

I disagree that if the Swiss bid falls apart that there are no viable alternatives for 2038. Few yes, but none no. IMO the most obvious choice would be Beijing again on short notice. They have the resources and the infrastructure and there is no need for public consultations.

Almaty? They had their shot in 2022 and came up short with a bid that under the old system would never have even been shortlisted. It's not a safe option and the IOC wants safe. In a desperate scenario, China provides that. Kazakhstan does not.

 

[iceman530]

10 hours ago, StefanMUC said:

Maybe just open a news site today and find out about Trump’s extortion on Ukraine and then rephrase your last part.

Yeaaahhhhhh..............Embarrassing to say the least  I wish that crap would put 2028 and 2034 in danger, sincerely.

[Sigh]

Still very little in Swiss meda about WOG 2038. However, I did see one interesting item. Apparently there are talks ongoing to replace the federal financial guarantee with a corporate financial guarantee (several companies involved in that case).

If Swiss olympic then manages ot budge IOC a bit regarding the villages there might not be a need to specially construct new villages. Another budge would mean that no new venues would have ot be built.

In that case referenda can be avoided.

One could also speculate that public opinion is more positive now, especially when risk and possible costs would be more spread out. The mood in Switzerland right now seems to be rather pro big sports events. See also Munich.

[StefanMUC]

I wonder if the aftermath of the terrible disaster in Crans Montana (surely one of the potential venues?) will have any influence. While it was obviously not related to sports, there may be questions raised about general political accountability and governance at least in the canton of Valais.

[Sigh]

I agree that that should be a consideration.

However, as the cynic I am i don't think it will be remembered a year from now and even less a consideration for the IOC.

Crans Montana was in original plan, the one with too many sites. Alpine events and nothing else were planned to be held there. Then the question is what the Project Switzerland 2038 will come up with when it comes to concentrating. There the disaster can be a factor. They probably can't suggest Crans Montana as a site right now. This could further delay any announcement of a new plan.

Otherwise the questions are: Can alpine events be held somewhere else? Can other events be localized in Crans Montana?

So far there are no indicattions, that I have found, of what Project Switzerland 2038 is contemplating.

[sebastien1214]

I think it will be like the 2015 attacks in France, two years before the designation process: no negative impact, and even a somewhat "positive" one (something like "we suffered a terrible tragedy, we are resilient, let's organize the Olympics to show that things are better")

[Sir Rols]

I can’t really see why it would have any bearing at all. It was a tragedy, but a not uncommon one in all parts of the world - a nightclub fire sparked by exuberant drunk people letting off sparklers and fireworks in a crowded venue. Yes, there’s lessons to be learned about fire safety regulations, building materials and exit locations, but it’s got nothing to do with an Olympic bid or plan beyond maybe a somber memory, if remembered at all, in years down the track. It’ll keep happening around the world all too sadly and regularly as long as the basic recipe for bars, nightclubs and discos is to crowd as many people as possible into enclosed spaces and ply them with alcohol.

[sebastien1214]

4 minutes ago, Sir Rols said:

I can’t really see why it would have any bearing at all. It was a tragedy, but a not uncommon one in all parts of the world - a nightclub fire sparked by exuberant drunk people letting off sparklers and fireworks in a crowded venue. Yes, there’s lessons to be learned about fire safety regulations, building materials and exit locations, but it’s got nothing to do with an Olympic bid or plan beyond maybe a somber memory, if remembered at all, in years down the track. It’ll keep happening around the world all too sadly and regularly as long as the basic recipe for bars, nightclubs and discos is to crowd as many people as possible into enclosed spaces and ply them with alcohol.

This is truly a national trauma for Switzerland, and I feel it very clearly when I talk to the few Swiss people I know. In terms of trauma, I'm fairly certain it will be equivalent to November 13, 2015 for us French (these are obviously two radically different events; I'm only talking about the emotional impact). It's important to remember that Switzerland is a small, extremely peaceful country where absolutely no significant incidents occur (I'm barely exaggerating).

Now, yes, the connection to the Olympics is rather tenuous, but if there's one factor that could influence it, it might be what I mentioned in my previous post, precisely because this event is a national trauma for Switzerland. This is the kind of thing that makes you want to do even more national unity, and to say to yourself, "We've suffered a major blow? Well, we're going to surpass ourselves and do extraordinary things to show that we are more alive than ever."

[Sir Rols]

4 hours ago, sebastien1214 said:

This is truly a national trauma for Switzerland, and I feel it very clearly when I talk to the few Swiss people I know. In terms of trauma, I'm fairly certain it will be equivalent to November 13, 2015 for us French (these are obviously two radically different events; I'm only talking about the emotional impact). It's important to remember that Switzerland is a small, extremely peaceful country where absolutely no significant incidents occur (I'm barely exaggerating).

Now, yes, the connection to the Olympics is rather tenuous, but if there's one factor that could influence it, it might be what I mentioned in my previous post, precisely because this event is a national trauma for Switzerland. This is the kind of thing that makes you want to do even more national unity, and to say to yourself, "We've suffered a major blow? Well, we're going to surpass ourselves and do extraordinary things to show that we are more alive than ever."

I’m conscious it was a national trauma. But people are resilient, and recover well no matter how bleak things are at the time. Olympics-wise, there’s often enough been national traumas that afflict upcoming or potential hosts that seem huge at the time but ultimately have little effect on the ultimate games (or perhaps even eventually provide a slightly positive “resilience from tragedy” vibe or narrative). You mention Paris 2015, and there’s also the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear tragedy in Japan while it was bidding, LA’s wildfires last year, plane crashes in Ahmedabad (which so many of us here stated should have no real impact on their bid) and more. Heck, just months after we won our bid in 1993,  Sydney had its own “ring of fire” bushfire emergency. It’s a good chance Brisbane will have sone sort of flood or bushfire event before 2032 - it’s our climate risk.

And in Australia’s we’ve just had our own terrorist national trauma, and while wounds are still raw and the political fallout continues, it didn’t stop us from observing our minutes of silence, praising the heroes, and then get back to enjoying summer holiday season and our traditional summer pastime of cheering on and celebrating the national cricket team as they humiliate the English.

I guess I’m just saying, such events seem big and insurmountable at the time, but we’ve never really had a games-breaker (unless you count Mt Vesuvius scuppering Rome 1908 or covid forcing the 2020 delay). And Crans Montana’s disaster connection to any future Olympics is trivial, and I don’t think reflect on any organisational or public safety and support shortcomings of the Swiss.