Voting Oddities

[Kenadian]

I always like checking out the the past elections archives:

GamesBids IOC Election Archives

There are little oddities that pop up when looking back at the numbers...and they have happened in nearly ever summer Games race since the 1992 Games were decided.

In the 2012 race, New York lost votes on the second ballot (19 to 16) and Madrid lost a vote between the second and third ballot.

In the 2008 race, Istanbul scored 17 votes on the first ballot and then got only 9 on the second ballot.

In the 2004 race, Stockholm locked up 20 votes on the first ballot and then only scored 19 on the third (second ballot being a tie breaker between BA and CT). Cape Town also had a drop between the third and fourth ballots - 22 to 20.

In the 2000 race, Manchester got 11 first round votes, 13 second round votes, and then 11 third round votes before dropping off the ballot.

In the 1996 race, we saw a couple of rollercoaster rides. First, Manchester picked up 11 votes on the first ballot then dropped to 5 on the second ballot. Then, Melbourne, which 12 votes on the first ballot, 21 on the second before dropping off the ballot on the the third vote with only 16.

And in the 1992 race, Brisbane and Belgrade both watched their stock drop as each round passed.

What accounts for these wild rides and shifting votes? IOC members pressing the wrong button? Strategic voting? Lobbying or bribes between ballots (barely any time)? Saving face for a bid that no one expects will get any votes? Sudden change of heart? Or IOC members who just vote at random? Other theories?

[FYI]

Yeah, I've noticed that before, too. It does seem intriguing to say the least. At least in the 2008 race, the explanation for Istanbul in the 1st round would seem to be sympathy votes. After having made it to the 2nd round, more than half those voters who initially voted for them, turned immediately elsewhere, appearing not wanting to take the risk of them advancing any further by more sympathy votes.

[Mainad]

I always like checking out the the past elections archives:

What accounts for these wild rides and shifting votes? IOC members pressing the wrong button? Strategic voting? Lobbying or bribes between ballots (barely any time)? Saving face for a bid that no one expects will get any votes? Sudden change of heart? Or IOC members who just vote at random? Other theories?

I'm always amazed by how close all the candidates were in the 1st round of the 2012 election with 4 of the cities separated by just 1 vote apiece except for Moscow.And then Madrid's amazing leap into the lead in the 2nd round only to stall (and actually lose a vote) in the 3rd.In fact London,Paris and Madrid were in an amazingly close almost 3-way tie in that 3rd round with over 30 votes each! Has there ever been a larger and closer spread of votes amongst 3 cities in the final stages of an Olympic election than this?

As for pressing the wrong button,I am instantly reminded of Israeli IOC member Alec Gilady's later claim that his Greek colleague Lambis Nicolaou had mistakenly voted for Paris rather than Madrid in that remarkable third round by pressing the wrong button which accounts for Madrid mysteriously dropping a vote and getting narrowly eliminated! The story goes that if he had voted for Madrid as he meant to,then Paris and Madrid would have tied on 32 votes each and would have had to go into a head-to-head run off to challenge London in the final round which Madrid probably would have won as there was an apparent secret agreement between London and Madrid supporters to back each other and squeeze out Paris.Madrid would then have beaten London as it would have gained nearly all Paris' votes! Or so went Gilady's colourful version of events.

Nicolaou however later maintained that he had simply voted too late (or not voted at all,I can't quite recall which) and the IOC backed up that version of events.But who knows how differently things might have turned out if he had managed to cast that elusive vote in the 3rd round??

[baron-pierreIV]

I think it's mainly a change of heart. I think most of them have 1st round commitments and try to honor those. After that, it's anybody's ballgame, and probably the more astute and veteran IOC'ers know how to hedge their bets, and hopefully, manage to stay with the 'right' city for the right time which as the events in Guatemala recently proved, always don't turn out to be so.

[frenchnounours]

samaranch played a big part in this in my opinon.

now he is not an active president he always say to not insult the bidding cities in the first round because they won't bid again if no one vote for them.

i think he did the same when he was president.

[Sir Rols]

My Theory is that when it comes to the first round, many members tend to sympathetically vote along all those political, cultural and geographic divides (Latin bloc, franco bloc, ex-soviet bloc etc) that we discuss here so much, in order to demonstrate their friendships, ties and debts to their neighbours and partners. Once the first city is dropped, however, all bets are off, all debts and obligations are paid, and they then go on to vote for who they want to win.

[cfm Jeremie]

Nicolaou however later maintained that he had simply voted too late (or not voted at all,I can't quite recall which) and the IOC backed up that version of events.But who knows how differently things might have turned out if he had managed to cast that elusive vote in the 3rd round??

Nikolaou did indeed vote to late.

I remember watching the vote live that he was complaining and that Rogge told me that there had been two previous rounds so surely he should have been able to vote on time.

I am 100% convinced that had Madrid survived the 3rd round, they would have won.

[frenchnounours]

this greek is stupid

i'm sorry but when there is something important and you are one of the few who have to decide the outcome you do vote in the two mlinutes you have and you make sure you press the right buton!

[baron-pierreIV]

I think he had to go to the bathroom.

So there went Madrid's dreams.

[Mainad]

Nikolaou did indeed vote to late.

I remember watching the vote live that he was complaining and that Rogge told me that there had been two previous rounds so surely he should have been able to vote on time.

In that case,there would have been no difference to the outcome.If Nicolaou's vote had been included,then Madrid would have retained the same number of votes as it had in the 2nd round,ie.32 but would still have been 1 vote behind Paris.So Madrid would still have been eliminated.Only in Gilady's story of the mistaken vote,would it have made any difference!

I am 100% convinced that had Madrid survived the 3rd round, they would have won.

Very possibly as it would have picked up all or most of Paris' votes (or so we assume) in the 4th and final round.I think Paris supporters had been hoping or assuming that Madrid supporters would do the same for Paris (Latin solidarity etc.) but they gained only just over half of Madrid's votes (17) while enough of them went to London (15) to ensure the latter's victory (Samaranch plotting?).This caused much ill-feeling between Paris and Madrid supporters after the vote...or so I've heard.

[frenchnounours]

If this story is true i don't understand samaranch idea.

if madrid supporters voted for paris,most of paris suporters would have vote for madrid on the next election where europe has a shot because most of them were form europe (from the ones who openly gave their opinion on the race).

cause a lot of london suporters were from englsih speaking and commonweath countries(generally,of course you could be a russian menber and supoort london etc)and i don't see why they would return their vote to madrid against a very likely english speaking city bid.

if i had support london and voted for it all along i d'ont see why i should vote madrid next time.

have a awful feeling that 2020 race will be europe to loose and that madrid and paris will be at war resulting by one of them to miss the last ballot and give victory to other finalist(maybe rome berlin or praha)

[baron-pierreIV]

have a awful feeling that 2020 race will be europe to loose and that madrid and paris will be at war resulting by one of them to miss the last ballot and give victory to other finalist(maybe rome berlin or praha)

Where did you get the idea that it's even Europe's to begin with? Where is it written that 2020 is bound for Europe?

[frenchnounours]

sorry baron i meant if it s europe to loose;)

obvioulsy if japan or usa win 2016 or brazil you may have american and japan bid in 2020.

it was just an example