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Bidindex: Pc Leads, Salzburg Drops


ghost1

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bidindex in four previous attempts has only correctly predicted the winner once (Beijing 2008 - where every man and his dog knew that they were going to win that race)

Hardly a credible formguide to tip a winner

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I think Rob argues it's not intended to pick a winner as such but look at how the bids compare using factors from previous bids. Such factors may be stronger or weaker at any particular election and of course the winner is chosen on the whim of IOC members; the strongest bid doesn't always win.

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I think its difficult for most forum members to really grasp what BidIndex tries to achieve because you are all far more knowledgeable then the general public who may start tuning into the race just days or hours before the election. BidIndex is designed to give the reader a "feel" for where the race stands - not necessarily predict a winner.

Look at the 2012 results...

BidIndex Archive With 2012 Results

Paris 66.18

London 65.07

Madrid 61.22

New York 57.59

Moscow 49.58

This final 2012 update was posted shortly BEFORE Tony Blair shook a few hands on election day - something widely credited for swaying a few votes and securing the win. Look how close London and Paris are in the scores.

Now look at the bids that follow. Notice any similarities to the actual final results? Now do you think this gives an accurate perspective of how the race stood a couple of days before the election?

BidIndex is designed to give those who are taking a fresh glance at the race an idea of where it stands. I don't think anyone can claim to have a crystal ball to predict a winner - I think we all know that is only a best guess.

Just days before the election, the average person who had just tuned into the race was shocked to see NYC so far behind. "How could they be almost 10 points behind London and Paris?" was the common question. Well, forum regulars know all of the issues so we weren't surprised. And Moscow was even worse off, over 15 points behind the leaders. GamesBids.com was constantly poked fun at in the New York media for claiming NYC was 4th - "not possible" they said. Now we know, they finished 4th in the ballots.

So for 2014 - a person seeing the race for the first time will see a very tight race. I think most agree this is the case.

Yes - I know - you want to know what happened with the 2010 bid. Unfortunately the Winter bid elections are driven by more than the actual bids themselves. The election is influenced by external politics and the adjacent Summer bids. We are all pretty certain that the upcoming 2012 election was a bid factor in denying Salzburg votes and giving them to PyeongChang. So, all BidIndex can do is base the scores on what we know.

If anything, BidIndex has proven that the Summer Olympic Bids are elected more on their own merits than the Winter bids.

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As I have said before, I think the moost interesting thing abut the Bid Index and the Power Indew is the score evolution rather than the score itself or the ranking.

What was really clear in the 2012 bid index is the fact that London has been constantly gaining momentum.

I see the same pattern repeating for 2014 (which is why I wouldn't be surprised if Sochi wins).

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