Pick The Winner!

[cfm Jeremie]

Round of votes - 2

First dropped - Salzburg

Winner - Sochi

First round

102 votes

PyeongChang - 45

Sochi - 30

Salzburg - 27

Second round

105 votes

Pyeongchang - 52

Sochi - 53

[Faster]

53 - Pyeongchang

30 - Sochi

19 - Salzburg

[Andrew8]

First to be dropped: Salzburg

No. of Rounds: 2

Winner: PyeongChang

[Olympian2004]

First dropped: Salzburg

Number of rounds: 2

Winner: Pyeongchang

1st round

Voting 102

Pyeongchang 44

Sochi 37

Salzburg 21

2nd round

Voting 105

Pyeongchang 57

Sochi 48

[NY20??]

First Round - 102 Voting

*Salzburg - 31

*Sochi - 35

*PyeongChang - 36

Salzburg does better than expected, loosing out by only 4 votes.

Second Round - 105 Voting

*Sochi - 51

*PyeongChang - 54

PyeongChang wins the right to host XXII Olympic Winter Games in 2014

[Guardian]

Yes. Only the 111 ACTIVE IOC members can vote on the 2014 Winter Olympics host city decision. And, as already mentioned, those IOC members from countries that are in the race cannot vote in the first round. If there is going to be the second and final round of voting, then the losing party with IOC members can cast their votes. If, for some reason, there is a tie in the final round between the two candidate cities, then JACQUES ROGGE MAKES HIS DECISION to determine the winner! It is the only time that the IOC President casts his vote in the race.

[Colonel Iredale]

My understanding is that the President IS entitled to vote, as an IOC member, but chooses not to, to maintain credibility?

I remember watching the IBC feed of the actual election in Singapore, where Jaques Rogge was, under official protocol, handed one of the electronic voting keypad box things, and then ceremoniously gave it straight back.

[dave199]

Yes. Only the 111 ACTIVE IOC members can vote on the 2014 Winter Olympics host city decision. And, as already mentioned, those IOC members from countries that are in the race cannot vote in the first round. If there is going to be the second and final round of voting, then the losing party with IOC members can cast their votes. If, for some reason, there is a tie in the final round between the two candidate cities, then JACQUES ROGGE MAKES HIS DECISION to determine the winner! It is the only time that the IOC President casts his vote in the race.

I really want to see a tie vote and Rogge making the final decision. That would be a sight, and probably bring much more excitement to such a lackluster and dull race for 2014 so far.

[Guardian]

My understanding is that the President IS entitled to vote, as an IOC member, but chooses not to, to maintain credibility?

I remember watching the IBC feed of the actual election in Singapore, where Jaques Rogge was, under official protocol, handed one of the electronic voting keypad box things, and then ceremoniously gave it straight back.

I am not quite sure, but I guess you can say that, when it comes to Rogge there. The same can be applied to Samaranch, when he was IOC president.

[cfm Jeremie]

I think it is indeed a "tradition" adopted by Samaranch and then Rogge not to vote during a host city election. According to the Olympic Charter, they are allowed to do so though.

[mr.x]

i'm not a supporter of Sochi, but i think they will win....in the first round, either Pyeongchang or Salzburg will be eliminated and one city will move on to Round 2 to go head on with Sochi.

[mr.x]

.....this is one of the few bid races i think that geopolitics will have less more of an influence than previous bid races. The actual image and bid plan of each bid is critical in 2014.

[Colonel Iredale]

OK, I might be biased, but I wouldn't be quick to call PyeongChang's momentum as slow, as there is a lot of background lobbying going on at the minute - not neccessarily in the public eye, but certainly towards the IOC membership.

[thatsnotmypuppy]

1 The first city dropped (or the lowest scoring city in case of only one round of voting)

2 The number of rounds to decide the winner (in this case, it is most likely either one or two rounds _ though there could be a surprise tie-break round in case of a tie in any of the rounds).

3 The winner

I believe we will see Salzburg sadly go first. I'm guessing 14-20 votes.

There will be two rounds.

Sochi will win by a very tight margin - no more than 6 votes.

[Sir Rols]

Interesting _ at this point we have a dead-heat (8-all) in predictions between Sochi and PyeongChang. About the only constant is we're all expecting Salzburg to make a quick exit, despite a lot of sympathy towards them, and that the final count will be tight.

Re the Germans being barred from the first round vote _ it's probably a bit of relief for them. On the one hand, the Austrians would probably have expected their neighbours to support them. On the other hand, if it came down to it I'm sure the Germans would prefer to hold their own games rather than accept the crumbs from across the border and would be quite happy to see it go elsewhere so they can have a go for 2018. This frees them from having to make a choice and potentially upset the Austrians.

[FYI]

Poor Salzburg. Pretty much the majority have set Salzburg aside as having absolutely no chance. But even with most of their chips down, they're still gonna give it all they got to the very end. Hopefully, that kind of determination & strong-will shall gain them some points & votes with some IOC members.

[Olympian2004]

Maybe we're just heading for another complete surprise, even bigger than a Sochi victory. Who expected in 2003 that Salzburg would be the first city to be dropped and Pyeongchang would perform so splendidly? Maybe Salzburg will be able to turn the race around just like Pyeongchang did four years ago -- and even (unlike Pyeongchang in 2003) win the election.

But maybe it won't. Who knows. It has become very hard recently to predict host city elections correctly.

[Kenadian]

I'm still predicting Salzburg will win.

This will likely be a tight race, but we really don't know who is leading and who is falling behind. They don't poll the IOC members. The BidIndex provides a predictive scale based on a variety of things, but there is only one body that makes the decision and there is nothing scientific that measures the way they think or what the result will be. Its all speculation. Well, there is one poll, but that's the actual vote and we never really know who will win until they open the envelope (or if a city drops from the ballot, then we know who is not winning).

[dave199]

I'm still predicting Salzburg will win.

This will likely be a tight race, but we really don't know who is leading and who is falling behind. They don't poll the IOC members. The BidIndex provides a predictive scale based on a variety of things, but there is only one body that makes the decision and there is nothing scientific that measures the way they think or what the result will be. Its all speculation. Well, there is one poll, but that's the actual vote and we never really know who will win until they open the envelope (or if a city drops from the ballot, then we know who is not winning).

That would be a big surprise that I'd be open to happening. I want either Sochi or Salzburg to win. I just want Tokyo to have a good enough fighting chance for 2016. If Pyeongchang wins than their chances are much more diminished. I bet those that are organizing the Tokyo 2016 bid are doing whatever they can to sway IOC members to vote for either Sochi or Salzburg...haha. It wouldn't surprise me.

[Citius Altius Fortius]

I agree with most of the posts: Salzburg will drop out in the first round

I'm not sure what is more decisive:

the next Asian winter games or a compensation for the sport-super-power nation RUSSIA for not winning 2012

I believe PYEONGCHANG will win...

[mr.x]

Maybe we're just heading for another complete surprise, even bigger than a Sochi victory. Who expected in 2003 that Salzburg would be the first city to be dropped and Pyeongchang would perform so splendidly? Maybe Salzburg will be able to turn the race around just like Pyeongchang did four years ago -- and even (unlike Pyeongchang in 2003) win the election.

But maybe it won't. Who knows. It has become very hard recently to predict host city elections correctly.

haha, i expected a Salzburg 2010 to be dropped out in the first round....it was so obvious that they would but no one would believe me.

i think it's pretty much impossible to predict who will win for 2014. for 2006, both cities were European. 2008, it was Beijing's from the start. 2010, i felt it was a neck to neck race between Vancouver and Pyeongchang. 2012, London vs. Paris right from the beginning. 2014....

[baron-pierreIV]

RoBIIndex: The Return of the Baron Index: the nationality/regionality of the sitting Pope in Rome will have an inverse effect on the choice of Olympic cities.

Since Benedict is German, Salzburg will be the first one to drop. They'll always have memories of SOUND OF MUSIC and the Von Trapps anyway.

[Sir Rols]

It's getting close now! Time to bump this back to the top. Anyone else want to get their picks in before the announcement. I notice a few latecomers are predicting winners but not predicting rounds or first out _ feel free to embellish if you want.

[baron-pierreIV]

* First out _ Salzburg

* Two rounds

* PC to win.

Round by round

1st round _ Pyeongchang 45, Sochi 37, Salzburg 20

2nd round _ PyeongChang 56, Sochi 49

[ghost1]

Okay, here are my detailed predictions:

1st round: Sochi 42, PC 39, Salzburg 21

2nd round: PC 59, Sochi 46