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Pick The Winner!


Sir Rols

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Okay, it's just a little over a week to go, and i can see a few people are now getting antsy on the board.

I was gonna wait till a bit closer, but there's no harm in starting the traditional "Pick The Winners" thread now (we did this for 2012, not sure if it's been done for earlier votes).

The rules are simple (especially with only three contenders). Everyone who wants to make their predictions should post:

* The first city dropped (or the lowest scoring city in case of only one round of voting)

* The number of rounds to decide the winner (in this case, it is most likely either one or two rounds _ though there could be a surprise tie-break round in case of a tie in any of the rounds).

* The winner

As an added challenge, though not compulsory, those who wish to can also try to pick the vote results round-by-round. Considering we may have a lot of duplicate guesses here, that could work as an effective tie-breaker for this contest to decide GamesBids best Vote Forecaster!

102 IOC members are elible to vote on the first round (Russia, South Korea and Austria are ineligible until they're cities drop out, as well as ther germans, it seems, with sliding sports taking place in Germany in Salzburg's plan).

If Salzburg is dropped first, this means three more voters may join the second round.

If PyeongChang is dropped, two join the next round.

If Sochi is dropped, three join the next round.

Rogge will only vote in a final tie-break if needed.

After the result is announced, I'll tally up everyone's picks to seee who got it most correct.

Good guessing!

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Okay, it's just a little over a week to go, and i can see a few people are now getting antsy on the board.

I was gonna wait till a bit closer, but there's no harm in starting the traditional "Pick The Winners" thread now (we did this for 2012, not sure if it's been done for earlier votes).

The rules are simple (especially with only three contenders). Everyone who wants to make their predictions should post:

* The first city dropped (or the lowest scoring city in case of only one round of voting)

* The number of rounds to decide the winner (in this case, it is most likely either one or two rounds _ though there could be a surprise tie-break round in case of a tie in any of the rounds).

* The winner

After the result is announced, I'll tally up everyone's picks to seee who got it most correct.

Good guessing!

We should also integrate the number of votes each city will get in each round just for fun to see who comes the closest. We need a list of all the eligible IOC members that can vote though.

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We should also integrate the number of votes each city will get in each round just for fun to see who comes the closest. We need a list of all the eligible IOC members that can vote though.

That could be fun! With onlym three contenders, we'll likely get more than just a few people who'll correctly guess all three results. Should we do a voting numbers prediction as a separate thread, or integrate it into this one?

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That could be fun! With onlym three contenders, we'll likely get more than just a few people who'll correctly guess all three results. Should we do a voting numbers prediction as a separate thread, or integrate it into this one?

I think we should integrate it into this one

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I think I agree....

First city dropped - Salzburg

No of rounds - 2

Winner - Sochi

Although I would prefer Salzburg myself, I think too many other factors are clouding their bid recently - we can always hope for Munich 2018!

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That could be fun! With onlym three contenders, we'll likely get more than just a few people who'll correctly guess all three results. Should we do a voting numbers prediction as a separate thread, or integrate it into this one?

Actually I think you should make another thread. People may get confused since you already set out the guidelines in the first post, unless you can edit it. I say just make another thread.

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I think we should integrate it into this one

Okay. If anybody wants to refine their vote picks to include numbers, please go ahead. It's not compulsory, but can be a fun way to refine the best tipster on the board. First up, though, does anyone know how many voting members will be taking part in the session. I'm not sure if the current membership will also have a few new members voting next week. Guardian's usually a great source for that, but will take anyone's advice on this.

I can edit the first post to include this. I'll just await the best advice I get on the IOC voting numbers.

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Okay. If anybody wants to refine their vote picks to include numbers, please go ahead. It's not compulsory, but can be a fun way to refine the best tipster on the board. First up, though, does anyone know how many voting members will be taking part in the session. I'm not sure if the current membership will also have a few new members voting next week. Guardian's usually a great source for that, but will take anyone's advice on this.

I can edit the first post to include this. I'll just await the best advice I get on the IOC voting numbers.

There are currently 111# members, 24 honorary members and 2 honour members. Juan Antonio Samaranch is Honorary President for life.

http://www.olympic.org/uk/organisation/ioc/members/

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Election of the 2014 Host City - Voting membership and regulations

25 June 2007

Electronic voting was used, for the first time, for the election of the host city for the Games of the XXIX Olympiad in 2008, on 13 July 2001 during the 112th IOC Session in Moscow.

The IOC President elects not to participate in the vote. The vote takes place by secret ballot, so as to ensure that members are not unduly influenced or pressurised. The electoral proceedings take place in a room in which only the IOC members and those persons authorised by the President by reason of their functions are present.

Any IOC members from a country whose city is a candidate in the election must abstain from taking part in rounds as long as the city is still included in the voting.

For 2014 this is as follows:

Number of IOC members as of June 2007: 111

NOT VOTING:

IOC President Jacques Rogge: 1

Nationals from the Russian Federation:

- Vitaly Smirnov

- Shamil Tarpischev

- Alexander Popov

3

Nationals from Austria:

- Leo Wallner

1

Nationals from Germany:

- Thomas Bach

- Walther Tröger

2*

Nationals from the Republic of Korea:

- Kun Hee Lee

- Yong Sun Park

2

Excused members: tbd on 4 July

TOTAL NUMBER OF MEMBERS NOT VOTING 9

Number of members eligible to vote in the first round: 102

* According to the Olympic Charter, German members must refrain from taking part in the vote because one sport facility in the bid file of Salzburg is located in Germany

N.B.

- In the event of a second round of voting, nationals from the country of the city which has been eliminated because it received the least number of votes CAN VOTE.

- The Honorary President, and Honorary and Honour members DO NOT vote.

In each round; each participating IOC member may vote for only one city. The votes of members not taking part in a round of voting or who abstain, as well as blank or spoilt electronic voting entries, are not taken into account in the calculation of the required majority.

If, after the first round of voting, no city obtains the absolute majority of the votes cast, as many rounds are held as necessary for a city to obtain such majority.

The city receiving the least number of votes is eliminated after each round. The name of the city is made public straight away and the vote continues.

If only two cities remain in contention, the one that obtains the greatest number of votes is declared elected.

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There are currently 111# members, 24 honorary members and 2 honour members. Juan Antonio Samaranch is Honorary President for life.

http://www.olympic.org/uk/organisation/ioc/members/

The latest I can google up is 102 members will be eligible to vote in the first round (the Russian, Korean and Austrian members can't vote until they're cities are voted out). Until further notice or correction, I'll go with that.

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Wow, didn't know Germany was banned from voting in the first round, but I guess it's because of the bobsled run.

Well here is my guess

1st Round

Sochi- 38

Salzburg- 35

PyeongChang- 37

110 Voting

2nd Round

Sochi-58

PyeongChang- 55

113 Voting

+2 Germany

+1 Austria

Though I personally would want a PyeongChang win to help the Chicago 2016 bid, I think that with Sochi's solid plan and enthusiasm, it will just scrape by PyeongChang.

I think this will be a VERY close race, and wouldn't be surprised by any city winning.

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The latest I can google up is 102 members will be eligible to vote in the first round (the Russian, Korean and Austrian members can't vote until they're cities are voted out). Until further notice or correction, I'll go with that.

Yeah, I got 102 members eligible to vote in the first round.

I've organized all the voting members in a list in alphabetical order based on their country. This may help people in deciding where there votes will be going if they want to use continental rotation and politics as part of their strategy.

Those members who are BOLDED are ineligible to vote in the first round unless their country's city is knocked out, then they will be eligible to vote in the next round. The President of the IOC Jacques Rogge is also ineligible to vote unless there is a tie in the final round between the final two bidding cities which would lead him to make that last final vote that will chose the winner.

LARFAOUI, Mustapha (Mr) ALG

HOEVERTSZ, Nicole (Ms) ARU

GOSPER A.O., Richard Kevan (Mr) AUS

COLES, Phillip Walter (Mr) AUS

COATES, AC, John Dowling (Mr) AUS

WALLNER, Leo (Mr) AUT

SEALY, Austin L. (Mr) BAR

ROGGE, Jacques (Count) BEL

HAVELANGE, João (Mr) BRA

NUZMAN, Carlos Arthur (Mr) BRA

POUND, Q.C., Richard W. (Mr) CAN

SCOTT, Rebecca (Ms) CAN

YU, Zaiqing (Mr) CHN

HE, Zhenliang (Mr) CHN

PALENFO, Lassana (Intendant General) CIV

HAYATOU, Issa (Mr) CMR

VRDOLJAK, Antun (Mr) CRO

GONZÁLEZ LÓPEZ, Reynaldo (Mr) CUB

ZELEZNY, Jan (Mr) CZE

HOLM, Kai (Mr) DEN

MUÑOZ PEÑA, Roque Napoleón (Mr) DOM

ELWANI, Rania (Dr) EGY

SABET, Mounir (General) EGY

SAMARANCH JR, Juan Antonio (Mr) ESP

KILLY, Jean-Claude (Mr) FRA

SÉRANDOUR, Henri (Mr) FRA

DRUT, Guy (Mr) FRA

TALLBERG, Peter (Mr) FIN

KOIVU, Saku (Mr) FIN

MITCHELL, Robin E. (Dr) FIJ

ALLEN, Béatrice (Ms) GAM

TRÖGER, Walther (Mr) GER

BACH, Thomas (Dr) GER

NIKOLAOU, Lambis V. (Mr) GRE

ROYAL, (HRH the Princess) GBR

REEDIE, CBE, Craig (Sir) GBR

CRAVEN, MBE, Philip (Sir) GBR

KALTSCHMITT LUJÁN, Willi (Mr) GUA

DIALLO, Alpha Ibrahim (Mr) GUI

FOK, Timothy Tsun Ting (Mr) HKG

SCHMITT, Pál (Mr) HUN

AJÁN, Tamás (Mr) HUN

GILADY, Alex (Mr) ISR

CARRARO, Franco (Mr) ITA

DI CENTA, Manuela (Ms) ITA

PESCANTE, Mario (Mr) ITA

CINQUANTA, Ottavio (Mr) ITA

RICCI BITTI, Francesco (Mr) ITA

HICKEY, Patrick Joseph (Mr) IRL

SINGH, Randhir (Raja) IND

IGAYA, Chiharu (Mr) JPN

OKANO, Shun-ichiro (Mr) JPN

KEINO, Kipjoge (Mr) KEN

LEE, Kun Hee (Mr) KOR

PARK, Yong Sung (Mr) KOR

ABDULAZIZ, Nawaf Faisal Fahd (HRH Prince) KSA

AL-SABAH, Ahmad Al-Fahad (Sheikh) KUW

KHOURY, Toni (Mr) LIB

LIECHTENSTEIN, Nora de (HSH Princess) LIE

LUXEMBOURG, De (HRH the Grand Duke) LUX

MOUTAWAKEL , Nawal El (Ms) MAR

EL GUERROUJ, Hicham (Mr) MAR

IMRAN, Tunku (HRH Prince) MAS

VÁZQUEZ RAÑA, Olegario (Mr) MEX

VÁZQUEZ RAÑA, Mario (Mr) MEX

MAGVAN, Shagdarjav (Mr) MGL

ALBERT II, (HSH the Sovereign Prince) MON

RUHEE, Ram (Mr) MRI

FREDERICKS, Frank (Mr) NAM

ORANGE, (HRH the Prince of) NED

BREDA VRIESMAN, Els van (Ms) NED

VERBRUGGEN, Hein (Mr) NED

GEESINK, Anton (Mr) NED

HEIBERG, Gerhard (Mr) NOR

KENDALL, Barbara (Ms) NZL

ALI, Shahid (Syed) PAK

SÁNCHEZ RIVAS, Melitón (Mr) PAN

DIBÓS, Iván (Mr) PER

ELIZALDE, Francisco J. (Mr) PHI

SZEWINSKA, Irena (Ms) POL

BELLO, Fernando F. Lima (Mr) POR

CHANG, Ung (Mr) PRK

CARRIÓN, Richard L. (Mr) PUR

AL-THANI, Tamim Bin Hamad (HRH Prince) QAT

SMIRNOV, Vitaly (Mr) RUS

POPOV, Alexander (Mr) RUS

TARPISCHEV, Shamil (Mr) RUS

RAMSAMY, Sam (Mr) RSA

DIACK, Lamine (Mr) SEN

NDIAYE, Youssoupha (Mr) SEN

NG, Ser Miang (Mr) SIN

OSWALD, Denis (Mr) SUI

FASEL, René (Mr) SUI

BLATTER, Joseph S. (Mr) SUI

KASPER, Gian-Franco (Mr) SUI

LJUNGQVIST, Arne (Professor) SWE

LINDBERG, Gunilla (Ms) SWE

WIBERG, Pernilla (Ms) SWE

MOUDALLAL, Samih (Mr) SYR

INDRAPANA, Nat (Mr) THA

MATTHIA, Anani (Mr) TOG

WU, Ching-Kuo (Mr) TPE

MZALI, Mohamed (Mr) TUN

NYANGWESO, Francis (Major General) UGA

BORZOV, Valeriy (Mr) UKR

BUBKA, Sergey (Mr) UKR

MAGLIONE, Julio César (Mr) URU

DEFRANTZ, Anita L. (Ms) USA

EASTON, James L. (Mr) USA

CTVRTLIK, Robert (Mr) USA

CHAMUNDA, Patrick S. (Mr) ZAM

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Damn, forgot to add the two German votes! Again:

1st Round (102 votes)

* Sochi - 38

* Salzburg - 25

* PyeongChang - 39

2nd Round (105 votes)

* Sochi - 55

* PyeongChang - 50

I was just about to tell you that ;)

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Wow, didn't know Germany was banned from voting in the first round, but I guess it's because of the bobsled run.

Well here is my guess

1st Round

Sochi- 38

Salzburg- 35

PyeongChang- 37

110 Voting

2nd Round

Sochi-58

PyeongChang- 55

113 Voting

+2 Germany

+1 Austria

Though I personally would want a PyeongChang win to help the Chicago 2016 bid, I think that with Sochi's solid plan and enthusiasm, it will just scrape by PyeongChang.

I think this will be a VERY close race, and wouldn't be surprised by any city winning.

Your total voting number are way off. Only 102 members are eligible in the first round. Since you eliminated Salzburg first, that means 1 Austrian and 2 German IOC members are now eligible to vote in the 2nd round to make it a total of 105 votes.

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Wow, didn't know Germany was banned from voting in the first round, but I guess it's because of the bobsled run.

Well here is my guess

1st Round

Sochi- 38

Salzburg- 35

PyeongChang- 37

110 Voting

2nd Round

Sochi-58

PyeongChang- 55

113 Voting

+2 Germany

+1 Austria

Though I personally would want a PyeongChang win to help the Chicago 2016 bid, I think that with Sochi's solid plan and enthusiasm, it will just scrape by PyeongChang.

I think this will be a VERY close race, and wouldn't be surprised by any city winning.

OK, didn't see that the 111 was the TOTAL IOC members. So my recalculated vote goes:

Round 1

Sochi- 36

Salzburg- 32

PyeongChang- 34

102 Votes

Round 2

Sochi- 54

PyeongChang- 51

105 Votes

Still very close

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Here are my predictions:

First Round (102 voting):

PyeongChang: 46 votes

Sochi: 35 votes

Salzbourg: 21 votes

Salzbourg is eliminated in the first round of voting.

Second round (105 voting)

PyeongChang: 54 votes

Sochi: 51 votes

PyeongChang wins the rights to be the host of the 2014 Olympic Winter Games.

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OK here goes:

First dropped: none

Number of rounds: one

Winner: Pyeongchang

Votes (of 102):

Pyeonchang 56

Sochi 35

Salzburg 11

I can't imagine the Koreans losing much support since 2010. The IOC can surprise in a tight race with many candidates (think 2012). But there are only 3 to start, one of which hasn't got a prayer. Were Pyeonchang to act more self-assured, Sochi might pip them at the post...but so long as Korean is excited while never becoming presumptuous, it's theirs to lose.

Since Athens the IOC loves to reward hard work, great planning, and colouring inside the lines. Pyeonchang has exceeded all requirements in each of these.

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