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baron-pierreIV

Who Says There's No Rotation?

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Looking at the sites of the last 12 IOC Sessions wherein they picked a future Olympic host city, it stands to reason there is ONE Official Rotation Rule: the winning city does NOT belong to the same continent as the new host city.

As in every rule, there is always an EXCEPTION; and that is when Lausanne is the selection city; when no other city wants to pick up the tab that year -- and in the last 2 Lausanne elections, they went to European cities. Similarly, IOC Session City #2, Seoul, has been the site of victory for 2 of the last Euro WOGs.

OK, let's start from 1986, the last year in which both a SUmmer and Winter host city were picked simultaneouly:

1986 - Lausanne - winners: (W) Albertville; (S) Barcelona

1988 - Seoul (Asia) - Lillehammer (Europe)

1990 - Tokyo (Asia) - Atlanta (NA)

1991 - Birmingham (UK, Europe) - pick: Nagano (Asia)

1993 - Monaco (Europe) - pick: Sydney (Oceania)

1995 - Budapest (E) - pick: Salt Lake City (NA)

1997 - a foregone conclusion: Let's play it safe in Lausanne...for Athens!!

1999 - Seoul (these hostings should pay back for 2014) - pick: Torino (Europe)

2001 - Moscow - pick: Beijing (Asia)

2003 - Prague (E) - pick: Vancouver (NA)

2005 - Singapore (Asia) - pick: London (E)

2007 - Guatemala City (NA) - maybe PyeongChang? (Asia)

So... a few conclusions and questions:

1. Without fail (except for the exceptions, as it is with every rule), the winner lies across the oceans.

2. No rotation, eh? Certainly looks very apparent to me. Say it isn't so, Jacques Baby!!

3. Come October '09, in Copenhagen: Are Madrid, Rome and Prague foolish to run??

Thoughts? Comments? Foolish or otherwise?

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I'm just a little confused. Are you saying:

1 _ That there is rotation in that no two consecutive (summer) host cities in recent times have come from the same continent?

2 _ The host city is always from a different continent than where the vote takes place (unless it's in Lausanne)?

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I bow in front of such evidences. ^_^

No need to get snotty just because it's very much in evidence that the winds will be against Madrid, Prague and Rome.

Rol, what I'm saying is: since Jacques Rogge says "there is NO Official Rotation;" then I'll take one step back and just say that an early rule of thumb to pick the winner (except in the Lausanne cases) is to bet on the cities that are outside of the selection city's continent. And if I were Falun, Salzburg, Sochi, Sofia, etc., I would wait until Seoul hosts the next WOG selection session, and it would be sure thing to go to another European site. That's all I'm saying since people are holding JR to his pronouncement. It's a little convoluted, but it's very Olympian.

And it seems that with Singapore, Guatemala, Copenhagen, etc., the IOC is even going out of its way to ROTATE the selection sites -- so making the guestimating for the S/WOG host city even a little simpler.

CAF, thanks.

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Alex Gilady (IOC member from Israel) today in the spanish media: "There is no official rotation"

http://www.europapress.es/noticia.aspx?cod...54205&ch=67

http://www.as.com/articulo/deporte/Singapu...asdaimas_6/Tes/

1992 Albertville (Europe)

1994 Lillehammer (Europe)

2012 London (Europe)

2016 Chicago? Tokyo? Rio? Rome? Madrid? who knows?

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I don't think people will necessarily see Sochi as a Euro bid for 2014. Thoughts?

Otherwise you're right Baron, the correlation is obvious

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I don't think people will necessarily see Sochi as a Euro bid for 2014. Thoughts?

Otherwise you're right Baron, the correlation is obvious

Sochi is a "euro bid",but don´t worry,the winner will be PyeongChang ;)

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Alex Gilady (IOC member from Israel) today in the spanish media: "There is no official rotation"

http://www.europapress.es/noticia.aspx?cod...54205&ch=67

http://www.as.com/articulo/deporte/Singapu...asdaimas_6/Tes/

Interesting that Gilady is still claiming that Madrid lost 2012 because Lambis Nicolaou (the Greek IOC member) mistakenly voted for Paris instead of Madrid in the third round of voting in Singapore whereas the official IOC version (backed up by Nicolaou) is that he didn't vote at all in that third round (although I can't recall whether this was supposed to have been a mistake or a deliberate abstention).

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Looking at the sites of the last 12 IOC Sessions wherein they picked a future Olympic host city, it stands to reason there is ONE Official Rotation Rule: the winning city does NOT belong to the same continent as the new host city.

As in every rule, there is always an EXCEPTION; and that is when Lausanne is the selection city; when no other city wants to pick up the tab that year -- and in the last 2 Lausanne elections, they went to European cities. Similarly, IOC Session City #2, Seoul, has been the site of victory for 2 of the last Euro WOGs.

OK, let's start from 1986, the last year in which both a SUmmer and Winter host city were picked simultaneouly:

1986 - Lausanne - winners: (W) Albertville; (S) Barcelona

1988 - Seoul (Asia) - Lillehammer (Europe)

1990 - Tokyo (Asia) - Atlanta (NA)

1991 - Birmingham (UK, Europe) - pick: Nagano (Asia)

1993 - Monaco (Europe) - pick: Sydney (Oceania)

1995 - Budapest (E) - pick: Salt Lake City (NA)

1997 - a foregone conclusion: Let's play it safe in Lausanne...for Athens!!

1999 - Seoul (these hostings should pay back for 2014) - pick: Torino (Europe)

2001 - Moscow - pick: Beijing (Asia)

2003 - Prague (E) - pick: Vancouver (NA)

2005 - Singapore (Asia) - pick: London (E)

2007 - Guatemala City (NA) - maybe PyeongChang? (Asia)

So... a few conclusions and questions:

1. Without fail (except for the exceptions, as it is with every rule), the winner lies across the oceans.

2. No rotation, eh? Certainly looks very apparent to me. Say it isn't so, Jacques Baby!!

3. Come October '09, in Copenhagen: Are Madrid, Rome and Prague foolish to run??

Thoughts? Comments? Foolish or otherwise?

Baron,you have convinced me and probably Jacques Rogge as well but the IOC will now be so embarrassed by your devastating evidence for 'unofficial rotation' that they will make sure that they compensate in order to correct this impression by deliberately voting for a European candidate in Guatamala (Europe is nearer than Asia) and a European candidate in Copenhagen in order to prove you wrong!! :P:lol:

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Baron,you have convinced me and probably Jacques Rogge as well but the IOC will now be so embarrassed by your devastating evidence for 'unofficial rotation' that they will make sure that they compensate in order to correct this impression by deliberately voting for a European candidate in Guatamala (Europe is nearer than Asia) and a European candidate in Copenhagen in order to prove you wrong!! :P:lol:

I thought that might be an unintended consequence of my little expose. If it changes Olympic history and patterns, then at least let it be called the Baron PierreIV-Paradigm Shift!! :):) And now picking the selection city will be even MORE contentious than the actual candidate cities!!

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No need to get snotty just because it's very much in evidence that the winds will be against Madrid, Prague and Rome.

whatever. bye.

P.S: For the sake of your mind let's hope you're right. :unsure:

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I don't think people will necessarily see Sochi as a Euro bid for 2014. Thoughts?

Sochi's very definitely a Euro bid _ at least for us non-Europeans. Maybe only a European could quibble, but geographically, culturally etc I don't see that it could be described as anything else.

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Sochi's very definitely a Euro bid _ at least for us non-Europeans. Maybe only a European could quibble, but geographically, culturally etc I don't see that it could be described as anything else.

Sochi is no less a European bid than Sarajevo was. But it is one of the borderline bids. Where Sarajevo is/was in the heavily moslem part of the ex-Yugoslavia, and probably in the securlar vein as much as Turkey is (altho of course under the heel of Tito), but did keep its little 'window-dressing' concessions to islam, Sochi will very much carry the imprint of ehtnic 'mother Russia.' The Putin regime hopes it will be its big showcase.

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Europe is nearer than Asia

In fact, all three are practically on the other side of the earth :huh:

Distance from Guatemala City:

Salzburg 10 thousand km

Sochi 12 thousand km

PeyongChang 13 thousand km

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Sochi's very definitely a Euro bid _ at least for us non-Europeans. Maybe only a European could quibble, but geographically, culturally etc I don't see that it could be described as anything else.

Geographically: Sochi is less than 300 km from the Asian part of Turkey

Culturally: over 100 registered nationalities among the 400 thousand permanent residents of Sochi

Thus, Sochi is a multicultural and intercontinental bid.

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In fact, all three are practically on the other side of the earth :huh:

Distance from Guatemala City:

Salzburg 10 thousand km

Sochi 12 thousand km

PeyongChang 13 thousand km

That's what I said.Europe is nearer to Guatemala than Asia! ;)

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That's what I said.Europe is nearer to Guatemala than Asia!

it depends on which direction you move.

If you go west Asia is nearer than europe. :P

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it depends on which direction you move.

Whichever way you go, both the nearest and the furthest point of the three countries from Guatemala is in Russia :)

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Whichever way you go, both the nearest and the furthest point of the three countries from Guatemala is in Russia :)

According to the stats given in depeche's post,Salzburg is the nearest:

Distance from Guatemala City:

Salzburg 10 thousand km

Sochi 12 thousand km

PeyongChang 13 thousand km

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Ah! But the BPOPS (Baron P/ Olympic Paradigm Shift) works on the longest distance theory!! Remember - more Mileage Points for everyone involved!! So, it will probably be PC!! :lol:

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Baron, I don't think this theory necessarily favors N.A. for 2016 in Copenhagen in 2009 (hopefully, it'll be the exception, though). Cuz if you look at the latter portions of European IOC Summer election sessions, all of them (with the exceptions of Lausaune, of course) have been awarded to Asia/(Oceania-Pacific Rim):

Moscow '01/ Beijing '08

Monte Carlo '93/ Sydney '00

Baden Baden '81/ Seoul '88

Munich '59/ Tokyo '64

Even the 2 Asian (Japanese) Winter Olympics were awarded in Europe:

Rome '66/ Sapporo '72 & Birmingham '91/ Nagano '98.

Hmmm, this doesn't look to favor Pyeongchang either.

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Interesting that Gilady is still claiming that Madrid lost 2012 because Lambis Nicolaou (the Greek IOC member) mistakenly voted for Paris instead of Madrid in the third round of voting in Singapore whereas the official IOC version (backed up by Nicolaou) is that he didn't vote at all in that third round (although I can't recall whether this was supposed to have been a mistake or a deliberate abstention).

I do remember watching the session vote that Nicolaou did complain after the thrid round that he hadn't had time to vote.

So I really think that Gilady is wrong here and that Nicolaou didn't vote by mistake.

Anyways, who cares? London is the 2012 host.

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Ah! But the BPOPS (Baron P/ Olympic Paradigm Shift) works on the longest distance theory!! Remember - more Mileage Points for everyone involved!! So, it will probably be PC!! :lol:

So which do you prefer,that the IOC go for their mileage points and pick Pyeongchang or adopt your paradigm shift and stick with Europe at the same time ensuring you of a place in the hallowed halls of Olympic Immortals ?? ;)

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I do remember watching the session vote that Nicolaou did complain after the thrid round that he hadn't had time to vote.

So I really think that Gilady is wrong here and that Nicolaou didn't vote by mistake.

Anyways, who cares? London is the 2012 host.

I know I know,but I still find it fascinating to hear of all the plotting and planning and scheming that goes into these Olympic campaigns not to mention the hilarious 'mistakes' that may or may not have affected the outcome! All very entertaining stuff!! ;)

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