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baron-pierreIV

a "What If..." Game

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OK, here's an interesting premise.  IF Athens had won the Games for 1996, then how do you think the succeeding sites (bor both Summer and Winter) would've been chosen -- and give you reasons why.   Part of your answers/scenario must include the 2nd winning city of that year, in the whole equation.   Here's my take:

1996 - Athens edges out Atlanta.  

2000 - a 3-way race between Atlanta, Beijing and Sydney.  I think Games would still have gone to Sydney.

2004 - race between Atlanta, Beijing and Rome.  They go to Atlanta.

2008 - 2 way between Beijing and Rome.  Beijing wins in inasmuch as the last Summer Games in Asia were 20 years earlier, in Seoul in1988 whereas 2 consecutive ones were held in Europe: 1992 and 1996.  

2012 - Rome and Paris - probably Paris since Rome only had it in 1960.  

Bets, gentlemen?

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Actually, this is kind of hard...if Athens had won 1996, Toronto could have made a decent stab at either 2000 or 2004.  Europe would have been hard pressed to get a Games until 2012 with two back to back in the 1990's and the USOC probably wouldn't have kept Atlanta for very long.  And then there's the Winter dynamic.

So here goes...

Athens wins 1996...OK.

With no American host right before it, Salt Lake easily wins 1998.

Sydney, Beijing, Istanbul, Atlanta and Toronto bid for 2000 with no Europeans in the race (they know with Barcelona and Athens before them, they can't hope to win).  The USOC considers dumping Atlanta or not bidding at all, having just won the Winter Games of 1998, but fulfills a committment to Atlanta and bids.  However, nothing really changes.  The Aussies win it in a showdown with Beijing.  Beijing is stung and vows that it won't bid again.

Nagano wins 2002.

For 2004, the USOC finally dumps Atlanta after 2 consecutive losses.  This time, though, they go with Chicago (NYC and SF haven't formulated enough interest in bidding by this time).  The short list includes Chicago, Rome, Cape Town, Toronto and Buenos Aries.  BA drops first.  Then Cape Town.  It is almost too close to call on Rome, Chicago and Toronto.  But with SLC only 6 years behind, Chicago could seriously drop.

Torino 2006 proceeds only if Toronto or Chicago wins 2004.  Sion wins 2006 if Rome wins 2004.

Beijing decides to return to the bidding process...nothing really changes though.  The bidders may differe - Toronto and Chicago may or may not be in the running - a North American win in 2004 ends a North American bid in 2008, but a Rome win in 2004 leaves it open for both.  It's pointless though.  Beijing wins it easily on the second ballot.

Vancouver wins only if Toronto fails in 2004.  Toronto cannot win against Beijing in 2008.  Otherwise, Salzburg defeats PC on the first ballot - 59 to 51.

The 2012 race looks the same.  The only difference is NYC.  If Chicago takes 2004, they don't get a shot.  If Toronto or Rome took it, NYC is still in the hunt.  If Toronto is still without a Games, they pull out after 3 failed bids and chase the Commonwealth Games or Expo.

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We can speculate....

1996 – Athens wins.

1998 – Salt Lake beats Nagano soundly.

2000 – Bids from Sydney, Beijing, Manchester, Berlin and Istanbul.  An U.S. bid is held off but Toronto tries again.  Beijing is left out of the final round in a tie-breaker with Sydney but Toronto still wins.

2002 – Nagano cleans up its act and wins over Sion and Östersund.

2004 – Bids from Rome, Cape Town, Stockholm and Buenos Aires.  Sydney bids again and wins easily in the first round.

2006 – Sion barely edges out Torino.

2008 – Surprisingly, Beijing still does not return.  What was considered a dry run for New York creates hard times for Paris, but not hard enough.  Paris wins in the final round.

2010 – In a surprise first-round vote, PyeongChang beats Vancouver, Salzburg and Torino.

2012 – Rome, Beijing and New York are back and fight hard to the finish.  With serious bids from Madrid and London in the mix, it’s anyone’s guess.

2014 – Torino, Harbin and Anchorage have all promised to bid if their respective country loses 2012, while Vancouver and Salzburg are looking to bid again.

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If Athens had won 1996...and they should have.  I believe that the following would have happened....

1996  Athens, Greece

2000  Sydney, Australia

2004  Toronto, Canada

2008  Beijing, China

2012  Paris, France

If Atlanta had lost 1996.  They would not be in the mix again.  The USOC would go to another city.  They chose wisely for the 1996 campain.  The only US city with BIG Sponsors headquarters and a BIG backer (Ted Turner) that could land the games only after 12 years since Los Angeles.  Without either of those things... Atlanta would not have made it past the first vote.  Thus leaving Toronto as North America's best choice and chance for the future.

Even with New York's bid for 2012.  Toronto is still the best chance at the next North American Summer Games.

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rjmac wrote:

Even with New York's bid for 2012.  Toronto is still the best chance at the next North American Summer Games.  

Well, not really.  Toronto's time has passed.  You are supporting a lost cause.

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How about this scenario:

1996: The IOC agree Athens is the right place to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the games.

1998: As a consolation prize for missing out on 1996, sentiment in the IOC leans towards Salt Lake City, which wins narrowly over Nagano.

2000: Europe is out of the running, so it becomes a battle between Atlanta and Toronto, who throw their hats in again, Sydney, which wins the Australian bid against Melbourne, and Beijing. The North American bidders play strongly on the fact that 2000 will mark 16 years since a SOG in their region. In the end the "anywhere but Beijing" vote falls in line behind Toronto in a narrow finish.

2002: Nagano and Muju fight it out to spread the WOGs beyond the Europe-North American nexas, with Muju getting over the line (but Japan alone later chosen to host the Football World Cup of the same year).

2004: Sydney swallows its pride and makes a second tilt at a bid. Capetown senses this could be new frontiers time and also bids. Osaka and Rio also try to go. Beijing licks its wounds from 2000 and sensing that this could be Asia's best chance for a while, makes an all-out charm offensive. By bid time, Capetown takes the African vote away from Sydney, Sydney is judged too similar to Toronto and tensions over Tianenmen have cooled. Beijing wins.

2006: Europe is getting restive and puts a record field in place. It comes down to Sion and Torino, with Sion winning.

2008: Australia recognises it has missed the boat and dips out. Europe fancies its chances again and throws in a glamour line-up: London, Paris, Rome, Stockholm and Madrid. The campaign is hard fought and comes down to London or Paris, with Paris winning.

2010: Denver and Vancouver are the only serious contenders, with Vancouver getting over the line first.

2012: Australia is getting desperate and decides to give it one last go. After losing twice, Sydnmey is dropped in favour of Melbourne. The US is starting also to get restive and chooses New York. Capetown, Rio and Moscow also bid. Melbourne is hampered by sentiment against giving the games to repeat host twice in a row and the games go to New York.

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If Athens had have won 1996

1996: Athens Greece

2000: Sydney, Australia (I think the games going to Beijing or Sydney were inevitable, I doubt any other city had a chance)

2004: Atlanta, or another US city, Chicago, San Francisco, NYC ect.

2008: Beijing, (Wins over multiple Asian bids)

2012: Paris is likely to get them anyway.

2016: New Frontier, Cape Town, BE, KL, Rio

2020: Italy, Germany, U.K, Russia ( I don’t have a crystal ball)

2024: Back to the US, Toronto pinged for misconduct and ejected from bidding....

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2024: Back to the US, Toronto pinged for misconduct and ejected from bidding....

uh oh,  I have a feeling Mr. X, Afransen, and rjmac, will be yelling at you in the next few days.

Interesting observations though!  Have a nice day :).

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Some very good scenarios, especially Kendegra and roltel (pray tell, what the h*ll is your avatar?).  Interesting how things might've played out differently, huh?

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Some very good scenarios, especially Kendegra and roltel (pray tell, what the h*ll is your avatar?).  Interesting how things might've played out differently, huh?

My Avatar's Fatso, the Fat-Arsed Wombat, the "unofficial" mascot of Sydney 2000. He was introduced as an alternative mascot by a comedy sportscaster duo and quickly took off in popularity _ even making it onto a official postage stamp when a gold-winning swimmer carried him onto the medal podium. The Australian Olympic Committee, worried that Fatso was taking the limelight off the official mascots, then banned the athletes from carrying him into the games after that.

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1996: Athens inches past Atlanta by a few votes, but construction and security issues force the games to be moved to Los Angeles in early 1993. An outraged Atlanta swears never to bid again.

1998: Salt Lake City wins by a wide margin, but when Athens drops two years later, Salt Lake City is forced by the IOC to give the games to close second place Nagano.

2000: America decides to put forward Washington, DC, which goes up against Beijing, Sydney, and Istanbul in the shortlist. However, because LA recieved 1996 after the shortlist was made, Washington is forced out of the shortlist. Istanbul goes in the first round, and Sydney wins over Beijing in a tie-breaker.

2002: Salt Lake City, an obvious front runner, is forced to drop its bid when Dick Pound reveals the votes for money scandal (I can have fun, can't I?). This leaves Muju and Ostersund in the final round, and Ostersund wins by just one vote.

2004: Seeing the lack of European candidates, Beijing decides to bid for 2004, along with Cape Town, Istanbul, Toronto, and San Francisco. Washington, DC drops the American bid after feeling humiliated from the loss in 2000. Toronto is seen as a favorite, but San Francisco is a surprise spoiler, and Beijing wins by three votes over Toronto, and four over San Francisco.

2006: South Korea decides not to bid after Beijing 2004, so the field is Torino, Vancouver, and Sion. Vancouver wins by a very wide margin over the other two in the first ballot, presumably because the IOC wants a European 2008.

2008: San Francisco bids again, as well as an all-star European line up: Paris, London, and Rome. Istanbul also makes the shortlist. As a crushing blow to San Francisco, it only gets 2 votes on the first ballot. After it, Istanbul and London are eliminated. On the final ballot, Paris beats Rome in a landslide 4-1 ratio.

2010: Europe decides to give 2010 a try with Torino and Salzburg. Also in the race are Santiago and PyeongChang. Through a major scandal, Salzburg wins by a landslide on the first ballot.

2012: With Europe effectively out of the running until about 2028, the bidders are New York City, Toronto, Rio de Janiero, Istanbul, and Mexico City. The USOC goes with New York City after San Francisco's humiliating loss in the 2008 race. Mexico City goes first on environmental issues alone, followed by Istanbul and Rio de Janiero for infrastructure concerns, and then New York City and Toronto go into tie breaker rounds, leaving New York City as the host city for 2012.

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Very good, Imagineer!! Very entertaining -- but you changed the one parameter that had to be constant - that Athens won the '96 Games.

1996: Athens inches past Atlanta by a few votes, but construction and security issues force the games to be moved to Los Angeles in early 1993. An outraged Atlanta swears never to bid again.

You did mean an 'outraged Athens' right?  Would that only have been true.  I like the rest of the scenario.   THanks.

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When I say outraged Atlanta, I mean that Atlanta, in this scenario, would have lost the games from Athens by a few votes. Had the IOC realized Athens had issues before it was too late, Atlanta would have won.

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I know its all hypothetical, but the IOC would never strip a city of the Olympics because of your Athens to LA situation, and by that I mean taking about the Salt Lake City Games.

Also, Beijing could never win by beating Toronto by 3 votes and San Francisco by 4 votes.  Those margins are too close to allow any city to get a majority.  And a majority of votes is needed, not just a higher vote count.

But so far, this has been a fun thread...

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1996 goes to Athens

1998, after 4 straight Olympics in Europe, Salt Lake City trounces the competition

2000 Sydney, Atlanta, Toronto and Beijing all make the shortlist, and with USA just hosting a games in 98, Canada just hosting a games in 88 and fears over Human Rights in China, Sydney wins easily.

2002 PC and Sion submit bids, Nagano doesnt get the go ahead due to Osaka 04. With PCs rush bid, Sion gets the go ahead.

2004 After the disaster that was Athens 1996, where some venues where not completed on time and some not completed at all(remember they only had 6 years compared to 7) and the fact that the budget tripled due to all the problems, only three cities submit bids; Osaka Toronto and Atlanta. With Canadas dollar in a free for all against other world currency and IOC fears of another Athens in Toronto due to currency problems,  it comes down to Osaka and Atlanta. With Atlanta making a third go of it, they get the win in a landslide first vote

2006 Nagano, PC, Toronio and Calgary (who won the right to be Canadas choice city over Vancouver due to vote buying by Vancouver) all give it a go. All three put forth excellent bids and its dead heat between the three cities, before Nagano is forced to withdraw due to vote buying. It comes down to PC and Calgary, and due to the IOC wanting a really good feel good story, Calgary wins it in a shocker.

2008 New Frontiers? Buenos Aires, Cape Town and Kaula Lumpar all think so, and are not worried about costs because of Sydney and all three are accepted into the shortlist along with Beijing and Osaka. In a shocker, Paris, Stockholm and Berlin are all left off the short list. In the vote a KL, CT and Osaka all fall in that order. It comes down to BA and Beijing, once again IOC members wanting to help peace in countries are torn between the two cities and it takes 5 rounds of voting between BA and Beijing to decide a winner, with the first 4 rounds between the two cities tying. Beijing wins by a vote and Argentina vowes it will NEVER bid again. A couple years before the Beijing games, secret documents leaked to World Media outlets show the bid was tied again at the fifth round and the IOC president flipped a coin to decide the winner.

2010 Nagano PC, Toronio, Bern all make the shortlist for the games. Bern pulls out a couple months before the vote due to low public sport, and PC wins.

2012 Toronto, Kyoto(Japan), Hannover(Germany) Paris, Rome and Stockholm all make the short list. It turns into a rather dull race. Kyotos sound olympic bid with very little enviromental impact and compact venue plan gets the win, while Toronto ponders a 5th bid.....

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How's this for a new worst case scenario.

1990 - In a surprise final show down, Belgrade wins the 1996 Games by one vote.

1991 - The 1998 Winter Olympics are awarded to Jaca in Spain.

1993 - The 2000 Games are awared to Beijing.  That same year, the collapse of Yugoslavia forces the IOC to move the Centennial Games.  They consider only past hosts and offer them to Montreal.

1995 - The 2002 Winter Games are awarded to Salt Lake.  But feeling an early vindication, Quebec votes to leave Canada.

1996 - The Second Montreal Games started off with stellar organization and appear to be almost perfect, but following the referendum they are suddenly boycotted by a bitter Canada and last minute funding and security are lost.  Brunie Surin wins gold in front of the home Quebec team, but the reputation of Montreal is utterly destroyed and Quebec as a nation is deemed an early failure.

1997 - Buenos Aries is awarded the 2004 Games.

1998 - A warm snap hits Spain and there is no snow for Jaca.  Ski events take place in Albertville.  Scandal sweeps through Salt Lake.

1999 - Torino is awarded the 2006 Games.

2000 - Tempers flare over memories of 1989 and there is a major boycott of Beijing by many Western democracies.

2001 - Argentina faces an economic meltdown, they resign the 2004 Games.  The Games are moved to Tokyo.  Dr. Kim from South Korea is elected IOC president.  Meanwhile, the 2008 Games are awarded to Havana.

2002 - Following the terrorist attacks, the USA cancels the Salt Lake City Games.  Although the IOC is displeased with Canada's boycott of the 1996 Montreal Games, the Games are quickly moved to Calgary.

2003 - The 2010 Games are awarded to Pyeongchang.  Months later, it is uncovered that the mountain proposed doesn't meet international standards and an even bigger bribing scandal is uncovered.

2004 - The Tokyo Games open but are a financial disaster because there are no sponsors - scared of scandals and sudden cancellations - and security threats following 9-11.

2005 - the International Olympic Committee files for bankruptcy.  The Olympic Movement is bought by Ted Turner who permanently relocates the Olympics Games to Atlanta.

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I love it.   Ya know...even though Turner and the Goodwill Games are history, there's still Mr. Trump who bought the Ms. Universe organization and moved that to NBC, lurking around.  Scary.

This is one of the most satisfying threads ever.   :D

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Interesting though that two of you mentioned Ted Turner and Atlanta 1996 - Mr. Turner was NOT a big supporter of the Olympics here - mainly because they were head-to-head competition with his own Goodwill Games - thankfully, they never took off!  

Ted Turner is an amazing man but has a HUGE ego - he could not share the spotlight in this town with Billy Payne!   In fact, once AOL Time Warner got rid of him and he had no control over his precious CNN and other networks, he packed up and moved on - he now lives in Florida.  So the town he helped put on the map is not even his residence any longer!

Although thankfully, his ex-wife Jane Fonda still lives here!   She's a great lady and is still doing wonderful things with local charities here.   And Sir Elton John still calls Atlanta home!  

Just wanted to correct a previous post about Ted Turner - he had nothing to do with Atlanta winning 1996.   And Atlanta is home to Coca Cola, Home Depot, UPS, Delta Airlines, etc.... which helped ensure good sponsorship of the 96 Games - when the IOC worries about revenue streams again in the future and they will, they'll remember that and NYC which is the BIG financial capital will get the nod to host!

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I'll do a quick one [will eloborate tomorrrow]

1992 - Awarded to Barcelona beating Amsterdam by 6 votes.

1992 - Awarded to Albertville.

1994 - Awarder to Lillehammer.

1996 - Awarded to Athens to commorate 100 years of the modern olympics. It beats Melbourne by 1 single vote.

1998 - Awarded to Nagano.

2000 - Awarded to Sydney beating favourites Istanbul and Beijing.

2002 - Awarded to Salt Lake City but re-awarded to Christchurch, Southern Lakes after the US announces plans to boycot the next 2 olympics over terror fears.

2004 - Awarded to Buenos Aires but re-awarded to Rome after an economic meltdown in Argentina.

2006 - Awarded to Helsinki.

2008 - Awarded to Beijing beating Istanbul by 2 votes.

2010 - Awarded to Pyeong Chang.

2012 - Awarded to Rio De Janeiro beating favourites paris by 13 votes.

2014 - Awarded to Calgary.

2016 - Awarded to Paris.

2018 - Awarded to Kosciusko [Australia]

2020 - Awarded to Cape Town.

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OK, Cape Town, what I want to see are the repercussions of having awarded the (2004) Games 8 years earlier as some parties have decried.  But the 8-year delay for Athens didn't really seem to help Athens in its preparations, the way other Olympic cities do.  

So - whimsical as some of the scenarios above air -- you must cloak your elaboration w/ a little plausibility as to what the 'much-maligned' host of 2004 could've done if indeed it got the honors 8 years earlier when sentiment supposedly dictated it.

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What I find interesting about this thread is that it shows that Olympic hosting is like a house of cards.  Pull one card out and it changes everything.

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Summer Games

1992 - Awarded to Barcelona beating Amsterdam by 6 votes.

The 5 candidate cities were :-

- Barcelona

- Amsterdam

- Paris

- Birmingham

- Brisbane

1996 - Awarded to Athens to commorate 100 years of the modern olympics. It beats Melbourne by 1 single vote.Athens faces huge problems mainly cost and building difficulties. The IOC are forced to relocate the games to Atlanta.

The candidate cities were :-

- Athens,

- Melbourne

- Atlanta

- Toronto

- Birmingham

2000 - Awarded to Sydney beating favourites Istanbul and Beijing.

The candidate cities were :-

- Sydney

- Istanbul

- Beijing

- Milan

- Berlin

- Manchester

2004 - Awarded to Buenos Aires but re-awarded to Athens after an economic meltdown in Argentina. The venues used are the planned venues of the 1996 games which were completed in 1999/2000.

The candidate cities were :-

- Buenos Aires

- Rome

- Lille

- Rio De Janerio

- Athens

- Istanbul

2008 - Awarded to Beijing beating Istanbul by 2 votes.

The candidate cities were :-

- Beijing

- Istanbul

- Paris

- Havana

- Cairo

- Kuala Lumpur

2012 - Awarded to Rio De Janeiro beating favourites Paris by 13 votes.

The candidate cities were :-

- Rio De Janeiro

- Paris

- Brisbane

- Dublin

- Los Angeles

- Hamburg

2016 - Awarded to Paris.

The candidate cities were :-

- Paris

- Hamburg

- Los Angeles

- Toronto

- Madrid

- Denver

2020 - Awarded to Cape Town.

The candidate cities were :-

- Cape Town

- Melbourne

- Los Angeles

- Dublin

- Warsaw

- Cairo

2024 - Awarded to San Francisco

The candidate cities were :-

- San Francisco

- Berlin

- Moscow

- Havana

- Cairo

- Prague

Winter Games

1992 - Awarded to Albertville.

1994 - Awarder to Lillehammer.

1998 - Awarded to Nagano.

2002 - Awarded to Salt Lake City but re-awarded to Jaca after the US announces plans to boycot the next 2 olympics [1 Summer 2004 and 1 Winter 2002] over terror fears.

2006 - Awarded to Helsinki.

2010 - Awarded to Pyeong Chang.

2014 - Awarded to Kosciusko [Australia].

2018 - Awarded to Calgary.

2022 - Awarded to Christchurch.

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1996 - Awarded to Athens to ... forced to relocate the games to Atlanta.

Would never happen because Atlanta wouldn't have a main Olympic stadium ready in time and a village would be tough to construct so quickly.

If an Olympic Games are ever cancelled because of a fear that the city wouldn't be ready, they would almost certainly go to a past host as the time line wouldn't allow a new city to pick up the torch.  Why would you take the Games away from a city that is 75% ready and give them to a city that would only be 25% ready and have much less time than the city that was stripped?

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Would never happen because Atlanta wouldn't have a main Olympic stadium ready in time and a village would be tough to construct so quickly.

While the first statement is true, Atlanta used dorms at Georgia Tech for the Olympic Village, so that wouldn't have been an issue.

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