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My Predictions


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Ok, so I have what a lot of people call "too much time". So during this "too much time" I made my predictions for the 2016 Summer Olympic Games. So here we go:

The Bids:

Berlin, Germany*

Chicago, United States*

Havana, Cuba

Istanbul, Turkey

Lisbon, Portugal

Madrid, Spain

Monterrey, Mexico

Rio de Janiro, Brazil

Rome, Italy

Tokyo, Japan

* - can be replaced by another city from country

Short List:

Berlin, Germany

Chicago, United States

Madrid, Spain

Rome, italy

Tokyo, Japan

The Vote:

Round One:

Rome - 25

Madrid - 32

Chicago - 21

Tokyo - 19

Berlin - 17

Round Two:

Madrid - 30

Chicago - 29

Rome - 25

Tokyo - 19

Round Three:

Chicago - 41

Rome - 36

Madrid - 26

Round Four:

Chicago - 58

Rome - 45

So as I said, I have "too much time". I really hope that I'm right becuase i really sucked at the Oscar and the Emmys this year.

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So as I said, I have "too much time". I really hope that I'm right becuase i really sucked at the Oscar and the Emmys this year.

I think these predictions suck big time as well. Atleast you gave it a try. :unsure: I doubt both Rome and Madrid make it to the final 3 in voting.

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well the more european cities in the race the better the chance for any one of them to make it to the final two..and the better the chance that those who voted for the other euro bids would give their votes to the remaining city..

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I don't know, 3 European cities seems rather excessive. Maybe the IOC will atleast let poor Istanbul in this time.

The trouble is the shortlist evaluation is heavily weighted in favour of technical capability, and it's hard to see a Euro bid falling behind, say, Rio, on that score.

Personally, I reckon the IOC should weight the shortlist more in favour of regions and trends they'd like to see the games move towards, but then I suppose cities that have put together excellent technical bid plans would whine then.

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Interestingly enough though, on a purely technical level, it's Madrid and Doha that will have the best existing main Stadia by evaluation time. The 2 US stadia (I am totally excluding LA at this time) are going to be retrofits-to-be: SF's will be a full structure with that new platform (stadium to be fully operational by 2012 season) whereas Chicago's will be an expansion set-up, a la London 2012 -- but both US stadia plans really won't be ready for T&F events until June 2016, when the US trials would presumably be held at the venue. Rio's similarly will be in an expansion mode, since the reports coming out are that it's only a 50,000 seater for next year's PanAms.

Tokyo and Rome, for the most part, will also need major, major retrofits of their venues. While Tokyo's a blueprint on Tokyo Bay; Rome's Olympic stadium, altho upgraded for soccer for World Cup 1990, probably needs more of a retrofit than the LA Coliseum which only hosted in 1984. But Rome's other venues are old and small -- built before there were some 200 countries and 16,000 media. And like that Caracalla Baths setting for wrestling in 1960? That simply will not do 56 years later.

As for Monterrey, how serious are they?

So, it is really going to be a most interesting mix of who really needs what to be built; and how they can credibly convince and sell the IOC on the idea that the Olympics will be staged without incident and at the same time leave a lasting legacy to the city/country going into debt for it.

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