bythebay Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 Ok, so the race for 2012 was unprecedented. Three of the "big four" cities were in the race together for the first time (Madrid and Moscow aren't a couple of small towns either) and it's unlikely we'll see another race like that in our lifetime unless NYC, Tokyo and Paris make bids for the same year in the future. It was understood that 2016 was going to take a step back from 2012 but is the race for 2016 destined to take a U turn and become a contest between smaller cities? Looking at the current conditions, Fukuoka and San Francisco seem to be holding their own against Tokyo and Chicago, while Hamburg may have a fighting chance against Berlin. Does it seem 2016 will follow the smaller cities or will the likes of Tokyo, Chicago and Berlin shine in the end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mainad Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 Ok, so the race for 2012 was unprecedented. Three of the "big four" cities were in the race together for the first time (Madrid and Moscow aren't a couple of small towns either) and it's unlikely we'll see another race like that in our lifetime unless NYC, Tokyo and Paris make bids for the same year in the future. It was understood that 2016 was going to take a step back from 2012 but is the race for 2016 destined to take a U turn and become a contest between smaller cities?Looking at the current conditions, Fukuoka and San Francisco seem to be holding their own against Tokyo and Chicago, while Hamburg may have a fighting chance against Berlin. Does it seem 2016 will follow the smaller cities or will the likes of Tokyo, Chicago and Berlin shine in the end? Well,I certainly wouldn't class San Francisco as a small town.It has an international profile almost second to none among American cities in my opinion and I suspect the likes of Fukuoka which has next to no international profile,will have its work cut out to compete against it! I would be very much surprised if Fukuoka were selected over Tokyo and the same if Hamburg is chosen over Berlin.I think you are on a much more level playing field with competing world cities as most of them have a similar international profile whereas some second cities like Hamburg or Lille or even,dare I say it,my own hometown of Manchester would all be better known than Fukuoka. That said,a completely unknown city can surge ahead of its rivals if it meets certain geopolitical requirements.Look at South Korea's Pyeongchang which almost snatched the 2010 Winter Olympics from Vancouver and is a leading contender for the 2014 Games.Who had ever heard of Pyeongchang prior to the 2010 bid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 I sure hope its Fukuoka. OK, so my guesses for the short list might be: - Cape Town, - Chicago/SF, - Fukuoka, - Istanbul, - maybe Rio? So that would represent 5 continents (Istanbul being a bi- !wink! city) -- the best geographically distributed Summer race in a long while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rafa Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 cape town wont be bidding for 2016..who will pay for it?..omg the athens olympic village is falling apart..seeing is def believing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 cape town wont be bidding for 2016..who will pay for it?..omg the athens olympic village is falling apart..seeing is def believing. OK. Then it'll be: - Chicago/SF, - Fukuoka - Madrid? (the quixotic European) - Monterrey (if it makes the short list) - New Delhi (if that, too, makes the S.L.) - maybe Rio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ñuto Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 OK. Then it'll be:- Chicago/SF, - Fukuoka - Madrid? (the quixotic European) - Monterrey (if it makes the short list) - New Delhi (if that, too, makes the S.L.) - maybe Rio? miracle! Baron includes Madrid in a short list! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgescuro Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 San Francisco is not a "large city" nor is it really a "small city." It has an international profile nearly equal to that of New York. If tyhe IOC decides to go "small," SF is there. If they go "big," SF is there. And all the while, the international profile is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOlympiadsW Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 2016 is clearly not going to be the race 2012 was for several reasons, most notably the cities actually bidding....I also think the door for 2016 as to who can win is much more wide open than it was for 2012...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 2016 is clearly not going to be the race 2012 was for several reasons, most notably the cities actually bidding....I also think the door for 2016 as to who can win is much more wide open than it was for 2012...... Funny -- you're one of the few thinking so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOlympiadsW Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 Funny -- you're one of the few thinking so. no I'm not, look at over hlaf the posts on here and you'll see not everyone is 100% convinced like you taht the Games are headed for the USA in 2016...2012 was confined to Europe, 2016 isn't confiend anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nykfan845 Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 Baron, I can understand why you think Fukuouka will win, but it is far from assured. Baron, I can understand why you think Fukuouka will win, but it is far from assured. The domestic race, I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOlympiadsW Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 it won't be Fukuoka....just look at the people who are supporting it on here....their the one's who want Japan to lose, and know that a Tokyo bid is a threat to their city.....forunately the JOC is more sensible than that, and I think their decision will confirm this at the end of the month when they present a very strong bid Tokyo as their candidate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 Baron, I can understand why you think Fukuouka will win, but it is far from assured.The domestic race, I mean. I'm not saying I think Fuk will win. I am just hoping that Japan might do another 'Leipzig' -- and that automatically enhances the chances of SF, CHicago, or even LA. What do you think I am, stupid? no I'm not, look at over hlaf the posts on here and you'll see not everyone is 100% convinced like you taht the Games are headed for the USA in 2016...2012 was confined to Europe, 2016 isn't confiend anywhere Are you off or on your Ritalin? You have such mood swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nykfan845 Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 I'm not saying I think Fuk will win. I am just hoping that Japan might do another 'Leipzig' -- and that automatically enhances the chances of SF, CHicago, or even LA. What do you think I am, stupid? Of course I do I understand, but I certainly don't think JOC would be that stupid . . . or would they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOlympiadsW Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 I'm not saying I think Fuk will win. I am just hoping that Japan might do another 'Leipzig' -- and that automatically enhances the chances of SF, CHicago, or even LA. What do you think I am, stupid? Are you off or on your Ritalin? You have such mood swings. wtf is your problem, just because I and other people don't feel the 2016 Games are 100% destined for the USA and that it is still an open race, you get all in a tissy....jeez as I have said before get over yourself seriously like it or not 2016 is a more open race then 2012 was, and it's anyone's guess who will win at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 Wow! So belligerent. Not necessarily. Obviously, I am not as pessimistic as you are. So I have a right to disagree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOlympiadsW Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 Wow! So belligerent. Not necessarily. Obviously, I am not as pessimistic as you are. So I have a right to disagree with you. how is saying the 2016 race is a more open race than 2012 was being pessimistic?.....and your onw to call anything or anyone belligerent on here.... 2016 is going to be a good race, lower calliber of cities overall I think, but still pretty unpredictable which is good for this site, since we all like to speculate or we wouldn't be here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 ...and your onw to call anything or anyone belligerent on here.... Do as I say. Not as I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOlympiadsW Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 Do as I say. Not as I do. I won't do as you say (and I think that is what the problem is...but what else is new with you, you start with anyone who dares go against you)....and you still never answered my question, but what else is new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 Maybe I choose not to answer it. Never mind. It doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kenadian Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 I don't think there are many bigger options after Beijing and London. Mayby Tokyo, but I'm not sure the JOC really wants the Olympics. I think the USA will fare well in the 2016 race if they plan a careful bid and don't get too cocky. I also get a feeling that Argentina is planning a bid. They had one of their best performances in Athens. And just like the 2004 basketball contest, the American's may be the pick to win but they aren't guaranteed the prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave199 Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 I agree that 2016 is more open than previous years. It is not 100% that it will be coming back to the USA but the odds are on their side. The only major threat so far is Tokyo, who should be selected by the JOC as their candidate. We need to wait it out some more to see what other cities will be joining the race to give a more accurate assesment of the situation. But overall, I think 2016 is pretty attainable for a nation in the Americas and Asia. Europe is pretty much out of the picture. Africa (Cape Town) won't be ready for 2016 and there is uncertainty about Rio 2016 and their capabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 Agreed. You can't take anything for granted. And the USOC is painfully aware of that I think -- that's why it's proceeding so super-cautiously -- and waiting to see what develops elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOlympiadsW Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 Maybe I choose not to answer it. Never mind. It doesn't matter. or you don't know how to....anyway I agree with Kendegra and dave199 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Rols Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 The signs are that the USOC have learned the lessons of the 2012 race and aren't going to enter the 2016 race as a cocky frontrunner like Paris. If they keep to their steady as it goes approach, they should do well. Though of course nothing's ever 100 per cent guaranteed (just as the Paris 2012 bid team!). From the reports we've had out of Japan, it seems the JOC is also trying to be prudent. Profile-wise, of course, Tokyo is far and away their clear leader but again the example of Paris 2012 shows that a world city trying to do the responsible thing and plan around mostly existing venues doesn't necessarily excite the IOC as much as a city promising a spanking new legacy. Fukuoka may yet surprise! While some Europeans have ruled themsleves out (France, Russia, perhaps Italy) and general geopolitical consensus seems to rule against them, I wouldn't be surprised if the likes of Spain and Germany are waiting to see who else declares before jumping in. They sure can't be ruled out. It's probably all shaping up as more interesting than I expected, and much more open. There;s still a year to go before the clear bidding picture emerges and there's bound to be some surprise bidders and disappointing drop outs along the way. If the prelimniary moves are showing anything, it's that we're not as good Olympic crystal ball gazers here as we like to think we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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