Rob2012 Posted February 5 Author Report Posted February 5 (edited) I wouldn't go that far (though guns is an added ingredient which makes things more volatile). A trajectory like Orban's Hungary with entirely rigged elections and completely cowed/captured institutions and media is the path the US is now on imo. But the US voted for that, so whatevs. More worryingly I expect Trump, Musk, Gabbard et al to continue the belligerence against former allies and act in Putin's interests much like Orban does, and we'll keep seeing the most hardline anti-Palestine stances too. In terms of how it affects the Olympics, it'll probably be more about perception than anything else, unless things really escalate. The world's appetite to see a celebration of America will be non-existent. It puts LA28 it in that same basket of autocracies which have hosted before i.e. the kind of hosts that have previously had threads like this about them. That's in line with our expectations for places like China and Qatar. However, for a country I used admire in many respects, which used to be the self-style world's greatest democracy, it's beyond sad. But that is where we are. Edited February 5 by Rob2012 Quote
sebastien1214 Posted February 5 Report Posted February 5 I don't believe in civil war. It takes a lot of ingredients to form a context conducive to an evolution towards a civil war. And I don't think that at the moment, these ingredients are gathered in the United States, or will end up being gathered. Look, one of these ingredients is that a civil war opposes two (or more) camps that contest the current state as a form of legitimate political organization. Look at recent examples of civil war: if you take Syria, if we make a very basic diagram you had on one side the pro-Assad and on the other the anti-Assad, who opposed each other on the form and the legitimacy of the Syrian state* (dictatorship under Baathist regime). You take Bosnia, it was based on the refusal to continue under the Yugoslav state and the desire to have their own state. And there would be plenty of similar examples. Except that today, if I am not mistaken, in the United States, neither side contests the State as a legitimate form of political organization: - Obviously the Democrats do not contest that, no need to elaborate I think - But neither do the Republicans**. Their speech since January 6th was based on "the election was stolen from us"; but if they are so offended by the alleged fact that the election was falsely stolen from them, it is because for them the election is legitimate (otherwise why cry when you lose the election?), but the election is the "social contract" between the people and the State that legitimizes the latter. If you vote, you accept the legitimacy of the State. (conversely, look at the Maghreb countries such as Algeria, which has some semblance of elections but where we all know that there is no democratic competition; in the elections that followed the Hirak, there were in reality only 15-20% of voters. Here, we can say that a very significant part of the Algerian people, by their refusal to vote, contests the very legitimacy of the Algerian state; without going into civil war since of course this criterion alone is not enough) To return to the Olympic Games, so as not to stray too far from the subject: the only "risk" that I see possibly for 2028 would be a boycott of countries like we experienced in the 80s. But 2028 is in 3 and a half years, it's still a long way off, a lot of things can happen, and at this stage I think it would be very premature to make bets on "will there be will have a boycott movement in 2028". *(this is a very caricatured and partially erroneous diagram; there are not two camps in Syria, there are more, a vision closer to reality would be to say that there were the pro-Assad, the Syrian opposition and a 3rd element with the Kurds; but even this 3rd element based the legitimacy of its action in the war on the desire to experiment with a "new" form of State, which they call "Rojava", based in particular on the political concept of "democratic confederalism" first theorized by Öcalan) **(admittedly you could tell me that the Republicans still contest the American State in a certain way, since there is Musk who is a libertarian, etc etc. But ultimately the current contestation of the Republicans against the American State is essentially economic. It does not touch the foundations of what we could call the "social contract" which legitimizes the State, and precisely Republicans pose themselves as the supposed guarantors of this social contract to justify their extreme positions, just look at Musk who sells himself as an absolute defender of freedom of expression) Quote
Bear Posted February 5 Report Posted February 5 4 hours ago, Quaker2001 said: (and yes, I'd be concerned about future elections, although that's a problem for 2028, not 2025) "that's a problem for 20XX" is how we got trump, so its probably better if we don't push back the talk of the next election until the year of said election Quote
Nacre Posted February 5 Report Posted February 5 4 hours ago, Quaker2001 said: Well, tell us.. what do you think won't go smoothly for the World Cup and LA 2028 that won't go according to plan? For one, if the US goes forward with Trump's Gaza "plan", the Arab states will likely be forced to reduce their relations with the USA or face revolt by their people. Other countries with large Muslim populations (like France and Germany) may also feel pressured to make some public statements against the USA. Widespread withdrawals of an American Olympics and World Cup are very realistic. Quote
StefanMUC Posted February 5 Report Posted February 5 Oh they’ll have a great time in Lausanne for the foreseeable future: https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lhhhz4o2z72b Quote
Bear Posted February 6 Report Posted February 6 well, if anyone has any concerns about LA28 bowing to trump pressure, their website has been updated to reflect Black History Month, with "HONORING BLACK HISTORY MONTH" in giant bold letters being one of the first things you see when you first load the site. Hopefully they keep up with this kind of stuff over the next 4 years... https://la28.org/ Quote
Bear Posted February 6 Report Posted February 6 7 hours ago, StefanMUC said: Oh they’ll have a great time in Lausanne for the foreseeable future: https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lhhhz4o2z72b Couple of thoughts: I wonder if this could be considered governmental interference, and a violation of the Host City Contract? Could this also be considered government interference on an NOC? If 1 and 2 are yes, would the IOC strip the Games from LA, and would they suspend the USOPC? Looking at the IOC Presidential manifestos, it looks like 1, 2, and 3 won't even matter because most of the candidates appear to agree with Trump. Sad! 1 Quote
Bear Posted February 6 Report Posted February 6 On a side note, I increasingly believe that a diplomatic boycott should (and probably will) be considered for the Games, and even more so for the FIFA World Cup matches hosted in the US. I hate that it's come to this, particularly as one who has been waiting for like half of their entire existence for the Games to come home, but we cannot legitimize this administration's actions in any way. Quote
cfm Jeremie Posted February 6 Report Posted February 6 3 hours ago, Bear said: On a side note, I increasingly believe that a diplomatic boycott should (and probably will) be considered for the Games, and even more so for the FIFA World Cup matches hosted in the US. To be honest, I think a diplomatic boycott won’t achieve much. Trump will still be claiming: « there were so many heads of state, so many of them… The IOC told me they had never had so many head of states before… In fact they were so many of them that we had to build the biggest largest and most beautiful presidential box ever. And the food, it was so great. They never had such a good food” 1 Quote
Rob2012 Posted February 7 Author Report Posted February 7 (edited) On 2/5/2025 at 5:30 PM, Rob2012 said: A trajectory like Orban's Hungary with entirely rigged elections and completely cowed/captured institutions and media is the path the US is now on imo. Whilst the headline might be projecting into the future (though possibly not that far into it), this article is very good. Orban's Hungary is definitely the most relevant comparison, and it's what the US is HURTLING towards right now... Edited February 7 by Rob2012 Quote
Bear Posted February 9 Report Posted February 9 well damn https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-02-07/document-immigration-enforcement-action "Federal law enforcement agents are planning to carry out a “large scale” immigration enforcement action in the Los Angeles area before the end of February, according to an internal government document reviewed by The Times." Quote
baron-pierreIV Posted February 9 Report Posted February 9 (edited) 20 hours ago, Bear said: well damn https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-02-07/document-immigration-enforcement-action "Federal law enforcement agents are planning to carry out a “large scale” immigration enforcement action in the Los Angeles area before the end of February, according to an internal government document reviewed by The Times." Why do you find this surprising? The vigilantes are making good on their word. Let's see how they are going to cope with the thousands of foreign fans who hope to come for United 2026 and LA28?? 😗 Edited February 10 by baron-pierreIV Quote
Bear Posted February 10 Report Posted February 10 8 hours ago, baron-pierreIV said: Why do you find this surprising? The vigilantes are making good on their word. Let's see how they are going to cope with the thousands of foreign fans who hope to come for United 2026 and LA28?? 😗 who said i found it surprising? none of the trump admin decisions have been surprising to me, but that doesn't stop me from being disappointed 1 Quote
Popular Post Bear Posted February 10 Popular Post Report Posted February 10 anyways i went to go protest in downtown today for the first time, i'm gonna try to get my friends to join me next time 4 1 Quote
baron-pierreIV Posted February 10 Report Posted February 10 Quote As I posted earlier (and apparently, one can't automatically quote oneself: Let's see how they are going to cope with the thousands of foreign fans who hope to come for United 2026 and LA28?? 😗 Olympic-sized visa problem looms over LA28 - Yup. And there's even one aftermath from LA'84, WC 1994 and Atlanta 1996 that I won't elaborate on in the hopes that the damned Twamp admin won't get wind of it and ruin foreign attendance. Quote
Bear Posted February 10 Report Posted February 10 The Whisky War between Canada and Denmark has been reignited as now both countries are "interested" in taking over California: https://ktla.com/news/california/thousands-of-danes-sign-petition-to-buy-california-from-u-s/ https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/canadian-lawmaker-offers-take-washington-oregon-california-new-provinces/LPFT7I4AYBGCLHBKVOB2TIFQOQ/ Quote
baron-pierreIV Posted February 10 Report Posted February 10 /\ Ha! They're going to have to deal with Mexico which of course, is also now re-asserting its rights to their former lands north of the present border! 🤩 I'd take the Danish socialized structure of society, the best-looking Mounties (all male) for security against the other 48 (Hawaii will be a sub-province of Novo MexiCali) and mariachi music will be the Official Music of the new country!! Quote
Rob2012 Posted February 12 Author Report Posted February 12 (edited) I wonder how long it'll take before leaders realise America isn't an ally anymore? Edited February 13 by Rob2012 Quote
Rob2012 Posted February 13 Author Report Posted February 13 (edited) Of course, it's what Jesus would want... Edited February 13 by Rob2012 Quote
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