In case of a US Electoral tie in November . . .

[baron-pierreIV]

. . . how the outcome will be decided after that.  Excellent ARTICLE on the discombobulated permutations of how to settle it.  VERY DANGEROUS too!! 

What happens if there’s a tie in 2024? Be ready for a ‘contingent election’ (aol.com) 

[StefanMUC]

I really hope the current dynamics continue and Harris will at least manage the same number of EC votes as Biden, maybe even plus North Carolina.

Because if it depends on only one or two states, or your scenario will happen, this will end up in the worst situation since 1860 I fear.

Now is the time to get rid of MAGA for good (also in Congress with MTG, Boebert etc), also for the sake of decent conservatives that still remain.

BTW our trip to LA/parks/Vegas/SF fell apart three days before flying out because half the family (including me) is sick. Travel insurance will hopefully pay, and when (fingers crossed) Coach Walz will be VP Walz next year, we can go then.

[Bear]

4 hours ago, StefanMUC said:

BTW our trip to LA/parks/Vegas/SF fell apart three days before flying out because half the family (including me) is sick.

hope you all get better soon!

[krow]

8 hours ago, StefanMUC said:

I really hope the current dynamics continue and Harris will at least manage the same number of EC votes as Biden, maybe even plus North Carolina.

Because if it depends on only one or two states, or your scenario will happen, this will end up in the worst situation since 1860 I fear.

Now is the time to get rid of MAGA for good (also in Congress with MTG, Boebert etc), also for the sake of decent conservatives that still remain.

BTW our trip to LA/parks/Vegas/SF fell apart three days before flying out because half the family (including me) is sick. Travel insurance will hopefully pay, and when (fingers crossed) Coach Walz will be VP Walz next year, we can go then.

i feel bad that you need to know this much about our insane politics to live in the modern world.

it's too early to know what will happen in pennsylvania but i feel she will carry wisconsin and georgia based on the vibes of her grassroots momentum, a similar version of which was very useful to obama.

[StefanMUC]

3 hours ago, krow said:

i feel bad that you need to know this much about our insane politics to live in the modern world.

it's too early to know what will happen in pennsylvania but i feel she will carry wisconsin and georgia based on the vibes of her grassroots momentum, a similar version of which was very useful to obama.

I hope you‘re right. As for „insane politics“, as a foreigner I probably shouldn‘t judge it similarly harsh, but having this EC system which now several times this young millenium alone has produced Presidents who did not win the popular vote (by far) seems to me deeply undemocratic.

I understand where it comes from and why it may have made sense at the time, but we‘re past that time. There is need for state representation in a federal system for sure (hey, I‘m German!), but the EC, the „contingent election“ or the fact that Wyoming has as much weight in the Senate as California are feeling like a caricature. 

I also read yesterday that due to population movements, in the next census „blue“ states will lose seats/EC votes (and those blue voters moving to red states will likely not be enough to turn them), meaning that from 2032 onwards, it will become even worse for Democrats.

None of those archaic constructions (also certain constitutional amendments…) will disappear because constitutionally it is almost impossible in nowadays political climate to get 2/3 of states to agree (or whatever the particular requirement needed is), so either people get the temperature down again after a decade full of vitriol by uprooting the prime responsible and his cronies. Or at some point if the will of the clear majority, most of which living in the wealthiest states, is again suppressed, that will have terrible consequences in a country where everyone can carry a gun.

[Olympian2004]

I am not sure whether we should be glad or sad that we were spared an electoral tie. In any way, this is the election result that probably many of us dreaded, but hoped to avoid at the same time. I now have to try to wrap my head around so many things - including the fact that Donald Trump will open the Los Angeles 2028 Games. I wonder which state the USA and its democracy will be in by the time that he will step up to that microphone in SoFi Stadium or the Coliseum...

[StefanMUC]

28 minutes ago, Olympian2004 said:

I am not sure whether we should be glad or sad that we were spared an electoral tie. In any way, this is the election result that probably many of us dreaded, but hoped to avoid at the same time. I now have to try to wrap my head around so many things - including the fact that Donald Trump will open the Los Angeles 2028 Games. I wonder which state the USA and its democracy will be in by the time that he will step up to that microphone in SoFi Stadium or the Coliseum...

It will probably be JD Vance by then. Not that this would make things better.

[Guilga]

Welp, my hope is that the loonies of the us fail to mingle with the loonies of mine...

[Durban Sandshark]

Don't forget that the 2026 FIFA World Cup will largely be under Trump's watch too now. Not too sure he's a fan of soccer like he is with (American/gridiron) football . 

[enkosia]

On 8/25/2024 at 7:51 AM, StefanMUC said:

I hope you‘re right. As for „insane politics“, as a foreigner I probably shouldn‘t judge it similarly harsh, but having this EC system which now several times this young millenium alone has produced Presidents who did not win the popular vote (by far) seems to me deeply undemocratic.

I understand where it comes from and why it may have made sense at the time, but we‘re past that time. There is need for state representation in a federal system for sure (hey, I‘m German!), but the EC, the „contingent election“ or the fact that Wyoming has as much weight in the Senate as California are feeling like a caricature. 

I also read yesterday that due to population movements, in the next census „blue“ states will lose seats/EC votes (and those blue voters moving to red states will likely not be enough to turn them), meaning that from 2032 onwards, it will become even worse for Democrats.

None of those archaic constructions (also certain constitutional amendments…) will disappear because constitutionally it is almost impossible in nowadays political climate to get 2/3 of states to agree (or whatever the particular requirement needed is), so either people get the temperature down again after a decade full of vitriol by uprooting the prime responsible and his cronies. Or at some point if the will of the clear majority, most of which living in the wealthiest states, is again suppressed, that will have terrible consequences in a country where everyone can carry a gun.

 

This demographic shift poses challenges beyond just politics. With California’s vast population, other societal risks rise, as seen in child abduction statistics california, highlighting how social structures and issues evolve with these political and demographic changes. Just as representation shifts, so too must attention to pressing safety and societal concerns.

As a foreigner, I’ve had similar thoughts. The idea that a system can produce a president who doesn’t win the popular vote seems off, especially today. Sure, it made sense when it was created, but now it feels outdated. I’m also concerned about the impact of population shifts—if it continues like this, it could really deepen the divide. It’s tough to imagine real change happening though, given how hard it is to amend the system.

[baron-pierreIV]

1 hour ago, enkosia said:

As a foreigner, I’ve had similar thoughts. The idea that a system can produce a president who doesn’t win the popular vote seems off, especially today. Sure, it made sense when it was created, but now it feels outdated. I’m also concerned about the impact of population shifts—if it continues like this, it could really deepen the divide. It’s tough to imagine real change happening though, given how hard it is to amend the system.

But this time though, the popular vote numbers so far align with the Electoral College tally.  So it's not an issue this time.  

[baron-pierreIV]

19 hours ago, Durban Sandshark said:

Don't forget that the 2026 FIFA World Cup will largely be under Trump's watch too now. Not too sure he's a fan of soccer like he is with (American/gridiron) football . 

Altho, the Official Opening Game is in Mexico.  Then all the other pools will start in 8 or 10 venues in the US.  If Team USA should make the Finals, the Orange Ogre will probably attend in Metlife!! 

[Durban Sandshark]

On 11/7/2024 at 11:23 AM, baron-pierreIV said:

Altho, the Official Opening Game is in Mexico.  Then all the other pools will start in 8 or 10 venues in the US.  If Team USA should make the Finals, the Orange Ogre will probably attend in Metlife!! 

Of which is why I say "largely" with respect to matches also being played in Canada and Mexico. Last part being at his stomping grounds is going to be scary...

[Olympian2004]

On 11/6/2024 at 9:42 PM, Guilga said:

Welp, my hope is that the loonies of the us fail to mingle with the loonies of mine...

Yes, I wonder whether Lula will be the next president to be replaced by a former right-wing populist president doing his comeback. Or is Bolsonaro still ineligible for re-election?

[Guilga]

8 minutes ago, Olympian2004 said:

Yes, I wonder whether Lula will be the next president to be replaced by a former right-wing populist president doing his comeback. Or is Bolsonaro still ineligible for re-election?

For now, he still is and i hope he remains like that forever.

[sebastien1214]

If we can add a little optimism, there is a country that today has a chance of going the opposite way: Hungary. Orban has never been so threatened as at this moment.

[StefanMUC]

18 minutes ago, sebastien1214 said:

If we can add a little optimism, there is a country that today has a chance of going the opposite way: Hungary. Orban has never been so threatened as at this moment.

I wish, but next elections in Hungary are only in 2026, and until then I guess Vik & his pal Vlad will ensure that Magyar and his party are sidelined one way or another, just like previous potential challengers.

[sebastien1214]

12 minutes ago, StefanMUC said:

I wish, but next elections in Hungary are only in 2026, and until then I guess Vik & his pal Vlad will ensure that Magyar and his party are sidelined one way or another, just like previous potential challengers.

Actually I am rather optimistic about this, because Magyar (Orban's number one rival) has publicly spoken out against sending troops and weapons to Ukraine (which makes him less of a threat to Putin); and more generally, the Orban government has never been as unpopular as it has been in the last year with a series of big scandals, which is in contrast to all the previous attempts by the Hungarian opposition where they had no big scandal to take advantage of. Plus, of course, inflation which, generally speaking in politics, always benefits the opposition as we saw in this year's elections.

Now yes, they have to hold out until 2026, without the opposition's hope running out. This is perhaps the biggest challenge for Magyar at the moment, how to hold out for two years.