Who Do You Think Will Win 2014?

[argee]

This whole bidding race for 2014 is so very similar to the race for 2010. Once again there is no raging HOT favourite. In 2010 it was expected that it would go down to the wire between Vancouver and Salzburg, but instead Salzburg went out in the first round with a scandalously low number of votes and PyeongChang came within a couple of votes of pulling off the biggest upset since Atlanta '96. Now in the contest for 2014, one would expect that it will come down to a final vote between PyeongChang and Salzburg, so those two better watch out for Sochi.

Personally my tip is that PyeongChang will win. It has a compact venue plan (the IOC loves those). It has also secured the rights to several major winter sports events in the next few years (the winter sports federations will love that). It came very close to winning 2010. It possesses a surprisingly large regional population and hence an extensive infrastructural network. Asia last hosted a Winter Games way back in 1998. There are no obvious downsides or obstacles to awarding PyeongChang the Games.

Salzburg, on the other hand, while it is leading on the BidIndex, it has some things going against it. Yes, Austria is a winter sports loving nation and is a proven winter sports event host, but I can't for the life of me figure out why they couldn't find a sliding course to use inside their own country. I know that Innsbruck MUST have one and it isn't that far away from Salzburg for one venue. Not to mention recent former bids from Graz and Klagenfurt: Where were they intending on holding the luge/bob competitions? The IOC will NEVER EVER award the Games if one sport is being held in another country, regardless of whether or not the venue is closer than the closest one in the country hosting the Games. Nuff said.

While Sochi is the underdog, its major stumbling blocks are its lack of international profile and inexperience in hosting sports events. Also, it is only now commited to improving infrastructure that will be needed at Games time. I think that a bid now will raise its profile (like PyeongChang achieved in its 2010 bid) and set it up for a much more solid and competitive bid in 2018. As has been mentioned in this forum previously, it is surprising that a winter sports powerhouse like Russia has not yet hosted the Winter Olympics and Sochi appears to be its best chance.

So, I wont be surprised if PyeongChang actually manages to win in Guatemala in the first round of voting.

[The Moose]

In my view, there is no doubt that Salzburg is the best candidate, at least on the technical level, as reflected in the GB bid index. They have a very good record in hosting winter sport events, very good infrastructure, beautiful sceneries and towns, and is a leading winter sport nation. Russia is a great winter sport nation, but very little of the Sochi infrastructure is in place yet, and in the background the seemingly insurmountable and often violent political problems of the Caucasus looms. Korea, well, is just starting to become a winter sport nation (in skating), and have very little experience in staging winter sport events.

Having said that, I wonder how much role tactics for later bids play in the 2014 vote. As already pointed out in the blogg of thatsnotmypuppy, Japan would probably not like PC to win as that would make Tokyo 2016 a very hard sell. Similarly, US, have a big interest in sending the 2014 WOG to Korea. (Baron's PC support may not be entirely coincidental...)

At the same time, there are a lot of aspiring 2018 hosts in Europe that does not want Salzburg to succeed either (Check http://www.olympics2018.org, in addition to the hosts mentioned there, Ukraine apparantly want to try as well). PC will be a good choice for these as that would leave the 2018 race wide open or even a purely European affair. Sochi would not be too bad either, as it is almost in Asia and exotic enough to contrast any other European bidder with the possible exception of Ukraine. The worst candidate would be Salzburg, and nightmares over all nightmares would be Salzburg 2014 followed by Sochi 2018, since this would probably delay another (Western) European WOG until 2026.

All in all, there are a lot of tactical reasons that PC will come out on top in the 2014 bid, even if this would leave Salzburg as an unlucky Falun of the Alps....

....but I don't think anybody cares about that sliding events of the Salzburg bid takes place a few km across the border. Who actually take any interest in the sliding sports except cartoonists and Prince Albert and the like?

[argee]

Just know that if PyeongChang does win, watch out for the Koreans to bribe every judge and surprisingly win all of the Figure Skating gold medals. If you don't understand my concern, just do a little research about the boxing competitions at Seoul '88. Very dodgy. I guess it'll be silver for Michelle Kwan again.

P.S. Let Salzburg have another bid or two before comparing it to POOR POOR honest rule-abiding Falun. They were robbed by the IOC's shamelessly unsubtle 1992 Barcelona-Albertville axis put in place to kill off the chances of Paris and deliver the Summer Games to Casa dos Samaranch. I mean, Albertville, how could Falun lose to Albertville. Albertville was a scar on the Winter Olympics that was only healed by the gloriously well organised 1994 Games at Lillehammer. Falun 1992 would have done a much better job than the chaotic decentralised madness that was Albertville. And that's my two cents.

[Guardian]

In my view, there is no doubt that Salzburg is the best candidate, at least on the technical level, as reflected in the GB bid index. They have a very good record in hosting winter sport events, very good infrastructure, beautiful sceneries and towns, and is a leading winter sport nation. Russia is a great winter sport nation, but very little of the Sochi infrastructure is in place yet, and in the background the seemingly insurmountable and often violent political problems of the Caucasus looms. Korea, well, is just starting to become a winter sport nation (in skating), and have very little experience in staging winter sport events.

Having said that, I wonder how much role tactics for later bids play in the 2014 vote. As already pointed out in the blogg of thatsnotmypuppy, Japan would probably not like PC to win as that would make Tokyo 2016 a very hard sell. Similarly, US, have a big interest in sending the 2014 WOG to Korea. (Baron's PC support may not be entirely coincidental...)

At the same time, there are a lot of aspiring 2018 hosts in Europe that does not want Salzburg to succeed either (Check http://www.olympics2018.org, in addition to the hosts mentioned there, Ukraine apparantly want to try as well). PC will be a good choice for these as that would leave the 2018 race wide open or even a purely European affair. Sochi would not be too bad either, as it is almost in Asia and exotic enough to contrast any other European bidder with the possible exception of Ukraine. The worst candidate would be Salzburg, and nightmares over all nightmares would be Salzburg 2014 followed by Sochi 2018, since this would probably delay another (Western) European WOG until 2026.

All in all, there are a lot of tactical reasons that PC will come out on top in the 2014 bid, even if this would leave Salzburg as an unlucky Falun of the Alps....

....but I don't think anybody cares about that sliding events of the Salzburg bid takes place a few km across the border. Who actually take any interest in the sliding sports except cartoonists and Prince Albert and the like?

Best on the technical level, huh? That may be the case, but some of us GB members here can attest to how far that goes, when it comes to the ultimate IOC host city vote in the past. We have this kind of discussion forever here and I don't think it will change much or at all. There will always be the "chef's 'special of the day'" factor that will play spoiler for any candidate city for some quirky reason or two.

[Guardian]

Just know that if PyeongChang does win, watch out for the Koreans to bribe every judge and surprisingly win all of the Figure Skating gold medals. If you don't understand my concern, just do a little research about the boxing competitions at Seoul '88. Very dodgy. I guess it'll be silver for Michelle Kwan again.

P.S. Let Salzburg have another bid or two before comparing it to POOR POOR honest rule-abiding Falun. They were robbed by the IOC's shamelessly unsubtle 1992 Barcelona-Albertville axis put in place to kill off the chances of Paris and deliver the Summer Games to Casa dos Samaranch. I mean, Albertville, how could Falun lose to Albertville. Albertville was a scar on the Winter Olympics that was only healed by the gloriously well organised 1994 Games at Lillehammer. Falun 1992 would have done a much better job than the chaotic decentralised madness that was Albertville. And that's my two cents.

Well, Falun lost to the likes of Calgary, too, you know. Falun had some venues in places where Calgary had none and had to built all of them from scratch. Unfortunately, someone over there had an idea to use "political points" against the Calgary bid and it backfired as an example. So, I know it was not easy for the Swedish NOC to lose all those Olympic Winter Games bids in the past. Sure, I would love to see a Swedish Olympic Winter Games to finally be held in my lifetime, but the NOC itself has to look carefully and find out why it seems to get "punished" like that from the IOC that many times.

[Guardian]

So, I wont be surprised if PyeongChang actually manages to win in Guatemala in the first round of voting.

Like the way SLC got the 2002 Winter Olympics? I really doubt that. Never mind what came after that 1995 IOC vote and let us leave it at that. This topic is no place to discuss about that upsetting episode in the IOC's history and we need to move on; thank you very much.

[Guardian]

Now, the next phase of the 2014 Winter Olympics sweepstakes for the 3 candidate cities will be the IOC inspections by the Evaluation Commission, chaired by IOC VP Mr. Chiharu Igaya:

Link: IOC: Candidate Procedure 2014

[jawnbc]

Ignorant. And for which company are you serving as international ambassador. Peddle your offensive stereotypes elsewhere. Please.

Just know that if PyeongChang does win, watch out for the Koreans to bribe every judge and surprisingly win all of the Figure Skating gold medals. If you don't understand my concern, just do a little research about the boxing competitions at Seoul '88. Very dodgy. I guess it'll be silver for Michelle Kwan again.

P.S. Let Salzburg have another bid or two before comparing it to POOR POOR honest rule-abiding Falun. They were robbed by the IOC's shamelessly unsubtle 1992 Barcelona-Albertville axis put in place to kill off the chances of Paris and deliver the Summer Games to Casa dos Samaranch. I mean, Albertville, how could Falun lose to Albertville. Albertville was a scar on the Winter Olympics that was only healed by the gloriously well organised 1994 Games at Lillehammer. Falun 1992 would have done a much better job than the chaotic decentralised madness that was Albertville. And that's my two cents.

[The Moose]

Well, Falun lost to the likes of Calgary, too, you know. Falun had some venues in places where Calgary had none and had to built all of them from scratch. Unfortunately, someone over there had an idea to use "political points" against the Calgary bid and it backfired as an example. So, I know it was not easy for the Swedish NOC to lose all those Olympic Winter Games bids in the past. Sure, I would love to see a Swedish Olympic Winter Games to finally be held in my lifetime, but the NOC itself has to look carefully and find out why it seems to get "punished" like that from the IOC that many times.

One reason that Falun was "punished", was of course the 503 km Falun-Åre distance (or for the 1984-bid, the 896 km Gothenburg-Åre distance). Only in 1994 race did they come to senses and pushed Østersund-Åre (100 km), but this was then narrowly beaten by Lillehammer. 1998 and 2002 was too soon after Lillehammer. Sure, the Swedes have been unlucky/unwise in their bidding strategy, but not everything can be explained by conspiracies....

[verict]

Just know that if PyeongChang does win, watch out for the Koreans to bribe every judge and surprisingly win all of the Figure Skating gold medals. If you don't understand my concern, just do a little research about the boxing competitions at Seoul '88. Very dodgy. I guess it'll be silver for Michelle Kwan again.

P.S. Let Salzburg have another bid or two before comparing it to POOR POOR honest rule-abiding Falun. They were robbed by the IOC's shamelessly unsubtle 1992 Barcelona-Albertville axis put in place to kill off the chances of Paris and deliver the Summer Games to Casa dos Samaranch. I mean, Albertville, how could Falun lose to Albertville. Albertville was a scar on the Winter Olympics that was only healed by the gloriously well organised 1994 Games at Lillehammer. Falun 1992 would have done a much better job than the chaotic decentralised madness that was Albertville. And that's my two cents.

^ did some korea girl dump your ass or something? you sure are making yourself heard in making ignorant comments about the korean bid without any resources to back your statement.

bitterness is not attractive =)

[Guardian]

I am not suggesting conspiracies, if that means much nowadays. Besides, when someone starts mentioning about using political boycotts as a criteria against a competing OLYMPIC bid, then politics in general ends up showing its ugly head, no matter what. Of course, that seems to be the norm in a most unfortunate sense. Never mind, about the time of Calgary's last international Olympic bid:

1. the IOC was in major trouble;

2. Juan Antonio Samaranch was chosen to run the beleaguered organization, despite his past;

3. out of the 14 Winter Olympics that were or was to be hosted, 11 of them were in Europe. Japan hosted Asia's only OWG in 1972 and the USA had just Lake Placid for 1932 & 1980. Call me ignorant, but isn't that a little bit much of a narrowed focus for the Winter Olympics even then?

4. when Calgary did win, you want to know what happened afterward? Some misguided people there started to call the CAGLIARI mayor about his achievement. Excuse me? When that Italian city get in the fray, if Cortina d'Ampezzo was the Italian candidate? Never mind that Calgary's mayor then, Ralph Klein, was sitting amongst them! Sheesh. Talk about an organization needing fresh new ideas for sure.

Anyway, even though Falun did have a big case to want to host the 1988 Winter Olympics, one thing I remembered from reading a book, made by Frank King, suggested that if Calgary was ever going to win an Olympic bid, the bid committee had to kowtow to "European ideas and ways of thinking." Also, to never give in to "absurd accusations by those competing bids." Calgary did not learn that lesson twice before and paid the consequences of that. Most of all, according to him in his book, those exact hoops showed themselves big time ON CUE in the whole bidding process in general, especially in the final months leading to and during the 1981 Baden-Baden IOC meeting.

It also showed big time, when I read another source, that the ABC TV network and other "non-European" entities of sorts gave the Calgary organizers huge sums of revenue, courtesy of the so-called new fangled IOC marketing schemes at the time. That, in compliments of Canada's Richard Pound. Yes, the same Richard Pound that is the current head of WADA. Yes, the same Pound that went to the podium in behalf of the Calgary bid to talk about how the Moscow 1980 boycott incident, which was a SUMMER OLYMPICS, is to not cloud the vote for the WINTER OLYMPICS whatsoever. Do you know where this is going? He was reported to have known that BOTH Falun and Cortina bid committees were going to use that very Moscow 1980 notion against the Canadian bid from "reputable sources." Guess what? According to the Richard Pound "supporters camp", it was the case. Of course, before the final vote, there was a lot of "noise" about how Calgary will LOSE BIG TIME and will not get far in the end. Even some of the reporters in the IOC meeting up that point have commented that it was going to be a Falun versus Cortina contest. Calgary was never in their radar to some of them. Hence, the phone call to that Italian mayor afterward.

As for what transpired after the vote was taken, it seemed to me that most European entities that deal with the Olympic Movement in any capacity still scoffed on the idea of a Canadian Winter Olympics then. Especially, when it came to the amounts of revenue they gave to the Calgary organizers and the IOC overall. Sure, some European companies and TV broadcasters supported OCO'88 then, but it supposedly was pale in comparison to the amounts for Sarajevo 1984 and for Albertville 1992. That, indirectly, could have been a suggestion that the IOC made a "wrong decision" in their eyes about choosing Calgary. Oh, well, the past is the past, isn't it?

[Guardian]

Now, the next phase of the 2014 Winter Olympics sweepstakes for the 3 candidate cities will be the IOC inspections by the Evaluation Commission, chaired by IOC VP Mr. Chiharu Igaya:

Link: IOC: Candidate Procedure 2014

First of all, I got to stop talking that much in one post. Now, getting back to the topic at hand, it is one month left before PyeongChang gets to be in the IOC inspections spotlight.

[Guardian]

A bit late here, but it is just now less than a month before Sochi gets their IOC inspections. As for Salzburg, it is tied in with the exact number dates as PyeongChang, but they take place in March instead.

[Guardian]

PyeongChang's evaluation is done. Next, in this week, it will be the Russian city of Sochi's turn to face the IOC Evaluation Commission.

[Marit]

PyeongChang's evaluation is done. Next, in this week, it will be the Russian city of Sochi's turn to face the IOC Evaluation Commission.

Korea will win and I am sure they will organize an excellent Olympics!

Reasoning: clearly everyone in short list is able to arrange great games. The decisive factors:

1. North Korea agreed with the "world" about nuclear weapons. Politically it is best message to the world, to let Korea host the Games!

2. Asia (except Japan) never hosted a winter games.....this century will be Asia's century, also in sports!!!.......after Torino (very close distance to Salzburg....share same mountains: the Alps) and Vancuver (that represents the American continent)...it is time for a truly Asian games!

I voted Pyongchang 2014,

please respect my decision as obligatory and binding one!

It must be Koreaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

[SochiFan]

Korea will win and I am sure they will organize an excellent Olympics!

Reasoning: clearly everyone in short list is able to arrange great games. The decisive factors:

1. North Korea agreed with the "world" about nuclear weapons. Politically it is best message to the world, to let Korea host the Games!

2. Asia (except Japan) never hosted a winter games.....this century will be Asia's century, also in sports!!!.......after Torino (very close distance to Salzburg....share same mountains: the Alps) and Vancuver (that represents the American continent)...it is time for a truly Asian games!

I voted Pyongchang 2014,

please respect my decision as obligatory and binding one!

It must be Koreaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

Russia has never had the Winter Games either

North Korea is a complete smokescreen trawled out every time South Korea bids for anything. Do you think people really think, "Ah good, Kim Jong Il is onside. Better vote for Korea".?!

But then Im biased just like you

[Guardian]

Well, Sochi's 2014 bid evaluation has been completed. It is now less than a month, before we know of how the IOC Evaluation Commission likes the latest version of Salzburg's attempt of getting the Olympic Winter Games and the third one for Austria.

[Alotta]

I voted for Sochi and do hereby confirm I think it will win.

As for me, Salzburg doesn't seem to be a favour candidate. Sure it has the strong infrastructure comparing to the others and a strong advantage of the experience. But it wont look to smat to get Olympic back in the same place for the second. IOC's main idea is an enlarging over the world so here PC look more preferably as a not enough engulfed Asian region. Isn't that why Australia got the 2000 Olympics?

Sochi seem to be prefered coz it have real good climatic conditions (actually unique) - Winter in Summer; Russians gonna invest there about $12.000.000.000 - I do not think then others would spend over 5; Russians doesn't have it all done but there might be a good side - the newest Olympic buildings should be modern and built specialy for the Games' needs... and also Russia deserve Winter Games as one of the strongest Olympic country

[FYI]

Salzburg 2014

Pyeongchang 2018

Sochi 2022

Actually, in all seriousness though; this race can go in any direction. It doesn't seem to have a clear favorite as some of the other races in the past have had. Salzburg, Pyeongchang & Sochi all have the capability of swaying votes from all the IOC members for one reason or another.

[baron-pierreIV]

In all seriousness, PyeongChang will get it, at most in the 2nd round.

[Alotta]

In all seriousness, PyeongChang will get it, at most in the 2nd round.

Yeah to be honest it seem to be most likely the winner. I pray for Sochi with all my heart but I have to agree that PC is strong.

Well time will show more so history does know lots of events when the absolute favourite lost to a "dark horse".

Salzburg 2014

Pyeongchang 2018

Sochi 2022

Whatever

[FYI]

I was only kidding, retard.

Obviously you cant read, otherwise, you would have noticed that I said that the race is up in the air for anyone to catch.

[Alotta]

I was only kidding, retard.

Obviously you cant read, otherwise, you would have noticed that I said that the race is up in the air for anyone to catch.

Obviously you can't distinguish me being teasing you

P.S. Sochi gonna win

[FYI]

Well, you're gonna have to take it up with Baron then. Cuz he says Pyeongchang is gonna win. And he should know, cuz he's the omniscient one.

[Guardian]

Welcome to these forums, Alotta. To me, I think it is between Sochi and PyeongChang here. If anything, there is a good chance that the Winter Olympics will go to a "new location" for the first time, like the way my city went through for Canada then.