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Who Do You Think Will Win 2014?


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Who will win 2014?  

135 members have voted

  1. 1. Candidate Cities:

    • Salzberg, Austria
      38
    • PyeongChang, South Korea
      46
    • Socchi Russia
      51


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Agreed, the world challenge was used.

Yet, I have pointed out previously, the Evaluation Commissions have been in the past much more critical in the past reports (I am thinking especially for 2002, where several bids were considered not "up to olympic standards", and 2008 that also stated that Osaka and Istanbul couldn't host the 2008 Olympics).

The way I read it, the Evaluation Commission clearly states that Sochi hosting would raise a greater challenge than the other two but the report was carefully worded so that basically it leaves the door open to the three candidates (it certainly doesn't say that Sochi could not provide the whole new set of infrastructure).

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Whatever happens at the vote this Wednesday, I hope that the winning city will be able to deal with the spiraling cost of hosting it within that 7-year time span.

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I keep favouring Salzburg because I think there are some very serious risks with hosting the Games in Sochi and I feel that PC is still unproven. Local support in Salzburg may be lukewarm, but it is probably the most honest and prudent response. In the end, it comes down to trust. Who do you think the IOC will trust to organize the Games? PC and Sochi keep using smoltzy marketing techniques to win but the Austrians are more likely to host a well organized Games with the least hassle. Their campaign is focused on winning. Austria's is focused on hosting.

We'll know on Wednesday.

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I keep favouring Salzburg because I think there are some very serious risks with hosting the Games in Sochi and I feel that PC is still unproven. Local support in Salzburg may be lukewarm, but it is probably the most honest and prudent response. In the end, it comes down to trust. Who do you think the IOC will trust to organize the Games? PC and Sochi keep using smoltzy marketing techniques to win but the Austrians are more likely to host a well organized Games with the least hassle. Their campaign is focused on winning. Austria's is focused on hosting.

We'll know on Wednesday.

This is such a tight tight race. I think Salzburg will receive a good amount of support but will it be enough to get them into the second round of voting? I don't think there will be one city with a big lead over the other on the first ballot. I have a feeling the votes will be dispersed evenly. Realistically, Salzburg could be dropped off the first ballot by losing by a mere 4-5 votes. Around the Rings said it very well: It's Too Close To Call

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The pundits have been wrong before. 2010 was pegged as a battle between Canada and Austria. South Korea almost won on the first ballot. 2012 was said to be a Paris cakewalk, but they never led on any of the ballots. 2000 was Beijing's until the final ballot was cast for Sydney. 1996 was all Athens, until Athens tied them on the third ballot.

We can never be sure until it is over.

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Exactly.

That article puts way too much emphasis on Putin. It could work the other way around, with his abrasive, pompous ways & threatening to blow up his neighbors just a few weeks ago. I'm sure that doesn't sit well with many in the IOC circles.

The article is also viewing things in black-&-white. Sochi is not London. And the cost escalations of London after the fact, could very well be of great concern to some IOC members now.

Salzburg seems to be in the same position Pyeongchang was in 4 years ago; The complete underdog. But Pyeongchang nearly nabbed 2010. So Salzburg has that possibility of making that upset. I still think Pyeongchang is gonna take it, but in some respect, I hope the underdog "steals" it.

So, it ain't over 'til Julie Andrews sings. :P

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I also think that Putin role could work both ways...

As for London spiralling cost, I do agree that it should be one of the major factor against Sochi (assuming the average IOC member cares about the cost of the Games which, quite frankly, I don't think it does). That should be a major plus for Salzburg and to a lesser extent PC. Then again, I thought that Athens construction challenges was going to give the edge to Paris or Madrid over London and I was wrong.

Given the fact the race seems too close to call at the moment, I think the final presentations could swing the few crucial votes needed for a city to win, just like it did in Singapore. In this respect, I think that the drawing order for the presentation, with Sochi going first and PC last is also in favour of PC.

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Here's a CBC article I found about Putin and Sochi 2014.

Link: CBC: Putin Will Deliver Games For Mother Russia

vladimir-putin.jpg

Crikey,that's one scary picture! You could almost imagine him saying,"Give me the 2014 Winter Olympics or else I will turn off your Gas and train my missiles on your cities!!" :blink:

But I agree with the general tenor of the article.Unless he appears as frightening as in this picture and manages to turn on the charm offensive,I think he may well swing it for Sochi just as Blair did for London.Or maybe the IOC will be just too scared to refuse him!! :lol:

By the way,I thought this quote was a bit too cocky: "Europe will have hosted the Games in 2012, 2006 and 2004, and at least three European cities are lining up for the 2016 Games; Rome, Madrid and Prague (all of which will lose to Chicago, by the way)."

Careful....we all know what happens to bidding cities who think they've got it all sewn up!! <_<

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"Then again, I thought that Athens' construction 'challenges' was going to give the 'edge' to Paris or Madrid over London and I was wrong."

I don't think the IOC really thought that London could be as bad as Athens was. And as Gangwon pointed out, if anything, London has pre-existing infrastructure to fall back on just in case, unlike Sochi. Besides, again, Paris did almost get the edge. So obviously, there's still quite many IOC members that still take amount of construction into account. But agreed, this race is way too close to call it.

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It's not like the Chicago bid committee itself, or anyone in great relation to the bid committee is making such comments. It's just some overzealous "columnist", Mainad. <_<

I didn't mean to imply the comment came from the bid committee itself.I realise it was just one journalist talking.But I just hope his attitude is not becoming typical among US journalists.Chicago has a great chance to win 2016 but nothing is certain and his cocksure attitude might well rebound on him.That comment was the only spoiler in an otherwise fairly well argued article.

I don't think the IOC really thought that London could be as bad as Athens was. And as Gangwon pointed out, if anything, London has pre-existing infrastructure to fall back on just in case, unlike Sochi. Besides, again, Paris did almost get the edge. So obviously, there's still quite many IOC members that still take amount of construction into account. But agreed, this race is way too close to call it.

As you say,there is no clear evidence for the IOC favouring new constructions over existing ones.There is evdence however that they are impressed by legacy and that is what the presentations need to talk up as much as possible as I think it will probably come down to effective last-minute lobbying and an excellent presentation much like in the 2012 vote.And here I think Sochi, with Putin there to lend his support, may just have the edge over its rivals.

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The journalists isn't American, he's Canadian.

And yes, the final presentation shall be the ultimate decider, especially in a tight race. But I'd say Putin's "influence" is being a little over-stretched.

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I think the CBC reporter missed the boat totally here. OWG and OSG are different kettles of fish. Today <I>no city or country has the infrastructure in place to host a future OSG</I>...unless they've hosted in the last 2 decades. But even then a new village (or 5) would be needed since most bids post Seoul converted their housing into condos, co-ops or rental housing--something that can't exactly be clawed back.

So a major infrastructure agenda of some sort is a requirement of OSG. However there are dozes of international calibre cities, towns or regions with enough existing sporting structure to already host 50-70% of the sports for the OWG. Sochi currently has maybe 10% (I'd say more 5%).

Sochi will finish a credible 2nd and should come back to have 2018, barring a bid from a Western European winter sport powerhouse that hasn't hosted an OWG recently or ever (Sweden, Finland), or a hungry, reliable middle-sport nation, ready to move up a notch or two (Zakopane in Poland; Sophia Bulgairia).

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Latest article found by Google.

Link: International Herald Tribune-> Down To The Wire: Tight Race For 2014 Winter Games (2 Pages)

Nice quote from the article: "This is not a Muppet show," Sochi bid chief Dmitry Chernyshenko said. "Russia is very serious about this. For President Putin, it is his personal challenge. He's really passionate about this."

Muppet show, huh? :huh::lol:

Guess this article is being copied in some ways by other international media now.

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Latest International Herald Tribune article about the 2014 Winter Olympics decision.

Link: International Herald Tribune: Presidents Descend On Tropical Guatemala To Lobby For 2014 Winter Olympics

Quote from the article, in relation to making more new NOCs in time for Beijing 2008: "IOC spokeswoman Giselle Davies announced Sunday that the full IOC would vote this week on making the small Pacific island chain of Tuvalu a member. Membership for Montenegro, once a part of Yugoslavia, also was up for a vote. If they are approved, IOC membership would reach 205. The United Nations has only 192 member states."

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Oh, no. :(

It seems, according to this latest International Herald Tribune article, that the old ways of lobbying IOC members for the votes needed for winning a bid for an Olympic Games has returned. If this one is interpreted as such, you can bet that Jacques Rogge will not be pleased about this turn of events.

Link: International Herald Tribune: Members Concerned About High-Spending In Race For 2014 Olympics

So, did you guys think the "Salt Lake City 2002 Olympic bid scandal" has really returned to haunt the IOC hierarchy again? :unsure:

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Oh, no. :(

It seems, according to this latest International Herald Tribune article, that the old ways of lobbying IOC members for the votes needed for winning a bid for an Olympic Games has returned. If this one is interpreted as such, you can bet that Jacques Rogge will not be pleased about this turn of events.

Link: International Herald Tribune: Members Concerned About High-Spending In Race For 2014 Olympics

So, did you guys think the "Salt Lake City 2002 Olympic bid scandal" has really returned to haunt the IOC hierarchy again? :unsure:

The article's a bit thin on any concrete allegations, though. Apart from casting aspersions on the fact that Samsung is a sponsor and that Gazprom has lots of cash on hand, I couldn't see any allegation of the type of bribes and gift-giving that characterised pre-SLC scandal bids. It seems to be more concerned with the cost of the bid campaigns ($40 million mentioned) and the fact that Sochi flew out an ice rink. It might be splashy, but I'd hardly call that corruption.

And yes, $40 million sounds a lot, but hey, inflation! If the IOC is so concerned, then they'd better start looking at insusting bid cities do nothing but submit hand-written bids on plain foolscap paper and posted to them in plain envelopes!

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Great points there, Sir Roltel. However, with the spiraling costs of hosting the Olympic Games nowadays, the last thing we need to see is that the Winter Olympics is repeating the same problems as its summer counterpart, with the fraction of the sports, events, athletes and the like. The SLC controversy was more of the bid than anything, but the logistics of the Games itself is completely another issue.

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Great points there, Sir Roltel. However, with the spiraling costs of hosting the Olympic Games nowadays, the last thing we need to see is that the Winter Olympics is repeating the same problems as its summer counterpart, with the fraction of the sports, events, athletes and the like. The SLC controversy was more of the bid than anything, but the logistics of the Games itself is completely another issue.

Well, the cost of staging the games is another issue altogether, and one that has launched many debates both here and in the IOC itself. The article itself was more about the bid campaigns.

Personally, $40 million for the type of focussed international exposure PC, Sochi and Salzburg are getting is pretty, well not exactly cheap but a reasonable marketing investment, in my view. Compare that to what our government spends on telling us how great it is to pay for private health insurance or what a wonderful thing its new industrial relations laws are, and I know what I'd prefer to spend money on funding. As long as there are no bribes or corruption involved, I don't see that much can be done about it _ bidding cities are always going to be pushing the envelope to try and keep their profile the highest possible.

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Depending on where you all GamesBids members are, it is now about 24 HOURS TO GO, before the IOC decides on the 2014 Olympic Winter Games host city! Good luck to the three candidate cities for the last time.

Once that decision is handed down tomorrow, let the 2016 Olympic Games (the Games of the XXXIst Olympiad) rise to start the true intrigue and bidding cycle all over again.

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