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Who Do You Think Will Win 2014?


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Who will win 2014?  

135 members have voted

  1. 1. Candidate Cities:

    • Salzberg, Austria
      38
    • PyeongChang, South Korea
      46
    • Socchi Russia
      51


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Well, you're gonna have to take it up with Baron then. Cuz he says Pyeongchang is gonna win. And he should know, cuz he's the omniscient one. :P

Who is that Baron being? I just getting mad :angry:

I just got back from the future so I can to notarize you authoritative that Sochi won there B)

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Welcome to these forums, Alotta. To me, I think it is between Sochi and PyeongChang here. If anything, there is a good chance that the Winter Olympics will go to a "new location" for the first time, like the way my city went through for Canada then.

Thank you my hospitable friend.

To be honest - I agree with you and a little bit jealous coz PC still seem to look preferenced ;)

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yeah, Sochi may win, cuz IOC might feel sorry for poor, poor Russia (boohoo) after humiliating them in the 2012 race. :P

Russia did never think about your recipe *cry for getting Games* otherwise we'd have them earlier.

Wait... so that is how USA got all their Olympics. LOL :lol:

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While the IOC Evaluation Commission is still have to go to Salzburg (Austria) to complete its task of evaluating 2014 candidate cities, here is the list of those in that commission.

- President: Chiharu Igaya (Japan)

- Members:

1. Simon Balderstone

2. Dwight Bell

3. Philippe Bovy

4. Remy Charmetant

5. Jan-Ake Edvinsson

6. Stig Ove Gustafsson

7. Kai Holm

8. Jose Luis Marco

9. Theodore Papapetropoulos

10. Miguel Sagarra

11. Rebecca Scott

Link: IOC: IOC Commissions For 2007 (You MUST Need To Have A .PDF READER To See This Link)

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yeah, Sochi may win, cuz IOC might feel sorry for poor, poor Russia (boohoo) after humiliating them in the 2012 race. :P

As you may be aware, Moscow got 15 votes vs the winner London's 22. Not exactly a humiliating score :rolleyes:

It was just a supertough race. Much tougher than the current one :)

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While the IOC Evaluation Commission is still have to go to Salzburg (Austria) to complete its task of evaluating 2014 candidate cities, here is the list of those in that commission.

And you have to add the all-important G.Felli as well as the 3 candidate city relations ladies.

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Perhaps. But every one else was only ONE vote behind the other, except for Moscow, who was 4 votes behind New York. And many consider New York's second place finish as a very poor performance, so what does that say for Moscow. Especially when there were quite a few on here saying that there was no way that they were gonna finish last as predicted, & they did. Even the Russians were keeping that information from their citizens on election day because obviously they were embarrased from finishing last. :rolleyes:

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And while this race is not as tough as the last one, if Sochi wins these Games, it'll mainly be due because of Moscow's loss, considering the E.C.'s concerns over Sochi's readiness over the other 2, much more capable candidates.

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And while this race is not as tough as the last one, if Sochi wins these Games, it'll mainly be due because of Moscow's loss, considering the E.C.'s concerns over Sochi's readiness over the other 2, much more capable candidates.

I wouldn't comment on the EC comments when:

  1. Salzburg is still to be visited (agreed, I doubt the EC will find any real source of concern in Salzburg)
  2. The EC report is not published. Based on his report for 2006, I trust Higaya to be less diplomatical than others and to point out the various challenges each city would face. Yet, I remember when, back in 2001, Hein Verbruggen visited Paris, then bidding for 2008, he rated Paris excellent, specifically stating that he had seen good, very good bids and that Paris was excellent. And then, the report is published: Beijing, Paris and Toronto are at the same level.

So let's wait and see, we might have some surprises.

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Baron is right on that one. The evaluation report probably won't be much of a factor, unless it trash a city like crazy...

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Which in this reports case, may see Sochi getting a not so nice review, other than Russia being a major winter Olympic sport nation. And oops, the earlier post should've read; New York's --fourth-- place finish.

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Baron is right on that one. The evaluation report probably won't be much of a factor, unless it trash a city like crazy...

Oh, I agree 100% with you two.

The evaluation commission report cannot make a city elected but can, in case of a very bad report (like Osaka got in 2001 for purely political reasons) can pretty much kill a bid.

In the case of Sochi, I wouldn't be surprised if it goes like "the amount of construction work needed represents a challenge. Nevertheless the commission is confident that with full support of the Russian federal government it can be achieved"...

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Oh, I agree 100% with you two.

The evaluation commission report cannot make a city elected but can, in case of a very bad report (like Osaka got in 2001 for purely political reasons) can pretty much kill a bid.

In the case of Sochi, I wouldn't be surprised if it goes like "the amount of construction work needed represents a challenge. Nevertheless the commission is confident that with full support of the Russian federal government it can be achieved"...

Which would open the door for the IOC possibly giving Russia their "consolation prize". Like the 2001 report for 2008, just paved the way for a Beijing win.

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Lets count:

1. Many European IOC members like Swedish, Norwegian, French, German, Bulgarian etc. will vote for Pyongchang, because they hope to host the games in 2018.

Salzburg is consider as European and Sochi is about half-European as Caucasus mountains are on the borders between Europe and Asia.

2. Many European IOC members like Czechs, Poles, Hungarians, British, Finnish etc. are likely to support Salzburg, maybe Sochi.

3. Many Asian IOC members support Pyongchang, because they do not have a chance of organizing their own olympics, but would prefer Asian games.

4. The American IOC members are probably unbiased. They still have a similar chance to get 2018, whatever the ourtcome is.

If you add 1+2......that more or less balance themselves, 4. is neutral, so the decisive is probably the support of Asian IOC members.

Based on the above, if you provide me with a list of nationalities of the voting members, I will tell you the result +-10%.

I remember seeing once the list of names, but did not know personally who is who.... :rolleyes:

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Lets count:

4. The American IOC members are probably unbiased. They still have a similar chance to get 2018, whatever the ourtcome is.

No; that's pretty obvious. The 3 American IOC votes will go to PyeongChang as a PC victory effectively undercuts Tokyo's bid for 2016.

As I've said before. Salzburg/Sochi will fall in the first round. And the remaining one will be a runner-up to PC in the 2nd and final round.

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somebody who has time, please give an estimate for each member - how will they vote. somebody who has insight what are the political motivation of the algerian, syrian etc. other IOC members.....for sure they have no chance to win medals, but they still vote it seems...isn't that a little odd system? :lol:

The list is in another topic here, but I'll post the link.

IOC Member List

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somebody who has time, please give an estimate for each member - how will they vote. somebody who has insight what are the political motivation of the algerian, syrian etc. other IOC members.....for sure they have no chance to win medals, but they still vote it seems...isn't that a little odd system? :lol:

Marit, NO ONE knows for sure how each IOC'er will vote since these are conducted in secret ballot; and I am sure they are more than discreet to openly voice their choices. But, as I posted in another thread (look in the "Salzburg Gets Jitters" thread...), this is how I size up the upcoming 2014 vote:

1. The various blocs and their continental breakdown:

Europe (46 votes) - (5 from Italy)

Africa (21)

Asia (19) including the disgraced Mr. Yong Sung Park of KOR)

No. America/Carib (14) (3 US members)

So America (4)

Oceania (5)

2. The voting:

a. Just saying Asia (the 2 Japanese votes would be countered by the 2 Chinese and PRK votes) & the Americas (North & South) go for PC for starters; that's 33 votes (minues the 2 Korean votes) right there.

b. I would think the Africans would favor PC more than the Russians or the Austrians; so, just say 12 African votes for PC. That's 45 already there.

c. The European vote will be split 3 ways for starters. Many of them don't like the Russians; others (the Scandinavians; maybe Spain) are hoping for 2018. So, a third of 43 (minus 2 Russian and 1 Austrian votes), would be 14 + 45 = 59.

Even without a few more from Oceania and So. American, PC could get it with 59 votes in the first round alone. (All it takes will be 57 votes (from the present 112 voting members), if there are no absences, abstentions or additional members before July. )

d. If there is a 2nd round, Sochi or Salzburg will go in the first round -- and PC will clinch it in the 2nd.

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