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2016 (seriously)


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My short list is: Cape Town, Chicago, Fukuoka, and Rio. (The IOC will put a stop to the foolishness of the Euro cities by not even putting them on the short list. Really quite stupid.)

Fukuoka will be out in the first ballot. Cape Town will not be proven until 2010; while Rio, I imagine, will pass its test next year. (But then Brazil will have to decide whether to do 2016 or World Cup 2014 -- or could go after both.) So, it's going to be between Chicago and Rio.

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TO EXCLUDE MADRID AND ROME OF THE SHORT LIST IS NOT REALIST

i did not exclude them..they just dont fall ni my top five favourites to host. madrid and rome will both make the shortlist...both with a good chance to win

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TO EXCLUDE MADRID AND ROME OF THE SHORT LIST IS NOT REALIST

I think they will make the shortlist (unless the IOC sends a message and does them a favor)...but the end result will be the same....they will NOT have a good chance to win at all and will ultimately lose

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I think they will make the shortlist (unless the IOC sends a message and does them a favor)...but the end result will be the same....they will NOT have a good chance to win at all and will ultimately lose

will see,this is a long race...but I am sure that both (Madrid and Rome) will be in the short list...

i did not exclude them..they just dont fall ni my top five favourites to host. madrid and rome will both make the shortlist...both with a good chance to win

cape town is in the 2016 race or waiting for 2020?

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I think they will make the shortlist

Not necessarily so. THe IOC has been quite decisive recently. Istanbul did NOT make the short-list for 2012. ANd the short-list for 2014 was cut down to 3. So, maybe the IOC is being definitive at an early stage. Why prolong the agony for those that won't win?

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Not necessarily so. THe IOC has been quite decisive recently. Istanbul did NOT make the short-list for 2012. ANd the short-list for 2014 was cut down to 3. So, maybe the IOC is being definitive at an early stage. Why prolong the agony for those that won't win?

I think that should be the case (and I hope you are right) there is no need and point in having Madrid, Rome, or whoever around in the end rounds when they stand 0% chance of winning...for Madrid and all European bids it may in fact (and should be) a SHORT race

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baron on a technical merit which u know is what the IOC uses to shortlist..madrid and rome are sure to score 6 +...if the IOC is to make a strategic move, then they would do that and be clear about that...but on the current system madrid and rome are sure bets to be shortlisted...rio or buenos aires or istanbul are not going to score higher than madrid or rome using the current system...and madrid and rome along with their outstanding infrastructure which will be even better in 2009 will probably lead the pack on scores

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you are very convinced...very good fortune-teller

hahahaha and you are a biased well supporter who can't see past the fact that their city isn't going to win no matter how much you want to debate it...nothing is 100% certain...but that's not to say Madrid's chances for 2016 are like 2%

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i did not exclude them..they just dont fall ni my top five favourites to host. madrid and rome will both make the shortlist...both with a good chance to win

Did you forget the past sessions for the Summer Olympiads?

They don't have a good chance of winning, despite what Rogge says.

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baron on a technical merit which u know is what the IOC uses to shortlist..madrid and rome are sure to score 6 +...if the IOC is to make a strategic move, then they would do that and be clear about that...but on the current system madrid and rome are sure bets to be shortlisted...rio or buenos aires or istanbul are not going to score higher than madrid or rome using the current system...and madrid and rome along with their outstanding infrastructure which will be even better in 2009 will probably lead the pack on scores

if we are talking about the 2016 olympics criteria İstanbul's score will be higher than the past elections.. and it will be near or even in a better condition than madrid.

the subway and the marmaray which connects the contitents under the sea will be finished in 2008 and some other facilities will be done too.and eu candidature and membership will rise Turkiye's popularity too.and also having a highly populated islamic population will atract the muslim countries too..

ı really believe this time istanbul will make a big surprise.may we wont win but we wiill make a such a presentation as to be a remembrance ... B)B)B):D

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i dont doubt istanbul's score will definitely rise...i do still think madrid is capable of drawing at least 25 votes

madrid will rise to 32 votes but if there will be any latin american city in the short list.. they will cut its votes.

still thinking about tokyo istanbul and chicago will be the 3 tops of the final..

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A bit early to predict, but at this point, I see a shortlist of 5 consisting of:

The USOC candidate (Chicago or SF)

The Japanese candidate (likely Tokyo)

A South American candidate (likely Rio or BA)

Two European candidates (Rome, Madrid, or Moscow)

The race will be viewed as a battle of the Americas, with the USOC candidate picked as the early favorite. The European bids will mostly just be there for good measure.

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what I've been gleaning thru all these posts is that:

1. our Spanish/Madrid boosters are all very short-sighted. Yes, Madrid will be highly qualified technically, but that isn't, repeat, ISN'T the only consideration. I say short-sighted because they only look at the last 3 Summer Olympaids (04- Athens, 08- Beijing, 12- London), and just because this is an exception where there is one non-Euro Games in-between 2, they quickly jump to the conclusion that this will be a trend. Huh? :rolleyes:Look at the longer history of the Games and how they rotate. That is the better indication.

2. Just because Madrid placed 3rd last year, is no indication of strength for the next race. Paris was the runner-up in 1986 for the '92 Games. The next time it bid in 2001 (I think for the '08 Games), it came in fourth. There is no assurance that a strong 2nd bid -- unless it's the Winter Games where there are far fewer viable candidates -- will succeed; especially if you take geo-politics into cosnideration.

But again, maybe this is all too logical for the Espanoles. All this talk about Madrid is getting boring actually.

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Funny thing, I see a lot of you here saying that Rio has fairly good chances. Do you really think so? That's really good news for brazilians like me, however, I can't see Rio even as a pre-qualified city. Yes, it depends a lot on next year's PAG, which will suck, I believe.

No, I'm not pessimistic, I believe we will host the next World Cup. But I don't think the Olympic games will come to Brazil within 30 years or so. If Buenos Aires wins it, however, I'll probably have to live 100 years to see the games in my country.

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If Mexico is seriously bidding for 2016, as it seems they do, now that the president of the Mexican Olympic Commeette has aproved Monterrey's project, then I think we should all consider them as a strong contendent.

Not only because of their location, but because of their strong influence in olympic influences, remember Mario Vazques Raña is president of the ANOC, and many consider him the second most important man in sport worldwide, just after the very president of the IOC. He is the honorary president of the Mexican Olympic Com. and is in favor of Monterrey's bid, so if he is supporting Monterrey, he must have its reasons to believe they can have a good shot with Monterrey, the kind of shot that will at least put them in the short list.

In terms of Latin America, Mexico stands at the top of the list.

As far as Monterrey, the city is considered the second safest city of Latin America, the richest in Latin America, and the best place to make business in. The avarage common man may not know Monterrey that much (since as it has been mentioned before, it is not a typical touristic place) but its well known in the business and political circles. Remember that at the end of the day, the people that vote meaning the IOC members have a little bit more resamble to a crowd moving in business and political circles, rather than the average common man, so they know what Monterrey has to offer, and that the city has Mario Vazquez Raña as a major supporter. Consider that.

If you still think Monterrey has nothing to offer, and that not being known is a disadvantage for them, think again, that may actually be their secret weapon, to be like a cinderella city on everybodys mind, then with the touch of a maginc wound (global exposition) Monterrey could shock everyone as the really amazing, powerful, and influential city that it is, and take everyone by surprise.

May I remind you that the city recently host a United Nations Conference with over 65 presidents and prime ministers coming over, a major security and logistics nightmare, and the city did an amazing job on the organization of the event, so amazing, the the UN recognized the event as the safest and less chaotic in terms of logistics and as the city who best handeled the protesters problem, no rallys or manifestarion during the event ever did any harm to the city of the logistics of the organization, because of a special program they handle to solve this problem.

Because of this, a year after the UN summit, Monterrey was chosen again to host the Americas Summit, in the same place the UN took place. Monterrey organized the event on a very short notice ( I think less than 2 months) but Monterrey did such a good job in the UN summit, that Mexico chose Monterrey to host the Americas summit, over Guadalajara, Mexico City and Cancun. The same place were the UN and Americas Summit took place is now one of the 3 clusters of Monterrey's Olympic Project!!! How about that?

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If Mexico is seriously bidding for 2016, as it seems they do, now that the president of the Mexican Olympic Commeette has aproved Monterrey's project, then I think we should all consider them as a strong contendent.

Not only because of their location, but because of their strong influence in olympic influences, remember Mario Vazques Raña is president of the ANOC, and many consider him the second most important man in sport worldwide, just after the very president of the IOC. He is the honorary president of the Mexican Olympic Com. and is in favor of Monterrey's bid, so if he is supporting Monterrey, he must have its reasons to believe they can have a good shot with Monterrey, the kind of shot that will at least put them in the short list.

In terms of Latin America, Mexico stands at the top of the list.

As far as Monterrey, the city is considered the second safest city of Latin America, the richest in Latin America, and the best place to make business in. The avarage common man may not know Monterrey that much (since as it has been mentioned before, it is not a typical touristic place) but its well known in the business and political circles. Remember that at the end of the day, the people that vote meaning the IOC members have a little bit more resamble to a crowd moving in business and political circles, rather than the average common man, so they know what Monterrey has to offer, and that the city has Mario Vazquez Raña as a major supporter. Consider that.

If you still think Monterrey has nothing to offer, and that not being known is a disadvantage for them, think again, that may actually be their secret weapon, to be like a cinderella city on everybodys mind, then with the touch of a maginc wound (global exposition) Monterrey could shock everyone as the really amazing, powerful, and influential city that it is, and take everyone by surprise.

May I remind you that the city recently host a United Nations Conference with over 65 presidents and prime ministers coming over, a major security and logistics nightmare, and the city did an amazing job on the organization of the event, so amazing, the the UN recognized the event as the safest and less chaotic in terms of logistics and as the city who best handeled the protesters problem, no rallys or manifestarion during the event ever did any harm to the city of the logistics of the organization, because of a special program they handle to solve this problem.

Because of this, a year after the UN summit, Monterrey was chosen again to host the Americas Summit, in the same place the UN took place. Monterrey organized the event on a very short notice ( I think less than 2 months) but Monterrey did such a good job in the UN summit, that Mexico chose Monterrey to host the Americas summit, over Guadalajara, Mexico City and Cancun. The same place were the UN and Americas Summit took place is now one of the 3 clusters of Monterrey's Olympic Project!!! How about that?

Yeah, but against a Tokyo, Rio or, just for argument's sake, Chicago, Monterrey really is in the "B" tier of cities, reputation-wise. It is now the era of the world's top cities (London, Paris, New York, Tokyo, Moscow, Rio, Berlin, Chicago) bidding for the honor. Remember, the UK never got anywhere with a Manchester or a Birmingham bid; France had a little fun with a Lille run. Australia never got anywhere with a Brisbane or (even for a second run; and I'm sure it's a great, safe city) Melbourne. Germany's Leipzig got laughed off the IOC short-list. So, a 2nd-tier city like Monterrey I think really has very little chance, especially if Chicago will run, as there is every indication now that they are putting in a strong and serious package. (And I'm not just saying that as an American.)

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I think is dangerous to see the Olympics Bid as a populatiry contest. Who is who in terms of "big important cities" is so relative.

What happened to New York in 2012 or Moscow? How about Sofia, the only capital city in the 2014 race?

I think the fact of "big name cities" making a good job on Olympic bids, is not because the weight of their name, but because the weight of their project!

London, Sydney, Beijing, Paris, they all did succesfull jobs on Olympic bids, not because of their names, but because of their projects. As well Leipzig, Brisbane, La Habana, Rio and others did not did good jobs, not because their popularity status, but because of their poor project proposals.

Let's remember that one of the goals of the actual president of the IOC was to make the olympics, an event more suitable for a major range of cities, meaning, making the event available not only for the big cities, but for any city with a good project.

And he is receiving lots of examples that show that trusting small cities or countries with huge responsabilities, such as organizing sports events, is not at all an old fashion trend. FIFA awarded south africa with the 2010 cup, and the word says Brazil is the favorite for 2014.

UN trusted Monterrey, as well as the Americas Summit.

I'm not saying it won't be easier if we had a big name attached to a strong project, I realize that Monterrey has a hard way to go through. But if they convinced Mexican Olympic President, and Mario Vazquez Raña, even though they were considering not to bid untill 2020, but then the Monterrey Officials presented the city's project, and boom they decided to go for it, then they must know something we don't, and I don't think those are the kind of men who you would convince with an Oliver Twist kind of argument "Please Sir, can I have some more."

Let's not forget one of my initial comments, any good project has a chance of winning! This is not a popularity contest, but a project contest! The best project wins.

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I think is dangerous to see the Olympics Bid as a populatiry contest. Who is who in terms of "big important cities" is so relative.

What happened to New York in 2012 or Moscow? How about Sofia, the only capital city in the 2014 race?

I think the fact of "big name cities" making a good job on Olympic bids, is not because the weight of their name, but because the weight of their project!

London, Sydney, Beijing, Paris, they all did succesfull jobs on Olympic bids, not because of their names, but because of their projects. As well Leipzig, Brisbane, La Habana, Rio and others did not did good jobs, not because their popularity status, but because of their poor project proposals.

Let's remember that one of the goals of the actual president of the IOC was to make the olympics, an event more suitable for a major range of cities, meaning, making the event available not only for the big cities, but for any city with a good project.

And he is receiving lots of examples that show that trusting small cities or countries with huge responsabilities, such as organizing sports events, is not at all an old fashion trend. FIFA awarded south africa with the 2010 cup, and the word says Brazil is the favorite for 2014.

UN trusted Monterrey, as well as the Americas Summit.

I'm not saying it won't be easier if we had a big name attached to a strong project, I realize that Monterrey has a hard way to go through. But if they convinced Mexican Olympic President, and Mario Vazquez Raña, even though they were considering not to bid untill 2020, but then the Monterrey Officials presented the city's project, and boom they decided to go for it, then they must know something we don't, and I don't think those are the kind of men who you would convince with an Oliver Twist kind of argument "Please Sir, can I have some more."

Let's not forget one of my initial comments, any good project has a chance of winning! This is not a popularity contest, but a project contest! The best project wins.

Having a summit or int'l conference is TOTALLY different from hosting the Olympics. Manila has hosted a UN Int'l conference or 2; two Miss Universes -- but even it is savvy enough to realize that it is NOT Olympic host city-material.

I don't think you quite realize what it takes to (i) make the short list; and (ii) to actually stage a Summer Olympiad of the 21st century.

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