The GamesBids 2036 Host Discussion/Poll/Comp

[Sir Rols]

Now we’re well into the “New Norm” era, the classic hosting races are a thing of the past. No more spectating as a bunch of city contenders lined up and competed publicly against each other to try to come out on top with the most votes at a set finish line. Those were the days!

Conversely, while (maybe even because) the current “dialogues” are a bit more boring, and mostly conducted in secrecy, they’re also more unpredictable. Host announcements can come at any time, and the “winner” may not even necessarily be the classic “best bid” or “best technical bid”, but the one that’s played the IOC’s game, got their support and the nod from the Future Host Commission/Executive Board.

There’s still scope, though, for the old GamesBids forecasting. We’re told there is a “crowded field of interested parties” lined up for 2036, and we know who a lot of those are.  We can assess their strengths and weaknesses and their chances of winning IOC support. We can also speculate when the IOC might make the 2036 decision - it may not be imminent but could happen any time, and surely no later than 2030.

So, who do you think will get chosen? And when? Feel free to discuss, and vote*.

And we can also make a contest of sorts of it. If you don’t want to commit yourself too early, fine, just post your predictions as text. But if or when you want to win bragging rights, vote in the poll. And when the time comes, let’s see who got it right, earliest. So there’s an incentive to vote early.

Discuss, and vote, away! 

* for the purposes of the poll, some locations known, or suspected, to be in contention have not publically nominated a city, or may be planning multicity/regional/nationwide bids. The country itself is enough to vote on.

Edited March 29 by Sir Rols

[FYI]

Now, just to clarify. Is this poll what we would “want” to see, or who we THINK will get 2036 (based on the whims of one (or two) particular IOC member[s])? Or both?

If the former, I may have to think about that one a little more. If the latter, I know exactly where I’d vote for.

[Bear]

4 minutes ago, FYI said:

Now, just to clarify. Is this poll what we would “want” to see, or who we THINK will get 2036 (based on the whims of one (or two) particular IOC member[s])? Or both?

If the former, I may have to think about that one a little more. If the latter, I know exactly where I’d vote for.

there should be two polls for this reason, i have a city in my heart but another one in my brain 💔

(also istanbul is a tag but not an actual poll option? deeply saddening!)

[FYI]

7 minutes ago, Bear said:

(also istanbul is a tag but not an actual poll option? deeply saddening!)

Yeah, I’d get rid of Morocco & replace it with Istanbul.

[Sir Rols]

46 minutes ago, Bear said:

(also istanbul is a tag but not an actual poll option? deeply saddening!)

 

38 minutes ago, FYI said:

Yeah, I’d get rid of Morocco & replace it with Istanbul.

I thought I’d put Istanbul in - definitely remember typing it out. Must have typed over it with another option. I’ve taken the advice and replaced Morocco with it. Luckily no-one had voted yet.

52 minutes ago, FYI said:

Now, just to clarify. Is this poll what we would “want” to see, or who we THINK will get 2036 (based on the whims of one (or two) particular IOC member[s])? Or both?

If the former, I may have to think about that one a little more. If the latter, I know exactly where I’d vote for.

I envisaged it as who you THINK will win. In order some time down the track to measure our predictive results. I agree, another “Who you WANT” poll would have been good and appropriate, but unfortunately the limit is two poll questions to a thread.

Personally, who I’d want is Germany (and there I think I’d prefer the Rhine-Ruhr option).

Who I think? That’s tough. For all that there’s obvious shortcomings logistically (and climatically) with Ahmedabad and Doha, I can’t shake the notion that Bach is setting the stage for one of those - likely to be elevated in 2026 (next year Bach will be more preoccupied getting term extended, I expect, and I think the momentum of the “New Norm” is to settle these early as soon as Bach the Future Host Commission has settled on a choice). I’ll ponder ad plump for my final choices and commit myself in the poll soon.

Edited March 29 by Sir Rols

[FYI]

2 hours ago, Sir Rols said:

I envisaged it as who you THINK will win. In order some time down the track to measure our predictive results. I agree, another “Who you WANT” poll would have been good and appropriate, but unfortunately the limit is two poll questions to a thread.

Maybe the “want” poll could the second poll instead of the when (year) poll? Cause we can always say what year we think the “award” will be in a post. But I guess since a couple of people already voted (including myself) I guess it may not be possible anymore. 

2 hours ago, Sir Rols said:

Personally, who I’d want is Germany (and there I think I’d prefer the Rhine-Ruhr option).

I would ‘want’ Germany, too. And yes, I agree that the Rhine-Ruhr option would be a good one. Would give us a different section/flavor of Germany for a Games. 

In second place (if we can do that, I was hoping that we were able to vote for more than one, like I’ve seen in other polls here) for me in the want-category would be Rome. I’ve always been enamored by the Italian capital.

And finally to round off my top-three, would either be Madrid or Istanbul as a tie. The latter would definitely fill in the “exotic” locale in my book.

2 hours ago, Sir Rols said:

Who I think? That’s tough. For all that there’s obvious shortcomings logistically (and climatically) with Ahmedabad and Doha, I can’t shake the notion that Bach is setting the stage for one of those - likely to be elevated in 2026 (next year Bach will be more preoccupied getting term extended, I expect, and I think the momentum of the “New Norm” is to settle these early as soon as Bach the Future Host Commission has settled on a choice). I’ll ponder ad plump for my final choices and commit myself in the poll soon.

If you would’ve made this poll last week, I would’ve voted totally differently (the 2036 is Europe’s to lose was my philosophy before). But since that intriguing (to say the least) piece that you posted the other day, I have to be inclined to re-evaluate everything now. Bach really seems to be a toxic pill for the Olympic movement, & it doesn’t seem like he’s working for the betterment of the IOC at all, only for himself it seems.

That’s why I’m now inclined to say that either India or Qatar, in that order, will be hosting 2036. I guess ITG isn’t that far off when they say that Doh-a is the “clear favorite” for ‘36. What inside juicy scoop could they possibly have? And the climate/calendar issue? Since NBC only has the Olympic rights ‘til 2036, who knows what other kind of deals Bach could be making underneath-the-radar in order to offset any negative impact from a Summer Games in the fall.

And in distant third in my THINK category would be Istanbul. The autocrat-ness of Erdogan might appeal to Bach, but I’d have to say that he would personally have more to gain with either India or Qatar hosting in 2036. And who knows, could we even see a Bach-“double” in order to appease both his “friends” at the same time?!  “We’ll see”!! 

[Sir Rols]

7 minutes ago, FYI said:

That’s why I’m now inclined to say that either India or Qatar, in that order, will be hosting 2036.

That’s pretty well exactly how I’m leaning as well. But, just to make it interesting, I’m going to put my vote down on Doha. I think in some ways Doha could almost be seen as the so-called “safer?” Option. Between their Asiads (I think they’re even hosting another soon) and the WC, they actually should have nearly everything in place and the Olympics can be merely plug-in-and-play. If they’re missing anything, well, gold’s no object. And as to the heat? Either the IOC and NBC will “reluctantly” accept a compromise (or backdrop cas settlement), or they’ll do something like have all outdoor events at night, or whatever (maybe their miracle aircon tech will suddenly appear).

I sorta hope I’m wrong, though. Germany would be my first personal choice. And I’d be happy with Istanbul or Madrid as back-ups. 

[SportLightning]

I vote Doha.

[Bear]

Based on the listed cities that have actually so far confirmed interest, my vote goes to Istanbul. It would be a new host with the experience of hosting events (which will be put to the test in 2027). Political concerns aside (and knowing the IOC, they totally would be willing to put them aside), I genuinely think the city could be a great host tbh.

Regarding India, I do think they will host at one point but it probably (hopefully) won't be 2036. As for Doha, maybe it's just me being naive or overly optimistic, but I don't think that the IOC would stoop that low. A Doha Games would be a hundred times more controversial than Beijing 2008/22, and that's something the IOC does not need or want right now.

Now if Germany is able to put together a bid with support, then they'd totally get my vote...

[FYI]

9 hours ago, Bear said:

there should be two polls for this reason, i have a city in my heart but another one in my brain 💔

So, if Istanbul (or Germany) is the one your heart tells you, which one is the one your 'brain' tell you then?

2 hours ago, Bear said:

As for Doha, maybe it's just me being naive or overly optimistic, but I don't think that the IOC would stoop that low. A Doha Games would be a hundred times more controversial than Beijing 2008/22, and that's something the IOC does not need or want right now.

I would've agreed with this up until last week. I remember the chant of the past that "the IOC is not FIFA". But it seems that the IOC is becoming exactly like them with each passing year. The "IOC" is no longer the IOC that we once knew. The power has been taken away from all the other members of the organization. Now it's the "new-norm" IOC, headed by the whims of the EB (in this case, mainly B&C). The movers & shakers (which the big B is already quite chummy with) in Qatar were also not happy at all the way 2032 was handled either. And they've pretty much already said that they won't put up with that again.  

I remember when Doha was not included in the 2016 & 2020 short-lists, & the underlying reasoning then, besides the time-frame one, was so that the rest (or at the very least some) of the voting membership wouldn't be able to be bought off by all that Qatari cash. But now I guess that doesn't matter, since again, all the power now lies within the EB (wink wink, secret handshake).

A Doh-a Games controversial? I'm sure. Would Bach care, though? Most likely not. Because much of the controversy that embroiled Qatar in the past, particularly with the FIFA 2022 WC, wouldn't necessarily exist anymore with an Olympics. Like many of the labor workers dying constructing all those new WC stadiums. As Rol's pointed out, they now practically have everything they ready to go for an Olympics. They also have a(nother) Asian games scheduled for 2030, which would be another springboard for an Olympics. 

That said, though, a Doh-a Games would still have the usual controversies, like Beijing & Sochi did, human rights, etc. But I'm afraid that won't be enough (as it never has) to stop the IOC (excuse me B&C) in this case. And the way it's done now, so far in advance, people in general won't begin to notice until those Games are right around the corner, but by then, it'll be too late anyway, & any controversies then would be short in duration.  But "we shall see". 

[FYI]

which one is the one your 'brain' tells you then *(if not India or Qatar).

[Scotguy II]

I went with India. 

Having 3 consecutive "safe hosts" it would be reasonable to go with a new frontier area for 2036. given the current issues in the middle eastern region (i know there are problems also near India, but not as unstable) the IOC if faced with say a Doha, Istanbul, Ahmedabad field may feel the Indian city might be a more viable option.

I chose 2036 as the choosing date as 10 years would be a good amount of time for India to hopefully get things sorted.

 

[Rob2012]

2 minutes ago, Scotguy II said:

I chose 2036

Seems to me that'd be cutting it a bit fine.

[Australian Kiwi]

Want Istanbul. 

Think we'll get Ahmedabad. Smaller cities with subpar infrastructure and crap, unfeasible plans seem to be all the rage. 

[yoshi]

What I want to see: Germany. Ideally Rhein Ruhr but Munich would be fine - I can't see anywhere else trying but it's long past time for the new Germany to get its chance. Madrid could actually have its shot now too. Too soon for us, even if it's the north or Scotland. 

What I think will happen: India. Not against India hosting eventually on principle but I'd be much more enthused by Delhi or Mumbai than an Ahmedabad that'll just be Modi's 1936. Let's be real though, they're so connected already & everything happening seems to be leading to it, right down to cricket coming in - the only thing I can see might change it is if Bach either doesn't extend his term or he doesn't want to go more than the traditional 12 years between European hosts. That'd open Istanbul - or...

What I fear could happen: Russia. I don't think Bach will ever let go of the hope that one day he will be able to give his boss the St Petersburg Summer games he all but promised. So I wonder if he will try to drag the bid race out in the hope that he'll be able to get away with a Russian Olympics after all if the current war ends. It would probably be the end of Western (especially European) participation in the Olympics - but I'm not sure Bach would really care. He'd probably try to wangle the Nobel Prize out of it...

[FYI]

Yeah, definitely would be more excited myself as well if it were Delhi or Mumbai, but not so much Ahmeda-bad. But obscure cities with a lot of work to do, seems to be the B&C thing these days. Although, Ahmedabad does have that new big-a$s stadium now, which would make QSAC look puny in comparison. But then again, "size does not matter". 

And definitely agree about Cricket, too. It would've made the most sense to introduce it in Brisbane 2032, rather than just force L.A. 2028 to have it & then scramble to find a venue for it & shuffle other things around. So that also does seem to be a good indicator of other things to come. And if Bach doesn't seek out another term, surely he already has someone else in mind that he's already grooming to continue to carry out his wishes.

As far as Russia is concerned, that'd be even more controversial than a Doh-a Games right now. Even Bach can't be that suicidal. Maybe in the 2040's we can see another Russian Games, when all that's going on ATM, will hopefully be far away in the rear-view mirror by then.

[Guilga]

I went with Other/2025. This would have room for we know the new guys by the IOC session next year. 

I feel that it might be too early to really say who might snap 2036 with the way things are going currently. Bach might pull a Durban or something out of the blue the same way he pulled Nice for 2030. First, we need to know when they will feel like choosing 2036, which I believe could be next year's session, just to keep on regular track, even if they might pull something else earlier or later with their charter bending. Then, the actual candidates will show themselves untill the time one of them convince Bach enough. Remember that 2030 french bid realized itself just a few months before their preferred dialogue status was gained, before we had Sapporo failing because of Tokyo 2020, Sweden undecided and Salt Lake trying to delay to 2034 but keeping open to 2030 if needed, they got it also. The only bid from earlier that remained to the end of the 2030 race was Salt Lake City 2034. They got company of Nice and Switzerland, which also made a quick bid turnaround for 2038 privileged something.

I know this is the antithesis of this tread and poll but 2036 host might have not even started thinking bidding yet.

With that said, who I think will win, is who we get to hear on the actual news first. For what I want, Spain or Mexico would be cool. For the former, I know that local politics and city rivalry and all, but a good counter for the gravity of doing a games in a 36 year would be a Friendship Games in Barcelona.

[iceman530]

Feeling the starts are alighing for Istanbul this time.  Old airport site has all the space needed to build a sports hub and athlete housing.  

[StefanMUC]

And Erdo might not be present anymore by then. 

[FYI]

^Or he'd have already groomed his successor by then .

4 hours ago, Guilga said:

Bach might pull a Durban or something out of the blue the same way he pulled Nice for 2030. First, we need to know when they will feel like choosing 2036, which I believe could be next year's session, just to keep on regular track, even if they might pull something else earlier or later with their charter bending. 

What do mean Bach might pull a Durban? And to keep on 'regular track', we should remember that with the "new-norm" there is no such thing, cause they can choose (or not) whenever they want. There is no fixed timetable anymore. We should also take note, that Brisbane was initially scheduled to be anointed in 2020 (a full 12 years, not 11) for 2032. But Coronavirus threw a wrench into that, & therefore was crowned in 2021 instead. 

4 hours ago, Guilga said:

Then, the actual candidates will show themselves until the time one of them convince Bach enough. Remember that 2030 french bid realized itself just a few months before their preferred dialogue status was gained,

Who else do you possibly envision, that we haven't already, or are not part of the so-called "crowded field of interested parties" that are viable enough that could still emerge to convince Bach enough? If anything, everyone who is serious about 2036 should be trying to court Bach now, because of FOMO, cause they don't want to be left out in the cold again like the were for 2032. Qatar has already made clear, they aren't looking for a repeat of that. Nice I think is another matter altogether, since the IOC totally skipped 2030 in order to "award" Coates his Brisbane as early as possible.

4 hours ago, Guilga said:

I know this is the antithesis of this tread and poll but 2036 host might have not even started thinking bidding yet.

Like who, though? Again, FOMO should be having just about everyone who is serious about '36 already "dialoging" with Bach, which the "new-norm" allows. On the contrary, Mexico & Poland have already backed out. Mexico saying that they're gonna concentrate on the Pan Ams instead, & Poland saying that the Olympics are just too expensive now. And if you think that 2025 is the year Bach chooses, all the more reason that every city that's seriously interested in 2036 should be talking to Lausanne much sooner (more like yesterday) rather than later.

[baron-pierreIV]

Went with Germany and 2027.  If India is serious, they would have a better chance in winning 2040--after proving how they bid and fare for 2036.  They have to get a few World Championships under their belt first -- and excel in maybe at least 5 sports.  

[sebastien1214]

With the "New Norm", the selection process has become so unclear that I am unable to make any sort of prediction. I mean, I have the feeling that since 2032 bids the chosen host city has been chosen solely by Bach and his friends, and I don't know them well enough to get into their minds.

If the old procedure was still in effect, I think the IOC would have chosen a new country, or even a new region of the world. I always told myself that one day India's time would come; 2036 could be their moment (even if I am still doubtful about the choice of Ahmedabad...). As for Indonesia, the choice of Nusantara on their part does not seem to me to be the best choice; we are not talking about ten or fifteen sports facilities to be built, we are talking about an entire city. It will take a little more than 12 years, in my opinion.

For Istanbul... this seems to be the logical candidate if we want to limit ourselves to countries which have never hosted the Games. But I have the impression that he is the “too” logical candidate. I can't help but make the comparison with the organization of the European Nations Football Championship: it was still necessary to wait for their 6th candidacy for them to finally win the organization (and as co-organizer with. .. Italy?!) when logically they should have had it well before.

Otherwise, for the city I want, I hesitate between Rhine/Rhur (ok it's not a city) and Budapest.

[Sir Rols]

6 hours ago, Guilga said:

Bach might pull a Durban or something out of the blue the same way he pulled Nice for 2030…

Then, the actual candidates will show themselves until the time one of them convince Bach enough. Remember that 2030 french bid realized itself just a few months before their preferred dialogue status was gained,

Fair enough, and precisely why I put in the obligatory “other” category. But I’d be interested to hear who you think could come out of the blue? When I put together the list/options, I thought I was pretty exhaustive, maybe too exhaustive. I listed anybody who’s even been suspected of being in the  “crowded field of interested parties” and then some. Just about everyone in Europe bar France and Scandinavia, ditto Asia bar Thailand, the Philippines or Malaysia. For South America thought it was stretching it to include Santiago (but they did make an Olympic comment after the PanAms, so). I don’t think we can seriously expect a candidate out of Africa - at a pinch maybe Morocco (which I included earlier but replaced when I realised I’d stuffed up on Istanbul). Morocco or maybe Saudi Arabia are the only “wild cards” I could think of or envisage.

6 hours ago, Guilga said:

I feel that it might be too early to really say who might snap 2036 with the way things are going currently.

 

4 minutes ago, sebastien1214 said:

With the "New Norm", the selection process has become so unclear that I am unable to make any sort of prediction. I mean, I have the feeling that since 2032 bids the chosen host city has been chosen solely by Bach and his friends, and I don't know them well enough to get into their minds.

 

Which is sorta the point. With the “New Norm” we really have no idea of when it’s too early, and can only guess from the little we can piece together who’s in contention or what their chances might be. It’s more of a snapshot of where our current thoughts and predictions are now, and a bit of a challenge to see who ends up guessing right. And it’s always been the main interest here on GamesBids to try and pick the next host(s) - it’s what most of us came here for.

 

Edited March 29 by Sir Rols

[iceman530]

4 hours ago, StefanMUC said:

And Erdo might not be present anymore by then. 

Through an IOC lens, thats a blessing and a curse.

[Guilga]

2 hours ago, FYI said:

Who else do you possibly envision, that we haven't already, or are not part of the so-called "crowded field of interested parties" that are viable enough that could still emerge to convince Bach enough? If anything, everyone who is serious about 2036 should be trying to court Bach now, because of FOMO, cause they don't want to be left out in the cold again like the were for 2032. Qatar has already made clear, they aren't looking for a repeat of that. Nice I think is another matter altogether, since the IOC totally skipped 2030 in order to "award" Coates his Brisbane as early as possible.

 

25 minutes ago, Sir Rols said:

Fair enough, and precisely why I put in the obligatory “other” category. But I’d be interested to hear who you think could come out of the blue? When I put together the list/options, I thought I was pretty exhaustive, maybe too exhaustive. I listed anybody who’s even been suspected of being in the  “crowded field of interested parties” and then some. Just about everyone in Europe bar France and Scandinavia, ditto Asia bar Thailand, the Philippines or Malaysia. For South America thought it was stretching it to include Santiago (but they did make an Olympic comment after the PanAms, so). I don’t think we can seriously expect a candidate out of Africa - at a pinch maybe Morocco (which I included earlier but replaced when I realised I’d stuffed up on Istanbul). Morocco or maybe Saudi Arabia are the only “wild cards” I could think of or envisage.

Hummm. Good question. Who could show up out of the blue... Actually, i put other just because i felt that could happen, but alas, i should had been smarter and read more closely the list; it was indeed that expansive. But enough self-loathing, who else could be there, after i checked the list after some thinking.

Saudi Arabia. 

You could argue that Doha, and Qatar by proxy, might be already filling the Middle East favorite candidate role, but the bigger power in the region will host Asian Games in 2034, alongside a World Cup almost guaranteed in the same year. Pulling those two togheter at the same time, alongside a growing investment of the Saudi Kingdom in sport soft power to make the rough transition to no-oil land easier... Of course, the same problems Qatar has are amplified in this case, but if the OCA is fine to have them their Asiad, Summer and Winter (Renember Trojena?), whos to say.