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Nice-Alpes Françaises 2030


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8 minutes ago, FYI said:

Whaaaa? :blink: I thought that was pretty much a done deal, & why the IOC jumped on France 2030 & told Sweden to take a hike. They better get cracken then, if they want to meet that deadline. Otherwise, it'll be an awkward "double"-award ceremony come July 24th in Paris then! ^_^

It's a done deal since Macron supports the project, so it will happen anyway. That's why just after I put things into perspective by saying that we shouldn't worry. Let's say that if it takes so long, it's because we are in classic political negotiations, but a solution will obviously be found before June 11 since politically no one (whether Macron or the regional presidents) has any interest to fail this. The interest of the article is above all to show behind the balance of power which plays out between the different parties involved, and how this can be reflected in the organization of these Olympic Games.

6 minutes ago, cfm Jeremie said:

No need to be defensive. Merely pointing out that rounding up by 600 million is not unsignificant (you actually inflated the budget by 36%)...

So yes, currently (and you are right we won't know the figure until Q1 or Q2 2025), the budget is significantly smaller than 5 billion.

+€600M compared to a base of €4.4B, that’s around +13.5%, not +36%. But here we are really trying to split hairs (this discussion will have at least allowed me to discover this English expression)

But yes, the OCOG 2024 budget is less than 5 billion euros (which no one here disputes, and which is true; and I think this will still be the case when we have the final results 2025), but I think that everyone who read my message here understood that the interest was above all to say that the budgets of OCOG 2024 and Solideo* 2024 are similar, and that it was the only point that I wanted to address, not launch into a precise estimate of Paris 2024 which, in addition to being premature, would be completely off-topic knowing that we are talking about 2030 here.

*(it's a very French acronym. I wonder if there is an English equivalent, but on the other hand I don't know if other Olympic Games have done like Paris in 2024, with two organizations rather than one)

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You are absolutely right. I stand corrected, the increase is only 13.4%.

 

I just think that talking about "rough order of magnitude" when we are talking hundred of millions of Euros is a bad habit as it makes one lose perspective about the very significant amount of money and that you could have made the same point (i.e. putting into perspective Paris 2024 and SOLIDEO 's respective budget) with more accurate figure. But if you considere that splitting hair it's your call.

 

And yes, Paris 2024 model is nothing new: Sydney 2000, Torino 2006, London 2012, Sochi 2014 had similar models (i.e. an OCOG and an Olympic Delivery Agency for the infrastructure).

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24 minutes ago, cfm Jeremie said:

No need to be defensive.

 

8 minutes ago, sebastien1214 said:

But here we are really trying to split hairs (this discussion will have at least allowed me to discover this English expression)

That's par-for-the-course here on GB's!! :lol:

9 minutes ago, sebastien1214 said:

That's why just after I put things into perspective by saying that we shouldn't worry. 

Yes, I know. Hence the tongue-in-cheek ^_^ emoji I placed at the end of that sentence.

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On 6/6/2024 at 4:18 PM, sebastien1214 said:

For the moment, the French State has still not given the necessary guarantees to the IOC (they have until June 11 for that).

Well, here we are, June 11. And we don't really have a government here, it's just a group of people screaming and running everywhere because of the surprise election next month.

https://www.lequipe.fr/Tous-sports/Article/L-etat-livrera-t-il-a-temps-la-garantie-exigee-par-le-cio-pour-les-jo-d-hiver-2030/1473895

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So should we change from "we shouldn't worry", to maybe we should worry now. Since how likely was this current situation forecasted even just a week ago? Since this could potentially have big ramnifications for Nice 2030. Would really like to hear what some of the conversations are like over BNC headquaters right now, that's for sure.

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It will probably be signed on time. By a Prime Minister who has lost all his political legitimacy but is still trying to negotiate with the presidents of the hosting regions to determine who has to guarantee what.

And as said in the article, it is quite symbolic: the definitive guarantees have to be validated during the vote on the budget next autumn at the National Assembly.

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1 hour ago, FYI said:

So should we change from "we shouldn't worry", to maybe we should worry now. Since how likely was this current situation forecasted even just a week ago? Since this could potentially have big ramnifications for Nice 2030. Would really like to hear what some of the conversations are like over BNC headquaters right now, that's for sure.

I will tell you that even an hour before the announcement of early elections, you would have to be crazy to think of that. Because rationally it makes no sense.

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If one manages to forget the possible consequences the French elections are developing into a very amusing soap opera.

Probably no call to worry about the guarantees unless RN is firmly against the 2030 games (I don't have that detailed knowledge about French politics). Awkward for the Four-letter Man and his cronies though.

Otherwise I had not expected the olympic problems to start until after the presidential elections in 2027. The 2030 WOGs are essentially a project driven by three individuals. The whole thing is only possible because Macron has the will and power to bang the other two heads together. Will the next president have the interest (and power) to do that?

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Couple of notes - IOC expects the guarantees to be delivered prior to the IOC Session on July 24th

Additionally, the IOC ExBo has proposed to the same Session the initial sports programme for 2030, which is made up of 7 sports:

  1. Biathlon
  2. Bobsleigh
  3. Curling
  4. Ice Hockey
  5. Luge
  6. Skating
  7. Skiing

This follows the same model being used for LA28 in which the initial sports programme is agreed on, followed by the adoption of specific sport disciplines and the inclusion of additional sports.

For 2030, the disciplines for each sport would be decided next year, and the event programme + athlete quotas will be finalized "no later than 2027"

https://olympics.com/ioc/news/ioc-eb-proposes-to-the-ioc-session-the-initial-sports-programme-for-the-olympic-winter-games-2030

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1 hour ago, Bear said:

IOC expects the guarantees to be delivered prior to the IOC Session on July 24th

More details: there is a deal between the State and the host collectivities to determine who will pay what, but no Prime Minister (with political legitimacy) to sign it, so we have to wait for the elections on July 7 to have a new government.

The main risk is to not have a clear winner after the elections. But even in that case, a day-to-day government will have to be put in place to do minor daily tasks as, for example, manage the Paris Olympics.

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4 hours ago, Bear said:

IOC expects the guarantees to be delivered prior to the IOC Session on July 24th

Expectations & actuality are two different things, though. Especially if Macron's huge political gamble doesn't pay off on July 7th.

3 hours ago, Cyriln said:

The main risk is to not have a clear winner after the elections. But even in that case, a day-to-day government will have to be put in place to do minor daily tasks as, for example, manage the Paris Olympics.

I've always said, before the surprise, right outta-the-box "French Alps" 2030 candidacy, that France should really concentrate all of their efforts on the huge undertaking that is already Paris 2024, before embarking on another Olympic endeavor.

But considering it looks like it was mainly Macron's doing, I'm starting to see now that this was all a behind-closed-door "new-norm" deal between Bach & Macron. So in that sense, Sweden 2030 never really stood a chance anyway.

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On 6/13/2024 at 1:12 AM, FYI said:

Expectations & actuality are two different things, though. Especially if Macron's huge political gamble doesn't pay off on July 7th.

I've always said, before the surprise, right outta-the-box "French Alps" 2030 candidacy, that France should really concentrate all of their efforts on the huge undertaking that is already Paris 2024, before embarking on another Olympic endeavor.

But considering it looks like it was mainly Macron's doing, I'm starting to see now that this was all a behind-closed-door "new-norm" deal between Bach & Macron. So in that sense, Sweden 2030 never really stood a chance anyway.

Sweden constant mistake in their bids is thinking they can force the IOC to bend to their will. An organization which unlike FIFA still wants to show they are in absolute control of their circus. A huge audacity when you remember they often have a lack of either popular or government support (or both) in their bids. On the oppossite side, while the french bid had no popular support at all, Macron's doormat attitude toward Bach was all they needed to get the blessing from the Olympic Champion 1976.

Now, with the strong possibility of having a far right government in France very soon, you still can't help but wonder if the guys in Laussane ended up betting for the wrong horse this time.

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11 hours ago, Ikarus360 said:

Sweden constant mistake in their bids is thinking they can force the IOC to bend to their will. An organization which unlike FIFA still wants to show they are in absolute control of their circus. A huge audacity when you remember they often have a lack of either popular or government support (or both) in their bids. On the oppossite side, while the french bid had no popular support at all, Macron's doormat attitude toward Bach was all they needed to get the blessing from the Olympic Champion 1976.

Now, with the strong possibility of having a far right government in France very soon, you still can't help but wonder if the guys in Laussane ended up betting for the wrong horse this time.

Even if their bid was flawed in many ways, SOK (always keep the distinction between NOC and "country" in mind) was actually not trying to bend IOC to its will. What they did was playing by the book. IOC didn't. IOC expects people to growel a bit more than officially required.

However, IOC was right when they assumed guarantees would not be forthcoming within the required timeframe. SOK themselves had f***ed that up all by themselves without involving the government (actually that was the problem).

I will not detail my pet theory that the SOK bid was a complete success and achieved it's aim already in May last year (which did not include arranging any WOGs)

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4 hours ago, Sigh said:

Even if their bid was flawed in many ways, SOK (always keep the distinction between NOC and "country" in mind) was actually not trying to bend IOC to its will. What they did was playing by the book. IOC didn't. IOC expects people to growel a bit more than officially required.

However, IOC was right when they assumed guarantees would not be forthcoming within the required timeframe. SOK themselves had f***ed that up all by themselves without involving the government (actually that was the problem).

I will not detail my pet theory that the SOK bid was a complete success and achieved it's aim already in May last year (which did not include arranging any WOGs)

I'm intrigued by that theory though...why would you bid while specifically not wanting to win?!

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So, to talk again about the current situation of the bid.

We therefore have until July 24 to submit the necessary guarantees, knowing that a French government must be formed for this.

The second round of legislative elections will take place on July 7. So that leaves 17 days. Two options that seem to me to be the most likely:

- The RN (and their allies) obtain an absolute majority, i.e. at least 289 deputies. A catastrophe for the country, but the assurance that a disastrous government will be formed very quickly. I don't see the RN canceling the bid for 2030, and I think they will quickly sign the commitment of the French State.

- The RN and their allies do not obtain an absolute majority (let's say they would obtain a maximum of 250 deputies? I think that between 250 and 289 deputies they would still try to form a minority government), and no one could govern the country . We would then have a paralyzed Assembly, and the only solution that would be available to end the crisis would be an Italian-style technical government (2021-2022 with Draghi). But then in this scenario, the formation of a government would take much longer, and it would perhaps not be operational by July 24.

So my question, which is actually an open question: in this scenario, what are the plan Bs? Postpone the deadline again? The simplest, but which would be a great admission of weakness for the IOC (from my point of view), or it looks like it is dictated by the political agenda of a country. Relaunch an application process? Four and a half years before the Games, it seems suicidal to me. But who knows?

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1 hour ago, yoshi said:

I'm intrigued by that theory though...why would you bid while specifically not wanting to win?!

In my personal view the issue was the chairmanship of SOK. Mind you, this is my own little conspiracy theory.

 

The previous SOK chairman had been forced to take a "time-out" on November 28, 2022.

On January 27, 2023 he resigned formally. There were two strong candidates to succeed him,

On February 8 the bid was launced. The insider of the two candidates was placed in charge of the bid.

Some higly visible proactive actions during February, March and April but not adressing the most important and difficult aspects.

On April 21 (sorry I misremembered) von Uthmann was elected chairman with the less than overwhelming vote of 22-18 despite being the front man for the bid.

After that I have not been able to see any proactive move from SOK. They were only going through the motions such as completing the study (without any big press conference), turning up when asked and handing in the formal bid. They didn't even complete the necessary paperwork to request government guarantees, despite being prodded by the government. The processing time was estimated to be five months (i.e. if initiated on December 1 2023 the guarantee decision would have been ready in April or May).

 

I'm probably biased but I didn't think that the present SOK chairman appeared to be very unhappy when the IOC pulled the plug.

 

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6 minutes ago, sebastien1214 said:

So, to talk again about the current situation of the bid.

We therefore have until July 24 to submit the necessary guarantees, knowing that a French government must be formed for this.

The second round of legislative elections will take place on July 7. So that leaves 17 days. Two options that seem to me to be the most likely:

- The RN (and their allies) obtain an absolute majority, i.e. at least 289 deputies. A catastrophe for the country, but the assurance that a disastrous government will be formed very quickly. I don't see the RN canceling the bid for 2030, and I think they will quickly sign the commitment of the French State.

- The RN and their allies do not obtain an absolute majority (let's say they would obtain a maximum of 250 deputies? I think that between 250 and 289 deputies they would still try to form a minority government), and no one could govern the country . We would then have a paralyzed Assembly, and the only solution that would be available to end the crisis would be an Italian-style technical government (2021-2022 with Draghi). But then in this scenario, the formation of a government would take much longer, and it would perhaps not be operational by July 24.

So my question, which is actually an open question: in this scenario, what are the plan Bs? Postpone the deadline again? The simplest, but which would be a great admission of weakness for the IOC (from my point of view), or it looks like it is dictated by the political agenda of a country. Relaunch an application process? Four and a half years before the Games, it seems suicidal to me. But who knows?

My belief is that the 2030 games will be held in France whether there will be guarantees in the foreseeable future or not. IOC has no alternative. SLC will not budge from 2034. Regarding the Swiss Olympic bid the IOC basically said "we like it, except everything that's in it". Sweden? I don't think so.

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13 hours ago, Sigh said:

 SLC will not budge from 2034. 

And all the marketing whizzes and USOPC are right about having SLC 2034 being too close to LA 2028 and facing a dearth of sponsorships.  Right now, LA28 only has Delta and Comcast as their Premiere Partners --and I don't know at what cost that is?  Maybe $50 mil in cash and $25 mil in other services and kind?  
At this time in 1980, four years before 1984, Ueberroth and his team had signed up their Top 12 Sponsor categories.  (Of course, it was only $4 million each then.  So, at this rate, only Comcast/NBC will be sponsoring SLC if SLC was moved to 2030.  (Luckily, LA28 is flush with cash, so they can be picky and patient with whomever they can get in that $75 million(?) Partnership range.  (Amazon?  Apple?  Tesla? Disney? Walmart?)  

Edited by baron-pierreIV
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8 hours ago, sebastien1214 said:

But then in this scenario, the formation of a government would take much longer, and it would perhaps not be operational by July 24.

In that case, the current government would remain in place as a caretaker government, which could only do that kind of urgent tasks that can't wait.

As you said, the assignment is not controversial, nobody would complain if a government like that signs it.

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The guarantees will come but it probably will take some time.

After the first round it looks like RN will not get a majority of its own. RN has ruled out to govern under those circumstances. Even if RN changes its mind it's uncertain they'd be able to cobble together a majority in the assembly that supports them.

However, forming a government from the left is even more unlikely.

 

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I am willing this through because there's realistically no other option lol.  Slightly nervous times ahead, but I think France 2030 will be okay.  2034 will also be okay.  Nerves will start again in 2038 in the likely even Switzerland backs out.

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