2030: Besides SLC, who are the realistic knights in shining armor

[iceman530]

2026 saw a late bid from Italy that eventually won the whole show.  Who are the plausible knight in shining armor candidates that could save this thing?  Are there any?  Given previous and recent bids with polls in countries like Norway, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Spain, I consider them nonstarters.  Erzurum also being outright told "no" even with the sparse field tells me they're a no go too.  Sochi, well.....duh.  Beijing just hosted.  South Korea wasnt exactly a memorable games either nor a country that would be called in an emergency.  So where do we go? what do we look at?  Who stands the most remote chance of being interested and getting in the game.  

Vancouver is in a drug induced coma and is all-but brain dead.  I see no hope there.

Is there any hope......any hope at all of a France-exclusive bid?  Something like Lyon as the host and Val D'Isere and other mountains?  Even throw french side of Geneva in on the party?  I know Chamonix recently said no.  

Is Stockholm-Are-Baltics possible to be revived?  Didnt the polling go poorly last time with them too?

Will the A-city be coaxed to get back in the game?  

[StefanMUC]

I guess South Korea is eyeing Summer Olympics again as soon as possible, so I doubt they‘d jump in here, even though they probably could, memorable or not.

[cfm Jeremie]

I agree that, although unlikely given their summer games ambition, Korea is probably one of the few recent hosts that could step in without creating a major political headache: all the competition venues are in place, the football Stadium in Gangneung could be used for the ceremonies and I am certain a solution could be found for the Villages.

Whether they want to is another topic.

[FYI]

France can do it alone, but as I mentioned in other threads, I seriously doubt that the French are even looking at 2030 at this point in time. They're surely laser-focused with Paris 2024 right now, as they should be. It's only us GB's nerds here that are thrusting them forward for 2030 because of the IOC's current dilemma with 2030.

Maybe come early 2025, & if Paris 2024 goes mostly smooth, it could be a different story. But then again, that would mean that a) the IOC delaying the 2030 decision that long, & b) would the French even still be interested in putting themselves under that amount of stress so soon after, with only five years to prepare for 2030, when the Winter Games themselves have become so gargantuan in the last 20 years. That's why I'd say that 2034 is a more likely target for them, & if they're even interested in another Olympics.

[Sir Rols]

If this was two years ago, and the IOC wasn’t fixated on stitching up settling 2032 instead of focussing on their more immediate needs, they might have more options or favours to call in. But by this point the time constraints, and the size of the show these days, makes it a pretty tall order to come up with a last minute saviour.

With what, a year? Or two if they really wanna stretch it out into danger territory? They have to court a new host that would be able to get its plans and logistics together, find funding, negotiate all the political support and guarantees they’d need, sell it to local businesses and the public and then reassure the IOC it can all be ready to go in five years. I think only a dictatorship could pull that off. One with a big workforce it could throw at the project.

Hmmmmm? Maybe Trojena’s not looking too bad after all…… 

[FYI]

Exactly, & the longer they wait, the worse it's gonna be for 2030. And yeah, the rush for 2032 was totally just to 'reward' a certain VP, & now it looks like it's biting them right in the a$s. 

36 minutes ago, Sir Rols said:

Hmmmmm? Maybe Trojena’s not looking too bad after all…… 

[stryker]

I thought about this very same idea yesterday. Right now, the IOC should be doing all it can to appease the folks in Salt Lake to get them to host in 2030. Open the checkbook and get it done. However this is the IOC we are talking about and since it's run by Bach, Coates, and Dubi (the equivalents of Mo, Larry, and Curly), I'm not so sure they are willing to do just that. So if not Salt Lake then who? On this short of notice, it has to be a recent host. Pyeongchang would fit the bill and as much as it will cause controversy, Beijing can certainly do it. I'd even say Beijing is on more ready ground than Pyeongchang. Building a new OV won't be an issue under a totalitarian regime since dissent isn't tolerated. Before anyone mentions the human rights issue, that's hardly been a concern to the IOC before and even with the new human rights paper work, and I emphasize the word paperwork because that's all it is, the IOC would be more than happy I think to go back to Beijing for 2030 if they had no other options.

Beyond those two, there aren't really any other options unless Milan-Cortina wants to host again (they'd have everything ready). I would say Sochi is a candidate but we all know that's not happening.

[iceman530]

If there was no war Id absolutely say Sochi absolutely would have been a candidate.  Russia isn't gonna get this stink off for the next half century though, and rightfully so.  Just a nation that is collectively rotten to the core.

 

[iceman530]

2 hours ago, Sir Rols said:

If this was two years ago, and the IOC wasn’t fixated on stitching up settling 2032 instead of focussing on their more immediate needs, they might have more options or favours to call in. But by this point the time constraints, and the size of the show these days, makes it a pretty tall order to come up with a last minute saviour.

With what, a year? Or two if they really wanna stretch it out into danger territory? They have to court a new host that would be able to get its plans and logistics together, find funding, negotiate all the political support and guarantees they’d need, sell it to local businesses and the public and then reassure the IOC it can all be ready to go in five years. I think only a dictatorship could pull that off. One with a big workforce it could throw at the project.

Hmmmmm? Maybe Trojena’s not looking too bad after all…… 

If they wait two years, they basically have no choice but to execute the SLC ejection parachute.  That is extremely, extremely short notice if it is awarded with 5 years to spare, and only the likes of the United States, Japan, France, Germany, and maybe Sweden and Norway could pull something off with THAT short of notice.  

If you are going to get Almaty on board, you gotta lock it in NLT summer 2024 Id think, possibly even 2023.  If that, or a knight in shining armor doesnt emerge, you gotta give it to SLC and crack the checkbook, no choice.

[FYI]

People over there are still distraught over the events that happened there last January. Concerned over equality & their (poor) living standards. So doubtful that many, if any, have the Olympics are their minds at the moment.

But then again, it is a dictatorship over there after all, so who cares what their people think. But then again, again, would the IOC want to touch that right now with a ten-foot pole (even though they love strong-arm gov'ts. But that's when the gamble can pay off big, though). Seems highly unlikely. At this point, it's starting to look more like SLC or bust. And the more the IOC twiddles their thumbs, the more down the sh!t hole they get. 

[Sir Rols]

42 minutes ago, iceman530 said:

If they wait two years, they basically have no choice but to execute the SLC ejection parachute.  That is extremely, extremely short notice if it is awarded with 5 years to spare, and only the likes of the United States, Japan, France, Germany, and maybe Sweden and Norway could pull something off with THAT short of notice.  

It’s not just a matter of who’s got the facilities to do it easily though. It’s getting the funding, the political guarantees, the public support and the sponsorships in order. That’s something democracies can’t do in short order - and considering prevailing attitudes in democracies towards the IOC and the cost benefits of the games probably not feasible at al. Only SLC has managed to do it, and they’ve had the time to work on it.

[iceman530]

3 hours ago, Sir Rols said:

It’s not just a matter of who’s got the facilities to do it easily though. It’s getting the funding, the political guarantees, the public support and the sponsorships in order. That’s something democracies can’t do in short order - and considering prevailing attitudes in democracies towards the IOC and the cost benefits of the games probably not feasible at al. Only SLC has managed to do it, and they’ve had the time to work on it.

Exactly.  Realistically, this needs to get done this year.  It would be playing with fire letting this roll into 2024.  Given that SLC is well-versed from their 2002 experience, they could streamline that aspect quickly one would think.  That said, if you are going to 2024 with no other options, you better just award it to SLC in 2023 for their convenience because literally only SLC could get their ducks in a row for a 2024 announcement.  If this rolls to 2024, you literally dont consider anyone else.  2023 is really the last chance dance.  Hopefully they have a plan.  I highly doubt they do though

 

[StefanMUC]

7 hours ago, iceman530 said:

If there was no war Id absolutely say Sochi absolutely would have been a candidate.  Russia isn't gonna get this stink off for the next half century though, and rightfully so.  Just a nation that is collectively rotten to the core.

 

Interested parties are already trying to wash „this stink“ off though to preserve the „universality“ of the Olympics.

Munich was awarded in 1966, 21 years after WW2 ended. (West) Germany wanted to demonstrate that we‘re a different nation than the one until 1945. Only under such circumstances (i.e. fully acknowledging responsibility for the war) should Russia (and its appendix Lukashenkistan) be allowed back or even host.

But I doubt we‘ll get to the point of that acknowledgement anytime soon and the IOC will certainly try to find ways to let them in regardless. 2030 is definitely off though unless the IOC wants to kill both the WOG and itself in one go.

[cube]

If Germany wouldn´t be that uptight they could offer Munich and all would be fine ..... 
all they would need it would be a olympic village

German NOC should make a move toward Bavaria and ask to add a olympic ballot to the state election in autumn.
that would guarantee a high turn out and with a high turn out you could win the ballot.
(cause usually the supporters don´t take part in the ballots while the haters always show up)

and then the IOC could hand it to Munich just like they did it with Brisbane


 

[StefanMUC]

Bavaria‘s PM is desperate to make this election a triumph for him. He will push aside any issues where he cannot be 100% sure that a majority approves them.

I agree that the lack of combination Bavarian election (held in Sep 13)/referendum 2022 (Nov 13) and the lower turn out for the latter was a major reason for the referendum loss.

But 10 years on, not even such a combination could help public support over the line I fear.

[Quaker2001]

9 hours ago, StefanMUC said:

Interested parties are already trying to wash „this stink“ off though to preserve the „universality“ of the Olympics.

Munich was awarded in 1966, 21 years after WW2 ended. (West) Germany wanted to demonstrate that we‘re a different nation than the one until 1945. Only under such circumstances (i.e. fully acknowledging responsibility for the war) should Russia (and its appendix Lukashenkistan) be allowed back or even host.

But I doubt we‘ll get to the point of that acknowledgement anytime soon and the IOC will certainly try to find ways to let them in regardless. 2030 is definitely off though unless the IOC wants to kill both the WOG and itself in one go.

As long as Vladimir Putin is alive, Russia will be toxic to the brand of any international sports event, let alone the Olympics.  Maybe the events of 2022 will fade and settle themselves in time to somewhat restore the country's reputation on the world front from that standpoint.  But as a sports entity, there's a lot more to apologize for.  I imagine the next Olympics in Russia will be a Summer Olympics, but I have a feeling some of us here won't be alive to see it because it's at least 20-30 years down the road

[Quaker2001]

16 hours ago, iceman530 said:

If they wait two years, they basically have no choice but to execute the SLC ejection parachute.  That is extremely, extremely short notice if it is awarded with 5 years to spare, and only the likes of the United States, Japan, France, Germany, and maybe Sweden and Norway could pull something off with THAT short of notice.  

If you are going to get Almaty on board, you gotta lock it in NLT summer 2024 Id think, possibly even 2023.  If that, or a knight in shining armor doesnt emerge, you gotta give it to SLC and crack the checkbook, no choice.

Sweden and Norway are relatively small countries.  I'd give Sweden a better chance only because they have a slightly more recent bid.  But the problem with them is you need the cooperation of a lot of different entities, including another country.  That's tough to throw together.

If the will was there for a France or a Germany, they could probably throw something together.  That's far easier said than done though.  And really the only reason the United States is in that discussion is because they have Salt Lake.  It's not like Denver or Tahoe could get their act together quick enough to make those work.

I don't know who the IOC thinks could emerge from the shadows.  Or perhaps they know it's a completely lost cause and they're just delaying the inevitable with Salt Lake.

22 hours ago, StefanMUC said:

I guess South Korea is eyeing Summer Olympics again as soon as possible, so I doubt they‘d jump in here, even though they probably could, memorable or not.

They also have the 2024 Youth Winter Olympics.  So I doubt they have any appetite for another Winter Olympics bid until after that

[Brekkie Boy]

This is where the current behind closed doors bidding process is an absolute failure.   No bidding process is perfect and all are open to corruption, but for decades we had a cycle that essentially worked of the host city being selected around 7 years before the games and one process being worked on at a time.

As mentioned above they were so focused on inexplicably giving the 2032 games to Brisbane without a bidding process (despite wide interest) that 2030 was overlooked completely.   Of the options supposedly on the table Salt Lake City is probably the safest bet - not overly keen on back to back summer and winter games in one country but would rather see the games in the US than a third Asian games in four cycles, as much as I'd like to see Sapporo host.

[SportLightning]

Looks like Sweden might have a strong chance to host the 2030 Winter Olympics with Stockholm as possible host city.

https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1133475/sweden-2030

[Quaker2001]

9 minutes ago, SportLightning said:

Looks like Sweden might have a strong chance to host the 2030 Winter Olympics with Stockholm as possible host city.

https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1133475/sweden-2030

Maybe let's pump the brakes a little before we jump from "has started a preliminary study" to "they have a strong chance to host."

Certainly helps that they went through the full bid process of 2026, so it's not like they're starting from scratch.  But their downfall last time was public support.  So unless they have that issue in better shape - even at a time when the IOC lacks other options - this may not get very far.  To say nothing of the fact that the Nordic countries released a joint statement speaking out against the IOC for the inclusion of Russia

[Sir Rols]

Sweden is the one I’d WANT to see come to fruition. But, yeah, a bit early to start building hopes up yet. And I still think the tight deadline is a huge hurdle to get everything - support, finances, guarantees etc - up in time. But I guess the 2026 plan does give a bit of a head start in that.

I’ll be overjoyed when/if I see it, but I’m tempering any excitement for the moment..

[StefanMUC]

Why should the Swedish NOC, currently at odds with the IOC, want to become the saviour?

[Sir Rols]

10 minutes ago, StefanMUC said:

Why should the Swedish NOC, currently at odds with the IOC, want to become the saviour?

Yet it’s the NOC that has started the “preliminary study” and initiated talks with the IOC. They seem to be the driving force at this stage. Participation of Russia in 2024 is a separate issue, though it could well play into efforts to win public support.

[FYI]

1 hour ago, Quaker2001 said:

**But their downfall last time was public support.**  So unless they have that issue in better shape - even at a time when the IOC lacks other options - this may not get very far. 

That, & the unwillingness of Stockholm city hall to hand over a blank check. But yeah, as long as those couple of very important elements have been addressed quite satisfactorily first, it doesn't matter what the NOC in this case is doing, or would like to do.

[Sir Rols]

2 minutes ago, FYI said:

That, & the unwillingness of Stockholm city hall to hand over a blank check. But yeah, as long as those couple of very important elements have been addressed quite satisfactorily first, it doesn't matter what the NOC in this case is doing, or would like to do.

Interesting to see in the GamesBids story (it’s been posted on Facebook but not here yet at time of writing) that Stockholm’s support for 2026 was at 55 per cent and cited as a reason for the loss. Yet, when Sapporo recorded similar or less last year (before it totally collapsed), so many here were rushing to say “That’s good enough! Quick, sign them up now before they change their minds or have a referendum”.