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Draft ordinance for Sapporo 2030 Olympic bid referendum expected to be rejected in Monday City Assembly vote


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A draft ordinance brought to the Sapporo City Assembly Thursday proposes a public referendum be held to approve the city’s 2030 Olympic and Paralympic Games bid. The Communist Party proposed the ordinance in response to what it believes to be poor polling results from an official survey taken earlier this year that showed as low […]

The post Draft ordinance for Sapporo 2030 Olympic bid referendum expected to be rejected in Monday City Assembly vote appeared first on GamesBids.com.

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Just now, AustralianFan said:

Yep, agree with Rob

 

But Sapporo may come up with an alternative measure of public opinion, one which is more inclusive of younger voters rather than the older ones who tend to vote no in referendums. 

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So the Sapporo 2030 has temporarily stalled for now as the local law authorising a public vote (referendum) to be held is expected to be defeated.  

So, its not the Sapporo 2030 Olympics themselves which will is expected to be defeated on Monday but a law allowing a public vote on hosting the Games.  The reason is that referendums as a measure of opinion tend to have higher participation by older, more conservative citizens who tend to vote ‘No’.

They are working out a way to also demonstrate to the IOC of public support amongst all citizens and particularly including the younger generstion who in a separate in-person opinion poll in March were in favour of a Sapporo 2030 Winter Olympics with an overall 65% supporting the Games.

Keeping in mind that the IOC want to see that the Games have majority public support but majority public support doesn’t have to be through a public vote such as referendum or plebiscite. A public vote is not the only way to demonstrate public support.

Public votes on Olympic Games have sunk bids dead in their tracks in the past as we know so Sapporo City Assembly are now prepared to vote against passing a law which authorises a public vote from happening at all and find another way.

Salt Lake City 2030 demonstrated to the IOC 87% majority public support for their bid and so a public vote is not happening there.

Brisbane 2032 won their Games by demonstrating to the IOC 65% public support without holding a public vote. 

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Particularly problematic for Sapporo 2030, though, in not holding a public referendum is the fact that, demographically, Sapporo and the Hokkaido region ARE older.  It's all well and good that the younger folks support the bid in higher percentages, but it should be worrisome that the support is so soft among the older people because that IS the majority of the voting-age population by a wider margin, especially compared to other cities where a failed public referendum has killed an Olympic bid.  Basically, what it boils down to is the Sapporo 2030 organizers need to do more to demonstrate greater support among older demographics - how they accomplish that in the next six months before any cities are named for "targeted dialogue" is anyone's guess.

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It's not so much support now, especially if you don't need to have a referendum to show the IOC before the awarding, but it does feel like the risk of a Denver is worryingly high with this bid. I hope I'm wrong because Japan deserves it for literally saving the Olympics, but I suspect the IOC will be pursuing Salt Lake for that reason alone. 

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3 hours ago, yoshi said:

It's not so much support now, especially if you don't need to have a referendum to show the IOC before the awarding, but it does feel like the risk of a Denver is worryingly high with this bid. I hope I'm wrong because Japan deserves it for literally saving the Olympics, but I suspect the IOC will be pursuing Salt Lake for that reason alone. 

Yeah, but the USOPC is pushing back on a 2030 slot.  Who knows?  Vancouver might just sneak in there for 2030.  If they get named as a 2026 United site, I don't know how that will affect support for 2030 or not.  

Edited by baron-pierreIV
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5 hours ago, Australian Kiwi said:

was allocated. 

 

Just now, AustralianFan said:

Totally incorrect.

Three separate opinion polls showed an average  65% support from the people of South East Queensland.

No public vote was held for Brisbane 2032 as the IOC satisfied it held majority citizens support.

Brisbane elevated to Targeted Dialogue and then elected as host.

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On 6/6/2022 at 4:07 AM, AustralianFan said:

 

Three separate opinion polls showed an average  65% support from the people of South East Queensland.

No public vote was held for Brisbane 2032 as the IOC satisfied it held majority citizens support.

Brisbane elevated to Targeted Dialogue and then elected as host.

 

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4 hours ago, Quaker2001 said:

 

Milano-Cortina was elected in 2019 as the 2026 Winter Games host on the back of being able to demonstrate majority public support without holding a referendum or public vote. 

Two years later in 2021, Brisbane was elected  the 2032 Summer Games host on the back of being able to demonstrate majority public support without holding a referendum or public vote. 

 Milan Cortina 2026 referendum ruled out because claimed so many Italians support it - 2Aor2019 - Inside the Games

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1 hour ago, AustralianFan said:

Milano-Cortina was elected in 2019 as the 2026 Winter Games host on the back of being able to demonstrate majority public support without holding a referendum or public vote. 

Two years later in 2021, Brisbane was elected  the 2032 Summer Games host on the back of being able to demonstrate majority public support without holding a referendum or public vote. 

 Milan Cortina 2026 referendum ruled out because claimed so many Italians support it - 2Aor2019 - Inside the Games

Demonstrate how?  Through an informal public opinion poll?  Because they said so?

Makes it real easier to manipulate the numbers and get them to say what you want.  Which is great if you're the IOC and trying to avoid scrutiny for your potential candidates.  But maybe not such a great way of doing business.  Especially in Japan where we know how a lot of their population felt about holding the Olympics last summer while the pandemic was still raging

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5 minutes ago, Quaker2001 said:

Demonstrate how?  Through an informal public opinion poll?  Because they said so?

Makes it real easier to manipulate the numbers and get them to say what you want.  Which is great if you're the IOC and trying to avoid scrutiny for your potential candidates.  But maybe not such a great way of doing business.  Especially in Japan where we know how a lot of their population felt about holding the Olympics last summer while the pandemic was still raging

Yes. Through public opinion polls.

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13 minutes ago, Quaker2001 said:

In other words, it's all a lot of "take our word for it."  So much for the IOC's push for more transparency

Both Milano-Cortina and Brisbane’s opinion polls were widely reported by the media. 

Nothing to do with transparency.

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9 hours ago, Australian Kiwi said:

Constantly in awe of AustralianFan's natural ability to contort logical reasoning. They would make a great press secretary for North Korea or Russia (aka Special Military Operation). 

“australian kiwi” looks like that’s your default trolling attack retort when someone disagrees with you. Plenty of examples of your destructive behaviour in these threads.
Usually indicates a lack of confidence in your own opinion.

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9 hours ago, Australian Kiwi said:

Constantly in awe of AustralianFan's natural ability to contort logical reasoning. They would make a great press secretary for North Korea or Russia (aka Special Military Operation). 

  “australian kiwi”:

What’s hiding behind that keyboard? Trolls on Gamesbids.com

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10 hours ago, Sir Rols said:

But a lot to do with accountability

It’s to do with satisfying the IOC that the candidature enjoys public support. 

Referendums have proven fatal to many bids as we all know. 

Both the elected 2026 and 2032 hosts did not go to a public vote and instead satisfied the IOC through opinion polls instead.

Those here who want to hold a referendum, can go right ahead and  promote each candidature to hold one

…. If they want to see that bid blown out of the water.

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17 minutes ago, AustralianFan said:

It’s to do with satisfying the IOC that the candidature enjoys public support. 

Referendums have proven fatal to many bids as we all know. 

Both the elected 2026 and 2032 hosts did not go to a public vote and instead satisfied the IOC through opinion polls instead.

Those here who want to hold a referendum, can go right ahead and  promote each candidature to hold one

…. If they want to see that bid blown out of the water.

Oooookay… so, in other words, private surveys are good, public votes are bad. Hmmmmm…. Democracy sucks, eh?

 

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