IOC reveals for first time it could be “in position” to elect 2030 Winter Olympics host next May

[AustralianFan]

4 hours ago, Quaker2001 said:

Is there a reason you felt compelled to reply to me in 3 separate posts, including one more time after a spirited back and forth with Bollock and Lollock?  Is that even a thing?

You don't actually need to get hyper-defensive anytime someone brings up how Brisbane 2032 came to be.  It's not an insult to them or a criticism.  It's not suggesting there's a conspiracy.  It's just acknowledging that yea, this all was a little weird.  In case you hadn't noticed, I'm not the only one who personally thinks that.  Again, to say that is not a knock against Brisbane, so you don't need to come to their defense any time sometime brings it up.  You need to find a new hobby.

This has nothing to do with Brisbane whatsoever but about New Norm and the 2030 host selection process.

It has everything to do with the first election of an Olympic host under the New Norm and the same people people in these threads wheeling out their evidence-free tired old theories of how the 2032 host came to be the 2032 host, from rusted-on old bidding system lovers.  Then trying to somehow transpose that bs over on to the 2030 process.

Rather than accepting that the entire process has changed, and unerstanding this is the New Norm, trying time and time again over the last year cooking up conspiracy theories.

What again sparked this entire current back-and-forth was yet another conspiracy theory, this time from Rols:

“we all know” …  (that indicates straight up a lack of confidence in what he is about to say by having to pad his theory from the outset with a claim of ‘we all know’ rather than leading off with what he himself strongly believes in: ‘I believe’

… they could be ready tomorrow if Bach or Coates NOCs had a bid in that needed to be fast-tracked.”

So here we have it.   Another New Norm conspiracy theory that Bach and Coates alone can fast-track a result tomorrow for the 2030 host if one of them had a candidature going for the 2030 Games.

That is nonsense and I immediately called it out for what it was:  bs.

[AustralianFan]

 2030 Winter Games Host Election Timeline

So with this announcement by the IOC, the timeline to the 2030 Host Election can be expected to be as follows, based on the 2032 timeline:

Dec 2022 - IOC Executive Board Meeting

• between now and December, the IOC Future Host Commission will continue dialogue with the four candidates: Sapporo, Salt Lake City, Vancouver and Barcelona-Pyranees
• the IOC Future Host Commission for the Olympic Winter Games will prepare recommendations to the IOC Executive Board on which candidate or candidates should be elevated to the Targeted Dialogue phase
• if the IOC Executive Board accepts the recommendations, it will approve them and then hold a media conference to announce.

Dec-Feb/Mar 2023 (approx.)

• the IOC Future Host Commission for the Olympic Winter Games commences Targeted Dialogue with the elevated candidature/s
• the Commission can be expected to prepare a Feasibility Assessment,  send the Future Host Questionnaire Winter Olympic Games to each elevated candiate/s, receive/prepare the IOC Future Host Questionnaire Response, and finally prepare the Report of the Future Host Commission for the Winter Olympic Games to the IOC Executive Board - Targeted Dialogue (Candidate’s name) 2030”
• the IOC Executive Board can be expected to accept the Commission’s  recommendation/s and then the IOC will prepare for a Host Election tonoccur at the next IOC Session.
• a media conference at this point can also be expected at this point

May 2023

• at the 140th IOC Session in Mumbai, India, the 2030 Host Election is expected to occur after the candidate presentation/s and a Q&A session. Then comes the winner announcement, signing of the Host Contract and a media comference.
• it’s entirely possible also for an election to also occur for the 2034 Winter Games, but that remains to be seen whether a double-awarding occurs or not.

 

>> Link back to the 2030 Olympic Winter Bids thread <<

 

[Guilga]

Wonder how positively recieved this "New Norm" will be if Barcelona somehow are the only bid elevated to Targeted Dialogue for 2030 instead of all the other much better options. THIS will decide how good it really is.

[FYI]

I think that would stir almost as big of an IOC scandal than the one from over 23 years ago. But this time, with one of the accused cities looking in. But first, we need to see if Barcelona even survives their winter bid referendum this summer.

[AustralianFan]

3 hours ago, Guilga said:

Wonder how positively recieved this "New Norm" will be if Barcelona somehow are the only bid elevated to Targeted Dialogue for 2030 instead of all the other much better options. THIS will decide how good it really is.

There’s zero chance of Barcelona being elevated to Targeted Dialogue, so you need not worry about that.

There is too many problems with it.   In-fighting, lack of support from certain parts of the population.  It reminds me of the similar big problems the Rhune-Rhur candidature had and why they were not elevated to Targeted Dialogue in 2021 for the 2032 Games.

 

 

[Quaker2001]

20 hours ago, Guilga said:

Wonder how positively recieved this "New Norm" will be if Barcelona somehow are the only bid elevated to Targeted Dialogue for 2030 instead of all the other much better options. THIS will decide how good it really is.

If 1 and only 1 city gets elevated to targeted dialogue, then essentially the IOC has just named their host for the 2030 games.  Can't see them handing that to the Spain bid without a fight.

[Guilga]

4 hours ago, Quaker2001 said:

If 1 and only 1 city gets elevated to targeted dialogue, then essentially the IOC has just named their host for the 2030 games.  Can't see them handing that to the Spain bid without a fight.

If a certain Saramarch has a desire to make things their way, something that no other bid have as a advantage, the fight might stop before it even starts.

But, in a ideal world, Barcelona would be out of the running already. Sapporo, Salt Lake and Vancouver involvement really make that disjointed bid a underdog. But again, this is the New Norm ultimate test: if someone gets so fast tracked that it sounds suspicious, the world at large might see this New Norm as nothing but the Executive Board doing as it pleases. If we have a actual race, maybe the public won't care as much that transparency went out of the window.

[SportLightning]

5 hours ago, Quaker2001 said:

If 1 and only 1 city gets elevated to targeted dialogue, then essentially the IOC has just named their host for the 2030 games.  Can't see them handing that to the Spain bid without a fight.

Spain is not likely to be awarded.

[AustralianFan]

46 minutes ago, Guilga said:

If a certain Saramarch has a desire to make things their way, something that no other bid have as a advantage, the fight might stop before it even starts.

But, in a ideal world, Barcelona would be out of the running already. Sapporo, Salt Lake and Vancouver involvement really make that disjointed bid a underdog. But again, this is the New Norm ultimate test: if someone gets so fast tracked that it sounds suspicious, the world at large might see this New Norm as nothing but the Executive Board doing as it pleases. If we have a actual race, maybe the public won't care as much that transparency went out of the window.

This might help in understanding the new process:

Credit: Barret extols IOC's new process for electing Olympic Games hosts - 23 May 2022 - Inside The Games

• International Olympic Committee (IOC) director of future Olympic Games hosts Jacqueline Barrett has extolled the new approach to awarding hosting rights for the multi-sport event, insisting it offers opportunities for "an open, frank and non-committal discussion" with a wider range of parties.
• The IOC has moved away from the traditional bidding process, with its Future Host Commission instead identifying and proposing its preferred candidate to the Executive Board.
• The Executive Board can then enter targeted dialogue with a bid before choosing whether or not to recommend that a proposal is brought to a vote at an IOC Session.
• Brisbane 2032 became the first edition of the Summer Olympics awarded under this format, when it entered targeted dialogue with the IOC Executive Board in February last year before having its hosting rights rubber-stamped at the 138^th Session in Tokyo.
• Barrett discussed some of the advantages to the IOC of this new process with insidethegames, arguing that it opened the field to a wider range of interested cities, regions and countries.
• "I think some of the benefits that we’re seeing everyday when we speak to people is how they like this new approach to doing things and how it’s bringing people to the table, and many of the discussions we have with interested parties is that they feel comfortable," she reflected.
• "They feel welcome coming to this process because of the new way of doing things.”
• "In the old process they might not have approached us.“
• "I think that this is a doors open policy - we’re here to be able to talk with anybody at anytime about any edition of the Games, and they might not even have an idea of what edition of the Games they want to go for.”
• "They might think we have a possibility of organising Games that they'd like to discuss with us but without any commitment, and I think that’s also the big difference.“
• "In the past people couldn’t really speak to us until we opened a process, so already at that point you’re so far down the line.”
• "Often we would have discussions, and we’d be thinking to ourselves, 'if only we’d been able to talk to them a year ago, or six months ago', because things would set in place that are difficult to change. If only we’d been able to engage earlier we could have had a much better discussion, and I think that is the beauty of this new approach.”
• "You can really have an open and frank and non-committal discussion, or a sharing of ideas.”
• "Cities, regions and NOCs [National Olympic Committees] can road test ideas, have a chat, and learn what it’s all about, without having to make any commitment. And in some respects if they don't want to, without having to have gone public yet."
• Barrett insisted that the flexibility of the approach is better suited to allowing a proposal "to mature at its own speed without it necessarily being under a public spotlight if it isn't ready to do so".
• She added that discussions also enabled the IOC to offer "the expertise that we can bring with being at the forefront of Games planning everyday" to various interested parties.
• "If a project doesn’t go forward, for us we feel it’s an investment in sport," Barrett said.
• "Any project, whatever a city or region goes on to do in the realm of sport for anything else, will perhaps be a little bit better because they’ve got some more knowledge and expertise that we’ve been able to bring to the table."
• "It’s beneficial to us too: we learn more about a project earlier, we can help, we can guide, we can make suggestions, we can optimise, with the whole idea being that any project is the most sustainable one possible, the lowest cost possible and a project that’s most aligned with what a city or region is trying to do in its own community.“
• "For us that is the key thing now that the Games are here to adopt to a city or a region, it’s not the other way round, and I think in past processes, it was a little bit like we opened a bidding process for a given year and we said 'here’s what we need you to tell us, you figure it out and if you get the Games go away and do it'.
• "Now what we’re saying is what are your concerns, what are the challenges in your region and in your communities, what are your long-term plans for the next 10 or 20 years or even longer, and how would hosting a Games fit into this long-term planning?
• "The Games shouldn’t be the starting point for that, it should be how the Games can help what a city or a region or a community is trying to do for itself anyway, so there’s no one-size-fits all solution there.”
• One of the criticisms levelled at the new bidding process is a lack of transparency, while for Brisbane 2032 there were allegations of a conflict of interest concerning Australian Olympic Committee President and IOC vice-president John Coates, who helped to oversee the change to the process.
• IOC President Thomas Bach insisted that Coates had no input in Brisbane being recommended for exclusive negotiations, and claimed that it was a "very transparent procedure".
• Barrett also defended the new process, and argued confidential discussions should not be mistaken for a lack of transparency.
• "I would say transparency is really important for us, and I think it's a difference for us between transparency and enabling some conversations to be confidential if they want them to be," Barrett said.
• "I think on transparency, all of the documents related to the new approach are on our website for anybody to see.“
• "Every document we've put on the website, the questionnaires, the reports, all the framework, anything to do with the new process is there.“
• "The new approach, the various stages to it, how it happens, why it happens, who does what, everything is there, and I think that's very transparent.“
• "I think this ability for a city or a region or a NOC to have a confidential discussion to road test some ideas is absolutely natural and normal, and not every meeting we would ever have would be open to the public anyway.“
• "You have a workshop, you have a meeting, those are the running of the business, but I think that's why I would make the difference.“
• "We are everyday trying to communicate this more, and I think when you do something new it takes time to get that out and get that across, especially when you've perhaps been in a situation and a process that's been largely the same for many decades and people are used to that.“
• "A lot of it happened during the pandemic, where everybody was locked down and we were not getting together so much.“
• "We were changing the way we did business to do a lot more virtually, which we found was a different way of doing things."
• It was revealed on the final day of the 139^th IOC Session in Lausanne that the Executive Board is hopeful of entering a targeted dialogue with a candidate for the 2030 Winter Olympics in December with a view to awarding hosting rights for the Games at the Session in Mumbai next May.
• Sapporo has long been viewed as a frontrunner for 2030, but is facing stiff competition from Salt Lake City, Vancouver, and a joint Pyrenees-Barcelona proposal.

[FYI]

1 hour ago, Guilga said:

If a certain Saramarch has a desire to make things their way, something that no other bid have as a advantage, the fight might stop before it even starts.

The only way I can see this happening, is if the IOC is also ready to award 2034 simultaneously. It's no secret that's the cycle the USOC is most interested in anyway, so then Samaranch Jr. getting his way won't be seen as much of an issue.

However, just awarding 2030 that way, would present a problem. And I don't think that the USOC (who have been quite invested in this for several years now [afterall, that was suppose to be one of Brisbane's positives], or even the JOC, would go away that quietly. Look at the mild stir the DOSB, India & Qatar made over 2032. It would be louder this time around.

But that's getting a bit ahead of things here, since again, the real test comes in a couple of months, when the people of Barcelona will either say yay or nay to a 2030 bid. And if they say nay, that's something that even the almighty Samaranch Jr. can't unravel.  

[Quaker2001]

2 hours ago, Guilga said:

If a certain Saramarch has a desire to make things their way, something that no other bid have as a advantage, the fight might stop before it even starts.

But, in a ideal world, Barcelona would be out of the running already. Sapporo, Salt Lake and Vancouver involvement really make that disjointed bid a underdog. But again, this is the New Norm ultimate test: if someone gets so fast tracked that it sounds suspicious, the world at large might see this New Norm as nothing but the Executive Board doing as it pleases. If we have a actual race, maybe the public won't care as much that transparency went out of the window.

1 Samaranch is not like the other.  This isn't 1986 when the original JAS rigged the game so that Barcelona would get picked.  That worked once with what was a very appealing bid.  This time, not so much

[Quaker2001]

5 hours ago, Guilga said:

If a certain Saramarch has a desire to make things their way, something that no other bid have as a advantage, the fight might stop before it even starts.

But, in a ideal world, Barcelona would be out of the running already. Sapporo, Salt Lake and Vancouver involvement really make that disjointed bid a underdog. But again, this is the New Norm ultimate test: if someone gets so fast tracked that it sounds suspicious, the world at large might see this New Norm as nothing but the Executive Board doing as it pleases. If we have a actual race, maybe the public won't care as much that transparency went out of the window.

Welp, looks like we're getting close.. Spain’s 2030 Winter Olympics joint bid in peril as sides fail to reach agreement

[FYI]

While the similarity of Barcelona having an IOC VP in the EB, like Brisbane did, that's where the similarities end, though. Since not even JAS JR. can fix this mess that the Pyrenees 2030 bid is. And that's even before we get to the July referendum. The NOlympics crowd is going to have a field day with this now. 

In Brisbane's case, the gov't support from all levels, was/is so cohesive, which is why the their bid was easily able to be "fast-tracked".  That's not the case here with Barcelona whatsoever. So any idea of Jas Jr. doing a Brisbane here, has clearly been dealt a serious blow with this latest development.

[Guilga]

11 hours ago, Quaker2001 said:

Welp, looks like we're getting close.. Spain’s 2030 Winter Olympics joint bid in peril as sides fail to reach agreement

Aaaaand, it's gone. This thing will collapse before the referendum then! Aragon and Catalonia bitter feud is destroying this bid in a rapid pace.