Munich 203? - How can it work out?

[munichfan]

DOSB president Weikert has hinted at another German bid in the 30'ies - and as this link (unfortunately it's in German) states, preliminary talks have already taken place. As I don't see us going for the nazi centennial and Russia seems to be confident to land the 36 summer games, anyway, a Munich bid for 2034 or 2038 seems like the obvious choice.

Germany has seen an array of failed bid since the 1980'ies. Berchtesgaden 1992, Berlin 2000, Leipzig 2012, Munich 2018 and 2022, Hamburg 2024, Rhine-Ruhr 2032. The 2022 and 2024 did not survive their respective referendums, so ensuring public support is absolute key. I bet a successful European Championships in August will help whetting the Bavarians' appetite for multi-sport events. But apart from that?

How can a Munich bid work out?

 

@Olympian2004@StefanMUC, now off you go.

[StefanMUC]

Thanks for opening this thread!

So where to start...maybe with the several elephants in the room:

The completely destroyed IOC reputation in Germany, not least thanks to Fencing 1976. As far as I understand the new German government, it is committed to supporting any bid as long as it has public support. Now, as long as TB is in charge, there won't be any chance in hell that a referendum will be successful, no matter where in Germany.

Then, climate change is progressing fast. In these last two weeks, we hardly saw any snow here in the city - yes, not unlike Sochi, Vancouver or Beijing, but unusual for Munich this time of the year. So the time window to hold Winter Olympics this side of the Alps is closing fast.

And finally, does DOSB want Summer Olympics more as they are more prestigious and there are several potential candidates within Germany (Rhine-Ruhr has its charm, so has Hamburg - and both have their specific issues but could come without as much historic baggage as a Berlin 2036 bid would have - I don't see Russia as so certain for the moment, by the way), or does DOSB try for the relatively low hanging fruit Winter Olympics where there's far less international competition? In that case, Munich is the only realistic choice (unless you want to have events spread across all over central Germany plus Alpine events in Garmisch).

Now, let's assume all those elephants have been removed and Munich gets the nod to bid again for Winter Olympics. How would that look like?

I think the 2022 concept study (https://web.archive.org/web/20131017131313/http://www.muenchen.de/rathaus/dms/Home/Stadtinfos/Olympia2022/Konzeptstudie-Muenchen-2022/Konzeptstudie.pdf - in German, hope it still works) was actually very good. The only thing I would really question about it was why the perfectly suitable speed oval in Inzell would be turned into a media centre and a temporary venue in Munich would be built. Is there really a need for a second big media centre, and if yes, can't that be built temporarily in the region? Also, I'm not sure the proposed location of the village at the south of the Olympiapark where now the army area is would still be available or if there are other plans for it. Maybe there's potential to use the Stadtwerke (municipal utilities) area to the west of the park, probably to be linked with a tunnel underneath the main road there, but not sure if that would be a realistic option. Other than that, nothing nearby if destroying the university's sports facilities in the north western part of the park is not an option. Munich is in desperate need of housing though, so if a smart and sustainable village can be built that later on serves to ease the tense market here, this could be a major selling point to the population. And in other cities, the village wasn't always directly next to the venues either, so maybe there's a bit of flexibility.

In order not to spread things out too much (you mentioned Oberstdorf in the other thread), I would keep the Nordic events with Biathlon in Ruhpolding - maybe even ski jumping as they have already hills there which have seen world cups, including in NoCo.

Since the study, Big Air and Ski Mountaineering have been added. For Big Air, the Olympiastadion or the Allianz Arena seem a logical choice, the latter especially if Aerials would still remain in the Olympiastadion, both can't fit in plus space for ceremonies I guess. FC Bayern would probably not be too thrilled to give up on their home ground for several weeks though. The Olympiaberg as another location is quite critical from an environmental point of view (lots of discussion about using it for the mountain bike races at the Euro Champs in August) but I guess Halfpipe could stay there or also be moved to Garmisch (same goes for Aerials really if one of the big stadia is not available). As for Ski Mountaineering, I have absolutely no idea what kind of topographical requirements there are but I assume Garmisch would also be the logical fit for that, should it remain on the programme.

As you wrote above, the European Championships in August will be crucial if there is ever going to be another Olympic bid to be pursued. It would be great if it eventually happened and I could bike to the Olympics within 30 minutes from home. Or maybe rather take the bus in February.

 

[iceman530]

I would be absolutely ecstatic........ecstatic with a Munich winter games.  I hope some ground work can be laid to make a 2038 push.  

[StefanMUC]

Forgot one thing: who should head such a bid?

Obviously, Felix Neureuther would be one poster boy of a campaign. He’s very popular, not least by heritage through his mum “Gold-Rosi” Mittermaier (1976, but Alpine Skiing, not Fencing), and he’s smart and a critical thinker as could be seen in a pre-Olympic documentary on primetime TV in which he tore apart the IOC’s stance on human rights.

And then there’s someone who is completely out of the sports bubble nowadays, amazingly enough as she was basically Germany’s biggest female athlete of the 90s next to Steffi Graf: Katja Seizinger (now married Weber). She retired a year after Nagano due to injuries and is now chairwoman of the board of a steel mill. Probably has the necessary business skills, so could be a good choice.

I’d rather not have another bid with Bavarian cliché figures such as Markus Wasmeier or Georg Hackl been thrown at the IOC, and Katarina Witt had her chance for 2018.

[Olympian2004]

Thanks for starting the topic, @munichfan. And thanks for the insights, @StefanMUC! You are of course much better informed than me about the current local issues and where to put the different venues. My years of visiting Munich on a regular basis when I still had my boyfriend there sadly belong to the past. But I will try to give some spritual support for a Munich bid, hoping that it will turn from fantasy to reality.

I like your suggestion, Stefan, to make Felix Neureuther the head of the bid. While Katarina Witt probably has better international name recognition, Felix would be a symbol for a new start and also a new generation of Olympians having a say in where the next few editions of the Games go.

While Munich and Bavaria have plenty of suitable locations for venues and also many existing ones in place already, I asked myself where to put a new Olympic Village. It is obvious that they can't and wouldn't want to re-use the 1972 Olympic Village for all the obvious reasons, but does Munich still have enough space for building a village somewhat in the middle of the city or would they have to resort to the outskirts of Munich? I think, after witnessing first-hand how rare affordable apartments are in super-expensive Munich, building a new Olympic Village would be a pretty good selling factor for a new Munich bid.

But then again, there is the strong public opposition in a city that also didn't want to build a third runway for (pre-COVID) congested Munich Airport... So we will see how that goes. They should do without a referendum this time around, IMO.

[rubio]

Regarding the remarks about the Inzell ice skating stadium; isn't true that the ISU would object to skating sports being held in different cities? I remember that this was in issue in Sion's 2006 bid, where figure skating and short track were planned in Sion and speed skating in Martigny.

[munichfan]

Let me add some of my thoughts as well.

Venues: Most of the venue plan will probably be similar to what we saw on offer for 2018 and 2022. Figure skating and short track at the Olympiahalle, Curling at the Olympiaschwimmzentrum. The 10,000 seater SAP garden that's currently under construction is perfectly sized for ice hockey I. That leaves a second ice hockey venue. As stated on the other thread, there's some talks on a huge privately financed arena going on. Otherwise, a refurbished Olympia-Eissportzentrum or a temporary option at the expo centre might be options (not sure, if halls at the latter are tall enough to provide enough space for some 6,000 seats). Garmisch for alpine skiing and the Königssee sliding tracks are shoe-ins, too. I'd say keep the halfpipe in the Olympic park - the imagery with the Zeltdach in the background will be breathtaking.

As I've stated in the Closing Ceremony Live Chat thread, in my opinion Oberstdorf is the most attractive choice for the nordic sports. Both the ski jumps and the cross-country skiing facilities have just been brought to state-of-the-art standard for the World Championships last year and see World Cup events every year. I know, the 2-hour drive to Munich is somewhat of an issue (probably even more during games time, I've been to the area last weekend and traffic was somewhat of a mess even with just the regular skiing tourists), but it would be doable. Investing a chunk of money into facilities in Garmisch or Ruhpolding that will only be used once does seem like an unnecessary expense to me.

So does building an oval. One option that I've been daydreaming about ever since the IOC proposed Arena Civica for Speed Skating in 2026: the surface of the Olympic stadium should be just large enough to hold a speed skating rink. Of course, ceremonies would have to be conducted in a way that allows for REALLY fast transformation of the stadium to sports mode. And given the current state of the sport in Germany, it might be hard to get sell-out crowds, but the idea of dozens of thousands of fans in there gives me goosebumps. Otherwise, as Stefan has already stated, Inzell's oval is top notch and should do just fine. And a temporary media centre should be way cheaper than an oval, anyway.

As for the inclusion of the Allianz Arena - for sure, Bundesliga matches could be planned in a way to have a few away games in a row in January/February, so Bayern wouldn't have to switch to another venue. Not having to deal with the Olympics and Bayern home games at the same time will be a little bit of an ease in the logistics department, too.

Village: I haven't heard anything that would contradict the proposed 2018 village wouldn't be available for 2034. The Bundeswehr won't be able to hold onto this area forever, anyway, given Munich's housing shortage and the good location with the Olympic Park to one side and direct tram access to the other. And as there have not been any plans for this area that I know of, they have been probably keeping this in case of another attempt ever since the 2018 bid.

Including Oberstdorf could make some villages in the mountains redundant, given that Oberstdorf would practically host a Nordic skiing world championships and Garmisch an Alpine world championship plus some snowboarders and ski freestylers (otherwise I bet Garmisch could support housing in the scale of a small village, as well).

Bid Leadership: I'm on team Felix Neureuther here. He's not only popular, but he can bring a ton of credibility into this bid. He's also been heavily engaged in creating fitness programs for school kids, so he could bring that sort of "inspire a generation"-vibe to the bid. And after all, this bid will be a way harder sell on the public than it will on the IOC, so international name recognition really shouldn't be an issue here.

Public support: German politics are on board, what we hear from DOSB seems promising, and I see this approach as very appealing to Lausanne. Really the most important issue at play is public support. As stated on the other boards, given the 2022 and '24 precedents, this bid will probably have to survive a referendum (though I really think it shouldn't need to...). Looking at how the 2022 vote turned out, it seems of utmost importance to combine the poll with other elections to get better turnout and not get the NIMBYs only to the polls. Bavaria will hold regional elections in 2023 and local ones in 2024 and the next federal elections are due in 2025. So there's plenty of options to choose from.

 

Post scriptum: As of 2021, plans for a full-scale renovation of the Olympic stadium still seemed on track (source).

[munichfan]

4 minutes ago, rubio said:

Regarding the remarks about the Inzell ice skating stadium; isn't true that the ISU would object to skating sports being held in different cities? I remember that this was in issue in Sion's 2006 bid, where figure skating and short track were planned in Sion and speed skating in Martigny.

They seem to be ok with Baselga di Pinè for 2026 and Obihiro for the current Sapporo attempt.

[rubio]

Just now, munichfan said:

They seem to be ok with Baselga di Pinè for 2026 and Obihiro for the current Sapporo attempt.

Ah indeed! Well yeah, Inzell would make perfect sense for a future Munich bid.

 

[StefanMUC]

Great read, though one small correction: Bavarian local elections are in a 6 year interval, so spring 2026 again. While combining a referendum with them might be able to surf on a (positive?) Milan-Cortina impression, it is probably too late for a 2034 bid to get really going. Also, local elections can tend to bring very locally specific results (cue landowners in Garmisch) as they often have lower turnout too. 
 

A referendum is pretty inevitable, combining it with the Bavarian elections 2023 might be the best hope of an early enough positive outcome, though Bach will still be in charge then. By autumn 2025 federals, he is hopefully gone, but time for 2034 might be scarce.

[munichfan]

2 minutes ago, StefanMUC said:

Great read, though one small correction: Bavarian local elections are in a 6 year interval, so spring 2026 again. While combining a referendum with them might be able to surf on a (positive?) Milan-Cortina impression, it is probably too late for a 2034 bid to get really going. Also, local elections can tend to bring very locally specific results (cue landowners in Garmisch) as they often have lower turnout too.

Oh, yes, now I remember. A visit to my best friend in Würzburg around election time was the last thing I did before Covid restrictions started to really hit off. Don't know why I thought the last ones were in 2018.

5 minutes ago, StefanMUC said:

A referendum is pretty inevitable, combining it with the Bavarian elections 2023 might be the best hope of an early enough positive outcome, though Bach will still be in charge then. By autumn 2025 federals, he is hopefully gone, but time for 2034 might be scarce.

Even if he leaves, there will be lots of bad publicity around the IOC election in summer of 2025, so 2023 might really be the best bet, after all. Most importantly, the Greens need to be on board (all other major parties are hugely pro-Olympics anyway, political support has never been the big issue here). Offer people a low-cost and low-impact games (that's where Oberstdorf comes in again) and have Felix Neureuther lead a well-organized campaign and this might work out rather pleasantly.

[StefanMUC]

IIRC, Claudia Roth was supportive of the previous bids. With her in a government position now, (majority of) Greens might be easier to get on the pro side, especially with a smart concept for sustainability & housing and stressing that Olympics are still basically a good idea that needs a relaunch away from totalitarian regimes.

[munichfan]

By the way, I've had a little fun aligning the dimensions of a speed skating rink (provided by McSmit on Wikimedia) to the stadium floor as closely as possible on Google Earth. It sure looks like a tight squeeze, but it might be possible. The setup would still provide adequate room for ceremony stuff (flag poles, stages for the speeches...) outside of the skating oval, so all you'd have to do to switch from ceremony to sports mode would be to cover/uncover the ice surface with a white surface for projections.

[StefanMUC]

40 minutes ago, munichfan said:

By the way, I've had a little fun aligning the dimensions of a speed skating rink (provided by McSmit on Wikimedia) to the stadium floor as closely as possible on Google Earth. It sure looks like a tight squeeze, but it might be possible. The setup would still provide adequate room for ceremony stuff (flag poles, stages for the speeches...) outside of the skating oval, so all you'd have to do to switch from ceremony to sports mode would be to cover/uncover the ice surface with a white surface for projections.

Wow, impressive. Silly me had always assumed that a speed skating rink of 400m would just be identical to an athletics track!

Still think Inzell would be the logic option, plus this here would mean Aerials need to go elsewhere. As Grünwalder Stadion gets renovated, let's give 1860 also a slice of the cake ;-)

As for Oberstdorf...people are already criticising Milan-Cortina for its very spread out plan. Including Oberstdorf, as much as I like the place and it sure is top standard for Nordic, would mean another widely spread plan. Ruhpolding has hosted World Cups in ski jumping and NoCo not too long in the past, so I assume it would not be too much of an investment, and there's Biathlon there anyway. Or if you don't want to invest in a Ruhpolding hill, there's of course Garmisch as well with a properly rebuilt hill.

[munichfan]

6 minutes ago, StefanMUC said:

As for Oberstdorf...people are already criticising Milan-Cortina for its very spread out plan. Including Oberstdorf, as much as I like the place and it sure is top standard for Nordic, would mean another widely spread plan. Ruhpolding has hosted World Cups in ski jumping and NoCo not too long in the past, so I assume it would not be too much of an investment, and there's Biathlon there anyway. Or if you don't want to invest in a Ruhpolding hill, there's of course Garmisch as well with a properly rebuilt hill.

The difference is, with Oberstdorf involved you could still stay in Munich and head one way to the ski jumping on Monday and then head the other way for Biathlon on Tuesday. Unlike 2026, every venue would still be within ok distances from the games hub. It's far from perfect in terms of games experience, but it's manageable.

Garmisch seems to me like the most sensitive of the bunch in terms of opposition. And splitting up the Nordic Combined doesn't make much sense to me. So Ruhpolding would be the only other sensible option here (and a way better one than the Schwaiganger plans they had for 2018).

In the end, there's no more than a few thousand spectators and journalists who could profit from shorter travel distances and a better games experience. Meanwhile, there are two million people living in the local authority districts that will need to go to the polls and decide if these games can happen at all. And cutting down hundreds of trees for a one-off two-week party (make it two of those when you count in the Paralympics) when you have a most suitable option existing down the road just seems like unnecessarily fueling the NOlympics campaign. Even more so in a country like Germany where people chain themselves to trees to stop road construction and Greenpeace activists get high profile government jobs.

[Olympian2004]

Those are good reasons for Oberstdorf, @munichfan. I think it is unavoidable to have a spread-out Games plan if you want to stage sustainable and (relatively) eco-friendly Games. Concentrating the skiing, sledding and speed skating events in only a few locations in or near the mountains might lead to a logistical nightmare for the respective small towns and thus to increased public opposition there. I think it is a charming idea to let several locations do what they do best and have plenty of experience in: Oberstdorf for the nordic events, Garmisch-Partenkirchen for the alpine events, Ruhpolding for biathlon, Königsee for bobsleigh, luge and skeleton and Inzell for speed skating. Sort of a "best of German winter sports host tradition", albeit without the East German venues. And there is still the option to leave Inzell out of the bid and construct at least a temporary speed skating rink in Munich.

If that leads to increased travel times for journalists, officials and the possibly relatively few spectators who want to do a lot of "event hopping" during the Games, so be it. Regarding the media, ARD's and ZDF's approach to do most of the live reporting for Beijing from Germany showed that it is not necessary to have large numbers of journalists at each specific venue anyway. And if Thomas Bach's successor as IOC president has to travel farther distances just in order to photo-bomb unassuming athletes in their moment of glory, I will suffer that consequence gladly.

[StefanMUC]

Maybe that glorious New Norm Targeted/Continuous Dialogue that one poster is feverishly praising will be the opportunity to discuss between the bid and the IOC whether to include Oberstdorf or not.

[munichfan]

2 hours ago, Olympian2004 said:

Regarding the media, ARD's and ZDF's approach to do most of the live reporting for Beijing from Germany showed that it is not necessary to have large numbers of journalists at each specific venue anyway.

I always find it irritating how the cost of hosting is under such scrutiny in this country. Meanwhile, transferring what is presumably hundreds of millions of euros of basically taxpayers' money (I for a part did not choose to pay for these programs) to Lausanne every two years for TV rights doesn't seem to sincerely bother anyone.

1 hour ago, StefanMUC said:

Maybe that glorious New Norm Targeted/Continuous Dialogue that one poster is feverishly praising will be the opportunity to discuss between the bid and the IOC whether to include Oberstdorf or not.

The way Weikert said "we have had many talks here" makes me wonder how far this already is behind closed doors. Surely DOSB wouldn't involve the IOC if there hadn't been comprehensive discussion with the responsible ministry, the big sports federations and the potential hosts before?

 

[StefanMUC]

7 minutes ago, munichfan said:

I always find it irritating how the cost of hosting is under such scrutiny in this country. Meanwhile, transferring what is presumably hundreds of millions of euros of basically taxpayers' money (I for a part did not choose to pay for these programs) to Lausanne every two years for TV rights doesn't seem to sincerely bother anyone.

The way Weikert said "we have had many talks here" makes me wonder how far this already is behind closed doors. Surely DOSB wouldn't involve the IOC if there hadn't been comprehensive discussion with the responsible ministry, the big sports federations and the potential hosts before?

 

Especially when big football events get far less scrutiny and even more money (also regularly like police on duty for Bundesliga matches).

As for Weikert, he‘s probably far better connected than the previous clown. I‘m sure behind closed doors, a lot is ready, just waiting for a good moment to go public. Now certainly isn‘t the moment.

If Sapporo says yes to 2030 (by no means sure IMHO), and SLC is not needed for that as saviour but very keen on 2034, that would probably leave 2038 - which I personally find almost too late given climate change. And it would probably have to fight much more domestically with another summer bid (2036 not considered) for the early 40s.

2022 would have been perfect timing, but Fencing 1976 had other plans.

[StefanMUC]

I should add: if Sapporo says no and SLC/USOC would prefer a longer gap to LA still, 2030 could suddenly be up for grabs again. Even if JAS jr would probably do anything then to make Barcelona happen.

[munichfan]

38 minutes ago, StefanMUC said:

2022 would have been perfect timing, but Fencing 1976 had other plans.

Given how Germany is weeks to months behind our European neighbours in terms of Omicron and opening up (and we'll probably be the only country on earth forcing these bloody FFP2s on people in spring and summer still), I'm rather glad this one was a pass.

19 minutes ago, StefanMUC said:

I should add: if Sapporo says no and SLC/USOC would prefer a longer gap to LA still, 2030 could suddenly be up for grabs again. Even if JAS jr would probably do anything then to make Barcelona happen.

My feeling is that if Sapporo turns away 2030, Salt Lake will go into targeted dialogue in a matter of days. But who knows what's happening in Lausanne these days, anyway? The 2030 option would probably require some pushing by Mr. Fencing 1976, though. And we all know he hasn't exactly been the biggest patriot.

[Olympian2004]

2 hours ago, munichfan said:

Given how Germany is weeks to months behind our European neighbours in terms of Omicron and opening up (and we'll probably be the only country on earth forcing these bloody FFP2s on people in spring and summer still), I'm rather glad this one was a pass.

Even under the current rules, we would have seen far more relaxed Games with more spectators this month in Munich than we did in "zero Covid" Beijing during the past two weeks or in "Oops, we started our vaccinations too late" Tokyo last summer.

2 hours ago, munichfan said:

My feeling is that if Sapporo turns away 2030, Salt Lake will go into targeted dialogue in a matter of days. But who knows what's happening in Lausanne these days, anyway? The 2030 option would probably require some pushing by Mr. Fencing 1976, though. And we all know he hasn't exactly been the biggest patriot.

Sorry if I ask a stupid question (I didn't really follow the race for 2030 so far), but doesn't stand Vancouver a good chance for 2030 so that neither Sapporo nor Salt Lake should be needed?

[munichfan]

1 hour ago, Olympian2004 said:

Sorry if I ask a stupid question (I didn't really follow the race for 2030 so far), but doesn't stand Vancouver a good chance for 2030 so that neither Sapporo nor Salt Lake should be needed?

USOPC and Salt Lake have been in talks with the IOC for years. Utah provides broad public and institutional suppert and an exceptional level of preparedness. I remember reports from last autumn that they were already taking venues and accomodation under preliminary contracts. It's now at a stage where I doubt Bach can just smash the door at their faces so easily. Plus, Vancouver is still on shaky ground, thanks mainly to mediocre poll results.

[Olympian2004]

Thanks for the heads-up! I didn't expect Salt Lake City to be in such a strong position, bearing in mind that the LA Games will take place only two years earlier. But I guess that geopolitics play no big role in the IOC anymore, after three Asian Olympic Games in a row.

Back to Munich: I'm really curious how well the spread out concept of Milan and Cortina 2026 will play out. If the IOC is okay with it also in hindsight, this would of course open the door real wide for future (especially) winter bids like Munich who can't provide a compact venue concept. And if Milan/Cortina's sledding events have to take place in another country, this might open the door even more.

[stryker]

Would it be possible for a future Munich bid to not use Garmisch at all given it seems that's where a lot of the NoOlympics crowd seeks to be? Also could Allianz Arena be fitted with a temporary roof to host ice events?