The Next IOC President

[Bear]

2 minutes ago, Sir Rols said:

On Saudi Arabia, who will host the 2034 World Cup, the 62-year-old, added, "We should encourage everybody to apply. In the case of Saudi Arabia, their commitment and dedication to sport is fantastic, and I remember years ago when they promoted the idea of actually including snow-based events. People said 'that can't be true', 'where do you find snow in Saudi Arabia?', but they actually do have snow and have mountains reaching 2,600 metres and have invested in building up ski resorts. "So, everything is possible, and if Saudi Arabia applies, we should take that very seriously."

plot twist he'll strip 2034 from Salt Lake City with the USADA / WADA situation as a pretext to give it to Saudia Arabia instead

[Bear]

2 minutes ago, Sir Rols said:

By the way, tomorrow’s the day the candidates give their live auditions. Not that we’ll get to see it.

Hopefully there’ll be some leaks and tidbits coming out of it (apart from the bland press release or statement the IOC itself will issue).

Looks like it will be live:

 

[Bear]

There's this also that is set for 2 hours prior to the IOC Session

[Sir Rols]

1 minute ago, Bear said:

Looks like it will be live:

 

Interesting. But aren’t the actual presentations - let’s face it, the only bits we’d be interested in - supposed to be in camera?

[Bear]

2 minutes ago, Sir Rols said:

Interesting. But aren’t the actual presentations - let’s face it, the only bits we’d be interested in - supposed to be in camera?

ah you might be right, I'm reading the regulations posted last month and it does say that.

[Sir Rols]

Interesting to see how the mainstream media cover the election…

No transparency please, we’re the IOC: Coe makes his pitch for world sport’s top job

“…an election so secretive and strange it would make a Vatican cardinal wince”. Ouch 

Edited January 29 by Sir Rols

[cfm Jeremie]

What will be broadcasted live is the IOC Session dedicated to…. YOG 2028 host election.

[baron-pierreIV]

Wonder when Frump and Musk will open their beaks and yap about this matter they have no business chiming in!! 

[krow]

BTW i'm throwing my hat into the ring and have started writing a candidate file for why i should be ioc prez. 

it's really detailed and honestly less insane than watanabe's. 

i'm just not that crazy at my core!

[Sir Rols]

For anyone so inclined, here’s the post-presentations media Q&As

 

Edited January 30 by Sir Rols

[Sir Rols]

If you want to make a drinking game of it, you can fast forward to 55:00 and down a shot each time Kirsty glowingly mentions Bach

[Sir Rols]

I’ve watched them all now (well, I fast forwarded through Eliasch, I don’t give him much of a chnce). My impressions…

* Samaranch and Coe were probably the slickest. And I see in news reports it’s those two who seemed to be considered the front runners. Actually, I’m warming a bit to Samaranch - he was the most direct and seemingly open in a lot of his answers. He didn’t waffle as much into candidate-speak.

* I know I give Kirsty a hard time, but she comported herself well enough. Was peppered with questions about Bach and women in sport. I still don’t see my evidence of leader qualities, though.

* Watanabe’s funny. As wel as his 24-hour worldwide Olympics idea, he ups the ante with a plan to turn the IIOC into the World Sports Organisation, a mega global IF that will control all sports! You sure dream big, Mori!

* The questions were mostly tame. The guy from Xinhua with his “what’s the biggest challenge for the IOC” for each candidate. Duncan Mackay and the guys from The Times and the New York Times were the most probing. I think it as the NYT guy who tried to put Samaranch on the spot, asking: “You’re talking about taking power away from the EB and giving it back t the members. Why didn’t you d something about it when you were on the EB?”. Glad they also probed a fair bit about lack of transparency and why was the whole candidate process so restrictive and secretive.

Edited January 31 by Sir Rols

[krow]

after reading all the candidacy docs i decided i had no choice but to run for IOC president myself, seeing how i have so much to offer. 

i thought i would have to make up a bunch of stuff, but the actual docs were so batshit insane i didn't really. a lot of the proposals are literally lifted from ideas the candidates thought were good enough to suggest. this org is so corrupt, i don't even think it's worth saving.

in fact, i legitimately think IOC members would vote for a candidate who read this doc word-for-word in the in-camera presentations. it's a secret ballot!

to my mind, this is what all the candidates are actually saying if you read between the lines even slightly and i don't want to live on this planet anymore. the IOC is ruining my life!!!

KROW FOR PRESIDENT

[Sir Rols]

Finally, in this post-satire world, a pitch that makes sense!

[krow]

well i am pitching myself as the consensus candidate and the consensus is we should all use corruption to get richer. 

[baron-pierreIV]

OK, what are the betting odds for this race?  Or isn't it too unimportant for the bookies to care about?  

Frankly, I don't like Seb Coe.  I'd rather go with Samaranch or L'Appartient or even the Jordanian guy.  

[sebastien1214]

The voting method seems to me to make predictions complicated: you would have to have a very good idea of the power struggles and power relations within the IOC itself to risk making a good prediction, which is to say that few people even here have this knowledge I think.

[AustralianFan]

37 minutes ago, baron-pierreIV said:

OK, what are the betting odds for this race?  Or isn't it too unimportant for the bookies to care about?  
 

Yes I was wonderng about the betting odds too and have had a look around but cannot find a betting agency with this contest on the books.

[AustralianFan]

32 minutes ago, sebastien1214 said:

The voting method seems to me to make predictions complicated: you would have to have a very good idea of the power struggles and power relations within the IOC itself to risk making a good prediction, which is to say that few people even here have this knowledge I think.

Yes for sure.  It’s an intriguing contest and outside of our own favourites, it’s hard to gauge how the membership will vote in 4 weeks time.

[krow]

i mean, if i don't win i will be seriously pissed because i've already given away like three million in money laundered monaco casino chips (i have a thing going with the serbian mob), so i'm really going to need to see some ROI here. you don't even want to know the tap dance i had to do for the arabs, but part of it involves repealing bigamy laws in switzerland, so wish me luck on that one. 

[AustralianFan]

1 hour ago, baron-pierreIV said:

OK, what are the betting odds for this race?  Or isn't it too unimportant for the bookies to care about?  
 

 

22 minutes ago, AustralianFan said:

Yes I was wonderng about the betting odds too and have had a look around but cannot find a betting agency with this contest on the books.

I’ve had another search and found this on gambling911.com:

Sebastian Coe                           3/2

Juan Antonio Samaranch Jr.       4/1

David Lappartient                     5/1

Kirsty Coventry                         6/1

Morinari Watanabe                   6/1

Prince Feisal Al Hussein             6/1

Johan Eliasch                            8/1

 

Sports Business Journal talks of:

“Three favorites emerge to become next IOC president”

• Sebastian Coe
• Kirsty Coventry
• Juan Antonio Samaranch Jr.

[Sir Rols]

2 hours ago, sebastien1214 said:

The voting method seems to me to make predictions complicated: you would have to have a very good idea of the power struggles and power relations within the IOC itself to risk making a good prediction, which is to say that few people even here have this knowledge I think.

It’s the closest we get now to the old time host city votes. And in most cases, forecasts in the Olympic media and betting markets (and here) were pretty close. The biggest surprise I remember was 2016 - not that Rio won (it was favourite and I actually won good money on that), but that Chicago was eliminated in the first round. The Olympic media have their sources inside the IOC and have a good idea of how the politics stacks up.

As to here? Well, some of us follow the Olympic media closely. I’m seeing consistent mention that this is seen as a Coe versus Samaranch race. But of course many of us also project their personal biases and preferences in too.

Actually, speaking of the vote, does anyone know if it’s going to be conducted under old IOC rules - first to 50 per cent plus, and rounds with the lowest scorers eliminated until that majority is reached?

[Bear]

1 hour ago, Sir Rols said:

Actually, speaking of the vote, does anyone know if it’s going to be conducted under old IOC rules - first to 50 per cent plus, and rounds with the lowest scorers eliminated until that majority is reached?

Yes

"In accordance with Rule 18.3 OC, the quorum required for the IOC Session is half the total membership of the IOC with voting rights plus one."

"If no candidate obtains the absolute majority of votes in a round of voting, there will be other rounds of voting until a candidate obtains the absolute majority of the votes. The candidate obtaining the fewest votes in each of the rounds of voting will be eliminated and will not participate in the following round of voting."

"If the same number of votes is obtained by two or more candidates during a round of voting in which these candidates should be eliminated, there will be a specific intermediary vote only between the candidates who obtained the same number of votes; the candidate who obtains the fewest votes will be eliminated and will not participate in the following round of voting between the remaining candidates."

"If the same number of votes is obtained by the last two candidates during the final vote, there will be new rounds of voting until one of the last two candidates obtains the greater number of votes. After a second round of voting for which the last two candidates obtain the same number of votes, the IOC President, after consultation with the IOC Executive Board, will use his right to exercise a casting vote."

[Sir Rols]

6 minutes ago, Bear said:

Yes

Thanks.

I just occurred to me, possibly the closest analogy is the Academy Awards. No-one knows how the limited number of individuals on the academy will vote. The reasons for votes are opaque and are influenced by all sorts of idiosyncratic reasons - campaigns, politics, sentimentality, agendas, friendships and enmities etc. But those who observe it closely usually have a pretty good idea of the favourites and the undercurrents of any particular year.

[Sir Rols]

I’m not sure if this is open to the public (I suspect not), but the International Sports Press Association is conducting hour-long Q&As with the candidates on Zoom from next week, starting with Kirst Coventry on Feb w4, and Johan Eliasch on the 25th.

Looking to the future of global sport: Let’s talk to the IOC presidential candidates