Almaty fuel protests cause state of emergency

[AustralianFan]

another little development …..

 

 

[iceman530]

I mean frankly speaking, anyone charged with treason right now in Kazakhstan, it should be a ringing endorsement of their character and probably a decent human being.  

Unfortunately this is literally all that is needed for a political witch hunt if in the end it all turns back to the president.  It will be like the Erdogan Turkey coup on acid.  

[stryker]

I don't have the link readily available but there was an editorial on Insidethegames last week addressing Almaty but more importantly lead up times between the awarding of an Olympics and the actual games themselves. A couple of points were made, one the author argued about the dangers of long lead in times and had hoped as part of the IOC's reforms that the lead up time would be shortened. At one time, the lead time was six years and then it became seven (not sure when that occurred but I think it was the 1992 race). Now I would make the case that a longer lead time beyond the traditional seven year window would actually benefit a host city giving them more time to plan and get things right while minimizing the chances of cost overruns. The problem with that and the author makes a good case is the longer lead times like the one for Brisbane leaves more chances for unforeseen problems to derail preparations. Almaty is a perfect example. That's not to say that Brisbane, Paris, or Los Angele is going to experience events like what's going on in Almaty, but it does increase the chances that an event like a pandemic or more likely an economic turndown could result in a change of government that is suddenly hostile to hosting an Olympics after the games have already been awarded.

Again, I don't foresee that happening with any of the upcoming hosts in 2024, 2026, 2028, or 2032, but it could become a problem somewhere down the line. Of course some would argue and I've seen this point made by a previous poster is that once the host city contract is signed that a city is locked in and they have to deliver. That couldn't be further from the truth. The IOC is a (supposedly) non-profit organization, not a political entity. If host city decided to say no thanks like Denver did, there's little the IOC could do. The most that would happen is they'd fume about it. Of course they could attempt to sue that city in court, but that would be a long drawn out fight that would be very costly in money and public image. Nothing's without risk but I definitely think there's a trade off with a longer lead time. It provides the necessary time for a city to get its ducks in a row so to speak, but it also potentially offers a window for unforseen circumstances to possibly derail an Olympics. It's those circumstances that I think are precisely why the IOC didn't pay much attention to the Rhine-Rhur bid in the 2032 race and passed on Stockholm in the 2026 race. Both bids had public support issues and the IOC does not want a repeat of what happened with Denver.

[Australian Kiwi]

Agree - re: the long lead in time of 11 years. A lot can happen in (over) a decade. 

Australia is stable for 2032 - however looking to 2036 and beyond can the same be said for China, Russia, etc?

[StefanMUC]

8 hours ago, Australian Kiwi said:

however looking to 2036 and beyond can the same be said for China, Russia, etc?

Putin is probably hoping to stay in power until 2036 as the one that stablises Russia, though who knows if he isn't overplaying his cards in the end. And those authoritarian leaders usually have big issues in settling their succession (unless they breed them in the family like in NK, Azerbaijan or apparently also Belarus).

China can go either way too - it's not automatic that the current regime will still be able to control their population so strictly in a decade. In fact, it is really frightening to think what further demonic ways of control they'll come up with by then.

[iceman530]

Count me in the pile of the "concern about awarding too far out" problem.  I think 8-9 years out is the sweet spot.  Anything beyond that is asking for trouble and potential risks of instability and unpredictability.