Almaty fuel protests cause state of emergency

[iceman530]

We do like to reminisce about "what if" with 2022 and Beijing.  Welllllllllllll.....................

Kazakhstan declares state of emergency in Almaty after fuel price protests (msn.com)

Things are starting to get a bit sketchy over in Kazakhstan for the turn of 2022. 

Turns out we probably would have been screwed either way.  

[StefanMUC]

Likely yes, we would.

Main difference here is that people are actually able to protest and (just in) the government takes consequences and steps down instead of crushing them with tanks or putting them in concentration camps.

[iceman530]

30 minutes ago, StefanMUC said:

Likely yes, we would.

Main difference here is that people are actually able to protest and (just in) the government takes consequences and steps down instead of crushing them with tanks or putting them in concentration camps.

Agreed, we are absolutely seeing the visible difference between the two and why Kazakhstan is well............at least better than China from a human rights standpoint.

But from an Olympics standpoint, IOC would have probably been having a panic attack if Almaty was the choice this cycle.  

[StefanMUC]

40 minutes ago, iceman530 said:

Agreed, we are absolutely seeing the visible difference between the two and why Kazakhstan is well............at least better than China from a human rights standpoint.

But from an Olympics standpoint, IOC would have probably been having a panic attack if Almaty was the choice this cycle.  

I‘m not sure they‘re not having panic attacks behind closed doors in Lausanne either way these days, or ever since the field was down to these two („giant turd vs douchebag“ (c) Quaker). 
 

But having to deal with outspoken German critics or non-obediant Norwegian politicians probably triggered more panic in the IOC during 2013/2014, so that‘s why we ended up here.

[iceman530]

and its getting worse, many Kazakh cities are under significant protest duress right now, especially in the west by the Caspian and Almaty.  Only place its supposedly calm right now is Nur Sultan.  

But, the Kazakh president made a "PLEEAAASE DADDY PUTIN HAAAALP!!!" phone call, and authorized Russia and the CSTO basically carte blanche to bring the situation under control.  We talk about little green men in Ukraine again, hell, northern Kazakhstan better keep an eye out these next few nights for little green men.

What a wicked turn of events.........now Im breathing a sigh of relief the olympics are in China?!  What kind of bizzaro world is this! lol

[FYI]

"now im breathing a sigh of relief the Olympics are in China?!"

I'm sure so is the IOC, as ironic as that sounds. And yes, what a bizzaro world indeed, especially when you were so adamant about Kazahkstan hosting. 

[StefanMUC]

Well, we don‘t know how the political situation in Kazakhstan would be if Almaty‘s bid had won. A whole different dynamic could be in place, or at least less obvious suppression.

 

[FYI]

Probably so, like the previous ruler may not have "stepped aside" from power, cause he would've wanted to oversee the Winter Olympics. But the dynamic of a potentially volatile situation would've always been there, as we're seeing now.

Looks like people there are finally fed-up, & still believe that the old-ruler is still in charge behind-the-scenes. And with the eyes of the world on you when you're scheduled with an Olympics, who's to say what kind of 'less obvious suppression' tactics would a regime, of whatever sort, would unleash to try & quench dissent before your big show. Either way, though, it doesn't do the country any favors.

[iceman530]

17 hours ago, FYI said:

"now im breathing a sigh of relief the Olympics are in China?!"

I'm sure so is the IOC, as ironic as that sounds. And yes, what a bizzaro world indeed, especially when you were so adamant about Kazahkstan hosting. 

I didnt read the conditions on the ground correctly, I will concede and take the L. Im not afraid to admit when Im wrong.  Granted, I think a lot of others fell into the same trap as me too.  This seemed like a pretty "out of nowhere" event, but it gives credence to your point of view that stability is first and foremost right now.  It seemed and felt stable in Kazakhstan.  But how quickly this spiraled out of control shows otherwise I guess.  

In the alternate 2022, this would have been a crisis for the IOC.  A massive crisis.  But now, we get stability, and the opportunity to watch China have a more "controlled embarrassment" than be in the midst of regime collapse. 

Furthermore, there has to be no doubt that Putin is going to completely neuter Kazakhstan as a sovereign state.  They are going to be more of a kremlin puppet than ever before, and theyll be able to get a TON of leverage out of this in return for "bringing things under control".  

[FYI]

But others here have tried to point that out, though. And that's just it. It's not that much of an "out of nowhere" event. Obviously, things have been simmering over there for quite some time for people to have just snapped over the mere double price of gas. When the average Kazahk earns only $600 a month, that sudden price jump on gas is enough to send anyone over the edge, particularly in such an oil rich country, & yet people are still struggling. 

And I don't know about a lot of others, at least not here anyway, but there were some others that 'fell into the same trap', as you say. It was always my POV back in the 2022 race, when in the end, it just came down to the "giant douche & turd sandwich" (as Quaker likes to say), that the political stability of Kazahkstan was at the very least, a questionable one, especially when comparing it to China's. But of course, like you, there were a few others that were quite vehement (to say the least) to the contrary. Especially the "anywhere but 'evil' China" camp. 

But this here certainly doesn't bode well for Ukraine either, another locale that you've enjoyed to prop up. I agree, though (as with anyone else who's into the Olympics as many of us here are), that it's nice to have new Olympic hosts when we can, but some of the suggestions that are made are just fanciful at best & just quite ludicrous at worst. As another one of our other favorite posters here have recently said, "expectations vs reality". Can you just imagine if Sarajevo was selected to host the 1992 Winter Olympics instead of the 1984 edition? That's exactly the kind of scenario that should precisely be avoided if all of the red-flags are already there. 

[munichfan]

Guess, this will encourage the IOC to further keep to the ultra-safe options whenever possible for the time being (which they are doing anyway for 2030 and 2034).

Bach just recently talked about how he had wished to award an Olympics to Africa - well imagine how a Cairo 2012 or Addis Abeba 2021 games might have ended.

On 1/5/2022 at 6:50 AM, StefanMUC said:

Main difference here is that people are actually able to protest and (just in) the government takes consequences and steps down instead of crushing them with tanks [...].

Unfortunately, that one did not age well.

[FYI]

11 minutes ago, munichfan said:

Guess, this will encourage the IOC to further keep to the ultra-safe options whenever possible for the time being (which they are doing anyway for 2030 and 2034).

Still hasn't stopped some from daydreaming, though.

[iceman530]

1 hour ago, FYI said:

But others here have tried to point that out, though. And that's just it. It's not that much of an "out of nowhere" event. Obviously, things have been simmering over there for quite some time for people to have just snapped over the mere double price of gas. When the average Kazahk earns only $600 a month, that sudden price jump on gas is enough to send anyone over the edge, particularly in such an oil rich country, & yet people are still struggling. 

And I don't know about a lot of others, at least not here anyway, but there were some others that 'fell into the same trap', as you say. It was always my POV back in the 2022 race, when in the end, it just came down to the "giant douche & turd sandwich" (as Quaker likes to say), that the political stability of Kazahkstan was at the very least, a questionable one, especially when comparing it to China's. But of course, like you, there were a few others that were quite vehement (to say the least) to the contrary. Especially the "anywhere but 'evil' China" camp. 

But this here certainly doesn't bode well for Ukraine either, another locale that you've enjoyed to prop up. I agree, though (as with anyone else who's into the Olympics as many of us here are), that it's nice to have new Olympic hosts when we can, but some of the suggestions that are made are just fanciful at best & just quite ludicrous at worst. As another one of our other favorite posters here have recently said, "expectations vs reality". Can you just imagine if Sarajevo was selected to host the 1992 Winter Olympics instead of the 1984 edition? That's exactly the kind of scenario that should precisely be avoided if all of the red-flags are already there. 

I mean, yeah, this is an all-but-incapacitating blow for Ukraine, who on paper was/is a much riskier prospect than Kazakhstan.  I thought Lviv would be the "line of risk", and Almaty would have been above that line of risk.  If Almaty comes crumbling down, obviously Lviv/Ukraine is hopeless in light of this.  Im already learning plenty in 2022.  Its significantly changed my line of thinking with the way things have played out.  Ive just been so used to taking risks in my life with them paying off more often than not (everything from the stock market to vacation destinations), and I thought "he who dares wins" for quite awhile.  Its been a creed that has paid off, at least for me.  Life without risk is just boring.  Those experiences have shaped my thinking.  I love a risk taker. 

That said, Im an individual, and not an organization/corporation.  And I think therein lies the difference.  When it is bigger than yourself, I guessd you dont have that sort of luxury.  Again, I have learned, and Im being humble about it.  Ill take my lumps here.  And Im looking at the bright side.  While I was freely in the "anywhere but China" camp, there is going to be some good that comes out of this, for multiple reasons.  Less than a month now, and my popcorn is ready for all the bumps and bruises.  It will go forward, but Im sure there will be at least one egg on China's face at the end of it.  Im gonna sit back and enjoy the surprise of where it comes from.  

[FYI]

18 minutes ago, iceman530 said:

Ive just been so used to taking risks in my life with them paying off more often than not (everything from the stock market to vacation destinations), and I thought "he who dares wins" for quite awhile. 

That said, Im an individual, and not an organization/corporation.  And I think therein lies the difference.  When it is bigger than yourself, I guessd you dont have that sort of luxury.  

But even in your case, I’m sure that you analyzed & researched that risk before making your final call on whatever it was you were trying to decide upon, & didn’t just blindly make your decision on a bunch of pretty travel brochures or adorned portfolios.

Regardless of individual or an organization, the due diligence should be the same. That’s just risk-management 101. 

[StefanMUC]

5 hours ago, munichfan said:

Unfortunately, that one did not age well.

Sadly, yes.

I still believe though that China - and indeed its leadership is evil - should never had got this, stability or not.

For 1936, Berlin was a stable option compared to rival Barcelona, or so it seemed at the time of the vote in 1931. Five years later, Germany was still „stable“ and Spain was in civil war. Right decision? Or anything the IOC could have learned from in the years leading up to the 2015 vote?

No, they love to make their beds and bets with autocrats and dictators and that‘s the consequence of it. The 2024-2032 string may not look like it, but it‘s clear Bach & co are still heavily courting Putin and Xi. It‘s all very frustrating, and I really cannot understand why people also on here are even looking forward to what will be sickening propaganda shows in the OC and CC. 

[FYI]

What's sad, is that the IOC didn't have any non-authoritarian options to chose from for 2022, since they were all scared/chased away. It's not like Beijing would've been their first choice in this case. So IDK if comparing a vote from nearly a century ago is the proper equation here. But then again, maybe it was just another choice between a "giant douche & turd sandwich" in 1931 for 1936. And the IOC chose accordingly *at the time*, regardless of what happened several years later.

It's even been mentioned recently, that the way the IOC is selecting some of these bids lately, so far in advance can be very risky, because things can change very rapidly, even in stable democracies. Even in a country such as the United States of America in the 21st century, who's already locked-in for 2028 btw, look at what almost happened here a year ago yesterday. That would've seemed unthinkable here just a few years ago. As Barack said yesterday - "democracy is at greater risk today". And unfortunately, it doesn't look like that danger is going anywhere anytime soon. Especially when you have some of these lawmakers in some of these states making changes to their laws for the sake of "voter integrity".  I actually cringe at the thought of the 2022, & especially the 2024 elections here as to what could be in store. 

That said though, hindsight is always 20/20, & there will always be shoulda, coulda, wouldas because of it. But at the same time, we shouldn't pretend that the alternative for 2022 would've been sort of democratic haven, either, because it isn't.

[FYI]

12 hours ago, StefanMUC said:

It‘s all very frustrating, and I really cannot understand why people also on here are even looking forward to what will be sickening propaganda shows in the OC and CC. 

Yes, the Beijing 2022 ceremonies & cauldron threads are already starting to light up. Particularly driven by you-know-who.

[munichfan]

I have to admit I am peculiarly fond of the authoritarian/totalitarian way to handle such ceremonies. That mixture of overdone perfectionism, megalomania and the inevitable instances of vicarious embarrassment just tends to be a much too entertaining thing for me.

I humbly ask for your forgiveness that I will be spending 80 percent of that opening ceremony drooling and wowed (and the other 20 percent eyerolling).

[Quaker2001]

15 hours ago, StefanMUC said:

No, they love to make their beds and bets with autocrats and dictators and that‘s the consequence of it. The 2024-2032 string may not look like it, but it‘s clear Bach & co are still heavily courting Putin and Xi. It‘s all very frustrating, and I really cannot understand why people also on here are even looking forward to what will be sickening propaganda shows in the OC and CC. 

Fortunately, there's 18 days worth of sports in and around the ceremonies, so we can largely ignore those and watch what the Olympics are really about.. the athletes

[AustralianFan]

2 hours ago, munichfan said:

I have to admit I am peculiarly fond of the authoritarian/totalitarian way to handle such ceremonies. That mixture of overdone perfectionism, megalomania and the inevitable instances of vicarious embarrassment just tends to be a much too entertaining thing for me.

I humbly ask for your forgiveness that I will be spending 80 percent of that opening ceremony drooling and wowed (and the other 20 percent eyerolling).

Absolutely, I will be watching the Beijing Ceremonies with great anticiptation and the Winter Olympic events as well.   The Ceremonies will be I’m sure very entertaining, even if I don’t agree with the politics of the governing parties in China.  
I’ll also keenly watch many events durung the Games as I always do.

But Zhang Yimou I’m sure will stage an entertainment spectactle soon at the Beijing 2022 Opening Ceremony which will be enthralling and artistic.

[AustralianFan]

link to Beijing 2022 Ceremonies

[AustralianFan]

3 hours ago, FYI said:

Yes, the Beijing 2022 ceremonies & cauldron threads are already starting to light up. Particularly driven by you-know-who.

link to Beijing 2022 Ceremonies

[FYI]

56 minutes ago, Quaker2001 said:

Fortunately, there's 18 days worth of sports in and around the ceremonies, so we can largely ignore those and watch what the Olympics are really about.. the athletes

LOL, don't count on that here on GB's. The "live-chat" opening & closing ceremonies threads will be all lit-up like a Christmas tree, as they usually are, come opening/closing ceremony day.

[Quaker2001]

11 minutes ago, FYI said:

LOL, don't count on that here on GB's. The "live-chat" opening & closing ceremonies threads will be all lit-up like a Christmas tree, as they usually are, come opening/closing ceremony day.

Oh, I'm well aware.  Still laugh at the notion here that sports are just filler between the ceremonies.

[Ikarus360]

Sadly when you're Russia's neighbour you have no choice but to dance to their tune or get Crimea'ed. The Soviet Union really never ended.