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Public opinion turns doubtful on the success of a Vancouver 2030 Winter Olympics bid


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Public confidence in a Vancouver 2030 Olympic Winter Games bid has dropped significantly since the project was first conceived in early 2020, a new poll by Research Co. has revealed. According to the survey released Monday only 43 per cent of those who responded across British Columbia said officials “definitely should” or “probably should” launch a […]

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Not the tiniest chance of that passing a referendum then...tbh for the next few years, at least until Paris, Milan and LA are done, the IOC should simply give up on any bid that needs or might have a referendum - tell any such city not to bother yet, it's not worth wasting everyone's time. If that means that for 2030, they need to bribe Salt Lake, gamble on Lviv, go straight for the easy way out with Sochi, or even change the winter games completely (split?) then so be it. Let referendum cities come back from 2034/6, once that late 20s good run (hopefully) is done. 

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49 minutes ago, yoshi said:

Not the tiniest chance of that passing a referendum then...tbh for the next few years, at least until Paris, Milan and LA are done, the IOC should simply give up on any bid that needs or might have a referendum - tell any such city not to bother yet, it's not worth wasting everyone's time. If that means that for 2030, they need to bribe Salt Lake, gamble on Lviv, go straight for the easy way out with Sochi, or even change the winter games completely (split?) then so be it. Let referendum cities come back from 2034/6, once that late 20s good run (hopefully) is done. 

I agree.  Anything referendum attached is effectively a death sentence to anywhere but SLC.

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42 minutes ago, yoshi said:

Not the tiniest chance of that passing a referendum then...tbh for the next few years, at least until Paris, Milan and LA are done, the IOC should simply give up on any bid that needs or might have a referendum - tell any such city not to bother yet, it's not worth wasting everyone's time. If that means that for 2030, they need to bribe Salt Lake, gamble on Lviv, go straight for the easy way out with Sochi, or even change the winter games completely (split?) then so be it. Let referendum cities come back from 2034/6, once that late 20s good run (hopefully) is done. 

For at least the nations that have a way of gauging public opinion through a referendum, and I don’t count China or Russia autocracies/dictatorships in this, the IOC New Norm requires majority public support to be behind a candidature.

Too many promising bids have had to withdraw because public support has swung against that bid.  The IOC is now on the front foot and to require a demonstration of majority public support - it’s not a choice.

Democracies like Canada, USA, Australia, UK, etc must demonstrate public support or their bid aint going anywhere.

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1 minute ago, iceman530 said:

I agree.  Anything referendum attached is effectively a death sentence to anywhere but SLC.

Salt Lake City 2030 is demonstrating very high public support.

Sapporo’s public support is waning.

Brisbane’s pro-Olympics government won their election in a landslide months before they were awarded the 2032 Games.

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1 hour ago, AustralianFan said:

Brisbane’s pro-Olympics government won their election in a landslide months before they were awarded the 2032 Games.

I wish you'd stop saying this. The landslide election win was driven by the pandemic response and lingering negative sentiment from past corruption by the Queensland LNP and had nothing to do with the games and even negative sentiment against the games wouldn't have made much difference especially considering the bipartisan support for the games.

 

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2 minutes ago, ulu said:

I wish you'd stop saying this. The landslide election win was driven by the pandemic response and lingering negative sentiment from past corruption by the Queensland LNP and had nothing to do with the games and even negative sentiment against the games wouldn't have made much difference especially considering the bipartisan support for the games.

 

Sorry mate, it’s got nothing to do with how comfortable you personally are about the Queensland Election win by the pro-Olympics State Government and or how you personslly perceivehow big the pandemic response factor was in the huge State Election win by Premier Palaszcuk.   It’s all about how the IOC Future Host Commssion perceived it which was to recommend Brisbane to the EB for Targeted Dialogue, following on from the three separate opinion polls showing majority support of Queenslanders for the 2032 Olympics.  One of these opinion polls I understand was conducted by the IOC themselves.

Had the Queensland Government lost the 2020 State Election, big questions would have been raised in the mind of the IOC Future Host Commisson as to the actual level of public support.

 But the the Queensland Government did win the election in a  landslide and 3 months or so later Brisbane was elevated to Targeted Dialogue.  The rest is history.

 

 

 

 

exactly how it was perceive

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Well, this certainly isn't all that surprising, since the COC never really was backing it. And this further little tidbit only reinforces that there's really no other viable suitors, since Barcelona & Sapporo are also still very iffy, & what I think (as I mentioned back in the 2030 "contingency" thread a couple of weeks ago), that it wouldn't surprise me in the least now, that the USOC & IOC will very much try & work out a deal in their "meeting" next month with SLC, & probably announce it by Beijing 2022. The IOC is in no mood to 'gamble' these days (as demonstrated with 2032 already) & are likely just anxious now to close this (2030) deal asap.  

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On 10/27/2021 at 8:33 AM, AustralianFan said:

Sorry mate, it’s got nothing to do with how comfortable you personally are about the Queensland Election win by the pro-Olympics State Government and or how you personslly perceivehow big the pandemic response factor was in the huge State Election win by Premier Palaszcuk.   It’s all about how the IOC Future Host Commssion perceived it which was to recommend Brisbane to the EB for Targeted Dialogue, following on from the three separate opinion polls showing majority support of Queenslanders for the 2032 Olympics.  One of these opinion polls I understand was conducted by the IOC themselves.

Had the Queensland Government lost the 2020 State Election, big questions would have been raised in the mind of the IOC Future Host Commisson as to the actual level of public support.

 But the the Queensland Government did win the election in a  landslide and 3 months or so later Brisbane was elevated to Targeted Dialogue.  The rest is history.

 

11 years is a very long time in Queensland politics.

Queensland is the most notoriously the most volatile / polarised constituency in Australia. As mentioned above, the huge swing to Labor at the last election was primarily driven by the pandemic response - as was also demonstrated in WA. It had nothing to do with the Olympic bid. 

Scenario... Qld is the country's only unicameral state Parliament - and there is a great divide between the Northern regions and the SEQ urban areas. With the rise of far right populism - whats to say a party like the UAP or One Nation couldn't make "Nolympics" a platform? Particularly troubling if they held balance of power to an LNP Government.... no we don't have referendums in Australia on civic issues like an Olympics... but we do have very powerful conscience votes of MPs. Such an action could effectively block State funding for the event.

 

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The Host contract has been signed.

The Organsing Committee and the Olympic Infrastructure Coordination Authority are about to be legislated.

Both the Labor and LNP parties support Brisbane 2032 in Queensland and Federally.

There is no realistic and likely political scenario which stops Brisbane 2032 going ahead.

These current federal/state funding split discussion is being ironed out.

No nut-job right-wing minority fringe party can possibly  stop the 2032 Olympics going ahead.  They’re dreaming if they can think they can, seriously.  They had their chance before the Host Election and they failed miserably.

 This ridiculous scenario speculation that you’ve posted is just that - ridiculous.  Sorry mate, no offence, but it is.

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14 hours ago, Australian Kiwi said:

11 years is a very long time in Queensland politics.

Queensland is the most notoriously the most volatile / polarised constituency in Australia. As mentioned above, the huge swing to Labor at the last election was primarily driven by the pandemic response - as was also demonstrated in WA. It had nothing to do with the Olympic bid. 

Scenario... Qld is the country's only unicameral state Parliament - and there is a great divide between the Northern regions and the SEQ urban areas. With the rise of far right populism - whats to say a party like the UAP or One Nation couldn't make "Nolympics" a platform? Particularly troubling if they held balance of power to an LNP Government.... no we don't have referendums in Australia on civic issues like an Olympics... but we do have very powerful conscience votes of MPs. Such an action could effectively block State funding for the event.

 

The Host contract has been signed.

The Organsing Committee and the Olympic Infrastructure Coordination Authority are about to be legislated.

Both the Labor and LNP parties support Brisbane 2032 in Queensland and Federally.

There is no realistic and likely political scenario which stops Brisbane 2032 going ahead.

These current federal/state funding split discussion is being ironed out.

No nut-job right-wing minority fringe party can possibly  stop the 2032 Olympics going ahead.  They’re dreaming if they can think they can, seriously.  They had their chance before the Host Election and they failed miserably.

 This ridiculous scenario speculation that you’ve posted is just that - ridiculous.  Sorry mate, no offence, but it is.

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1 hour ago, AustralianFan said:

 

The Host contract has been signed.

The Organsing Committee and the Olympic Infrastructure Coordination Authority are about to be legislated.

Both the Labor and LNP parties support Brisbane 2032 in Queensland and Federally.

There is no realistic and likely political scenario which stops Brisbane 2032 going ahead.

These current federal/state funding split discussion is being ironed out.

No nut-job right-wing minority fringe party can possibly  stop the 2032 Olympics going ahead.  They’re dreaming if they can think they can, seriously.  They had their chance before the Host Election and they failed miserably.

 This ridiculous scenario speculation that you’ve posted is just that - ridiculous.  Sorry mate, no offence, but it is.

I never said it was likely - I just said it was possible. An IOC contract wouldn't mean anything if a conscience vote resulted the undoing of funding streams and legislation for an event that had become politically maligned by the electorate. My original point is that this decade will be a long one and this idea that all are onboard with 2032 is a narrow view of the road ahead - especially in the vast Queensland political landscape. 

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31 minutes ago, Australian Kiwi said:

I never said it was likely - I just said it was possible. An IOC contract wouldn't mean anything if a conscience vote resulted the undoing of funding streams and legislation for an event that had become politically maligned by the electorate. My original point is that this decade will be a long one and this idea that all are onboard with 2032 is a narrow view of the road ahead - especially in the vast Queensland political landscape. 

There will never be a conscience vote granted.

These Olympics are happening and regional Queensland local government councils right up to far north Queensland are now clamouring for part of the action, particularly putting their hands up for hosting training sites and venues for the many Olyic national teams from around the world.  Some of these loval government councils were not so enthusiastic during the build-up to the Host vote but they have come alive now in support of Brisbane 2032 and the $$$m jobs and boost to the economy.

This scenario or possibility of whatever you call it is not going to happen - it’s pie in the sky stuff.

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38 minutes ago, Australian Kiwi said:

I never said it was likely - I just said it was possible. An IOC contract wouldn't mean anything if a conscience vote resulted the undoing of funding streams and legislation for an event that had become politically maligned by the electorate. My original point is that this decade will be a long one and this idea that all are onboard with 2032 is a narrow view of the road ahead - especially in the vast Queensland political landscape. 

Where did you get this bs about the Olympics being politcally maligned?

Three opinion polls this year have consisently showed around 64% of Queenslanders support the Brisbane 2032 Olympics.

What you are contemplating as a possibility of the minority parties somehow upturning all of this is nonsense.

 

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16 hours ago, AustralianFan said:

 

The Host contract has been signed.

The Organsing Committee and the Olympic Infrastructure Coordination Authority are about to be legislated.

Both the Labor and LNP parties support Brisbane 2032 in Queensland and Federally.

There is no realistic and likely political scenario which stops Brisbane 2032 going ahead.

These current federal/state funding split discussion is being ironed out.

No nut-job right-wing minority fringe party can possibly  stop the 2032 Olympics going ahead.  They’re dreaming if they can think they can, seriously.  They had their chance before the Host Election and they failed miserably.

 This ridiculous scenario speculation that you’ve posted is just that - ridiculous.  Sorry mate, no offence, but it is.

For the record, the chances of Brisbane giving the Olympics back are slim to none, but the previous post makes a good point about the longer lead in times for an Olympics. It is entirely possible that a change in government in a future Olympic host city could say no to the IOC's party after the Games are awarded (see Denver 1976). The chance of this goes up if there's some type of catastrophe (economic depression or recession). 

Host city contracts are meaningless because the IOC does not have the power to tell sitting governments what to do. The IOC has no political authority. It is a nonprofit (I use that term loosely) organization. If a city were to say no thanks after the host contract is signed, sure the IOC would give a good tongue lashing, but that's really all they could do. I suppose the IOC could try to sue in a court of law (probably CAS) but this would be very expensive and lead to endless injunctions and litigations which would give the IOC a black eye publicly (I should say a second as they already have one). 

In terms of legislation, well in democracies, legislation gets repealed and replaced all the time. 

So yes, a host city is not locked in stone and there's always a chance especially if there's a change in government that is hostile to an Olympics for a city to abandon hosting rights, but as I said earlier, it is slim to none in Brisbane's case.

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1 hour ago, stryker said:

For the record, the chances of Brisbane giving the Olympics back are slim to none, but the previous post makes a good point about the longer lead in times for an Olympics. It is entirely possible that a change in government in a future Olympic host city could say no to the IOC's party after the Games are awarded (see Denver 1976). The chance of this goes up if there's some type of catastrophe (economic depression or recession). 

Host city contracts are meaningless because the IOC does not have the power to tell sitting governments what to do. The IOC has no political authority. It is a nonprofit (I use that term loosely) organization. If a city were to say no thanks after the host contract is signed, sure the IOC would give a good tongue lashing, but that's really all they could do. I suppose the IOC could try to sue in a court of law (probably CAS) but this would be very expensive and lead to endless injunctions and litigations which would give the IOC a black eye publicly (I should say a second as they already have one). 

In terms of legislation, well in democracies, legislation gets repealed and replaced all the time. 

So yes, a host city is not locked in stone and there's always a chance especially if there's a change in government that is hostile to an Olympics for a city to abandon hosting rights, but as I said earlier, it is slim to none in Brisbane's case.

I go further and say there is zero chance of Brisbane 2032 abandoning it’s hosting rights even with a long lead-in time.

There is absolutely no evidence of even the slightest possibility of both the governing and major opposition parties in both Queensland and in Canberra abandoning their bi-partisan support in hosting Australia’s third Olympic Games.  Australia and Queensland just do not elect minor parties to government.   

You’re talking about a country beung Australia and a state being Queensland which absolutely loves sport and loves the Olympics.

Combine that with the benefits, jobs, tourism and economic bounce coming out of a once in a hundred years pandemic and you have unwavering support from both the governing and major opoosition parties.

So yes, zero chance of Brisbane 2032 abandoning hosting resonsibilities - not slim, zero chance

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