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Sapporo 2030: Give them an offer they can't refuse with no bids involved


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On 3/16/2022 at 9:11 PM, Karenina said:

No, it won't be an issue.  These are two previous hosts from two major NOCs.  I'd bet a double of Sapporo and SLC  all but guarantees that Toyota renews as a TOP and NBC pays a pretty penny for the new broadcast contract.  It's nothing but a win-win and, if the poll results are accurate, I fully expect for both Sapporo and SLC to move to the "targeted dialogue" phase and a 2030-2034 double award at the next IOC session (Summer 2023, right?) or possibly even earlier.  

I think the IPC agreement is a bigger obstacle.  Hard to lock in a 2034 host if it's not guaranteed yet what they'll be hosting.  IMO, the timeline here is that they'll lock in Sapporo as 2030 host assuming they're on solid footing, which it's starting to look like they are, then get all their ducks in a row knowing Salt Lake is all but a given for 2034.  Yes, that will help push along sponsorship deals.  And it'll guarantee a rights bidding war for future media rights in the US (as opposed to the 2022-2032 which was handed to NBC on a silver platter).

So I don't quite see this being the same deal as Paris-LA.  But definitely might have the IOC move fairly quickly from Sapporo getting 2030 to Salt Lake getting 2034.

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25 minutes ago, munichfan said:

There's this magical thing called "targeted dialogue" nowadays. Just give SLC that and all is set for rubber-stamping when (not if) the new agreement with the IPC is settled.

And I think that may be exactly what happens.  Make it public that SLC has it, figure out all the contractual stuff needed in advance of the official announcement, and then have them sign on the dotted line.  All the while telling other prospective bidders that 2034 is off the table and start looking to 2038 and beyond if they'd like

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But is the Sapporo "poll" really enough for the IOC  to award 2030 again to Sapporo?  A NoOlympics group could challenge the arrangement later on when that level of support (now at 52%) dips below 50%?  And them not wanting to go to a BINDING referendum really shows what a weak house of cards this Sapporo 2030 bid is.  It just doesn't sound very solid to me; it's like it's just hanging by a few threads.  

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4 hours ago, Quaker2001 said:

And it'll guarantee a rights bidding war for future media rights in the US (as opposed to the 2022-2032 which was handed to NBC on a silver platter).

I disagree.  NBC's ratings for the Beijing Games were dismal.  I'm not sure how good the ratings were for Tokyo either, but the shine is off the Olympics with the US viewing public right now.  I could be wrong, but I'm not seeing a bidding war for future media rights with the other networks.  ABC/ESPN certainly don't need the Olympics to fill their channels and streaming platforms, and neither Fox nor CBS have as many additional cable channels to support the same number of hours NBC provides.

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1 minute ago, Karenina said:

I disagree.  NBC's ratings for the Beijing Games were dismal.  I'm not sure how good the ratings were for Tokyo either, but the shine is off the Olympics with the US viewing public right now.  I could be wrong, but I'm not seeing a bidding war for future media rights with the other networks.  ABC/ESPN certainly don't need the Olympics to fill their channels and streaming platforms, and neither Fox nor CBS have as many additional cable channels to support the same number of hours NBC provides.

After NFL, NBA and World Cup rights, I believe the Oly rights are still right up there.  Ratings for Tokyo 2021 and Beijing 2022 only suffered because of the unforeseen dislocation of Covid and the geographical alignment.  But going into the cycles starting with Brisbane 2032 and perhaps SLC 2034 on a scenario LA 2028 wishes for, 2036 possibly back in Europe--at least those would be the more predictable immediate ones, I'd say bidding for the Olympic rights will still be as hot.  Who knows how the IOC will package the next succeeding set of Games -- but NBC's purchase of 6 Games in 2014 was their doing -- not instigated by the IOC.  NBC/Comcast is such a sucker for Oly rights regardless of the hiccups and stumbles it encounters along the road.   (I believe NBC still made money with Tokyo but will take a loss for Beijing.)  

You overlook the LARGER potential for US networks bidding esp for the SUmmer Games.  When things are normal and they will be in favorable timezone to the US Eastern market, the American networks see the Summer Games as a springboard for their very important Fall line-ups.  A home-grown or North American WOGs can only be gravy in a smaller package.  

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This is still such an amazing shock to my system.  Given what Japan just went through with Tokyo, for this poll, is nothing short of a miracle.  Im on cloud 9 over it.  Sapporo 2030/SLC 2034 stops the bleeding if it can get over the finish line.  It buys the WOGs time to get their act together so we can keep this party going long term.  

Amazing happiness has settled, Cautious optimism is now in place.  But........still gotta get it over the finish line.  As we've seen with some of this craziness over the past two years, just want things to go as smoothly as possible to make a nice event.  

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6 hours ago, iceman530 said:

This is still such an amazing shock to my system.  Given what Japan just went through with Tokyo, for this poll, is nothing short of a miracle.  Im on cloud 9 over it.  Sapporo 2030/SLC 2034 stops the bleeding if it can get over the finish line.  It buys the WOGs time to get their act together so we can keep this party going long term.  

Amazing happiness has settled, Cautious optimism is now in place.  But........still gotta get it over the finish line.  As we've seen with some of this craziness over the past two years, just want things to go as smoothly as possible to make a nice event.  

It's likely an inflated poll with inaccurate numbers. 50/50 says we see a prominent No Olympics crowd making some noise in Sapporo over the next few months.

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On 3/19/2022 at 3:34 PM, Karenina said:

I disagree.  NBC's ratings for the Beijing Games were dismal.  I'm not sure how good the ratings were for Tokyo either, but the shine is off the Olympics with the US viewing public right now.  I could be wrong, but I'm not seeing a bidding war for future media rights with the other networks.  ABC/ESPN certainly don't need the Olympics to fill their channels and streaming platforms, and neither Fox nor CBS have as many additional cable channels to support the same number of hours NBC provides.

Key phrase in this post.. "right now."  baron hit on a lot of the main points, but we're coming off 2 Olympics with a laundry list of negatives attached to them that hurt viewership, most notably the pandemic.  We've seen a lot of numbers fall off for sports during the pandemic only to bounce back afterwards.  I believe that will be the case for NBC and the Olympics with 2024/2026, and then especially 2028 with an Olympics on home soil.  So yes, absolutely I believe there will be a bidding war, especially if 2034 is locked in for Salt Lake.

Content is king these days.  ESPN would absolutely love to have rights to the Olympics if they can get their hands on them.  Fox and CBS are a little more questionable, although CBS has a streaming platform they're looking for more attention, especially with sports.  Cable networks may or may not be as important a decade from now given the number of cord-cutters out there.  But here's the most important point of all...

On 3/19/2022 at 3:45 PM, baron-pierreIV said:

(I believe NBC still made money with Tokyo but will take a loss for Beijing.)  

Exact numbers are tough to come by, but it sounds like because of strong ad sales, NBC will at worst break even for Tokyo.  Huge drops in ratings and they can still claim success.  The Olympics have traditionally been a huge moneymaker for them, the main exception being Vancouver 2010 following the worldwide economic downturn.  Again, 2 years from now when we finally get back (hopefully) to a sense of normalcy with the Olympics, viewership I'm very confident will bounce back.  Maybe not to the heights we saw 10 years ago, but more than enough for NBC to claim success.  And enough for the IOC to engage with multiple media outlets who will want a piece of the action, especially as big tech companies like Amazon and Facebook and Apple continue to make inroads into live sports

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On 3/19/2022 at 7:01 AM, stryker said:

What's interesting and perhaps I'm stretching things a bit here, these numbers are almost identical to what Oslo had in their 2022 bid and we saw how that turned out.

Yeah, but what finally put the last nail on the Oslo 2022 coffin, was the IOC's list of "demands", not necessarily the lukewarm poll numbers. The IOC, as usual, wanted to have it's cake & it eat it, too. And in the end, the Norwegians simply said; we ain't baking anything for you then. 

On 3/19/2022 at 7:01 AM, stryker said:

Perhaps it might be better for the IOC to tell Sapporo to think about 2034 so they can shore up their public support.

Or perhaps, maybe having a clause in there, where SLC could swap places, if Sapporo did need more time to shore up support? If not, then I can't see how 2034 would be that much favorable anyway, & SLC 2030 it is then.

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Aren't those wiki pages checked for some sort of accuracy before they get revised? The moment whoever says Sapporo's "major lack of infrastructure", it loses all credibility after that. Not to mention the lack that SLC is not even mentioned in there. Total (Vancouver-tilt) farce. Man, Alicia also ain't gonna like how Vancouver gets so propped up like that, either. :lol:

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2 hours ago, FYI said:

Aren't those wiki pages checked for some sort of accuracy before they get revised? The moment whoever says Sapporo's "major lack of infrastructure", it loses all credibility after that. Not to mention the lack that SLC is not even mentioned in there. Total (Vancouver-tilt) farce. Man, Alicia also ain't gonna like how Vancouver gets so propped up like that, either. :lol:

Supposedly.  But it may also take a few days before someone else gets to the changes and confirms or rejects the "updates."  

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 3/3/2022 at 6:20 AM, SportLightning said:

I think Nagano could use several venues including skiing, bobsled/luge and snowboarding. Sapporo would host the rest of them. Possible zones:

Olympic Venues -

Sapporo Zone:
Sapporo Dome - Opening Ceremony

Okurayana Ski Jump Stadium - Ski Jumping

Miyanomori Ski Jump Stadium - Big Air Snowboarding

Tsukisamu Gymnasium - Men's Ice Hockey

Mikaho Gymnasium - Women's Ice Hockey

Sapporo Curling Stadium - Curling

Obihiro Forest Speed Skating Oval - Speed Skating

Makomanai Ice Arena - Figure Skating, Short Track Speed Skating

 

Nagano Zone:

Minami Nagano Sports Park - Closing Ceremony

Happo'one Resort - Alpine Skiing (Downhill and Super G)

Iizuna Kogen Ski Area - Freestyling Skiing

Kanbayashi Snowboard Park - Snowboarding (halfpipe)

Mount Higashidate/Mount Yakebitai - Alpine Skiing

Nozawa Onsen Ski Resort - Biathlon

Snow Harp - Cross-country Skiing and Nordic Combined

Spiral - Bobsleigh and Luge

 

Aomori Zone:

Ajigasawa Ski Area - Snowboard (Alpine)

 

Paralympic Zones

Sapporo Zone:

Sapporo Dome - Opening and Closing Ceremonies and Ice Sledge Racing

Mikaho Gymnasium - Ice Sledge Hockey

Sapporo Teine - Alpine Skiing (Downhill and Super G)

Shirahatayama Open Stadium - Cross country skiing

Nagano Zone:

Nozawa Onsen Ski Resort - Biathlon

Snow Harp - Cross-country Skiing and Nordic Combined

Kazakoshi Park Arena - Wheelchair Curling

 

Non-competition venues:

Sapporo Zone:
 

Sapporo Olympic Village

Sapporo Odori Park -  Live Site and Medal Plaza

 

Nagano Zone:

Nagano Olympic Village

IBC/MPC

 

Aomori Zone:

Aomori Olympic Village

 

That's the possible Sapporo/Nagano 2030 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games Master Plans.

Nagano is located in the very middle of Japanese archipelago. There is 800km distance between Sapporo and Nagano,and I don't think it's easy to move between the 2 cities frequently in midwinter. The bobsleigh venue in Hokkaido is now the ruin.So the venue in Nagano 1998 should be renovated by 2030. 

http://asobihorokerusan.whitesnow.jp/senjaku_bob15_067.JPG

http://asobihorokerusan.whitesnow.jp/senjaku_bob15_061.JPG

http://asobihorokerusan.whitesnow.jp/teine_pt18_077.jpg

And 20 years after Nagano 1998...

Quote

 

 

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Besides germany and Austria, who else practice sliding sports?. Literally every host has to build a new sliding center, and theres only like 8 stadiums in the world. Weightlifting and boxing gets out of the olympic programme but sliding events not?, why not just making them like baseball, host them if you want

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1 hour ago, Chris_Mex said:

Besides germany and Austria, who else practice sliding sports?. Literally every host has to build a new sliding center, and theres only like 8 stadiums in the world. Weightlifting and boxing gets out of the olympic programme but sliding events not?, why not just making them like baseball, host them if you want

All major winter sports countries except Sweden and Norway actually have competitive sliding athletes. Those countries also have tracks.

That the IOC chooses places that don‘t have tracks is an argument against the IOC at least as much as against the sliding sports.

 

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13 hours ago, Palette86 said:

Nagano is located in the very middle of Japanese archipelago. There is 800km distance between Sapporo and Nagano,and I don't think it's easy to move between the 2 cities frequently in midwinter. The bobsleigh venue in Hokkaido is now the ruin.So the venue in Nagano 1998 should be renovated by 2030. 

http://asobihorokerusan.whitesnow.jp/senjaku_bob15_067.JPG

http://asobihorokerusan.whitesnow.jp/senjaku_bob15_061.JPG

http://asobihorokerusan.whitesnow.jp/teine_pt18_077.jpg

And 20 years after Nagano 1998...

 

That was my idea for the possible Sapporo-Nagano joint bid.

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As with 1964 Tokyo, Sapporo 1972 was held when "Olympics" seemed to have more sense of occasion or a feeling of dignity, maturity. If that city in Japan can tap into more of that versus what Nagano did in 1998, that will a good thing.

Regardless, the IOC should also start rotating, in particular, winter games between a preset list of cities.

Hey, look. 1972's winter opening even came with a choir!

 

 

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6 hours ago, Olympics2028 said:

 

As with 1964 Tokyo, Sapporo 1972 was held when "Olympics" seemed to have more sense of occasion or a feeling of dignity, maturity. If that city in Japan can tap into more of that versus what Nagano did in 1998, that will a good thing.

Regardless, the IOC should also start rotating, in particular, winter games between a preset list of cities.

Hey, look. 1972's winter opening even came with a choir!

 

 

That might be possible.

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  • 3 weeks later...

If Sapporo happens in 2030, it would be the FIFTH Winter City to repeat their 2nd try.  So that would equal FIVE 2x hosts of the Summer Games:

REPEAT OLYMPIC HOSTS:
Summer - Paris, London, Los Angeles (3x'ers), Athens, Tokyo (2x'ers).
Winter - St. Moritz, Innsbruck, Lake Placid, Cortina (1.5x) and either Sapp, SLC or Vancouver would be 2x hosts.  
1st Bisexual host - Beijing!! :lol:

Edited by baron-pierreIV
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