Sapporo 2030: Give them an offer they can't refuse with no bids involved

[Chris_Mex]

It's the first positive poll I have seen in almost a decade of bids turned down by referendums, by a small percentage, but yet positive

[FYI]

17 hours ago, Australian Kiwi said:

Any chance we might see a double awarding? Sapporo 2030 + Salt Lake 2034 seems like an optimal outcome.

 

13 hours ago, munichfan said:

Now, if that survey turns out favourable, I have no doubt that both Sapporo and SLC will have gone to targeted dialogue by the summer.

 

10 hours ago, munichfan said:

Wait, is that THE poll? In that case, it should be all set for 2030 then, shouldn't it?

 

6 hours ago, yoshi said:

Looks like we just got ourselves a host  Lock SLC in for 34 as well, then no need to look for another winter city till the decade is nearly out - 

So, it looks like we might get another double-“fetish” after all! 

Although, it does say that “detailed” (Sapporo) survey results will be released in April. So we’ll still have to stay tuned.

[Sir Rols]

17 hours ago, Australian Kiwi said:

Any chance we might see a double awarding? Sapporo 2030 + Salt Lake 2034 seems like an optimal outcome.

 

14 hours ago, munichfan said:

Now, if that survey turns out favourable, I have no doubt that both Sapporo and SLC will have gone to targeted dialogue by the summer.

Ordinarily I’d be wary and not particularly keen of a double awarding, but it might just make sense and be good timing in this case. Now that the IOC’s got the summer games locked up till 2032 and have up to 6-7 years before they really have to get serious about about 2036, the winters are the main worry (and the ones they’re having most problems with finding takers). But locking up 2030 and 34 would give them an even bigger breathing space - some time to curate and shepherd future hosts, hopefully see some more positive news games in the west under their belt and even perhaps have a new regime in place in Lausanne with Bach due to be bowing out soon. It wouldn’t hurt if they got a bit of time to consolidate and take stock.

[Guilga]

7 hours ago, yoshi said:

Looks like we just got ourselves a host  Lock SLC in for 34 as well, then no need to look for another winter city till the decade is nearly out - all the focus can go on 2036 now, there'll need to be a proper process now Bach's candidate St Petersburg is...out. 

I don´t think another double adwarding is happening yet; the current partnership between the IOC and IPC only extends until 2032. I think it´s unlikely that a 2034 or a 2036 bid process is going to start until the relationship between the Paras is renewed or else, unless someone in the IOC want to start some political confusion.

This said, if it´s set for real that Sapporo will bid, they might actually have competition this time; Salt Lake City is in a similar stage of bid-materialization, Vancouver might sort something out, Barcelona too if a miracle happens.

I think we might have a actual race here starting.

[Sir Rols]

4 minutes ago, Guilga said:

I don´t think another double adwarding is happening yet; the current partnership between the IOC and IPC only extends until 2032. I think it´s unlikely that a 2034 or a 2036 bid process is going to start until the relationship between the Paras is renewed or else, unless someone in the IOC want to start some political confusion.

I don’t think there’s any risk in that - it’s more a formality. The benefits only flow one way really, to the IPC. They’re the only one to gain by it - and what benefit to them if they try to break off on their own?

[Guilga]

1 minute ago, Sir Rols said:

I don’t think there’s any risk in that - it’s more a formality. The benefits only flow one way really, to the IPC. They’re the only one to gain by it - and what benefit to them if they try to break off on their own?

I think that in this case, the mess would be caused by the IOC breaking them off, even though the two organizations being brought toghether over time. But for the IOC there is indeed no risk to double-adward, that i agree; i was just thinking that such move would trigger the other side´s attention, which i think could cause some attrition relating to the process. This made worse by both summer and winter Future Bids Comission of the new bidding system having IPC representatives.

[Sir Rols]

I doubt the IOC would break them of - the optics wouldn’t look good. And the IPC really has no choice but to accept whatever hosts the IOC goes with. The IPC gains as much - if not more - from a double hosting as the IOC.  They really only have a seat at the table at all by the grace of the IOC and are very much the junior partner.

Edited March 16, 2022 by Sir Rols

[Guilga]

For sure i agree, as much as the Paras deserves more overall attention of the public. It would really be bad optics for the IOC if they ever do it as well; one more for their count of many. But, if a double-adward happens, we might see a situation where legally the IOC isn´t required to oblige the 2034 host to have the paras as well. But, indeed, if this happen all this will be sorted out more likely. 

[cfm Jeremie]

The main (and probably only) obstacle preventing the double award is the fact that no TOP partners nor RHBs is signed post 2032 so far. I think it would be a (rather small) gamble for the IOC to commit to a specific funding to the 2034 host without securing a significant part of the revenues.

[Guilga]

6 minutes ago, cfm Jeremie said:

The main (and probably only) obstacle preventing the double award is the fact that no TOP partners nor RHBs is signed post 2032 so far. I think it would be a (rather small) gamble for the IOC to commit to a specific funding to the 2034 host without securing a significant part of the revenues.

Huh, i actually did not even thought of that! This really is a big issue if someone has to commit to it...but in the other hand, if the double-host is a golden pair like Paris-LA, this might become a no-issue at all. If the markets align, a full sponsorship slate could come with even more money than before.

[Karenina]

2 hours ago, cfm Jeremie said:

The main (and probably only) obstacle preventing the double award is the fact that no TOP partners nor RHBs is signed post 2032 so far. I think it would be a (rather small) gamble for the IOC to commit to a specific funding to the 2034 host without securing a significant part of the revenues.

No, it won't be an issue.  These are two previous hosts from two major NOCs.  I'd bet a double of Sapporo and SLC  all but guarantees that Toyota renews as a TOP and NBC pays a pretty penny for the new broadcast contract.  It's nothing but a win-win and, if the poll results are accurate, I fully expect for both Sapporo and SLC to move to the "targeted dialogue" phase and a 2030-2034 double award at the next IOC session (Summer 2023, right?) or possibly even earlier.  

[iceman530]

18 hours ago, Palette86 said:

Date: March 16,2022

News source:The Japan Times

Link:https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/03/16/national/sapporo-winter-olympics-poll/

WOAH!!!  

BFD there!!!!  Come on Sapporo, hold strong!!!  

I am SO here for Sapporo 2030, SLC 2034!!!!

[iceman530]

Hell, I wouldnt press my luck, Id take that poll as the bible if I could.  Thats all the ammo the IOC needs to get this party started.  

[iceman530]

“We have no such plans,” Akimoto said at a news conference, explaining the technicalities in Japan of going to a public, binding vote. “So there are no plans to hold a referendum on the Olympics and Paralympics.”

BOOM BABY!!!!  Theyre taking it!!! Its happening!!!! SOOOO AWESOME!!!

<------this is me being very excited.

[FYI]

[StefanMUC]

But if they do a double, what would the poor future host commission members do in the next 5 years or so? Sitting idle and count the cash in Lausanne‘s cellars? A tragic fate under the New Norm.

[munichfan]

1 hour ago, StefanMUC said:

But if they do a double, what would the poor future host commission members do in the next 5 years or so? Sitting idle and count the cash in Lausanne‘s cellars? A tragic fate under the New Norm.

Last year, Grabar-Kitarovic was appointed chief of the future summer host commission with 15 years to go to the next games being awarded. I bet they'll find a purpose in committing to "continuous dialogue" during some nice wine tastings and such.

[Australian Kiwi]

As previously mentioned, I can't see the IPC wanting to go it alone, and the IOC won't part with them. Its a mutually beneficial arrangement. 

If the IPC decided to pursue its own course and its own host cities it would be up sh!t creek like the Commonwealth Games.

[stryker]

I find the numbers dubious considering previous polls showed significant gaps in public support, now all of a sudden the numbers have suddenly flipped.gicen how little has been said about the methods logy or reliability of the polling, this is the equivalent of internal polling numbers conducted by the Biden and Trump campaigns, in other words, biased.

Of even more consequence is the sudden decision not to hold a referendum and the local government even stated holding one would be dicey. If the support is truly not there and the IOC goes forward with giving them 2030 I wouldn't rule out a significant No Olympics movement that either pushes for a referendum or the even worse. . . A repeat of what happened with Denver 

[StefanMUC]

If the IOC gave a binding guarantee to Sapporo that Fencing 1976 will not set his feet on Japanese ground ever again, no matter in which role, they could pass a referendum with 95%.

 

 

 

[AustralianFan]

Sapporo 2030:  #2 New Norm Host Selection

 As this is the second New Norm host selection process after Brisbane last year, it’s worth reflecting on what measures were used to gauge public opinion ahead of Brisbane’s elevation to Targeted Dialogue 12 months ago.

It should be noted that was never a formal referendum on Brisbane 2032.

However, there were the following to assess public opinion:

3 x opinion polls, one by the IOC and two by newspapers, all three of which showed around 60-65% public support for the Games.

The Queensland State Government also won the 2020 ‘pandemic’ election in a landslide toward the end of 2020, although the Olympics did not even feature in the slightest as an election issue since bi-partisan support existing across the governing and main opposition party.

So, for New Norm Host Election #1, no formal public referendum was ever done.

[AustralianFan]

From our own Rob Livingstone, is the link to Sapporo’s draft bid outline for 2030 - click here on >> 2030 Hokkaido Sapporo draft Olympic bid outline

 

 

[StefanMUC]

So hang on (and forgive me if this was already mentioned but I‘ve blocked messages from certain users now)…Sapporo will NOT have a referendum?!
 

https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1120708/sapporo-2030-winter-olympics-public-vote

They just go by those opinion poll results. Well then fine, but don‘t use it as a narrative that finally a bid survived a public vote because truth is, it hasn‘t as long as there is no real vote.

 

[SportLightning]

Sapporo have a lot of support for the 2030 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games bid, they might win the bid since the Japanese city is considered the favorite to host.

[stryker]

13 hours ago, StefanMUC said:

So hang on (and forgive me if this was already mentioned but I‘ve blocked messages from certain users now)…Sapporo will NOT have a referendum?!
 

https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1120708/sapporo-2030-winter-olympics-public-vote

They just go by those opinion poll results. Well then fine, but don‘t use it as a narrative that finally a bid survived a public vote because truth is, it hasn‘t as long as there is no real vote.

 

It's a dicey proposition considering it was a government sponsored poll with very little information on how it was conducted. What's interesting and perhaps I'm stretching things a bit here, these numbers are almost identical to what Oslo had in their 2022 bid and we saw how that turned out.

If these numbers are indeed inflated, there's a good chance we could see an active No Olympics movement. Would the IOC risk awarding Sapporo 2030 to have it possibly backfire in a Denver type scenario. I wouldn't rule it out. Remember the first order of all politicians is to keep getting elected.

Perhaps it might be better for the IOC to tell Sapporo to think about 2034 so they can shore up their public support.