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Sapporo 2030: Give them an offer they can't refuse with no bids involved


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4 hours ago, stryker said:

I'll give them credit for engaging the public on a somewhat grassroots level but it is still going to be an uphill battle for support. With the financial losses of Tokyo still fresh I don't know exactly what the pitch here is other than "don't worry this will be different."

I feel like they're better served to wait until after the Winter Olympics.  That way, Tokyo isn't the most recent Olympics to happen, although we'll see what happens with Beijing now with Omicron ripping across the planet.  But I also get wanting to know sooner rather than later if it's worth pushing forward.  And it's not like the IOC can do anything to make the Olympics more appealing if the public doesn't want it.  Best they can do is change the nature of the host city contract so that in case there's another unforeseen circumstance like a once-in-a-century pandemic, they're better protected than Tokyo was

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Changing the terms on the host-city contract to try & entice the public seems like it would be a "too little, too late" move IMO. Plus, I doubt the IOC would want to put themselves in such a precarious position TBW.

With Vancouver's support numbers being so dismal, Sapporo is the last hope for a double lock-in at this point. Otherwise, the IOC will have no choice but to go with a solid SLC 2030 bid at this point. I'm sure the IOC will be watching the result of that Sapporo survey with bated breath, & hope that it passes.  

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19 hours ago, Quaker2001 said:

I feel like they're better served to wait until after the Winter Olympics.  That way, Tokyo isn't the most recent Olympics to happen, although we'll see what happens with Beijing now with Omicron ripping across the planet.  But I also get wanting to know sooner rather than later if it's worth pushing forward.  And it's not like the IOC can do anything to make the Olympics more appealing if the public doesn't want it.  Best they can do is change the nature of the host city contract so that in case there's another unforeseen circumstance like a once-in-a-century pandemic, they're better protected than Tokyo was

I think the only other thing that could be done to sway public opinion would be for the IOC to chip in more cash which they don't seem inclined to do at this point. I know that the Sapporo organizers have reduced the budget but we have yet to see exactly what has been cut and what a venue plan would look like. Obviously you have the ski jumping complex and the ice arena from the 1972 WOGs and sliding events have been tagged for Nagano. I would assume Sapporo Dome for the ceremonies but I wonder if it would be possible to use the new ES Con Field for the ceremonies and divide the Sapporo Done into two arenas for ice hockey?

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7 hours ago, stryker said:

I know that the Sapporo organizers have reduced the budget but we have yet to see exactly what has been cut and what a venue plan would look like. Obviously you have the ski jumping complex and the ice arena from the 1972 WOGs and sliding events have been tagged for Nagano. I would assume Sapporo Dome for the ceremonies but I wonder if it would be possible to use the new ES Con Field for the ceremonies and divide the Sapporo Done into two arenas for ice hockey?

Speed Skating in Obihiro should be a safe bet, as well. No need for another oval in Hokkaido when there's one a mere 100 miles down the road.

I like your idea of using Sapporo dome as two individual venues. Capacity might even be sufficient to have Ice Hockey I and Figure Skating/Short Track in there. Makomanai could host Ice Hockey II and Tsukisamu Gymnasium might offer sufficient capacity for Curling. So indoor sports would be all set.

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On 12/29/2021 at 3:32 PM, munichfan said:

Speed Skating in Obihiro should be a safe bet, as well. No need for another oval in Hokkaido when there's one a mere 100 miles down the road.

I like your idea of using Sapporo dome as two individual venues. Capacity might even be sufficient to have Ice Hockey I and Figure Skating/Short Track in there. Makomanai could host Ice Hockey II and Tsukisamu Gymnasium might offer sufficient capacity for Curling. So indoor sports would be all set.

Obihiro only has a capacity of 1,500, far too small for an Olympics, but the oval at the stadium in Makomanai Park would be a suitable candidate especially given the fact the IOC is now open to the concept of speed skating being held outdoors again as evidenced by their encouraging of the Milan-Cortina organizers to use an existing athletics stadium for speed skating rather than an expensive renovation on an existing oval. 

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Would like to know who the "multiple sources with knowledge of the matter" are. Think the IOC would just love to lock this in, so they can then lock-in SLC for '34. And take a bit of a breather after that of trying to hand-pick hosts (summer & winter) for quite a while. 

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Of course it depends on the survey. Obviously, the IOC will be paying close attention to that. And if it passes, the IOC will be ecstatic & will continue to try & wrap this up. But if it doesn't pass, then SLC 2030 it is then. 

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5 minutes ago, FYI said:

Of course it depends on the survey. Obviously, the IOC will be paying close attention to that. And if it passes, the IOC will be ecstatic & will continue to try & wrap this up. But if it doesn't pass, then SLC 2030 it is then. 

That's how I see this. Vanouver came in handy for the IOC, too, creating a sense of urgency to put USOPC ans Salt Lake in a position where they are willing to accept 2030, given a Canadian Olympics might have pushed their efforts back to 2038 or 42.

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10 minutes ago, munichfan said:

That's how I see this. Vancouver came in handy for the IOC, too, creating a sense of urgency to put USOPC ans Salt Lake in a position where they are willing to accept 2030, given a Canadian Olympics might have pushed their efforts back to 2038 or 42.

This is probably what has nudged the USOC lately in being "more open to 2030", since before, their stance was clearly more in preference of 2034 (due to LA28 & sponsorship issues). But SLC is the one more in the 'sooner, rather than later' mode.

Plus, Vancouver also has their own public support problem (not to mention so does Barcelona, among other issues. And Ukraine is just a dumpster-fire at this time). So Sapporo is really the 'double' wildcard here.

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By the way, interesting choice to conduct their survey in March when really nothing would hold them from starting right now (or even back in 2021). They must have deep hope that a wave of nationalism and the wish to outdo China will swing this thing to their favour after Beijing.

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On 1/3/2022 at 7:09 PM, munichfan said:

By the way, interesting choice to conduct their survey in March when really nothing would hold them from starting right now (or even back in 2021). They must have deep hope that a wave of nationalism and the wish to outdo China will swing this thing to their favour after Beijing.

Holding it now or back in 2022 probably would've doomed the bid coming off the heels of Tokyo Olympics and that financial calamity. Waiting till March gives the I'd organizers a chance to engage the public on a grassroots level not to mention harness some feel good stories of Japan does well at Beijing in the medal count.

I still maintain it's going to be a tall order to get a majority of the public to back this thing though.

 

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In 2014, there was a poll when Sapporo was going after the 2026 Winter Olympics, before they abandoned the bid, & it showed 67% in support. Another poll was done in 2018, when the course shifted to the 2030 Winter Olympics instead, & a poll then showed 55% in support & 45% against. A similar poll last year, though, showed 50% against & 48% in support. 

So it seems that support has been slipping over the year. A former city council member says that the city would march on (no pun intended) if the latest survey in March didn't show majority support. But would the IOC still bite, though. And I don't think that they would. Their focus would immediately turn to a SLC 2030 deal then, IMO. So, here's hoping that the Sapporo survey passes, & then SLC can get 2034, to the IOC's & USOC's delight, but probably to SLC's vexing, though.  

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If there's no majority in favour in Sapporo, they will probably try to seal the deal with Salt Lake as quickly as possible. It's not like Sapporo couldn't do 2034, instead, anyways, if public opinion turns again a few years down the road.

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Oh, I agree. But there seems a couple on here that are under the notion, that if SLC were to get 2030, that’ll be “the end of the Winter Olympics as we know them”. That no one else would be interested going forward after that. How they come to that conclusion, is anyone’s guess.

But exactly, Sapporo could change their mind later (if they were not to want it now), after more time has passed after Tokyo 2020ne. I also think we could see France (& maybe another Western European country), if Paris 2024 & Milan 2026 go mostly smooth. I don’t think it’d be the dire predicament that some here like to predict if SLC does wind up with the 2030 Winter Olympics. 

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52 minutes ago, FYI said:

Oh, I agree. But there seems a couple on here that are under the notion, that if SLC were to get 2030, that’ll be “the end of the Winter Olympics as we know them”. That no one else would be interested going forward after that. How they come to that conclusion, is anyone’s guess.

But exactly, Sapporo could change their mind later (if they were not to want it now), after more time has passed after Tokyo 2020ne. I also think we could see France (& maybe another Western European country), if Paris 2024 & Milan 2026 go mostly smooth. I don’t think it’d be the dire predicament that some here like to predict if SLC does wind up with the 2030 Winter Olympics. 

How much of a possibility is to count for an spanish winter bid for 2034 if 2030 world cup bid succeed, or if they succed in 2030 is more plausible they will go for summer olympics, 2036?

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44 minutes ago, Chris_Mex said:

How much of a possibility is to count for an spanish winter bid for 2034 if 2030 world cup bid succeed, or if they succed in 2030 is more plausible they will go for summer olympics, 2036?

Spain does not have ski jumps or a sliding track or a speed skating oval. I just do not see a serious Spanish winter bid happen at any point.

2036 will be more plausible. Athletics are a huge issue for Madrid, though, and I would not count on them entering the Olympic bidding race, if they get the World Cup in 2030.

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2 hours ago, munichfan said:

Spain does not have ski jumps or a sliding track or a speed skating oval. I just do not see a serious Spanish winter bid happen at any point.

2036 will be more plausible. Athletics are a huge issue for Madrid, though, and I would not count on them entering the Olympic bidding race, if they get the World Cup in 2030.

Whatever they don't have, they can build it. I know we've been in a not build-it mood right now, but let's not forget that building the venues you don't have and use them later as training facilities is a plausible option for any olympic host.

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