Sapporo 2030: Give them an offer they can't refuse with no bids involved

[Quaker2001]

2 hours ago, Brekkie Boy said:

Whilst I'd prefer Sapporo with the talk of Nagano hosting at least the sliding events was there ever any move for Nagano to bid in their own right - surely their legacy from 1998 is more intact than those of Sapporo from 50 years ago?

Nagano prefecture has a population of about 2 million.  Hokkaido is well over 5 million.  So that region is likely better suited to put forth a bid.  And with Nagano less than 2 hours by bullet train from Tokyo, if they were going to focus the mountain venues there, they might as well have the indoor venues at Tokyo.

[yoshi]

39 minutes ago, Quaker2001 said:

they might as well have the indoor venues at Tokyo

Is that a ludicrous idea? They've got enough indoor venues, and if Milan and Cortina can work together then a similar Tokyo-Nagano setup doesn't sound crazy. Especially when you throw bullet trains into the equation. 

[jameswise]

On 6/22/2022 at 3:48 AM, yoshi said:

Is that a ludicrous idea? They've got enough indoor venues, and if Milan and Cortina can work together then a similar Tokyo-Nagano setup doesn't sound crazy. Especially when you throw bullet trains into the equation. 

I think it would be great if Tokyo and Nagano could work together to host the Olympics. The bullet trains would make it very easy for people to get around and I think it would be a great way to show off the best of what Japan has to offer.

[AustralianFan]

“The Promotion Committee for the Sapporo 2030 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games has inspected the Japanese city's facilities, as the bidding process starts to heat up.”

“Nine members of the bid team visited facilities - with 16 currently on the table to be used during the Games - including some of those used at the Olympics 60 years ago.”

 

[AustralianFan]

https://twitter.com/insidethegames/status/1558842102674505730?s=21&t=lwUqz5ztTOJRfdWs-5ya_w

 

[baron-pierreIV]

This is NEWS?  Members of the Sapporo Bid Committee are JUST VISITING their PROPOSED VENUES NOW?    WOW!! Have they been asleep for the LAST SIX months or so?  So, they AREN"T even familiar with their own venues that they have to announce that they're visiting them, FOUR months before the IOC hopes to name finalists by December?  Either they're extreme optimists, utterly stupid or really don't care it they get the bid or not.  Not encouraging at all -- this is just like ALL THE LIES & EXCUSES Frump is throwing out there about the discoveries at Mar-A-Lago.  I am just stunned!!   

[Nacre]

I can't understand why Japan would want the games, or why people think that giving them the winter games would somehow "make up" for the disaster of Tokyo 2020. It's like an arsonist offering to compensate someone for burning down their house by burning down their shed as well. How would losing $2 billion hosting the winter games compensate Japan for $25-30 billion in losses on the summer games?

3 hours ago, baron-pierreIV said:

Not encouraging at all -- this is just like ALL THE LIES & EXCUSES Frump is throwing out there about the discoveries at Mar-A-Lago.  I am just stunned!!   

Even as someone who thinks that Trump has the same view of ethics as Nietzche and Germany of the 1930's, I think that we should keep discussions of him out of this forum. There are plenty of other suitable forums for that discussion.

[StefanMUC]

19 hours ago, Nacre said:

I can't understand why Japan would want the games, or why people think that giving them the winter games would somehow "make up" for the disaster of Tokyo 2020. It's like an arsonist offering to compensate someone for burning down their house by burning down their shed as well. How would losing $2 billion hosting the winter games compensate Japan for $25-30 billion in losses on the summer games?

Even as someone who thinks that Trump has the same view of ethics as Nietzche and Germany of the 1930's, I think that we should keep discussions of him out of this forum. There are plenty of other suitable forums for that discussion.

Agree on the Sapporo subject.

On the other one: Maybe not in this particular thread, but I think if worst case still happens, he would be the one to open LA28. Let’s not forget that at least.

Now back to Sapporo: From my distant perspective it all seems like a done deal already because it would suit the IOC so very nicely as it could push SLC to 34, and Sapporo’s local politicians apparently know what to tell the IOC (those interesting…support polls for starters). But I really don’t get why anyone in Japan, after the Tokyo experience, would like any business with the Fencing 1976 crowd again so soon.

[iceman530]

Agreed.  We constantly preach about the IOC looking adverse to risk these days, so it is certainly interesting that they're full-court pressing Sapporo (at least on the face of things).  This absolutely looks like the IOC rolling the dice and instead of grassroots-boots-on-the-grounding it, They're going for the ole maskirovka razzle dazzle and checking boxes with vague terminology to show that indeed.....yes.......Sapporo supports the bid.  Its risky, if I wasnt a fan of the Olympics Id be supper angry about it, and Ive never hid my selfish intentions of hoping the IOC rams this through, but man what a high risk-high reward proposition.

[baron-pierreIV]

22 hours ago, Nacre said:

I can't understand why Japan would want the games, or why people think that giving them the winter games would somehow "make up" for the disaster of Tokyo 2020. It's like an arsonist offering to compensate someone for burning down their house by burning down their shed as well. How would losing $2 billion hosting the winter games compensate Japan for $25-30 billion in losses on the summer games?

Even as someone who thinks that Trump has the same view of ethics as Nietzche and Germany of the 1930's, I think that we should keep discussions of him out of this forum. There are plenty of other suitable forums for that discussion.

Disregarding your comment about my political mention- REJECT; I'll post what I want. 

Now on the larger subject of Tokyo 2020's losses, actually Japan did not lose $25-30 billion.  A lot of the cost of the, any, Ganes, goes to the infrastructure costs.  That is a long-term investment; not considered a p-or-losm item in a Games budget.  Where Tokyo and Beijing lost are in the gate receipts and, unfortunately, for the hospitality industry, their preps were also a loss.  But the cost for a village, new stadia, etc., are not cost items which a Games hopes to recover.  So I would guess the Tokyo COJO must've lost est. $550-600 million in returned gate receipts.  I don't know if the IOC or COJO / IOC's insurance helped mitigate those gate receipt losses.  The stadia, the Villages, the lifts the highways are there, regardless of whether the Games were a whooping success or a dismal failure.  

Summing up, it's not like Tokyo/Japan really lost $25-30 billion.  They did not.  If so, that probably would've strongly devalued the yen' but it did not.  

Edited August 16, 2022 by baron-pierreIV

[Nacre]

5 hours ago, baron-pierreIV said:

Now on the larger subject of Tokyo 2020's losses, actually Japan did not lose $25-30 billion.  A lot of the cost of the, any, Ganes, goes to the infrastructure costs.  That is a long-term investment; not considered a p-or-losm item in a Games budget. 

What city has "invested" $500 million on an aquatics center without the Olympics? There's no way that Japan would have spent that much money on a community recreation facility; the expensive palaces of sport are built because of the IOC's three week circus, not because of a long term investment in community swimming, horseback riding, archery, et al.

The IOC may not count the capital or security costs as part of the games budget. But they absolutely are part of the cost of the Olympics.

[baron-pierreIV]

20 minutes ago, Nacre said:

What city has "invested" $500 million on an aquatics center without the Olympics? There's no way that Japan would have spent that much money on a community recreation facility; the expensive palaces of sport are built because of the IOC's three week circus, not because of a long term investment in community swimming, horseback riding, archery, et al.

The IOC may not count the capital or security costs as part of the games budget. But they absolutely are part of the cost of the Olympics.

But you KNOW that going in. You KNOW that when you sign the Host City Contract.  Besides, it's not like Tokyo is little Quito.  I mean, it's the capital of the world's 3rd largest economy/richest country.  That is nothing for them.  They didn't HAVE to tear down the old Olympic Stadium; but they rejected the very expensive Hadid design and went for a simpler and cheaper edition.  But they did because they wanted state-of-the-art facilities. The venues from 1964 lasted Tokyo a good 60 years.  Who says the new stadia of 2020/1 will not last them another 60 years?  They can afford it,  

[Quaker2001]

On 8/14/2022 at 9:41 PM, Nacre said:

I can't understand why Japan would want the games, or why people think that giving them the winter games would somehow "make up" for the disaster of Tokyo 2020. It's like an arsonist offering to compensate someone for burning down their house by burning down their shed as well. How would losing $2 billion hosting the winter games compensate Japan for $25-30 billion in losses on the summer games?

Do you actually think Japan lost $25 billion on the Olympics?  If that was even a possibility, they wouldn't have gotten into this in the first place.  Even still, an economy the size of Japan's can withstand a financial hit.  The idea of going at it again is that maybe next time, there won't be a once in a century global pandemic and things can go more smoothly.  No doubt it's a major risk and sure, it's a little surprising enough people are behind it with the wounds of Tokyo 202One still a little fresh.  But asking a question like that with bad math means one would want the Olympics.

7 hours ago, StefanMUC said:

Now back to Sapporo: From my distant perspective it all seems like a done deal already because it would suit the IOC so very nicely as it could push SLC to 34, and Sapporo’s local politicians apparently know what to tell the IOC (those interesting…support polls for starters). But I really don’t get why anyone in Japan, after the Tokyo experience, would like any business with the Fencing 1976 crowd again so soon.

Obviously there's a lot of anyone's who think that getting back in bed with Bach (and/or whoever his successor may be) will be a worthwhile endeavor.  If you ask citizens, I'm sure they're not into it.  But for better or worse, they don't necessarily get to make those decisions here.  Sadly, the Olympics are all about large corporate profits these days rather than the will of a country's population.  If those folks think they can make money, they'll push ahead with the plan, no matter who they have to crush to get there

[Quaker2001]

1 hour ago, Nacre said:

What city has "invested" $500 million on an aquatics center without the Olympics? There's no way that Japan would have spent that much money on a community recreation facility; the expensive palaces of sport are built because of the IOC's three week circus, not because of a long term investment in community swimming, horseback riding, archery, et al.

The IOC may not count the capital or security costs as part of the games budget. But they absolutely are part of the cost of the Olympics.

How about $100 million?  In which case the answer to what you probably think is a rhetorical question is Budapest.  They built that arena in hopes of attracting a future Olympics.  Who knows if that will happen.  You also have a city like Rio that built the Joao Havalenge Stadium for $200 million after initial estimate were a fraction of that.

The problem isn't so much that the IOC demands these facilities as that no one seems to be able to keep costs in check.  And the narrative that these facilities serve only the purpose of hosting the Olympics and they're useless after isn't always the case.  When you have a city like Rio promising the world, then yes, they're going to be stuck with white elephants.  Doesn't have to be that way though if things are properly planned out and executed.  That's obviously much easier said than done, but that's what the IOC needs to look for.  Building things is not a bad thing if it's done with purpose.  It's when a city thinks they have to pour all this money into impressing on the world stage that it becomes a problem.

[StefanMUC]

Actually, the IOC does have demands that eventually lead to a spiral of unnecessary investment to impress first and foremost those around 100 people who get to vote on the bids. And after the vote, the IOC should be the first to check about promises made, including budget, but they never cared as long as a shiny world was created to polish up their image. At least in the past, but new norm will surely put an end to that 

[Nacre]

13 hours ago, Quaker2001 said:

Do you actually think Japan lost $25 billion on the Olympics?

It's hard to calculate exactly how much Japan lost, as we can see with the argument over whether capital costs should be included. But if you think all the ancillary factors like capital costs, debt servicing and opportunity costs matter, then I think the answer is essentially yes.

At any rate, I don't see any way that a Sapporo games would actually make money for Japan. Constructing no new venues is great, but they would still have to renovate older venues and spend at least $1 billion or more on security. If they break even on the operational costs, they should still lose $2 billion or more.

Edited August 16, 2022 by Nacre

[Quaker2001]

14 minutes ago, Nacre said:

It's hard to calculate exactly how much Japan lost, as we can see with the argument over whether capital costs should be included. But if you think all the ancillary factors like capital costs, debt servicing and opportunity costs matter, then I think the answer is essentially yes.

So in other words, if you twist and manipulate the data to include things that you want to include, then you get to the number you want.  No, sorry it doesn't work that way.

We're talking about the 3rd largest economy of any country on the planet, so I don't think we can talk much about opportunity cost as a major negative here.  Especially given the amount of public funding that came from Dentsu.  If the billions spent on the Olympics were allocated elsewhere, that additional funding isn't necessarily coming in.

If a Sapporo Olympics was looking at a $2 billion loss, of course they wouldn't do it.  Obviously though, they think they can make money off of it, at least when all the urban improvement is accounted for.  You can't look at that as an expense and pretend there's zero benefit from it after the Olympics leaves town.

[Nacre]

4 hours ago, Quaker2001 said:

So in other words, if you twist and manipulate the data to include things that you want to include, then you get to the number you want.  No, sorry it doesn't work that way.

My assumptions are:

1. Japan would not have built the sporting venues for the 2020/2021 games without the Olympics.
2. Olympic sporting venues provide less revenue than their ongoing maintenance and operational costs, so the funds they spent on the venues is effectively burned money and NOT an investment.
3. The official budget is manipulated to make government officials and the IOC look good, and omits both the security costs and major capital costs that are directly related to the Olympics. So to get the real budget you have to add those figures on top of the official budget.
4. Governments and private parties that take on debt have to pay interest on that debt.
5. Land (and other resources) that is allocated to sporting venues could have been used for something else that would have provided actual ROI for Tokyo and Japan.

If I am wrong about these assumptions then mea culpa.

EDIT: For #4, consider that Montreal ended up paying $1.5 billion in interest on a stadium with a construction cost of $1.5 billion in 2006 dollars (when they finally ended up paying off the debt).

Edited August 16, 2022 by Nacre

[baron-pierreIV]

4 hours ago, Nacre said:

EDIT: For #4, consider that Montreal ended up paying $1.5 billion in interest on a stadium with a construction cost of $1.5 billion in 2006 dollars (when they finally ended up paying off the debt).

But that was crazy Montreal, and before LA 1984 when the LAOOC and Peter Ueberroth taught the IOC a bookkeeping lesson or 2.  

Funny, I was thinking the other day of Montreal's Olympic Stadium and the new BC Place in Vancouver--two past Olympic venues with the MOST COMPLICATED retractable roof systems in the world.  Those 2 Canadian cities could not have picked any 2 MORE elaborate roof rigging than what they had--which is why Montreal Olympic ended up costing that much.  At least the US just imploded the Silverdome and didn't bother to resurrect a similar roof there.  

[Quaker2001]

On 8/16/2022 at 6:30 PM, Nacre said:

My assumptions are:

1. Japan would not have built the sporting venues for the 2020/2021 games without the Olympics.
2. Olympic sporting venues provide less revenue than their ongoing maintenance and operational costs, so the funds they spent on the venues is effectively burned money and NOT an investment.
3. The official budget is manipulated to make government officials and the IOC look good, and omits both the security costs and major capital costs that are directly related to the Olympics. So to get the real budget you have to add those figures on top of the official budget.
4. Governments and private parties that take on debt have to pay interest on that debt.
5. Land (and other resources) that is allocated to sporting venues could have been used for something else that would have provided actual ROI for Tokyo and Japan.

If I am wrong about these assumptions then mea culpa.

EDIT: For #4, consider that Montreal ended up paying $1.5 billion in interest on a stadium with a construction cost of $1.5 billion in 2006 dollars (when they finally ended up paying off the debt).

There some assumptions here that are true, but they're sorely lacking in nuance and context.  Case in point your comparison to Montreal.  Canada's GDP in 1976 was around $206 billion USD.  Japan's GDP now is over $5 trillion USD.  Much easier for them to absorb the cost of the Olympics relative to the country's GDP.  It's not like they're going into debt because they spent billions on the Olympics, especially when a lot of private funding was involved.

Which leads to the next important point.  The private party that provided the most funding was Dentsu.  In the news lately for the wrong reasons.  Do you really think they would have backed the Olympics if they were going to lose money off of it?  They have a lot of sway, so if Japan is going after another Olympics, chances are they're going to be strongly behind the efforts.  Whether or not the will of Japanese citizens is taken into account remains to be seen.  But sadly, as we know, the Olympics in recent years have been about enriching the IOC and large corporations.  So they're going to make a push for it.  They profit and benefit from the experience while often leaving the host city and country eholding the bag.  Regardless of what the actual expenditures are - which are always really hard to account for in full - someone is obviously profiting from the Olympics being held or else they wouldn't be held anymore.

#1, #2, and #5 have a point, but again it's a little misguided.  First off, and I know this may come as a shock to some on this forum, but the Olympics aren't the only thing sports facilities are constructed for.  It's well documented that sports stadiums rarely offer the kind of economic output they're often advertised for.  Doesn't stop them from being built anyway even as those involved evaluate the ROI.  Plus when you're talking about resources such as land or money, it's not like if Japan didn't spend however much on the Olympics that money and that land would have gone towards something more useful.  We did see New York use some of the pieces of its 2012 bid to spur on development for non-sports related purposes.  Doesn't always work out that way.  It shouldn't be the default assumption that Japan and Tokyo wouldn't have at some point built a new stadium or arenas.  Nor should it be an assumption that space could have been used for something useful.  If that was the case, why does any country bother bidding for the Olympics?  Japan did.  Maybe there are reasons for that you should account for, even if you're having trouble comprehending why they would bid, the pandemic-tainted outcome notwithstanding.  As if you think they flushed $30 billion down the toilet and got absolutely nothing in return for it.

[Nacre]

17 hours ago, Quaker2001 said:

  As if you think they flushed $30 billion down the toilet and got absolutely nothing in return for it.

They did get the prestige of hosting the Olympics, and sporting venues which can be used to host other events. 

Quibbling about exactly how much money Tokyo lost misses my point, though. However much Tokyo lost, Sapporo losing yet more money (hopefully only one or two billion dollars) doesn't in any way make Japan's prior losses whole. It does the opposite of that. It's like someone who spent too much money on their wedding trying to fix things by spending lavishly on a banquet for their first engagement.

If Sapporo wants to blow a few billion dollars on the pride and prestige of hosting the Olympics, then fine. But the argument that it would make up for the disaster of 2020/2021 is ridiculous.

Edited August 18, 2022 by Nacre

[baron-pierreIV]

And Japan's hosting large events, profitable or not, is also a one-upmanship game with China.  A smaller but still influential nation, I think Japan (w/ So. Lorea and Taiwan) want to remind the world that China, NoKor aren't the only game in town.  "China, if you can do one, we can do it just as well or even better than you can."  If that's a billion-dollar mesage; then so be it.  What's wealth for?  

[FYI]

On 8/15/2022 at 5:24 PM, StefanMUC said:

On the other one: Maybe not in this particular thread, but I think if worst case still happens, he would be the one to open LA28. Let’s not forget that at least.

Ugh, could you just imagine. All of the sudden he’d be claiming that California “is just great” after demonizing it (& other states that he didn’t agree with) for years, & further driveling that LA28 wouldn’t have happened without his efforts. 

[Palette86]

Quote

Arrest of former Tokyo Olympics executive has Sapporo worried

The arrest of former Tokyo Olympic organizing committee executive Haruyuki Takahashi and three others, including former Aoki Holdings Chairman Hironori Aoki, on suspicion of bribery is being watched with growing concern in Sapporo, which hopes to host the 2030 Winter Olympics and Paralympics Games.

Prosecutors believe Takahashi received a total of ¥51 million from apparel-maker Aoki in exchange for the company being named an official Tokyo Games supporter in the formal wear category. That meant it provided the jackets worn by Japanese athletes in the Olympics and Paralympics opening ceremonies and could use the Games' logos on its labels.

Japanese Olympic Committee President Yasuhiro Yamashita told reporters Wednesday that the arrest and bribery allegations were extremely regrettable if true — and indicated they could impact Sapporo.

“In order to succeed in winning the right to host the Sapporo 2030 Winter Olympics and Paralympics, we have to take into account the good points of the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics, as well as the bad points,” he said.

Worries within the JOC over local enthusiasm about the 2030 bid had already been growing before Takahashi’s arrest. Yamashita told a JOC news conference in June that building public support was key to the bid’s success.

A survey conducted by the city in March by mail, online and on the street showed that, depending on the survey method, between 52% and 65% of respondents indicated support for the bid effort. But between 26% and 38% were opposed

For the JOC, the opposition numbers were worrying.

“With the current rate of support among Sapporo and Hokkaido residents, winning will be difficult,” Yamashita said.

With Takahashi’s arrest and the bribery allegations now in the spotlight, Sapporo bid supporters have another reason to be concerned about public resistance. Keigo Iwata, head of the Sapporo 2030 Olympics and Paralympics Promotion Committee, told the Hokkaido Shimbun that the arrests are regrettable and called for the bid to proceed in a fair and transparent manner.

The timing of the arrests is of particular concern. Last month, the city kicked off a public awareness campaign aimed at increasing local support, and it’s slated to run until the end of September. International Olympic Committee President Thomas Bach has said that the organization wants to settle the final candidates for the 2030 bid by the end of this year and then make the official decision at an IOC meeting in Mumbai scheduled for May to June next year.

Sapporo is competing against Vancouver and Salt Lake City, Utah, for the 2030 Games.

The city had hoped to use the autumn months to increase the amount of public support for its vision for the Games, which it says will be sustainable given the use of existing facilities. A Sapporo Olympics would take place between Feb. 8 and 24, 2030, with about 2,900 athletes participating in 109 areas of competition. The Paralympic Games would take place between March 8 and 17, with 560 athletes taking part across 80 events.

Total costs for both are estimated by the city at between ¥280 billion ($2 billion) and ¥300 billion. But local residents opposed to the bid warn the final amount could be a lot higher. They note that in 2013, supporters of the Tokyo Games promised the cost would be about ¥734 billion, but that it ended up costing over ¥1.4 trillion.

“Cost overruns due to bribery and other scandals are common in past Olympics, including the Tokyo Olympics,” said Daisuke Takahashi, one of those leading the opposition to the bid. "There is no guarantee we won’t see the same thing happen to the Sapporo bid."

Date:2022/8/19

News source:The Japan Times

Link to this article:https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/08/19/national/tokyo-games-arrests-sapporo-concerns/

[Quaker2001]

On 8/18/2022 at 4:35 PM, Nacre said:

They did get the prestige of hosting the Olympics, and sporting venues which can be used to host other events. 

Quibbling about exactly how much money Tokyo lost misses my point, though. However much Tokyo lost, Sapporo losing yet more money (hopefully only one or two billion dollars) doesn't in any way make Japan's prior losses whole. It does the opposite of that. It's like someone who spent too much money on their wedding trying to fix things by spending lavishly on a banquet for their first engagement.

If Sapporo wants to blow a few billion dollars on the pride and prestige of hosting the Olympics, then fine. But the argument that it would make up for the disaster of 2020/2021 is ridiculous.

I'm still not sure what your point is.  No one is arguing that Sapporo is bidding for the Olympics because of what happened with Tokyo.  The 2 are not related to each other in that regard.  If people and corporations in Japan want to back a Sapporo bid, it's not because they're trying to make anything up from what happened with Tokyo.  We know this because they've been interested in bidding for awhile.  It didn't just gain steam because of the pandemic affected the Summer Olympics.

That all said, you're still missing the mark about why a city would choose to host an Olympics and what they get out of it.  It's not just for some pride and prestige and a couple of new buildings.  There are corporations (in the case of a bid in Japan, we know the #1 company involved) that will use it to fuel their business.  The sum total of an Olympics is that yes, there's a good chance they will spend more money than they bring in and that the burden is likely to fall on the government and the taxpayers.  But the IOC will make a profit and some of the businesses backing the Olympics - again, think Dentsu in Japan - will benefit from it.  That's why they're willing to go at it again.  Sadly, that's pretty much how the Olympics operate these days.. for corporate interests, the people be damned.