Lviv: is it still alive?

[iceman530]

I wonder how much it costs to literally mobilize a hundred thousand troops and fly them out to scare Ukraine every year.  That could be spent in so many other different ways.

[baron-pierreIV]

3 hours ago, iceman530 said:

I wonder how much it costs to literally mobilize a hundred thousand troops and fly them out to scare Ukraine every year.  That could be spent in so many other different ways.

It's a show for the eastern third of the country with high ethnic Russian citizens.  

[iceman530]

1 hour ago, baron-pierreIV said:

It's a show for the eastern third of the country with high ethnic Russian citizens.  

Its also a show of Putin saying "dont join NATO" to Ukraine, but that seems a pretty steep price just to do that.

I assume theyll all pack up again and show up again next year the exact same way, and itll be an annual tradition.  

Putin isnt going to do anything.  He knows full well a Ukraine invasion cost will be too severe.  That's how you get Iran levels of inflation due to SWIFT being cut off.  That and more "Cargo 200" being sent home in zinc coffins.

[iceman530]

Why Ukraine’s Olympic bid could be a very smart move - Atlantic Council

Here's a pretty good read by the Atlantic Council discussing some of the positives about a Lviv winter olympics

[stryker]

On 11/24/2021 at 10:02 PM, iceman530 said:

Why Ukraine’s Olympic bid could be a very smart move - Atlantic Council

Here's a pretty good read by the Atlantic Council discussing some of the positives about a Lviv winter olympics

Hey Lviv could still be a candidate for 2030 . . . as part of the Russian Federation. Putin gets a true double - Lviv 2030 and St. Petersburg 2036

[FYI]

Wonder if Peter Dickinson still thinks that it's a "smart move". 

[StefanMUC]

Seriously, Lviv (and Western Ukraine) is and never was of interest for Putin. He wants strategic access to the sea/Crimea and the Donbass resources. 
 

At most, he‘d break Ukraine in two and leave Western Ukraine with a puppet regime.

[iceman530]

On 1/24/2022 at 10:16 PM, StefanMUC said:

Seriously, Lviv (and Western Ukraine) is and never was of interest for Putin. He wants strategic access to the sea/Crimea and the Donbass resources. 
 

At most, he‘d break Ukraine in two and leave Western Ukraine with a puppet regime.

Thats a hell of an "at most".  Its the worst case "what if" threat (splitting country in two, land bridge not just to crimea, but to the Moldovan border including Odessa).  I do ultimately think this is brinkmanship on Russia's part, but obviously its enough of a nut check to make Ukraine a nonstarter for the foreseeable future.

[stryker]

On 1/26/2022 at 3:15 PM, iceman530 said:

Thats a hell of an "at most".  Its the worst case "what if" threat (splitting country in two, land bridge not just to crimea, but to the Moldovan border including Odessa).  I do ultimately think this is brinkmanship on Russia's part, but obviously its enough of a nut check to make Ukraine a nonstarter for the foreseeable future.

The U.S. Embassy is drawing down personnel and advising Americans to leave as soon as possible. This is much more than simple brinkmanship.

If Russia wants to occupy all of Ukraine they are more than capable.

[iceman530]

Militarily?  Yes (at least initially, theyll be hard pressed to hold that territory in an insurgency with US/NATO given weapons).  The winter is unusually warm and Russian commanders would be praying for a freeze.  Their tracked vehicles are in for a hard slog through the mud if not.  

Economically? No, ruble is gravitating towards 80 again.  Give them the SWIFT gun to the head, and they're done.  

Again, it sure makes Ukraine a non-starter for the games if this is to be an annual dance between the two sides.  

 

[FYI]

Ukraine was always a non-starter anyway, even before this whole mess started. It's not like any of this should be of any big surprise, since it's happened before. It was always in the back-burner, & one of a few main factors which made any Ukraine proposal very risky at best, nonetheless.

[munichfan]

On 1/27/2022 at 11:08 PM, stryker said:

If Russia wants to occupy all of Ukraine they are more than capable.

The Capability to conquer is one thing, the capability to hold is another. Ukraine taken by force would make up almost a quarter of the Russian population and large chunks of the Ukrainian population would be severely hostile towards Moscow.

22 minutes ago, FYI said:

Ukraine was always a non-starter anyway, even before this whole mess started.

And it will be as long as it's stuck between a Eurasian future the majority does not support and a European future which Russia will make sure to never come to fruition.

[iceman530]

4 hours ago, munichfan said:

The Capability to conquer is one thing, the capability to hold is another.

Bingo.  Russia has the numbers to conquest.  Theyre going to need 3-4 times that to hold, which means conscripts would be used with 100 percent certainty.  And the more there are, the more targets for insurgency.  The more Cargo 200, the more protests back home.  

[BigVic]

Won't happen at all. 

[iceman530]

I hope Lviv is literally alive next week.  At any sense of the word.  Just, alive.......not Olympics discussion, just.......alive.

[iceman530]

looks like theyre trying to keep it alive.  

And somehow, Lviv is still alive in general.  Maybe Putin indeed is having second thoughts on this?  Is this going to be an annual dance?  

[Lord David]

Even with no loom of an impending war, what does Lviv have? A ceremonies stadium, the ski jumps, the ski resorts, an unfinished arena, maybe a smaller arena? And then what, they'll be having to build everything else?

[munichfan]

The ski jumps lack a big hill and have been overgrown by forest for quite some time. There is not a single indoor venue in Lviv that even remotely meets Olympic standards. And as far as I know, no Ukrainian ski resorts comes close to the 800m vertical needed for the downhill. So really, it's just the ceremonies venue.

[iceman530]

Eff Russia.  May Putin die slowly.

[Sir Rols]

1 hour ago, iceman530 said:

Eff Russia.  May Putin die slowly.

Indeed.

But sh!t. I’m feeling for the Ukrainians. Who are now facing likely a puppet regime forced on them, and a concomitant ramp up of repression. I can’t see that Russia can ever win their hearts and minds now.  

[iceman530]

Just now, Sir Rols said:

Indeed.

But sh!t. I’m feeling for the Ukrainians. Who are now facing likely a puppet regime forced on them, and a concomitant ramp up of repression. I can’t see that Russia can ever win their hearts and minds now.  

I hope not, god I hope not.  This has the hallmarks of a forced Russia-Belarus-Ukraine union

[AliciasBlade]

Given the current circumstances, Lviv 2030 shouldn’t happen at all.

[FYI]

It's not like Lviv 2030 was ever a realistic option to begin with (even though some were always advocates). And yes, it's the current circumstances there that made it a null & void option. However, this is not something that just unfolded overnight (well, actually it did), but the *constant threat* was always there, lingering in the background for quite some time, because you-know-who is just desperate to have "the old Empire" back, no matter what. That aspect alone, was/is enough to make the IOC run the other way. 

[Brekkie Boy]

God, this thread title reads very differently today.  

[iceman530]

On 2/25/2022 at 1:14 PM, Brekkie Boy said:

God, this thread title reads very differently today.  

Its quite frightening how this title reads now, thats for sure.  Totally different context.  

 

Ill tell you what, I would want a Lviv 2030 Olympics for one reason and one reason only.  Just to see the SPECTACULAR middle finger to Russia that the ceremony would likely give.  Im absolutely certain there would be a sizable portion dedicated to the Russian invasion and reviving after that.  I know it wont happen, but the shade level would be spectacular.