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Now, with 2032 pretty much a done deal and the IOC selecting hosts a decade in advance seemingly becoming the new norm it can't be too early to discuss 2036.

With 2028 in America and 2032 in the Asia-Pacific this should be Europe's to lose. So who do you think might make it to the finish line?

The only countries that make sense economically are probably Spain, the UK and Russia. 2024 will rule out Paris. Rome might be a serious contender, but I doubt they will go for another Olympics that soon after Milano Cortina. As for Germany, the 1936 centennial along with major organisational issues will rule them out. Budapest will most likely enter the race, but I don't see that happening unless none of the stated decide to throw their hat in.

As of now, the doping scandal is still too close to dare award them another games. In a few years' time, that might change, though. The most likely option for me though is Spain and the UK dividing the next major events among them. So, if Spain will get FIFA World Cup 2030, London might be the option of choice. If the British isles get the World Cup, Madrid will likely get 2036. IOC seems to be fine with 40k capacity so unlike the 2020 bid, the Wanda Metropolitano plan might actually come to fruition.

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  • 2 weeks later...

It's nice people are suggesting London again, but I can't see it so soon after 2012.

Madrid feels like a city that could be tempted back but I think they got severe bidding fatigue. They feel like a city who'd be ideal for conferring preferred bidding status on so they won't have to be put through another brutal vote. If I were the IOC I'd be pushing for this to happen.

Budapest, I can see it. They were the forgotten child of the 2024/28 bid process but they did hang on until the end unlike every other bid besides Paris and LA. They're quietly building some impressive facilities and the IOC won't care about Orban.

Germany seems to be at odds with the IOC for all sorts of reasons and the Germans have never seem to have their ducks in order anyway (thinking all the way back to Leipzig 2012, then various aborted Winter and Summer bids, now the argument with the IOC over 2032). But I'd never rule them out.

Italy...I don't know what to think. Maybe my brain is jaded reading about what AS Roma have been put through with their new stadium plans, but I can't see the IOC wanting to work with Rome's current administration.

Are we going to rule out Istanbul? Perennial past bidders, not an impossibility imo.

Please not Russia.

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On 3/13/2021 at 6:38 PM, Rob. said:

Are we going to rule out Istanbul? Perennial past bidders, not an impossibility imo.

 

IMO At this point Turkey more likely to win Winter bid through Erzurum instead of Summer bids elsewhere lol

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What does Cairo/Northern Africa have to do with the “next European host”? But regardless, Cairo (as idyllic as it would be) is actually a hugely congested, corrupted & polluted mess (makes Beijing actually seem like a clean gem in comparison). And besides, if the IOC was actually interested in that part of the world, Istanbul is really the only realistic option, despite Erdogan (& a good portion of the city is technically in Europe, & also very picturesque). 

As far as the ‘next’ European host; still not convinced about Budapest, despite being another idyllic place. The IOC may not care about Orban, but that would only be if it’s in the IOC’s best interest. But I don’t see that at this time with them. Hence, Budapest was interested in 2032 (& still pledges to go on), but the IOC told them, & at least half a dozen other cities - “thanks but no thanks. We already have our ‘preferred candidate’ for that year”. Hungary is also a country of barely 10 million. I know Greece’s is roughly the same, but that selection was mainly for nostalgic & historical reasons. And even they still greatly struggled to finally deliver those Games in the end.  

Madrid after being so tenacious, does seem like they’ve gotten cold feet now. Maybe they finally realized that it’s probably not in the cards for them (but they never realized, either, that their timing was also off, being still too soon, at the time, after Barcelona). But it’s still not impossible (just look at Brisbane). They should probably try again for 2036.

Considering Germany’s tumultuous past bids (or not, in some cases), I see that perhaps the “Rhine-Ruhr” region is their only best shot now, with perhaps being the most receptive to an Olympic bid. They need to give it another go. And I’m sure if all the boxes were checked in such a proposal, the IOC would pounce on it, like they did with Brisbane.

If it not for Milan 2026 Winter Olympics, I’d said that they would be a perfect candidate for the Summer Olympics. But since Milan is hosting 2026, that puts a wrench in that, at least for a couple of decades anyway. Rome seems to be a slippery slope now. I think their last chance was for 2004, when they lost to Athens.

Russia probably would be Moscow or St. Petersburg. But the IOC I’m sure would want to stay far away for now, unless they are left with a “big douche & turd sandwich”. :lol: As far as England, I remember reading an article a couple of years ago about a possible London 2036 bid. Is there no longer talk about that over there? But also, what about trying again with Manchester or Birmingham, or those two in a “joint” effort? I wouldn’t rule that out anymore, again, seeing that Brisbane’s/SEQ coronation is virtually certain at this point. So the IOC can’t use their ‘mega capitals’ BS anymore. They’re already setting a precedent.

Which also brings me to (& this would be going off in a tangent a bit, but someone else already did mention Africa :D), but when/if the time comes to finally make that last (continental) frontier (south) African journey, Durban can no longer be dissed as, “but, but it’s not South Africa’s ‘premier’ city”. That went out the window now with Brisbane. Because all the reasons why the IOC is going to choose Brisbane, also applies to Durban, i.e. the weather during July/August, many sport venues already in place, plus the all important Olympic stadium is already there in waiting! 

As far as anywhere else in Europe, Amsterdam? Stockholm? Copenhagen? Vienna, Warsaw? All those seem to be huge maybes at this point. In particular, the Scandinavian cities. They never seem to want anything to do with the Olympics. I was actually surprised when Stockholm/Are actually made it to a vote.

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If the IOC really don't care too much about one-city-ness anymore, I wonder if the Netherlands could make a whole-country bid work. The country is small, and densely packed - the western side between Amsterdam, Utrecht, Den Haag and Rotterdam almost feels like one large city-region already and I'm sure most sports would have an existing venue of some kind somewhere in the country. If the Amsterdam Olympic Stadium is too small now, there's surely an Eredivisie football club somewhere that could use a new ground, and their transport system is far more developed than Brisbane already - I don't know how far the Sunshine Coast is from Brisbane in time, but a 2-hour trip from Utrecht in most directions will land you either at the sea or well into another country. One hour would get you to the vast majority of the Dutch population centres. If the IOC is serious about a new model, it must be worth a look. 

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Added because I can't edit - the Dutch government seem quite keen on reducing tourist numbers in Amsterdam itself, and on promoting the rest of the country, so I would imagine any bid would be focused on the south, around Rotterdam and Den Haag - so perhaps if the IOC overcome their aversion to multi national bids, they could even get Antwerp involved?

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You can actually compare the big area from Amsterdam to The Hague quite well to the Rhine-Ruhr region, both in dimensions and in population and facilities.

They could probably host with little preparation work (if there’s a political and public appetite).

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I think Europe's prospects for 2036 will hinge largely on how fast Europe emerges from the coronavirus recession. London seems the best bet at this point. Normally, I would agree 2036 is too soon after 2012 but given the IOC's targeted approach and the fact that London has much of the essential infrastructure already in place, it's a cost-feasible option. Many of the venues from 2012 would need minor touch up. The challenging ones would be a new Olympic Village and an aquatics center. For the OV, I would assume there will be a need for affordable housing somewhere. If not, perhaps London could adopt an approach being used by Birmingham for the 2022 CWGs replacing one athletes' village with three existing sites. It's certainly more cost effective. London also has the Olympic Stadium that plagues so many other bids though if West Ham decides to purchase the stadium outright and renovate it then that option is no longer on the table.

I have a hard time seeing either Spain or Italy mounting a bid given their economies were tanking under debt before Covid now both of them are incurring massive amounts of debt fighting the pandemic that neither nation will ever be able to pay off. The debt will have to be forgiven and if the banks holding that debt are going to survive, the EU will have to guarantee it. Italy is already searching for cost cutting measures for the 2026 WOGs (they are considering an outdoor athletics stadium for speed skating rather than constructing a new indoor oval) and I doubt that will be the last change to the plan.

I like the idea of a country-wide bid from the Netherlands, but if the Dutch can't find the finances for a European Games, how are they going to fund the Olympics. It's a shame because for a country like the Netherlands or Belgium for that matter to host a SOGs, it has to be a country-wide bid much like I think a WOGs bid would have to be country-wide for Switzerland or Austria.

I had hopes that Germany's regional multi-city bid would gain more traction but the the threat of a referendum derailing it as happened with Munich seems to hang over Germany every time the Olympics comes up. I think that referendum possibility is one, if not the main reason, the IOC didn't give the bid more consideration for 2032.

I could see Russia with Moscow or St. Petersburg in the mix as by 2036 the doping scandals will have subsided.

Forget Athens until the bicentennial of the SOGs. 2004 practically bankrupted the country.

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  • 2 weeks later...

agree with much of what has been said.  Madrid and London seem to have a good inside track if they want it.

The next tier is Budapest, Istanbul, and St. Petersburg if those fall off........probably in that order.  I'd love to see a games in St. Petersburg, but again, there would have to be a completely headspinning about of candidates dropping off to take that bid seriously given what Russia has been slapped around with.  

Istanbul feels like it will eventually get there in my lifetime, I am sure it will.  Just not in the immediate future.  It will be a constant "in case" candidate as well if the summer games get soured on.  

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