Moved 2022 before its to late.

[Nacre]

The Japanese are losing interest in hosting the games anyway. For example:

https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h00780/

https://nypost.com/2020/07/20/japanese-people-want-no-part-of-2021-olympics-poll/

I doubt that the Japanese people would mind saving a huge sum of money during a prolonged economic contraction by cancelling the games. It's the politicians like Abe and Yuriko Koike who need to save face and keep the Olympics alive. There would presumably be little appetite for a pointless insult to China over something that the majority of Japanese want given the current reality of COVID and the Japanese economy.

Edited September 8, 2020 by Nacre

[REDWHITEBLUE24]

https://www.macaubusiness.com/rights-groups-urge-ioc-to-strip-beijing-of-2022-winter-olympics/

[REDWHITEBLUE24]

10 hours ago, Nacre said:

The Japanese are losing interest in hosting the games anyway. For example:

https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h00780/

https://nypost.com/2020/07/20/japanese-people-want-no-part-of-2021-olympics-poll/

I doubt that the Japanese people would mind saving a huge sum of money during a prolonged economic contraction by cancelling the games. It's the politicians like Abe and Yuriko Koike who need to save face and keep the Olympics alive. There would presumably be little appetite for a pointless insult to China over something that the majority of Japanese want given the current reality of COVID and the Japanese economy.

Will the IOC go bankrupt having to refund all the 2021 tv broadcast and sponership money.

 

 

[REDWHITEBLUE24]

Along with Italy pulling out of hosting 2026.

[Quaker2001]

15 hours ago, Nacre said:

The Japanese are losing interest in hosting the games anyway. For example:

https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h00780/

https://nypost.com/2020/07/20/japanese-people-want-no-part-of-2021-olympics-poll/

I doubt that the Japanese people would mind saving a huge sum of money during a prolonged economic contraction by cancelling the games. It's the politicians like Abe and Yuriko Koike who need to save face and keep the Olympics alive. There would presumably be little appetite for a pointless insult to China over something that the majority of Japanese want given the current reality of COVID and the Japanese economy.

If Japanese people want to see the Olympics cancelled at this point, I'm sure it's more about the virus than it is about economic concerns.  The problem is that the country will have spent all this time and money and then won't see the windfall of having the Olympics actually held.  That's not saving money.. at this point, there's more money to make than there is to spend and otherwise it's for nothing.  So yes, of course politicians will be interested in pushing forward or else what was all the effort for these past 7 year?  And really much longer than that considering Tokyo had originally gone after the 2016 games.

[Quaker2001]

5 hours ago, REDWHITEBLUE24 said:

https://www.macaubusiness.com/rights-groups-urge-ioc-to-strip-beijing-of-2022-winter-olympics/

Gee, can't tell you how shocking it is to see a site called Macau Business would highlight an anti-China letter sent to the IOC.  Allow me to express just how stunned I am at that development.  And how little the IOC is likely to care, because they're the IOC.

[Quaker2001]

5 hours ago, REDWHITEBLUE24 said:

Will the IOC go bankrupt having to refund all the 2021 tv broadcast and sponership money.

5 hours ago, REDWHITEBLUE24 said:

Along with Italy pulling out of hosting 2026.

Dude.. stop with this nonsense.  How or why would Italy pull out of hosting?  Do you understand how these contracts with the host cities work?  I don't think you do.

No, the IOC will not go bankrupt.  They have more protections against a cancellation than host city does.  A lot of the language allows the IOC to blame Tokyo and Japan on the failure to deliver an Olympics, even though we all know it's the fault of the pandemic.  The IOC will obviouisly take a huge financial hit, but it's not likely to result in bankruptcy.

[REDWHITEBLUE24]

1 hour ago, Quaker2001 said:

Dude.. stop with this nonsense.  How or why would Italy pull out of hosting?  Do you understand how these contracts with the host cities work?  I don't think you do.

No, the IOC will not go bankrupt.  They have more protections against a cancellation than host city does.  A lot of the language allows the IOC to blame Tokyo and Japan on the failure to deliver an Olympics, even though we all know it's the fault of the pandemic.  The IOC will obviouisly take a huge financial hit, but it's not likely to result in bankruptcy.

Denver pulled out of hosting 1976 - if savings to pay for the virus are needed 2026 will be one of things they get rid of.

[REDWHITEBLUE24]

1 hour ago, Quaker2001 said:

Gee, can't tell you how shocking it is to see a site called Macau Business would highlight an anti-China letter sent to the IOC.  Allow me to express just how stunned I am at that development.  And how little the IOC is likely to care, because they're the IOC.

They might care if they lose the likes of the USA, Canada, UK and Japan.

[Nacre]

10 hours ago, Quaker2001 said:

If Japanese people want to see the Olympics cancelled at this point, I'm sure it's more about the virus than it is about economic concerns.  The problem is that the country will have spent all this time and money and then won't see the windfall of having the Olympics actually held.  That's not saving money.. at this point, there's more money to make than there is to spend and otherwise it's for nothing.  So yes, of course politicians will be interested in pushing forward or else what was all the effort for these past 7 year?  And really much longer than that considering Tokyo had originally gone after the 2016 games.

Cutting the cost of providing security, hospitality to athletes and officials, transporting people, et al absolutely would save them money. Of course it would also deny them access to the revenue from broadcasting funds, and in the unlikely chance that fans were able to attend then to ticket sales as well. The question is whether the television revenue would exceed the costs.

In 2012 the security costs were $720 million, and the IOC's total contribution was $910 million. So the money the IOC kicked in barely covered the security costs alone. Japan's share of the broadcasting revenue is not going to cover all of the expenses of hosting the games.

It is a classic example of the sunk cost fallacy to say that the construction and administrative costs Japan has already incurred justify pushing forward with yet more money-wasting in the future. 

Does this mean that Japan should cancel the games? No. But the reason to continue with them is not economic. Economically Japan is screwed either way, and a bit more screwed if they go forward with hosting in 2021 than they would be if the games were canceled- especially if they can't sell tickets.

[Quaker2001]

21 hours ago, REDWHITEBLUE24 said:

Denver pulled out of hosting 1976 - if savings to pay for the virus are needed 2026 will be one of things they get rid of.

Has there been any hint whatsoever that Italy is considering pulling out of 2026 because they need to save money?  Or is that a theory you completely pulled out of your ass to pose as a hypothetical.

Yes, Denver pulled out of 1976.  What's your point?  There's a pretty detailed backstory behind that decision and how it went down.  Folks here tend to forget that and just bring it up as a thing that happened.  No context.  Just "hey, this thing happened 50 years ago, so let's use that as an excuse to push a dumb idea I have that it could happen here"

If you have any articles or stories to share that Italy is even considering pulling out of 2026, you let us know.  Until then, enough with this nonsensical idea

[Quaker2001]

21 hours ago, REDWHITEBLUE24 said:

They might care if they lose the likes of the USA, Canada, UK and Japan.

There's another "if" right there.  Yes, it's possible that a number of major nations might have something to say with regards to an Olympics in China.  But again, let's pump the brakes on them losing the likes of all those nations just because a few politicians are hinting that it may happen.

[Quaker2001]

12 hours ago, Nacre said:

Cutting the cost of providing security, hospitality to athletes and officials, transporting people, et al absolutely would save them money. Of course it would also deny them access to the revenue from broadcasting funds, and in the unlikely chance that fans were able to attend then to ticket sales as well. The question is whether the television revenue would exceed the costs.

In 2012 the security costs were $720 million, and the IOC's total contribution was $910 million. So the money the IOC kicked in barely covered the security costs alone. Japan's share of the broadcasting revenue is not going to cover all of the expenses of hosting the games.

It is a classic example of the sunk cost fallacy to say that the construction and administrative costs Japan has already incurred justify pushing forward with yet more money-wasting in the future. 

Does this mean that Japan should cancel the games? No. But the reason to continue with them is not economic. Economically Japan is screwed either way, and a bit more screwed if they go forward with hosting in 2021 than they would be if the games were canceled- especially if they can't sell tickets.

Don't agree with that.  It's not as much of a sunk cost fallacy as you probably want to think.  How much money has already been spent to stage the games?  Let's say hypothetically that security costs for the Olympics are $1 billion.  That's not all operating costs for the games themselves.  A lot of that money likely has already been spent.  So Japan wouldn't be saving $1 billion on security costs if the games were cancelled.  The actual savings would be much less than that.  That goes for a lot of other areas that were specific to games operations since the postponement didn't occur until March.

We know the delay is going to cost a lot of money.  But then the return on investment here is going to be pretty close to zero.  Getting something is better than nothing, even if there will be costs involved.  So I disagree that this is not an economic decision.  If you're looking at revenue gains/losses in the short term from the Olympics, then that's not thinking big picture.  And yes, if they can't get foreigners to come to Japan to attend the games and buy tickets and spend money at hotels and restaurants, that's an issue.  Part of the investment in an Olympics though is part of long-term planning.  Not in the same way that cities could use the Olympics as an urban renewal project, but again, spending extra money now could potentially pay off in the long term as opposed to having spent billions on the Olympics with nothing to show for it.

The decision to continue goes beyond economics, but there are economic reasons to continue if you're trying to look beyond 2021.

[Nacre]

Japan spent roughly $9.6 billion on the Olympics by the end of 2019. Unfortunately I can't find data since then. But with expected total expenses of about $25-30 billion they should still be able to save a large sum of money by canceling the games - far more than the IOC's contributions.

It is of course the fear of -as you put it- "having spend billions on the Olympics with nothing to show for it" that is motivating Japanese politicians to continue with the games, costs be damned. But if they are not able to host the games safely with fans, it will simply be throwing yet more money away.

[Quaker2001]

2 hours ago, Nacre said:

Japan spent roughly $9.6 billion on the Olympics by the end of 2019. Unfortunately I can't find data since then. But with expected total expenses of about $25-30 billion they should still be able to save a large sum of money by canceling the games - far more than the IOC's contributions.

It is of course the fear of -as you put it- "having spend billions on the Olympics with nothing to show for it" that is motivating Japanese politicians to continue with the games, costs be damned. But if they are not able to host the games safely with fans, it will simply be throwing yet more money away.

Japan has spent over ¥1 trillion on Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics so far, audit reveals

By the end of 2018, not 2019.  About one quarter of the total sum spent came in 2018, so we can assume they spent a lot more in 2019.  I figure by the time the pandemic hit, they had to have spent at least $15 billion if the number kept ramping up.  So it's a much higher percentage of the total in the budget.  Yes, as I put it, that's a lot of money to spend with nothing in return, so that's probably a risk they need to take to keep pushing forward rather than to throw in the towel.

Again, look at this through a wider lens, one that doesn't just view this from the standpoint of the Japanese economy.  Think about all the entities and businesses with a stake in these Olympics.  What happens to them and the money they invested if the Tokyo OCOG were to cut their losses and say it's not worth it?  There's a lot of people and corporations involved with these Olympics.  We know the relationship between the IOC and the host city often puts more of the risk and less of the reward on the hosts, but that being the case, they still have an obligation to deliver.  

So yea, if you make this a macroeconomic issue, it might save money in the short term to cancel the Olympics.  But would that be a smart long term economic decision, especially if you make it about the microeconomics of all the entities with business interests in the Olympics and how badly they would be hurt if they didn't happen next summer

[mountainboarder_530@yahoo.]

This Tokyo - Beijing sequence of the games are going to be crucial for the IOC.  If they manage to pull it off, they can hang their hat on adversity and being able to respond to a crisis like this.  They MUST have at least Japan work, because there is at best a 50/50 shot of the beijing olympics going down without a boycott of north america and europe

[REDWHITEBLUE24]

13 hours ago, mountainboarder_530@yahoo. said:

This Tokyo - Beijing sequence of the games are going to be crucial for the IOC.  If they manage to pull it off, they can hang their hat on adversity and being able to respond to a crisis like this.  They MUST have at least Japan work, because there is at best a 50/50 shot of the beijing olympics going down without a boycott of north america and europe

Could they survive if they lose all that money.

 

If Trump wins the USA might not even be in 2024 if he pulls USOC out of the IOC.

[Quaker2001]

19 hours ago, mountainboarder_530@yahoo. said:

This Tokyo - Beijing sequence of the games are going to be crucial for the IOC.  If they manage to pull it off, they can hang their hat on adversity and being able to respond to a crisis like this.  They MUST have at least Japan work, because there is at best a 50/50 shot of the beijing olympics going down without a boycott of north america and europe

Meh.  If Tokyo gets goes, that's more a credit to Tokyo than it is to the IOC.  What happens with Beijing will probably reflect more on the IOC since they chose China as the host (which is largely their fault in the first place for scaring off other prospective hosts) and how everyone handles increasing political tensions.  Either way, the next 3 hosts area already locked in and they're all more traditional Western nations without a lot of question marks.

6 hours ago, REDWHITEBLUE24 said:

Could they survive if they lose all that money.

If Trump wins the USA might not even be in 2024 if he pulls USOC out of the IOC.

Yes, they'll survive.  They have a reserve of cash on hand, so they'll be able to weather that storm and it's largely Japan that will be hurt by a cancellation moreso than the IOC.  But that will be an issue for the future, especially with Sapporo in the mix to host a Winter Olympics, so who knows what their attitude will be if Tokyo doesn't happen.

As for the USA.. Donald Trump does not have the power to pull the USOC out of the IOC.  He may think he does and certainly could (and probably will) attempt to force their hand.  But again, if he has any business interests in LA2028, hopefully someone gets in his ear and tells him what an awful idea that is.  Because even as persuasive as he is to his cult of followers, he'll have a hard time convincing the rest of the world why that would be justified.

[REDWHITEBLUE24]

I don't think they will be many politicians in the UK or USA not in favour of a boycott - and it be the same in most western countries - both the left and right hate China atm.

 

[olympikfan]

Politicians could also used that China will be unsafe for athletes. So China has over 85,000 cases and over 4000 deaths Covid (pure BS!!!!!). Trump already said that re elected  he will take on China. So He could get votes on the fact that many are pissed at China for lying  to the world and the biggest cover up in the 21 century. How will the IOC mark the one year countdown? Does any expect that Covid will be gone by 2022?

[StefanMUC]

The latest headache for the IOC will be Iran, after the wrestler got executed today. There, the US could put pressure on Bach to take action more easily and likely than against China. 
 

If Iran gets expelled, the IOC can present itself as guardian of human rights and create a PR spin for Beijing. Of course, they also still let Lukashenko run the Belarus NOC.

[Quaker2001]

6 hours ago, REDWHITEBLUE24 said:

I don't think they will be many politicians in the UK or USA not in favour of a boycott - and it be the same in most western countries - both the left and right hate China atm.

Most politicians will have the good sense not to get involved.  99% of them won't have an opinion on whether or not to boycott.  You need to get off this assumption that this is going to be a main priority for them and that somehow a large groundswell of people will tell the USOPC to boycott.  Again, if it's Trump in the White House, we know a lot of his constituents will follow his lead.  But even then, "the United States hates China" is not enough to lead to a boycott.  Especially since the USOPC, unlike almost every other country's NOC, is not funded by the government.  Easier for something like that to happen in the UK where the government is backing them.  A boycott needs to have reason and purpose behind it.  To that point..

6 hours ago, olympikfan said:

Politicians could also used that China will be unsafe for athletes. So China has over 85,000 cases and over 4000 deaths Covid (pure BS!!!!!). Trump already said that re elected  he will take on China. So He could get votes on the fact that many are pissed at China for lying  to the world and the biggest cover up in the 21 century. How will the IOC mark the one year countdown? Does any expect that Covid will be gone by 2022?

Covid is not going to be gone.  Ever.  But hopefully in time we're able to manage it better which will allow for an event like the Olympics to happen.

What exactly is going to be voted upon?  I think you skipped over that part.  Yes, China lied about the virus, but somehow I doubt that's going to be a safety issue.  As if China would let people from all over the world come to Beijing and then pretend like they're not directly responsible for spreading it around the world.  Like 2008, they'll sanitize everything about the city and the country to put on a show for the world.  So safety won't be an issue.

And there probably won't be a 1 year countdown, considering that come February 2021, the next Olympics on the calendar will be Tokyo, not Beijing.  So they don't get the benefit of the usual lead up since that spotlight will belong to Japan.  Little bit of a comeuppance for China for unleashing this plague on the world

[REDWHITEBLUE24]

A lot of politicians are very concerned by the Uyghurs and Hong Kong so not hard for them to publicly pushing for boycotts. I can comfortably say many more than 1% will have a view as it gets nearer and further up the agenda.

 

 

[REDWHITEBLUE24]

And for example the letter last week got mentioned on BBC News broadcasts.

[mountainboarder_530@yahoo.]

Just think, in a parallel universe there are posters on this messageboard saying "oh thank god we didn't pick China".  I know there were a few whispers (not blowing my own horn, but I was one) about the political repercussions coming to a head as long as a year ago warning about China boiling over, and here we are.  The situation is all a sudden absolutely that serious..

Just red-teaming it, if Almaty got awarded, I wonder what we would be concerned about?  The Tenge dropping because of oil prices would have certainly been one.  The surprise transition of power would have been another (though that went surprisingly well).  Sure, there have been small protests against the government, and I am also sure it would have been slightly embarrassing, but again, we would have at least said "well.........at least theyre not running literal concentration camps like China", because that is the standard all a sudden.  It would have been fun for me to watch as an urban planning and the like is a huge hobby of mine and I would have loved to see how it played out in Almaty.