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13 hours ago, Quaker2001 said:

Yes, Trump may throw a temper tantrum(p), but he doesn't have that kind of power.  And someone I doubt he wants to napalm business interests in Southern California because that's going to make for one hell of a mess with 2028 with the contracts that exist on both sides.  I don't doubt that he may try to do something ridiculous like that, but it doesn't mean he would succeed.

That's absurd that US athletes should think they can't go to 2022.  Again.. why?  What would American athletes not competing in China accomplish?  Would China suddenly be friendlier with Hong Kong as a result?  Once again, you are STILL not answering the question.  What is the purpose of an American boycott of the 2022 Olympics?

Quaker, any boycott that would happen would be like the mooted boycott of Berlin in 1936 and the actual boycott carried out in 1980; it's intended to send a political message. Would it be effective? Probably not. But you're acting like Trump or Biden or whoever the hell is President in 2022 will act rationally with international business interests in mind. 

Anti-China sentiment is high in the U.S. right now. It's not just some fringe sentiment expressed by Trump, it's a mainstream view shared by many Americans. Boycotting the games would allow politicians to posture themselves as "tough on China" (a popular position these days) and show that they care more about "human rights" (or whatever the boycott justification is) than international business. 

As for 2028, sure that's a valid concern. However, consider that with how volatile things are right now, who's to say China and the U.S. will not have engaged in some kind of hot conflict by then? What if China has a regime change? This is like trying to say in 1988 that if America hosts the 1996 Olympics, the USSR will boycott again. We simply can't know what on earth will happen in 2028, and I promise you that the politicians who would make the call in this area, or at least try to pressure the USOC, will not give a damn about 2028. After all, USSR and Eastern Bloc didn't participate in the 1984 games and from an American perspective they were the best games ever (not saying I agree with this, just that you should expect '84 to be used to dismiss concerns about a possible 2028 China boycott).

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My goodness, man.. get off Pavlovian streak of yours when you get excited anytime you see the slightest hint of what could look like a boycott. You do realize that Trump is about to no longer be

What’s that? Suicide for fear of death?    Never in a million years would athletes en masse go for that idea.

I mean, it's only fair that they are punished and equally get their games cancelled if Tokyo loses them. Even if they did not caused the pandemic, the fact that their lies and constant cover ups of th

20 hours ago, Quaker2001 said:

Yes, Trump may throw a temper tantrum(p), but he doesn't have that kind of power.  And someone I doubt he wants to napalm business interests in Southern California because that's going to make for one hell of a mess with 2028 with the contracts that exist on both sides.  I don't doubt that he may try to do something ridiculous like that, but it doesn't mean he would succeed.

That's absurd that US athletes should think they can't go to 2022.  Again.. why?  What would American athletes not competing in China accomplish?  Would China suddenly be friendlier with Hong Kong as a result?  Once again, you are STILL not answering the question.  What is the purpose of an American boycott of the 2022 Olympics?

The Principle of not proping up the Chinese regime and an IOC who if they were decent would pull the plug on the games being held there.

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14 hours ago, Nacre said:

You are looking at this logically. Most politicians care about winning elections, not making rational decisions. And this becomes exacerbated in a climate of political radicalism like the one we are in now.

Again, I agree with your view. And I hope that Biden will be able to resist the pressure to do something stupid to take action against China, Russia and Iran. But I also hoped there would not be enough voters in 2016 who put sober analysis ahead of destructively antagonistic policies like "building a wall with Mexico", trade wars, and destabilizing eastern Europe. I was wrong, and lots of voters wanted to burn down the establishment. They probably will in 2020 and in 2022 as well.

This is an Olympic bid forum.  By default, we are going to spend more time discussing and thinking about the possibility of a boycott than Joe Biden might.  If he wins the election (again, G-d help us if he doesn't), he's going to have a thousand things to deal with.  Is the Beijing 2022 Olympics going to important enough on his agenda to spend the time and effort to use to make a major statement?  That this is in the Winter of 2022 means that it's well clear of any major election cycle.  You can't just throw the idea of "political radicalism" out there and assume this will be something the president in 2021 wants to make a big deal out of.  Trump we know will make a stand and we know the reasons why.  Saying that Biden is anti-China should not necessarily lead to an assumption he'll feel strongly about an Olympic boycott.

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8 hours ago, mr.bernham said:

Quaker, any boycott that would happen would be like the mooted boycott of Berlin in 1936 and the actual boycott carried out in 1980; it's intended to send a political message. Would it be effective? Probably not. But you're acting like Trump or Biden or whoever the hell is President in 2022 will act rationally with international business interests in mind. 

Anti-China sentiment is high in the U.S. right now. It's not just some fringe sentiment expressed by Trump, it's a mainstream view shared by many Americans. Boycotting the games would allow politicians to posture themselves as "tough on China" (a popular position these days) and show that they care more about "human rights" (or whatever the boycott justification is) than international business. 

As for 2028, sure that's a valid concern. However, consider that with how volatile things are right now, who's to say China and the U.S. will not have engaged in some kind of hot conflict by then? What if China has a regime change? This is like trying to say in 1988 that if America hosts the 1996 Olympics, the USSR will boycott again. We simply can't know what on earth will happen in 2028, and I promise you that the politicians who would make the call in this area, or at least try to pressure the USOC, will not give a damn about 2028. After all, USSR and Eastern Bloc didn't participate in the 1984 games and from an American perspective they were the best games ever (not saying I agree with this, just that you should expect '84 to be used to dismiss concerns about a possible 2028 China boycott).

I think I've made it crystal clear that Trump will not act rationally.  He'll make a major stink about this to rile up his supporters and to all but wage war with China.  I have little doubt that will be a thing.  I'm not so sure with Biden.  But you can't default to "he may not act rationally" and use that do make a case for inserting your own narrative.  You need to provide a "why" there.

Of course anti-China sentiment is high right now because of COVID-19, among other things.  The question is still what would a boycott of the 2022 Olympics accomplish?  Is that a political statement that might actually resonate?  Because the United States seemed more than eager to support the 2008 Olympics when there were still human rights issues.  I know the situation has changed since then, but what is the means to an end here?  Is there a hope that China might see this statement and actually change their ways?  Or is this going to be another 1980 boycott where at the end of the day, it accomplished virtually nothing and so the only fallout from that decision was a lot of athletes lot out on their Olympic dreams.

You say the politicians who might apply pressure won't care about 2028, but you know who will care?  The USOC.  How many people have said they don't want to see sports and politics intertwined (even though they often have with the Olympics)?  What's that going to look like if the most populous nation on the planet doesn't show up in 2028 and does so in part our of retaliation?  Sure, the 1984 Olympics are remembered fondly, but that's also because they followed all troubles with the Games in the late 60s and 1970s.  Didn't hurt matters that the United States won a crap ton of medals.  Also helped that Romania and China attended. 

The official line from the Soviets back then was they didn't feel comfortable here because of the anti-Soviet sentiment running throughout this country.  Do you know how much anti-American sentiment there is throughout the world right now?  You don't think other countries could point to us and some of our political positions and have an easy excuse to not support us?  You're right we don't know what the future holds, but for us to skip an Olympics in China and not have a very cogent argument to do so is not going to go over very well.  It's guaranteed to do damage to the Olympic movement (which again, Trump probably would rally for anyway) and therefore hurt the prospects of those 2028 Olympics we're looking forward to.

Bottom line.. tread carefully.  Don't underestimate the enormity of the statement a boycott would make and the long-term ramifications it could have

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29 minutes ago, REDWHITEBLUE24 said:

The Principle of not proping up the Chinese regime and an IOC who if they were decent would pull the plug on the games being held there.

So we would boycott on principle?  The IOC is not decent.  We know this.  They're not going to pull the plug, and it's not as if there weren't people who pointed to human rights violations back in 2001 when Beijing got awarded the 2008 games and had questions in the lead-up to those Olympics.

You are still not answering the fundamental question though.  Who would you hope is accomplished with a boycott of the 2022 Olympics?  If all you have is "just do it on principle," then it's going to be an empty gesture that will not lead to any sort of meaningful change.

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1 hour ago, REDWHITEBLUE24 said:

Quite a few countires would likely join the boycott including other top tier winter nations like Canada and Norway. 

I really, really doubt it.

Because Trump is despised by the rest of the democratic world, any politician who gives Trump what he wants will be seen negatively by their own electorate. Europe has thus far been lukewarm in its views of Trump's economic proposals to weaken China, and an Olympic boycott will be even less well received.

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16 hours ago, Nacre said:

I really, really doubt it.

Because Trump is despised by the rest of the democratic world, any politician who gives Trump what he wants will be seen negatively by their own electorate. Europe has thus far been lukewarm in its views of Trump's economic proposals to weaken China, and an Olympic boycott will be even less well received.

True but China is just as hated in the UK and Australia as it is in America.

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21 hours ago, REDWHITEBLUE24 said:

Quite a few countires would likely join the boycott including other top tier winter nations like Canada and Norway. 

What Nacre said.  You keep saying how you think there's going to be this huge groundswell for a boycott and that if the United States leads the efforts, other countries will join.  Not if Trump remains POTUS.  Because unless the messaging is clear (and it almost certainly won't be from him), that will be a tough political campaign for other world leaders to get behind, no matter how much they hate China.

Once again because you continue to skirt the point.. if this is about "hate," then it's not going to accomplish much of anything.  It's going to be an empty gesture that will not serve any political means.  I'd sooner say to send athletes to China and then have them make a stand while they are on the ground there, much as Jesse Owens won 4 gold medals in front of Hitler.

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5 hours ago, REDWHITEBLUE24 said:

Remember for example in 2022 France has elections with Le Pen  likely to run on a very anti china platform.

Macron got nearly double the vote of LePen in 2017. It is unlikely that France will elect a far right leader sympathetic to Trump.

And even being a far right leader is no guarantee of support. Viktor Orban of Hungary has threatened to turn his country to China for support if the European Union does not give him more financial support.

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2 hours ago, Quaker2001 said:

What Nacre said.  You keep saying how you think there's going to be this huge groundswell for a boycott and that if the United States leads the efforts, other countries will join.  Not if Trump remains POTUS.  Because unless the messaging is clear (and it almost certainly won't be from him), that will be a tough political campaign for other world leaders to get behind, no matter how much they hate China.

Once again because you continue to skirt the point.. if this is about "hate," then it's not going to accomplish much of anything.  It's going to be an empty gesture that will not serve any political means.  I'd sooner say to send athletes to China and then have them make a stand while they are on the ground there, much as Jesse Owens won 4 gold medals in front of Hitler.

Here in the UK Boris won't dare refuse to go along with trump - the only factor stopping the UK boycotting if the USA does is if Lord Coe opposes it publicly

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1 hour ago, Nacre said:

Macron got nearly double the vote of LePen in 2017. It is unlikely that France will elect a far right leader sympathetic to Trump.

And even being a far right leader is no guarantee of support. Viktor Orban of Hungary has threatened to turn his country to China for support if the European Union does not give him more financial support.

That's because he likes to wind up the rest of the EU.

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37 minutes ago, REDWHITEBLUE24 said:

As the Isreal/UAE deal shows there are loads of countries that ultimately will go for the USA vs China if the USA pushes hard enough.

And the UAE, Israel, Oman are great winter sports powers?  It will take a while for the US to restore its world leadership status after 2020, depending on whether BLUE sweeps Toxic Orange out.   

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4 hours ago, REDWHITEBLUE24 said:

Another difference to 1980 is the USA uses economic sanctions a lot more - what happens if any company dealing with the 2022 games faces being bared from trading in the USA and with Americans - that could be a key way other countries get forced into boycotting.

Here's my response to that.. what if that doesn't happen? 

If Trump is still president (once again, G-d help us if that happens), then yes, he'll make a big stink about anyone and anything dealing with China out of his own personal vendetta.  If Biden is president?  Wouldn't count on it.  He's not going to run the country in the same shoddy business-like matter that we've seen the past 3.5 years.  I don't see him making the kind of stand you think he will just because it sounds nice on principle.  And if other countries have to be "forced" into boycotting, then it's probably not going to be a very successful or meaningful boycott.

Trump would completely napalm the IOC if he got the opportunity.  He doesn't give a crap about 2028, so what's the LA Olympics to him?  But Biden.. I doubt he'll take the same tact just because there's anti-China sentiment in this country and you seem to think not sending athletes to the Olympics or imposing economic sanctions on major American companies is going to accomplish much of anything in the long run

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On 8/14/2020 at 3:13 PM, Quaker2001 said:

Here's my response to that.. what if that doesn't happen? 

If Trump is still president (once again, G-d help us if that happens), then yes, he'll make a big stink about anyone and anything dealing with China out of his own personal vendetta.  If Biden is president?  Wouldn't count on it.  He's not going to run the country in the same shoddy business-like matter that we've seen the past 3.5 years.  I don't see him making the kind of stand you think he will just because it sounds nice on principle.  And if other countries have to be "forced" into boycotting, then it's probably not going to be a very successful or meaningful boycott.

Trump would completely napalm the IOC if he got the opportunity.  He doesn't give a crap about 2028, so what's the LA Olympics to him?  But Biden.. I doubt he'll take the same tact just because there's anti-China sentiment in this country and you seem to think not sending athletes to the Olympics or imposing economic sanctions on major American companies is going to accomplish much of anything in the long run

Through the likelihood is Biden will be facing the extreme right as the leadership of the republicans urging him to go further and further.

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45 minutes ago, REDWHITEBLUE24 said:

Through the likelihood is Biden will be facing the extreme right as the leadership of the republicans urging him to go further and further.

Why listen to fools that sat on their hands instead of stopping the wannabe dictator? I hope Americans don't just vote (if allowed to vote to begin with!) for a change in the WH, but that they also flip the Senate. Trump would never have been able to ruin the US so much if it hadn't been for so many sycophants like Moscow Mitch etc.

If Biden is wise enough, he won't let himself get bullied by far-right extremists on whatever topic.

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So many things that could had been avoided by just electing Almaty. Many of you fail to realize the IOC is yet another puppet organization of Winnie Pooh. If we want China to stop being awared so much advantage, the first step is to get rid of the people in charge in Laussane.

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While I was very much in favour of Almaty in that miserable two horse race, given that it has more of a winter sports tradition and a favourable geography, it's also true that Nazarbayev was already getting old and in the meantime he has stepped down, though with relatively little succession trouble so far, and nobody knew in 2015 that Kazakhstan - at least for now - could be a less controversial and more stable choice than Beijing.

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Almaty looked like the right choice all along to me.......but I guess international organizations and the IOC have a very difficult time passing up $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$. Additionally; it may be a display of privileged and power that we are forced to wedge winter sports at this level into places that it is not a tradition or norm.

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22 hours ago, StefanMUC said:

While I was very much in favour of Almaty in that miserable two horse race, given that it has more of a winter sports tradition and a favourable geography, it's also true that Nazarbayev was already getting old and in the meantime he has stepped down, though with relatively little succession trouble so far, and nobody knew in 2015 that Kazakhstan - at least for now - could be a less controversial and more stable choice than Beijing.

Those few votes might have killed the IOC.- If the USA Pulls out rather than simply boycotting 2022 the organisation might collapse.

I honestly think many Americain winter olympians must be preparing mentally for the USOC  to boycott 2022.

 

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