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Could Beijing be stripped if Hong Kong Protests go south?

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Hong Kong doesnt look like its going away any time soon.  If a body count gets started in Hong Kong, will the IOC be under any pressure to pull the games?  They could be risking boycott by some countries for their stance on the Uighurs as is (1 million ethnic incarcerations is not a good look)

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14 hours ago, mountainboarder_530@yahoo. said:

Hong Kong doesnt look like its going away any time soon.  If a body count gets started in Hong Kong, will the IOC be under any pressure to pull the games?  They could be risking boycott by some countries for their stance on the Uighurs as is (1 million ethnic incarcerations is not a good look)

I doubt it.  The IOC was not unfamiliar with China when they awarded them the 2022 Olympics.  There may be pressure on them, but what's the alternative?  Can another city/country take over with a little over 2 years to go?  I doubt it, so it's likely Beijing or bust for the IOC and 2022.  And you know darn well the IOC isn't going to tell China they're not hosting the Olympics anymore.

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If the ghosts of Tiananmen Square couldn't haunt China effectively enough from being awarded the 2008 Summer Olympics, how will Hong Kong's issues, much less the Uighurs, impact them now when China's now a bonafide international sports power with a lucrative and desirable market at the stage of the time frame? Like Quaker says, all the IOC can do is apply pressure on it while being aware of its serious violations. Can't realistically take the toys away from the Chinese now.

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I think numbers matter.  0-5 fatalities would be no issue.  6-20 would be a finger wag.  21-30 would probably be a very serious discussion, but if for some reason a riot broke 50 fatalities in the world public eye.......  I think all on boycotts would be heavily discussed.  100 or more, call the thing off, its done; no one outside of Russia and North Korea would participate.  

If something like that happened, like, absolute, last-call emergency.........could SLC conceivably pick up the slack?  Or is even that a no-go?

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2 hours ago, mountainboarder_530@yahoo. said:

I think numbers matter.  0-5 fatalities would be no issue.  6-20 would be a finger wag.  21-30 would probably be a very serious discussion, but if for some reason a riot broke 50 fatalities in the world public eye.......  I think all on boycotts would be heavily discussed.  100 or more, call the thing off, its done; no one outside of Russia and North Korea would participate.  

If something like that happened, like, absolute, last-call emergency.........could SLC conceivably pick up the slack?  Or is even that a no-go?

If there's an Olympics in 2022, they will be in Beijing.  If Beijing for whatever reason can't host the Olympics, it probably means there won't be an Olympics in 2022.

Virtually every Olympics has negative stories in the lead up that make us question whether or not they will happen.  It happened with Sochi.  It happened with Rio.  It happened with PyeongChang.  It's happening with Tokyo.  So why would Beijing be an exception?

It is way way waaaaaaaaaay too early to assess what these protests mean for the Olympics.  To try and put a number on it is an exercise in pointlessness.  Especially since it's still 2019 and we have nearly 2 1/2 years to go.  

7 hours ago, Durban Sandshark said:

If the ghosts of Tiananmen Square couldn't haunt China effectively enough from being awarded the 2008 Summer Olympics, how will Hong Kong's issues, much less the Uighurs, impact them now when China's now a bonafide international sports power with a lucrative and desirable market at the stage of the time frame? Like Quaker says, all the IOC can do is apply pressure on it while being aware of its serious violations. Can't realistically take the toys away from the Chinese now.

No Durban, that's not what Quaker is saying.  The IOC is not going to apply pressure.  They chose China.  They have no choice but to accept the consequences of that decision.  It's outside forces that would pressure the IOC, not the other way around.  The IOC will do what they need to do in order to give off the impression that there are no issues with a China-hosted Olympics.  Just like they did with 2008.  As you alluded to, it's not like the IOC was unaware of China's history then.  This likely won't phase them.

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On 8/19/2019 at 9:21 PM, mountainboarder_530@yahoo. said:

I think numbers matter.  0-5 fatalities would be no issue.  6-20 would be a finger wag.  21-30 would probably be a very serious discussion, but if for some reason a riot broke 50 fatalities in the world public eye.......  I think all on boycotts would be heavily discussed.  100 or more, call the thing off, its done; no one outside of Russia and North Korea would participate.  

If something like that happened, like, absolute, last-call emergency.........could SLC conceivably pick up the slack?  Or is even that a no-go?

The level of naivety is something even in our current days. 

Remember Sochi boycott related to the gay rights and the killings in closing Chechnya? Or how about the criticism over Rio and the police in the favelas for order? China had faced this before and the IOC knew about this. It won't matter in the long term, not when China is one of the superpowers of the world.

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Honestly the only thing that would spark some type of response from the IOC is if everything in Hong Kong somehow came to a head during the games in Beijing. The juxtaposition of Beijing 2022 headlines right next to some manner of violence in Hong Kong would be a media **** show. But it's probably unlikely things would line up like that, especially with 2022 still two years out. At the end of the day this is purely internal politics, and the IOC aren't gonna dip their fingers into it unless it directly upsets the brand. 

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Sadly the Chinese are so integrated into the global economy now that any word of cancellation or boycotting may have real consequences - so I'd imagine nothing will happen.

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10 hours ago, thatsnotmypuppy said:

Sadly the Chinese are so integrated into the global economy now that any word of cancellation or boycotting may have real consequences - so I'd imagine nothing will happen.

Exactly.  In order for China to not host the 2022 Olympics, 1 of 2 things would have to happen.  Either A.) The IOC would have to tell China they are ripping up the host city contract and telling them they are no longer hosting the Games.  I think we all know there's virtually zero chance of that happening because I doubt the IOC has a backup plan, nor would they want to follow through with it.  Or then it would have to be B.) China decides they can no longer host the Olympics.  Again, it's going to take a lot more than some protesters in Hong Kong for them to even consider that.

I know it's the nature of this site these days that we're bored because there's not much to talk about, but let's not resort to insane theories involving events we'll probably barely remember come 2022.

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7 hours ago, Quaker2001 said:

I know it's the nature of this site these days that we're bored because there's not much to talk about, but let's not resort to insane theories involving events we'll probably barely remember come 2022.

Well that depends on the scale of whats to come. It's been 30 years and what happened in Beijing is still a vivid memory for many, many people.

Either way - 2022 is in Beijing.

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14 hours ago, thatsnotmypuppy said:

Well that depends on the scale of whats to come. It's been 30 years and what happened in Beijing is still a vivid memory for many, many people.

Either way - 2022 is in Beijing.

What happened in Tiananmen Square is one of the most infamous and iconic protests in recent history, particularly in the era of live television coverage.  Hundreds if not thousands of people were killed.  The current death total from what has happened in Hong Kong is still in the single digits, all of which - to my knowledge - have been suicides.  Not quite the same as an all out military assault on the protesters.

We don't know what history will tell us about what's happening in Hong Kong right now or where it could lead to.  Do we really want to imagine the worst possible outcome in the context of an Olympics bids forum?  Again, maybe let's not hyperbolize these protests as if there's a likelihood it will escalate to the same level as Tiananmen Square.

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6 hours ago, Quaker2001 said:

Do we really want to imagine the worst possible outcome in the context of an Olympics bids forum?

Come now - you aren't that new here...

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5 hours ago, thatsnotmypuppy said:

Come now - you aren't that new here...

I know.  Best I can do to avoid my response being "this site has gone to sh!t and you're all a bunch of bloody wankers"

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18 hours ago, Quaker2001 said:

I know.  Best I can do to avoid my response being "this site has gone to sh!t and you're all a bunch of bloody wankers"

But but but... ALMATY!!!

I hear you though.

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