2030 Olympic Winter Games Bids

[cfm Jeremie]

I would imagine that PyeongChang is one of them (let's face it, they have almost all venues ready to host, they would "only" need to solve the question of the Villages).

As for the others, I wouldn't be surprised if Norway was having quiet discussions as well (between Oslo and Lillehammer, they do have a lot of venues) .

Given the current context, I cannot imagine Sochi being considered (on top of the war in Ukraine, Sochi is probably one of the former host the most threatened by climate change).

[StefanMUC]

1 hour ago, cfm Jeremie said:

I would imagine that PyeongChang is one of them (let's face it, they have almost all venues ready to host, they would "only" need to solve the question of the Villages).

As for the others, I wouldn't be surprised if Norway was having quiet discussions as well (between Oslo and Lillehammer, they do have a lot of venues) .

Given the current context, I cannot imagine Sochi being considered (on top of the war in Ukraine, Sochi is probably one of the former host the most threatened by climate change).

Stockholm is probably fix as one of the "mysterious" competition, though let's see what comes out of it.

PC could probably be in there too. South Korea would certainly prefer Summer Olympics next, but then again with 2032 in Australia, I guess East Asia has to sit out 2036 anyway, and if they "save" 2030, they will be in the good books with the IOC for 2040 for sure.

Can't see anything happening with Norway, not after the scorched earth by the IOC in 2014/15 during 2022 campaign. Sochi is certainly off unless the IOC is completely out of their mind, and I don't think they want to tempt fate with China again so soon.
 

[stryker]

On 3/7/2023 at 6:19 PM, StefanMUC said:

Stockholm is probably fix as one of the "mysterious" competition, though let's see what comes out of it.

Can't see anything happening with Norway, not after the scorched earth by the IOC in 2014/15 during 2022 campaign. Sochi is certainly off unless the IOC is completely out of their mind, and I don't think they want to tempt fate with China again so soon.
 

I mentioned a hypothetical Norway bid in another thread but this would require the IOC eating an extra large portion of humble pie after the 2022 race. Frankly I cannot see that happening. If Norway was one of the mysterious bids, it would be great to see them go public and just wipe the floor with the IOC forcing Bach and company to crawl begging on their hands and knees to save the 2030 Olympics.

I wouldn't discount a return to Beijing either. The IOC sang Beijing's praises during the 2022 WOGs and like it or not, China is a safe host. I'd even venture that China would use their recent "Ukraine war peace proposal" as PR and the IOC would eat like a toddler in a candy store.

[StefanMUC]

Yeah but Taiwan is hanging over this even more than before these days. Even the IOC can’t be willing to take the risk (well, at least I would hope so).

[AustralianFan]

 

 

breaking news >>> 10 March 2023 - Sweden and Latvia in discussions to explore 2030 bid - link to gamesbids thread

[stryker]

18 hours ago, StefanMUC said:

Yeah but Taiwan is hanging over this even more than before these days. Even the IOC can’t be willing to take the risk (well, at least I would hope so).

China doesn't have the amphibious assault capability to take Taiwan. Sure there's some saber rattling but Xi knows full well a war with Taiwan would be costly both in lives and money. Don't forget that Xi and co. are masters at charm offensives, the kind the IOC would bite hook, line, and sinker so yes, I would think a third trip to Beijing is not out of the realm of possibility.

[Quaker2001]

On 3/7/2023 at 4:19 PM, StefanMUC said:

Stockholm is probably fix as one of the "mysterious" competition, though let's see what comes out of it.

PC could probably be in there too. South Korea would certainly prefer Summer Olympics next, but then again with 2032 in Australia, I guess East Asia has to sit out 2036 anyway, and if they "save" 2030, they will be in the good books with the IOC for 2040 for sure.

Can't see anything happening with Norway, not after the scorched earth by the IOC in 2014/15 during 2022 campaign. Sochi is certainly off unless the IOC is completely out of their mind, and I don't think they want to tempt fate with China again so soon.
 

On 3/10/2023 at 7:04 PM, stryker said:

I mentioned a hypothetical Norway bid in another thread but this would require the IOC eating an extra large portion of humble pie after the 2022 race. Frankly I cannot see that happening. If Norway was one of the mysterious bids, it would be great to see them go public and just wipe the floor with the IOC forcing Bach and company to crawl begging on their hands and knees to save the 2030 Olympics.

I wouldn't discount a return to Beijing either. The IOC sang Beijing's praises during the 2022 WOGs and like it or not, China is a safe host. I'd even venture that China would use their recent "Ukraine war peace proposal" as PR and the IOC would eat like a toddler in a candy store.

 

After Stockholm bowed out of the 2022 race, who would have guessed they would have had any presence in the 2026 race.  So I wouldn't say Norway is impossible because of how they exited 2022.  I don't think at this point there's any will to dust that bid off and try again, but if there was, the IOC would welcome them with open arms.  After all, this is the new norm era we're talking about here.  It's not about having the flashiest presentation anymore.  In theory, it's about working with each other.  Again, would be very surprised if that came out of the woodwork, but what happened 8 years ago isn't likely to cloud that issue.

 

I would discount a return to Beijing.  It's not going to happen.  The IOC took enough flack for that one with all the human rights issues that it's way too soon to return there.  Not to much it would likely push back any hopes of China going for another Summer Olympics.  It's "safe" in the context of the technical aspects of hosting an Olympics, but they'll make whatever financial deal they have to with Salt Lake before they even consider that option.  The IOC is terrible at PR as we know, but the very last thing they need at this point is any more attention on what's happening in Ukraine in connection with the Olympics.  No good can come from that.

[Sigh]

On 3/12/2023 at 4:04 AM, Quaker2001 said:

After Stockholm bowed out of the 2022 race, who would have guessed they would have had any presence in the 2026 race.  So I wouldn't say Norway is impossible because of how they exited 2022.  I don't think at this point there's any will to dust that bid off and try again, but if there was, the IOC would welcome them with open arms.  After all, this is the new norm era we're talking about here.  It's not about having the flashiest presentation anymore.  In theory, it's about working with each other.  Again, would be very surprised if that came out of the woodwork, but what happened 8 years ago isn't likely to cloud that issue.

There was some discussion in Norway in May 2022 and then - silence. The Norwegians probably found good reasons not to bid. If they didn't continue then, it's unlikely they will restart the process now.

[iceman530]

*** pokes Finland***.......come on......do something......

[StefanMUC]

4 hours ago, iceman530 said:

*** pokes Finland***.......come on......do something......

Like magically growing a mountain and a sliding track?

[stryker]

10 hours ago, iceman530 said:

*** pokes Finland***.......come on......do something......

Helsinki had a bis for the 2006 WOGs with Lillehammer. Helsinki and Lahti would have hosted all the events except alpine skiing and sliding events. The bid wasn't even considered at the time due to IOC rules prohibiting cross-country bids. Of course today such a bis would be welcomed by the IOC with open arms. Unfortunately, Finland has no desire at all to bid for any Olympics. I have a good friend and former colleague from Helsinki. She has said most Helsinki residents and the current government are extremely hostile towards any Olympics bid viewing it as far too expensive, even under today's model not to mention there's a great deal of hostility towards the IOC. The closest Finland will get are individual world championships.

[Sigh]

When SOK announced it's latest Quixotic quest on February 8 this year the main Swedish language newspaper in Finland asked the chairman of the Finnish Olympic comittee about a Finnish bid. The answer was that they had not received any request from IOC. The managing director said that it was far too early for a Finnish bid. Maybe sometime in the future for a later WOG when they see how things evolve but not for 2030.

[stryker]

A bit off-topic here, but one has to wonder if the IOC is watching what's going on in Switzerland with Credit Suisse on the verge of collapse. Another global financial crisis could put a dent in enticing future candidate cities to host, especially the WOGs.

[iceman530]

Seems there are some people in the know about the Swedish situation.  Putting a percentage on Stockholm/Are, etc, what are we looking at for a chance of success?  25-30 percent?  less than that?

Is there anything that can be done to tip the scales in the IOC's favor?  

[Sir Rols]

1 hour ago, iceman530 said:

Seems there are some people in the know about the Swedish situation.  Putting a percentage on Stockholm/Are, etc, what are we looking at for a chance of success?  25-30 percent?  less than that?

Is there anything that can be done to tip the scales in the IOC's favor?  

I’ve always been pretty clear on the forums that a Swedish winter games are my last, fondest Olympic wish. I’d desperately want them to succeed this time. That said, I’m not blind to the challenges against it.

It’s all riding on the feasibility report due next month, and how that can be sold to the Swedish government and public. I’m guessing that it will propose a low-cost plan with most, if not everything, in place technically. That should be, in normal circumstances, eminently sellable. But we’re talking Sweden here, and IMO there’s two factors against it even moreso than the challenges it faced getting support for 2026:

* The fact that they lost 2026, adding yet another, more recent, sting to their huge string of snubs and disappointments at  the hands of the IOC; and

* The issue of Russia and whatever plans the OC is hatching to get them competing in Paris. It’s not the kind of publicity the IOC would want, particularly in Sweden, which has been so strident in its opposition to Russia’s adventuring in the Ukraine. It’s just worsening an already low opinion of the OC in Sweden.

Even my optimistic side would struggle to say no more than 20-30 per cent. My pessimistic side would say we’re looking at a miracle of withstanding a sub 10 per cent chance. I’ll be overjoyed if it happens, but stealing myself to expect disappointment.

Edited March 20, 2023 by Sir Rols

[BigVic]

Helsinki...all the facilities are there and they hosted the 1952 Summer Olympics 

[Sir Rols]

5 minutes ago, BigVic said:

Helsinki...all the facilities are there and they hosted the 1952 Summer Olympics 

Ummm, no they don’t. I don’t know why Finland’s being brought up. They DON’T have the mountains (or the sliding track). The only past proposal I can remember from them posited Lahti with the use of Lillehammer for alpine events (and didn’t progress to anything concrete0.

You might as well just replace Stockholm with Helsinki and see if the IOC would go for a three-nation winter bid (Sweden-Finland-Latvia).

[Sigh]

1 hour ago, Sir Rols said:

Even my optimistic side would struggle to say no more than 20-30 per cent. My pessimistic side would say we’re looking at a miracle of withstanding a sub 10 per cent chance. I’ll be overjoyed if it happens, but stealing myself to expect disappointment.

Sir Rols is very optimistic. The factors he mentions are very important but thera are others as well.

Actually, the April 20 release is only a midway station of the feasibility report. The full feasibility report is due sometime during summer (if not stopped before). SOK may be working with politicians but they certainly aren't doing anything about public opinion.

As for Finland 2030;  both the chairman of the Finnish olympic committe and the managing director firmly ruled that out as late as February this year.

Norway? In May 2022 there was a opinion poll released where there was a 47% support and only twenty-something against (i.e. significantly better than in Sweden at present). There was some talk about a bid then but support within the sports movement was lukewarm. Apparently more important work for sports in Norway would be shunted aside in that case. But who knows?

[Quaker2001]

5 hours ago, Sir Rols said:

I’ve always been pretty clear on the forums that a Swedish winter games are my last, fondest Olympic wish. I’d desperately want them to succeed this time. That said, I’m not blind to the challenges against it.

It’s all riding on the feasibility report due next month, and how that can be sold to the Swedish government and public. I’m guessing that it will propose a low-cost plan with most, if not everything, in place technically. That should be, in normal circumstances, eminently sellable. But we’re talking Sweden here, and IMO there’s two factors against it even moreso than the challenges it faced getting support for 2026:

* The fact that they lost 2026, adding yet another, more recent, sting to their huge string of snubs and disappointments at  the hands of the IOC; and

* The issue of Russia and whatever plans the OC is hatching to get them competing in Paris. It’s not the kind of publicity the IOC would want, particularly in Sweden, which has been so strident in its opposition to Russia’s adventuring in the Ukraine. It’s just worsening an already low opinion of the OC in Sweden.

Even my optimistic side would struggle to say no more than 20-30 per cent. My pessimistic side would say we’re looking at a miracle of withstanding a sub 10 per cent chance. I’ll be overjoyed if it happens, but stealing myself to expect disappointment.

 

I'll disagree on 1 point.. I don't think the 2026 loss will affect them here.  I could understand if they were headed into another competition where the outcome could be that the envelope is opened with another city's name on it.  But that's not really the case.  If they push forward (and yes, there are numerous obstacles in their way just to be able to make a pitch to the IOC), either it'll get selected or the IOC will tell them they're not interested.  It wouldn't be the same level of rejection they've experienced before.

 

The 2nd point is key.  Obviously France, Italy, the United States, and Australia are already locked in.  Now is not the best time though for any country to say "hey IOC, we'd like to work with you."  Which is a shame for Sweden since that's something they have nothing to do with, but where public sentiment is involved in the equation, it can't be ignored.  It's definitely the kind of thing where any direction connection to the IOC is likely to be met with a lot of negativity.  At this point, who knows how that situation will resolve itself.  Certainly don't have much faith in the IOC managing to figure out that one

[Sir Rols]

31 minutes ago, Quaker2001 said:

 

I'll disagree on 1 point.. I don't think the 2026 loss will affect them here.  I could understand if they were headed into another competition where the outcome could be that the envelope is opened with another city's name on it.  But that's not really the case.  If they push forward (and yes, there are numerous obstacles in their way just to be able to make a pitch to the IOC), either it'll get selected or the IOC will tell them they're not interested.  It wouldn't be the same level of rejection they've experienced before.

 

My point was not that the Swedes are shy of losing again - we, and they, know that this one is a VERY special case in that they basically only have to say “yes, we are interested in going further” for them to be handed it on a platter, no votes or questions asked. It was more that 2026 was the latest in a long line of losses and rejections, some more stinging than others (1994 was a huge blow and sore point to them for example), that has fostered a general distrust, even sour grapes, when it comes to the IOC. The 2026 loss stiung to the point that we even saw the likes of Gunilla Lindberg - an IOC member no less - spit the dummy in the aftermath, and berate the IOC for rejecting a bid she said exemplified the spirit of “Agenda 2020”. Continued rejection can breed bitterness.

31 minutes ago, Quaker2001 said:

Now is not the best time though for any country to say "hey IOC, we'd like to work with you."  

Yes, up to a point. But it depends on which countries. Obviously this is not the time to enthuse the likes of Sweden, or Germany, in the merits of working with the IOC. But the likes of Arabia, India or Indonesia are far more equivocal towards the Russia issue, and public opinion isn’t as inflamed in those and others as it is with those - mainly European, NATO and western-allied countries - more engaged with the conflict. It’s the Olympic Council of Asia, for example, that’s emerging as the main player trying to woo and accomodate Russia at a time when European sports, or ant least the public, are shunning it.

Edited March 21, 2023 by Sir Rols

[krow]

wait, could the USOC demand the IOC drop russia from its neutral athlete position as a condition for taking 2030?

i realize i sound crazy for asking that, but it would be so, so hilarious.

[StefanMUC]

2 hours ago, krow said:

wait, could the USOC demand the IOC drop russia from its neutral athlete position as a condition for taking 2030?

i realize i sound crazy for asking that, but it would be so, so hilarious.

USOC surely wouldn’t, same as with the French NOC they are in bed with the IOC as future summer hosts. The US govt however…they need to give security guarantees at least. So there could be a lever. Though who knows, by Jan 20, 2025 there might be another Putin puppet (or the previous one) sitting in the WH.

[stryker]

On 3/23/2023 at 3:25 AM, StefanMUC said:

USOC surely wouldn’t, same as with the French NOC they are in bed with the IOC as future summer hosts. The US govt however…they need to give security guarantees at least. So there could be a lever. Though who knows, by Jan 20, 2025 there might be another Putin puppet (or the previous one) sitting in the WH.

Agree with your point about the OCs, If a government said no to Russian athletes especially on "threats to national security" then that's an avenue to keep the Russian and Belarussian athletes out, and this can be done closer to the opening of the Olympics when the IOC is powerless to do anything other than rant and rave. I think it's also worth noting the USOPC is a private not-for-profit organization that is outside of the U.S. government. If the Pentagon, CIA, or whoever says someone is banned from entering the country the USOPC has little recourse. 

[stryker]

Hit the post button too soon. The Russia thing isn't going away anytime soon, especially with recent reports from U.S> intelligence suggesting this war could drag on for years. I'd say it's a near certainty we're having the same conversation about Russia and Belarus at Milan-Cortina and perhaps even Los Angeles.

[FYI]

On 3/23/2023 at 3:25 AM, StefanMUC said:

Though who knows, by Jan 20, 2025 there might be another Putin puppet (or the previous one) sitting in the WH.