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stryker

Where does the IOC go from here?

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1 hour ago, thatsnotmypuppy said:

Of course we must also consider the fact that come 2032 NBC may not hold any NFL rights... As we saw with the last negotiations - Fox, CBS and ESPN all paid considerably more for their portion of the rights - and come the next negotiation round (2022 I believe?) NBC may not even be in the running.

Also lets throw in the fact that NFL ratings were down 8% last season (with only the blockbuster matches/finals netting more than 25 million viewers out of a population of 300 million+) and we'll see if NBC and the NFL are even an issue in the future.  It may be that NBC are more than happy to try to steal the thunder from the other networks.

source - http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/nfl-tv-ratings-viewership-nbc-cbs-fox-espn-nfln-regular-season-playoffs/

Correct that the current contracts run through 2022.  I would be surprised though if NBC wasn't in the running though.  Their rights fee went up, although not as steeply as the other networks.  They learned the hard way what it does to your network's profile to not have an NFL package, so right now, I'd say it's a pretty good assumption that NBC will be in the running.

As for the ratings.. a lot of the drop in ratings likely had to do with presidential election coverage being more present last year that it had been in a past.  I expect the ratings to bounce back somewhat this season, although that remains to be seen.  You mention the audience (which yes, does constitute a comparably small population of a big country.. remember though that certain games are shown simultaneously on different networks), but that's enough for the NFL to be able to bring in more than $5 billion a year in rights fees.

Even if NBC is out of the NFL business by 2032, if there's a clash between the NFL and the Olympics, that's still bad for business on both ends.  Maybe it wouldn't be as serious as a direct conflict with NBC (similar to what Fox is experiencing with the 2022 World Cup), but it's still something that would be taken note of.  And again, I know that sounds a lot like American arrogance thinking it's the only country of importance, but with the amount of money invested, it's something that could be a factor if a potential host city seeking dates in September and October presents itself.

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I don't think its the scheduling issue that hampers a WOG bid from the southern hemisphere but the fact that there's so little winter sports infrastructure in a country like Argentina, Chile, or even New Zealand. What would happen to the venues after the Olympics? Probably more white elephants. In terms of the debate about an Olympics conflicting with the NFL in September, I'll add that it's not just the NFL the Olympics would have to contend with in the U.S. They'd also have to compete for air time against college football and Major League Baseball (pennant races start heating up in September).

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7 hours ago, stryker said:

I don't think its the scheduling issue that hampers a WOG bid from the southern hemisphere but the fact that there's so little winter sports infrastructure in a country like Argentina, Chile, or even New Zealand. What would happen to the venues after the Olympics? Probably more white elephants. In terms of the debate about an Olympics conflicting with the NFL in September, I'll add that it's not just the NFL the Olympics would have to contend with in the U.S. They'd also have to compete for air time against college football and Major League Baseball (pennant races start heating up in September).

There could be a case made to build additional training facilities in the Southern Hemisphere for athletes who want to train around this time of year.  But yea, for those venues to be serious competition venues, there's probably not much use for them.  At most you're hoping to host a couple of competitions each year, but that's probably not enough to make it sustainable, less you find an authoritarian government that just doesn't care about such things.

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In terms of the 2026 race, the IOC is going to have October 15th circled on their calendar, the date of the referendum for the Innsbruck bid which they will be watching very closely. Innsbruck is just announced they are going on a two month roadshow, essentially a PR blitz to encourage a yes vote on the Olympics. I suspect at some point you will see the IOC join in on this as well. If the referendum for the bid votes no, then I think there will be panic (not publicly of course) in the halls of the IOC. If there's a no vote, then IOC members have to wonder, "Innsbruck proposed a low-cost stripped-down WOGs and even that couldn't garner support." All of this before Pyeongchang which isn't exactly setting a model for a viable legacy. 

For arguments sake, let's just assume Innsbruck, Sion, and Calgary all fail to go forward and Almaty, who I predict will join the race, was the only candidate left standing. Would the IOC award them the WOGs outright? I think they'd have no choice given they accepted Almaty as a finalist for the 2022 WOGs that they came up just short of.

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39 minutes ago, stryker said:

In terms of the 2026 race, the IOC is going to have October 15th circled on their calendar, the date of the referendum for the Innsbruck bid which they will be watching very closely. Innsbruck is just announced they are going on a two month roadshow, essentially a PR blitz to encourage a yes vote on the Olympics. I suspect at some point you will see the IOC join in on this as well. If the referendum for the bid votes no, then I think there will be panic (not publicly of course) in the halls of the IOC. If there's a no vote, then IOC members have to wonder, "Innsbruck proposed a low-cost stripped-down WOGs and even that couldn't garner support." All of this before Pyeongchang which isn't exactly setting a model for a viable legacy. 

For arguments sake, let's just assume Innsbruck, Sion, and Calgary all fail to go forward and Almaty, who I predict will join the race, was the only candidate left standing. Would the IOC award them the WOGs outright? I think they'd have no choice given they accepted Almaty as a finalist for the 2022 WOGs that they came up just short of.

Honestly, I think the IOC would be calling up the USOC to put forth Salt Lake before they'd give 2026 to Almaty with no contest.

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Don't forget about Erzurum! They're thinking about running, too! So the IOC need not worry about who drops out! :lol:

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I forgot about Erzurum though I question how serious Erdogan would be about putting forth a WOG bid. Given the animosity towards bidding for the WOGs right now, you have to wonder if Erdogan and Nazarbayev are thinking they have real opportunities to be hosting.

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I'm sure that E & A are perhaps likely waiting to see how the Innsbruck referendum pans out at least, since it'll take place in just less than a couple of months. Sion's referendum they can't wait for the results, cuz theirs will take place over a year from now, well into the 2026 campaign.

But at least knowing, from E & A's POV, that competing against one solid European bidder (at least until Sion's referendum) is better than competiting against two traditional European bids. I'm sure that we'll hear more from E & A come November, when we'll have a better picture of who's in or out, including Calgary.

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6 hours ago, stryker said:

For arguments sake, let's just assume Innsbruck, Sion, and Calgary all fail to go forward and Almaty, who I predict will join the race, was the only candidate left standing. Would the IOC award them the WOGs outright? I think they'd have no choice given they accepted Almaty as a finalist for the 2022 WOGs that they came up just short of.

6 hours ago, Barcelona_'92 said:

Honestly, I think the IOC would be calling up the USOC to put forth Salt Lake before they'd give 2026 to Almaty with no contest.

Doesn't work that way.  If Salt Lake is interested in bidding, they can bid.  The IOC is not in a position to ask for them to bid, not to mention that they need to go through the USOC through that.  They have enough to deal with to plan LA.  If they want to throw their hat in the ring for a Winter bid, they can.  But they can't expect that a last minute phone call would mean Salt Lake could jump right in.  They'd need time to plan, so they'd put the IOC in a holding pattern for months, if not longer than that.

Let's remember about Almaty.. 40 of 84 voters were ready to award them the 2022 Olympics over Beijing.  I would have to imagine all of them would therefore be okay with awarding Almaty an Olympics over no one.  Not an ideal situation, but what choice would they have in that scenario?

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5 hours ago, Quaker2001 said:

Not an ideal situation, but what choice would they have in that scenario?

Just let Beijing host 2026, too! :lol:

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At least we can expect there will be no referendum in Almaty and Erzurum.

I think if any European bid (Alps or Scandinavia) survives the referendum, it is the winner.

Medium term solution (2030 ?) would be to go for France, there is no referendum there either.

Edited by hektor

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Would France even be interested in a WOGs so soon after getting ready for Paris? I don't think you'll see a Scandinavian bid for a long time. Stockholm has said no twice in a row citing costs, Finland doesn't have the mountains, and Norway is likely to keep a distance from any bid after the way the IOC lashed out at Oslo when they pulled out of the 2022 race. 

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The IOC's only (desirable) hope right now for 2026 is either Sion or Innsbruck, with the latter, I think moreso, sticking it out 'til the end. And if neither of those pan out, the IOC will be in panic mode, cuz then they know that a third consecutive Winter Olympics will undoubtedly be headed back to Asia. Unless of course Calgary finally does decide to run, then it theirs instead (as second pick).

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19 hours ago, stryker said:

Would France even be interested in a WOGs so soon after getting ready for Paris? 

Well if they truly believed that Paris would require little to no new facilities they should be interested if theh wanted to further prove their stability as a host for Olympic games.

If Lyon did agree as the host for the games and chose that Savoie area for the outdoor events, it would fall in a similar situation with Paris hosting in that it has little to no new facilities being built. There is already a ski jumping and sliding track venue in place in the area, 2 of the most costly and white-elephant risks of a winter games. The region has plenty of snow and mountains for all skiing events. And of course Lyon has plenty of indoor facilities to accomodate (almost) all indoor events.

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6 hours ago, LatinXTC said:

Well if they truly believed that Paris would require little to no new facilities they should be interested if theh wanted to further prove their stability as a host for Olympic games.

If Lyon did agree as the host for the games and chose that Savoie area for the outdoor events, it would fall in a similar situation with Paris hosting in that it has little to no new facilities being built. There is already a ski jumping and sliding track venue in place in the area, 2 of the most costly and white-elephant risks of a winter games. The region has plenty of snow and mountains for all skiing events. And of course Lyon has plenty of indoor facilities to accomodate (almost) all indoor events.

France as a country just got something that has eluded them for a century.  Why do they add to that as if they have something left to prove?  Let them focus their efforts on making Paris 2024 a success.  No need to pile on a Winter Olympics on top of that.  Let France get through 2024.  Then if they really want to go after a Winter Olympics then, they can.  Not their responsibility to throw a bid out there because the IOC may or may not have a solid field of bidders for 2026.

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On 8/21/2017 at 1:35 PM, stryker said:

Would France even be interested in a WOGs so soon after getting ready for Paris? I don't think you'll see a Scandinavian bid for a long time. Stockholm has said no twice in a row citing costs, Finland doesn't have the mountains, and Norway is likely to keep a distance from any bid after the way the IOC lashed out at Oslo when they pulled out of the 2022 race. 

Don't be surprised if there're again two safe bids (Between Innsbruck, Sion and Calgary), the IOC will do the same as Paris-LA. 

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9 hours ago, Roger87 said:

Don't be surprised if there're again two safe bids (Between Innsbruck, Sion and Calgary), the IOC will do the same as Paris-LA. 

I was thinking the same thing, but RIP a summer games in my lifetime in Toronto :(

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Old news here but the IAAF awarded the 2021 World Championships to Eugene, to be held at Hayward Stadium, which will be renovated and expanded to between 30,000 and 40,000. Could this become a model for athletics stadiums in the Olympics especially at a time when the IOC is struggling to attract bidders? The Olympic Stadium is the biggest albatross in the SOGs when it comes to a bid IMO. Cities that would make a good SOG host (New York, Chicago)are hamstrung by the fact that neither city would have a need for a minimum 60,000-80,00 seat stadium after the Olympics conclude. It works out if you have a tenant who's ready to move in after the Olympics. Glasgow pioneered the temporary platform track which Los Angeles is planning but this only works if you have an oval shaped stadium, and most newer stadiums don't fit that profile. Then there's the oft mentioned but failed "temporary stadium" concept. I wouldn't call London's a failure as they found a tenant in West Ham United, but Incheon for the recent Asian Games and now most likely Pyeongchang are examples of the so-called scaling down concept being abject failures. 

SO could the solution be a smaller athletics stadium like what the IAAF is settling for in Eugene as long as there's a larger capacity stadium for the ceremonies and football. Seems like a win-win. I know there'd be complaints about lower capacity but from what I recall at Rio, the stadium was barely half full for many of the prelims. Seems like I remember the announcers commenting about people headed for the exits every time Usain Bolt finished.

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