Jump to content

If Durban flops for 2032, who will head for 2032?


Recommended Posts

Like others mentioning here, Australia would be a fair bet. Durban (and South Africa) is really screwing up preparations for the 2022 Commonwealth Games and that is such not a good look.

Australia is stable and can easily throw up Brisbane or Melbourne as a host city.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm loving all the Australia talk but let's back it up a bit.

Brisbane is just doing a study - a study that major local councils aren't even interested in. Public approval isn't that high and neither the state or federal government have come out and backed any bid. Dropping a few billion on a sporting event while our current leader is slashing pensions and penalty rates is not going to happen.

The opposition is also yet to show any real support.

The AOC is not in a position to force anyones hand and an Aussie bid/Games will rely almost exclusively on massive federal funding.

Brisbane will need major infrastructure upgrades. Rail links. Road widening. Multiple venue upgrades as well as a new stadium (QSAC will not cut it). Any new Commonwealth Games venue works will not meet the Olympic capacity standard - the Chandler complex is too small and will need massive upgrades. This is the reality on the ground. Don't kid yourselves. As we're seeing with Tokyo the sporting federations are not letting much slide past them.

Melbourne basically only needs a temporary aquatic centre (really just for swimming) and a village. Rowing will probably be at Nagambie or Ballarat - but I wonder if there is a closer option. Minor upgrades and retrofits will round out what is needed. I honestly feel the AOC should be pushing for the Games window to be expanded and going with them. Yes I am a Melbourne booster  - but it has to be conceeded that it's the best choice for a Games here - and a great choice for the IOC to "reboot" with a cost effective option. Melbourne doesn't need to promise a fabled Olympic legacy - it's already happening. If we can argue for staging in mid/ late September the weather will be passable. I mean it rarely is freezing in Melbourne but above 20 celcius would be advantageous. 

Sydney has shown no interest in hosting again. Period. With the new works on the Homebush stadium there is no way bar a major seat killing deck to install a track.

So 2032 is very much open - I'd be thrilled but surprised if we bid at all.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I would expect, if tnmp is correct, for Australia to enter the race with Melbourne. 

Melbourne at that point would, and Australian's correct me if I'm wrong, be the most populated city in Australia and more than capable of hosting the games. It would be able to showcase how much the city has changed since 1956 and Australia could show the world how much it has changed since 2000. 

Europe is trickier. Paris hosting a successful games would certainly boost European interest. I could easily see Madrid leading the field of European contenders. A Moscow/St.Petersburg bid could be a strong possibility. I would love to see Istanbul bid, but until things settle down (which is unlikely) and democracy is restored it's a non-starter. Buenos Aires could very well put in a 'testing the waters' bid as could Shanghai. Maybe another European city from maybe Poland, Germany, Norway, or Austria?

Ultimately I could see the final field looking something like this:

Europe:

  1. Madrid
  2. St.Petersburg
  3. Warsaw

Asia/Oceania:

  1. Shanghai
  2. Melbourne

Americas: 

  1. Buenos Aires

I would suspect, just with preliminary knowledge that voting would be as follows:

  • Round 1: St.Petsburg eliminated
  • Round 2: Buenos Aires eliminated
  • Round 3: Warsaw eliminated
  • Round 4: Showdown between Melbourne and Madrid (Melbourne narrow win)

2036 would probably be a showdown between European cities and Asia. Without knowing the global context (hell, there could be a world war at this rate) I believe the 2036 field would look like this:

Europe:

  1. Madrid
  2. Moscow
  3. Berlin
  4. Rome

Asia:

  1. Shanghai
  2. Seoul
  3. Istanbul

Americas:

  1. Buenos Aires

Rome would probably drop out before the final vote. Voting could be like the following:

  • Round 1: Moscow eliminated
  • Round 2: Seoul eliminated
  • Round 3: Istanbul eliminated
  • Round 4: Rome eliminated
  • Round 5: Shanghai eliminated
  • Round 6: Buenos Aires eliminated
  • Round 7: Showdown between Berlin and Madrid (toss-up)

The games lineup for the 21st century would be:

  • Sydney 2000
  • Athens 2004
  • Beijing 2008
  • London 2012
  • Rio 2016
  • Tokyo 2020
  • Paris 2024
  • Los Angeles 2028
  • Melbourne 2032
  • Madrid/Berlin 2036

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Melbourne (I always want to write "Melburn") is an interesting host city.

  1. It would be a fantastic host city and has most of what it needs in place. It is an Australian version of Paris or Los Angeles.
  2. Northern hemisphere voters and broadcast companies do not want Melbourne because it would have to host outside of the northern hemisphere summer.

I think Melbourne's best chance is for another round of democratic cities dropping like flies. If Melbourne is competing against a city like Berlin I don't think it has much of a chance: there would be too many self-interested voters picking the city that would get them the most money. But if Melbourne is up against Baku and Shanghai it would have a very good chance of picking up most of the "democratic votes."

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm guessing there is an old thread on this somewhere, but I couldn't find it. Realistically, what's the earliest Melbourne could host? 

What summer events need warmer temperatures? Can we ship 1-2 (beach volleyball?) to someplace warm? 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Nacre said:

It would be a fantastic host city and has most of what it needs in place. It is an Australian version of Paris or Los Angeles.

I think Melbourne's best chance is for another round of democratic cities dropping like flies. If Melbourne is competing against a city like Berlin I don't think it has much of a chance: there would be too many self-interested voters picking the city that would get them the most money. But if Melbourne is up against Baku and Shanghai it would have a very good chance of picking up most of the "democratic votes."

That goes without saying. And as an Australian poster already mentioned, 2032 would be the earliest a Melbourne bid could get off the ground anyway. And if Paris & L.A. host 2024 & 2028 respectively, I think a Melbourne 2032 bid would have a very good chance. Especially when it would mean three-consecutive strong & reliable, cost-effective Games; Paris, L.A. & Melbourne. That should give the IOC some real comfort for a long while.

I think Berlin, as nice as it would be, is a non-starter, as some as our German fellow posters have attested to. There's been too much opposition in Germany lately against the Olympics, i.e. Munich 2022 & Hamburg 2024, & especially Berlin would be problematic if their 2000 failed attempt is any indication. So doubtful the IOC would want to deal with any of that.

I think 2032 could position itself very nicely for Australia, providing the next two Summer Olympics go to where we think at this time are going. The time-window will come into question, but considering the alternatives that could likely be in play, Melbourne should have no problem. Doha will want to bid cause they'll say if Melbourne could bid with October dates, then why can't we. Fine, let them. They won't win anyway against Melbourne. Same with Baku. And the IOC will still want to take a break from Asia, especially China, so that puts Shanghai at bay (& Saporro could end up with 2026 if Europe doesn't come through again, so even more [east] Asian fatigue). Wouldn't worry too much about Russia, either.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, zekekelso said:

I'm guessing there is an old thread on this somewhere, but I couldn't find it. Realistically, what's the earliest Melbourne could host? 

What summer events need warmer temperatures? Can we ship 1-2 (beach volleyball?) to someplace warm? 

 

Melbourne could host in the July-August window - the winters can be wet though but we're not talking endless days of rain.  It is cool though - can get to single figures (celsius).

Quote

JULY & AUGUST

The windiest time of the year in Melbourne begins in July. There may be several days in succession of strong, cold north to northwest winds, often with cloud and some light rain. The weather is frequently cold and cloudy. The few days of calm sunny weather are accompanied by cold nights with frost or fog. Fog usually forms late in the evening and clears by mid-morning, but occasionally persists for the whole day during July. There are usually a few very cold days with strong southerly winds and showers, light snow may fall on the hills within 35 km of the city centre.  The year's coldest day, with a maximum temperature of about 9ºC, usually occurs during July. Some rain falls on an average of one day in two; on some of these days there may be only a little drizzle or a light shower. The highest number of wet days in any one-month in the city is twenty-seven, in August 1939. However, heavy rain is rare at this time of the year. In late August there are some warmer days, when the temperature usually reaches 20ºC for the first time since May.

http://www.melbourneaustralia.org/climate-weather

So late August into September would be better - tends to be drier.  Beach Volleyball could still be staged indoors or outdoors with heat lamps.

A lot of athletes prefer the cold to 30+ celcius days.

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/7/2017 at 8:25 PM, FYI said:

I think Berlin, as nice as it would be, is a non-starter, as some as our German fellow posters have attested to. There's been too much opposition in Germany lately against the Olympics, i.e. Munich 2022 & Hamburg 2024, & especially Berlin would be problematic if their 2000 failed attempt is any indication. So doubtful the IOC would want to deal with any of that.

 

Plus, it puts Bach in a very tricky position.  How many years does he have left as president?  

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 1 year later...

My guesses are: 

Brisbane/Melbourne, Australia 

Rhein-Ruhr/Hamburg/Berlin, Germany 

Budapest, Hungary

New Delhi, India

Seattle, USA (One is allowed to dream ;D) 

Busan, South Korea

Toronto, Canada

Rome, Italy

Madrid, Spain

Istanbul, Turkey 

Kazan/St. Petersburg/Sochi, Russia

Bangkok, Thailand 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 9 months later...
  • 4 months later...
On 2/20/2019 at 8:39 PM, iceyone444 said:

Do Australia want another games though - canada, south africa, new zealand, china?

Canada just recently rejected Calgary.

China has Beijing 2022

South Africa burnt all the bridges with the Commonwealth Games disaster and the IOC wants safe hosts

New Zealand is out and really small for XXII Games

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...