Tokyo 2020 News - General

[jiejie]

Don't want to be a Debbie Downer, but if you were planning to attend the Tokyo Olympics, you need to diligently follow what's going on with this coronavirus.   The Japanese government is simply putting face-saving and bureaucratic process ahead of public health.   Failure to close borders to Chinese early, misguided testing, and now the Diamond Princess debacle.   If you have not seen this video yet, you should....not so much for the situation on the cruise ship....but for the governmental mindset.

Given the number of new cases in Japan that have nothing to do with the Diamond Princess cruise ship nor with direct linkages to China, it's pretty clear that secondary and further transmission is going on in the community, and seems to be accelerating.    In a densely-packed country like Japan, and with 25% of the population over 65, this is not a good thing.  I predict that in about 3-4 weeks time, China might be a safer place to be (except Hubei) than Japan.     Draconian lockdowns and quarantines do work, even at great economic and personal liberty cost.  

If you were going to the Games but haven't yet made flight/accommodation arrangements, you might want to hold off for awhile and see how this thing goes.   I lived through SARS, and this in many ways is much worse and certainly promises to be more disruptive for a longer period of time.

By the way, I wouldn't put a lot of stock in the theory that this virus may disappear with warmer weather.  Singapore is warm all year, and they are currrently having to put up a mightly battle to try to stop the community transmission that is now occurring there.   

[jiejie]

Forgot to add to above on video:  Kentaro Iwata is a very respected infection control specialist and professor at Kobe University.   You can look up his bona fides yourself, if interested. 

[Palette86]

Quote

Diamond Princess ordeal ends for passengers who tested negative for COVID-19

The evacuation began Wednesday of a cruise ship quarantined after an outbreak of new coronavirus COVID-19, with several hundred passengers who had tested negative being allowed to leave the ship.

About 500 individuals, most of them elderly, disembarked from the Diamond Princess on Wednesday. Many of them took chartered buses provided by the city to Yokohama Station, while others hailed taxis or were collected by family members. Those that chose to leave by foot were quickly surrounded by members of the press.

“I’m relieved to finally get off the ship,” an elderly man in his 70s told reporters. “I want to go home and rest.”

The Diamond Princess — which had departed from Yokohama for a 16-day trip with stops in Japan, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Taiwan before its return — was carrying more than 3,700 passengers and crew when it made port about two weeks ago.

The vessel was placed under a 14-day quarantine after reports that an 80-year-old man who disembarked in Hong Kong had tested positive for COVID-19. Passengers were asked to remain in their rooms, where crew brought them food and supplies.

Date:FEB 19,2020

News source:The Japan Times

Link to this article:https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/19/national/diamond-princess-covid19-quarantine/#.Xk9uUTL7TIW

 

[Ikarus360]

Thanks to the stupid cultists in SK, now the country is the most infected country besides China and its scary as hell how laughably easy it spead into the country so quickly. It basically jumped from 50 to 600 in less than a week.

As much as they keep saying this wont ffect the Olympics i'm afraid they are going to get affected one way or another. At least the torch relay which starts next month is gonna be affected for sure

[Palette86]

China(Wu han)

USA

Japan

[Quaker2001]

On 2/23/2020 at 3:31 AM, Ikarus360 said:

As much as they keep saying this wont ffect the Olympics i'm afraid they are going to get affected one way or another. At least the torch relay which starts next month is gonna be affected for sure

100% it will affect the Olympics.  Just keeping my fingers crossed for everyone involved that this doesn't escalate to the point it causes the postponement of the Olympics.  Because if that happens, the whole planet is likely in trouble.

[StefanMUC]

Richard Pound's take on the issue: https://www.offtheball.com/other-sports/you-could-go-certainly-go-to-two-months-out-iocs-dick-pound-on-tokyo-threat-972912

Quite realistic, I'd say, at least more so than the usual all will be fine PR coming from Lausanne (and the host city, understandably at this point).

[Nacre]

On 2/24/2020 at 8:15 AM, Quaker2001 said:

100% it will affect the Olympics.  Just keeping my fingers crossed for everyone involved that this doesn't escalate to the point it causes the postponement of the Olympics.  Because if that happens, the whole planet is likely in trouble.

Yes. There's a reason there were no Olympics during the World Wars. If there are thousands of new infections in Japan, South Korea and Italy by July then global commercial air travel may be cut to a minimum and people will be hard pressed to get to the games in Tokyo anyway.

Yet people also need to keep this in context. Roughly 2,400 people have died of coronavirus. That's bad. But  >400,000 people die each year from malaria, there are about 36,000 influenza deaths worldwide each year, and there are on average 37,000 traffic fatalities in the USA each year. People don't care about those things because they are "normal", while coronavirus is novel.

Edited February 25, 2020 by Nacre

[JesseSaenz]

"Dick Pound"  is trending worldwide on Twitter regarding the potential cancellation of the Tokyo 2020 Games.

https://apnews.com/58043910be7bdc6818344bdee2096bc2

[TheOtherRob]

Hashtag Immature

[Quaker2001]

2 hours ago, Nacre said:

Yes. There's a reason there were no Olympics during the World Wars. If there are thousands of new infections in Japan, South Korea and Italy by July then global commercial air travel may be cut to a minimum and people will be hard pressed to get to the games in Tokyo anyway.

Yet people also need to keep this in context. Roughly 2,400 people have died of coronavirus. That's bad. But  >400,000 people die each year from malaria, there are about 36,000 influenza deaths worldwide each year, and there are on average 37,000 traffic fatalities in the USA each year. People don't care about those things because they are "normal", while coronavirus is novel.

There are treatments for malaria and for influenza and preventative measures for how to avoid traffic fatalities.  Coronavirus isn't a big story because it's new.  It's because they don't have a treatment for it yet and it's spreading quicker than the world seems to know how to handle it.  It's not about the number of infections so much as an inability to treat those who are infected.

[Ikarus360]

I understand if the games are cancelled, because human lifes are currently more important. It's still deeply sad and frustrating as hell seeing an event I was eagily waiting so much for seven years, only to get burned into the ground with just a few months to go because their neighbours have to eat everything that moves.

If Tokyo has to cancel the olympics, I hope karmic justice does its job and Beijing somehow loses their games in 2022 as well.

[Quaker2001]

14 minutes ago, Ikarus360 said:

I understand if the games are cancelled, because human lifes are currently more important. It's still deeply sad and frustrating as hell seeing an event I was eagily waiting so much for seven years, only to get burned into the ground with just a few months to go because their neighbours have to eat everything that moves.

If Tokyo has to cancel the olympics, I hope karmic justice does its job and Beijing somehow loses their games in 2022 as well.

As much of an Olympics super-fan as I am and how upset I would be if the whole thing got cancelled.. if that happens, it means after several months, the world will not yet have figured out how to deal with this virus.  Which means the entire planet may have a really big issue to deal with.  And yes, shame on those who potentially caused all this in the first place because no animal is too exotic for them not to eat.

[paul]

Wow this is getting crazy. What happens if the games are cancelled? Assuming (hopefully) the virus gets in control does Tokyo squeeze in a 2021 or 22 Summer games, do they go after LA....or what? 

[Quaker2001]

14 minutes ago, paul said:

Wow this is getting crazy. What happens if the games are cancelled? Assuming (hopefully) the virus gets in control does Tokyo squeeze in a 2021 or 22 Summer games, do they go after LA....or what? 

Usual over-reactions to world events.  This is serious right now, but the Olympics are 5 months off.  If they can't get the virus under control in that time, what does that say about the state of the planet?

I doubt they could re-schedule, but it is worth noting.. normally the Summer of a Winter Olympics year is occupied by the World Cup.  Not so this time around since the 2022 World Cup is in November.

[Texas]

I hope we get this resolved by the start of the Olympics.  I wonder how it would affect domestic sports in the United States such as the 2020 NFL season?

[Quaker2001]

4 minutes ago, Texas said:

I hope we get this resolved by the start of the Olympics.  I wonder how it would affect domestic sports in the United States such as the 2020 NFL season?

The NHL and NBA are unaffected.  MLB is underway with spring training.  No reason to think the NFL would be affected.

[rio2016man]

Biggest losers will be TV especially NBC in USA When the USA boycotted Moscow in 1980 it almost bankrupted NBC (who had rights in USA that year) The Olympics are used as a lead in to new fall schedule

[Quaker2001]

6 hours ago, rio2016man said:

Biggest losers will be TV especially NBC in USA When the USA boycotted Moscow in 1980 it almost bankrupted NBC (who had rights in USA that year) The Olympics are used as a lead in to new fall schedule

Where'd you get that from?  NBC took a huge loss from those Olympics, but it didn't bankrupt them.

Obviously the stakes are pretty high this year and I don't know what kind of insurance or protection they have if the games get cancelled.  But yes, that would be a major blow to NBC.

[paul]

TOKYO (AP) — Japan will close schools nationwide to help control the spread of the new virus, the government announced Thursday.

[Nacre]

NBC lost $32 million in 1980 from the Olympics boycott, which is only $100 million in 2020 USD. But that was a different era and I can't find any records of their profitability or total revenue from that era from a quick search. I suspect Quaker is right, and that while it was a huge blow they were able to recover from the games in Los Angeles and Seoul. Today it might be a bigger problem for them with very low profitability for broadcast media.

[Quaker2001]

18 hours ago, Nacre said:

NBC lost $32 million in 1980 from the Olympics boycott, which is only $100 million in 2020 USD. But that was a different era and I can't find any records of their profitability or total revenue from that era from a quick search. I suspect Quaker is right, and that while it was a huge blow they were able to recover from the games in Los Angeles and Seoul. Today it might be a bigger problem for them with very low profitability for broadcast media.

NBC didn't have the LA Games, but they did win the rights for Seoul, so clearly they weren't so put off by what happened in 1980 that they didn't want to return.  It was a large sum of money, but nothing along the lines of them going bankrupt.

What's probably going to suffer the most at NBC if the Olympics are cancelled is Peacock, their new streaming service.  Set to debut in full on July 15th (Comcast subscribers will start having access on April 15th), exclusive Olympics content will be a big part of their launch.  Without the Olympics, that's probably a lot of potential customers they won't be able to bring in.

NBC's rights fee for this summer's Olympics is $1.45 billion.  Plus however much they're spending in additional production costs.  But that's going to much more than just the broadcast media.  Moreso than ever, their digital and cable efforts will be a major aspect of their success or failure.  If the Olympics are cancelled, all of that takes a hit.  Comcast's profitability comes from a lot more than just the broadcast network.

[Texas]

NBA, NHL and MLB in contact with CDC and other health organizations:

https://www.cbc.ca/sports/north-american-sports-leagues-covid-19-coronavirus-monitoring-1.5481401

 

[Palette86]

Never knew this because of recent coronavirus panic.

 

[stryker]

I think the IOC and Tokyo organizers are hoping that with the summer heat that the COVID-19 will go away. If it continues, it's hard to see how the Olympics go on as planned with the prospect of mostly empty venues and possibly even denying entry to teams such as China and South Korea. Much has been made about the cash hit sponsors would take not to mention many of the venues are Olympic-purpose built and either reduced in size or dismantled entirely afterwards. If the Olympics were cancelled for Tokyo this would be even worse than the dreaded white elephants. IMO, I could see the Olympics being postponed, perhaps moved to summer 2021. I know there'd be quite a few logistical headaches to work out not to mention maybe some renegotiations with the likes of NBC, but it would be netter than an outright cancellation or trying to relocate the Olympics last minute.