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A worst case scenario, but, one that does bear thinking about especially if COVID-19 is seasonal and comes in waves as some are predicting. If we are still talking about COVID-19 as a problem in Japan by summer of next year, then, what would the next step be. I think the IOC would have no choice but a cancellation. I doubt Tokyo would want to splash out even more cash for a postponement to 2022.

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On 4/3/2020 at 2:03 AM, Rob. said:

Meet what by next spring? Russia's ban is for four years. I don't see how a one year delay to the Olympics changes things.

Rob, here goes on Russians oligarchs cozying up to the IOC to get back in their good graces.   

From the new Journal of the ISOH on the sale of the most expensive piece of Olympic memorabilia sold to date: - the original Olympic Manifesto in gran-granpere's handwritten, sold at Sotheby's NY last December. 

Sotheby's link:  https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2019/fine-books-and-manuscripts-including-the-olympic-manifesto/coubertin-pierre-de-the-olympic-manifesto

Full story and Russian bidder revealed in the new Journal of the ISOH: 


The manuscript was sold for $8,806,500 – a price that had never been achieved in the past 30 years in this field.

While Sotheby’s kept the name of the winner anonymous, he revealed himself of his own accord on 10th February 2020. It was the Russian oligarch and President of the International Fencing Federation (FIE), Alisher Usmanov, who donated the document to the Olympic Museum in Lausanne. The Director General of a Gazprom subsidiary, one of the richest people in the world, he had previously made a name for himself as a patron of the arts. After the death of Mstislav Rostropovich, he acquired the collection of the celebrated cellist and his wife Galina Vishnevskya for $100 million in 2007, in order to leave it to the Pushkin Museum in Moscow

If this friend of Putin can donate $108 million+ so far to the IOC and to the Pushkin Museum in Moscow, can a TOP sponsorship or two from a Russian company be too far off for the IOC to forgive past Russian drug transgressions and be a full participant, if not by Tokyo 2020-1; then hopefully by Beijing 2022?   

NZ papers' report  when the item sold:   https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/sport/405856/olympic-manifesto-becomes-most-expensive-piece-of-sports-memorabilia?fbclid=IwAR3QPNtwP7eiPKIcAcu8cBY3NoMONVWmx9JQs1y_rmsI_ClyATLojAkaPIA 

Edited by baron-pierreIV
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So already there's rumblings that the Tokyo Olympics could be in jeopardy next year? It's still a ways off I get that, but there's a valid point to be made that the idea of full stadiums and an Olympics as normal probably doesn't happen until either a vaccine is found or an effective treatment plan is created and used on a wide-scale basis. Add to that the costs of this postponement are expected to be in the billions and the IOC gave the No Olympics crowd a gift by stating the IOC will cover the cost a few hundred million but Tokyo will have to come up with the rest. Compound that with not just a recession but a possible depression and things get ugly financially for Japan very quickly. And as Japan has said there's no Plan B, if the virus is still around by next summer, then a cancellation is the only option and the enormous financial loss probably kills Sapporo's bid as well.

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Reading reports that Japan only conducted 16% of the number of tests South Korea did (even worse, with a much larger population) in March, I think it's becoming more and more obvious that Abe and co. tried to keep things under the rug as long as possible to avoid cancelling/postponing the Olympics. And now they're seeing a steep increase in infections. Was that worth it for the Japanese government and the IOC?

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9 hours ago, StefanMUC said:

Reading reports that Japan only conducted 16% of the number of tests South Korea did (even worse, with a much larger population) in March, I think it's becoming more and more obvious that Abe and co. tried to keep things under the rug as long as possible to avoid cancelling/postponing the Olympics. And now they're seeing a steep increase in infections. Was that worth it for the Japanese government and the IOC?

In hindsight, clearly not.  The question now is how do they manage the fallout?  It's anyone's best guess what the state of the world will look this time next year.  At this point, I do trust that Tokyo will do whatever they can to make the Olympics happen, which means instead of trying to suppress the numbers, now that need to look into testing and the development of a vaccine.  And yes, the economic fallout of all this would likely be devastating for the city and the country.

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Tokyo and the IOC at odds over who's picking up the tab for the postponement? I'm not surprised though I am surprised it's come out already. A Tokyo spokesman asks the IOC to remove a comment from its website from Abe suggesting that Tokyo would pay most of the costs. Meanwhile, John Coates says the IOC is chipping in a few hundred million (a drop in the bucket really) and that's it. Add to that the current cost of the Olympics is at $12.6 billion but a government audit suggests the actual costs are at least twice that. I'd venture to say the actual cost is somewhere close to $30 million, of which only $5.6 million is with private funds. When all the costs are counted with the postponement, who knows how costly this could get. Maybe Tokyo becomes the SOGs version of Sochi in terms of actual costs?

Regardless of what the final figures are, Japan is entering a recession as it faces what is just the tip of the iceberg in COVID19 cases. This has the making of a perfect storm in terms of a PR disaster for the IOC regardless of what the host city contract says.

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  • 2 weeks later...

'No Plan B' if Tokyo Games can't start in 2021: John Coates

 John Coates, the head of the International Olympic Committee’s coordination commission, said Saturday that Tokyo Olympic planning was moving forward with no thought to any further postponements should the games not be feasible next year.

Coates, who was in Sydney to attend the Australian Olympic Committee’s annual general meeting, told local media: “We’re proceeding on the basis that there is no Plan B of deferring the games again or anything like that.”

The comments are similar in tone to those made by the IOC and Japanese organizers through February when the wisdom of holding the Olympics during a global health crisis was being questioned.

Right up until March 24, when the postponement was announced, the Japanese government stuck publicly to its policy that the games would go ahead as planned this July. The IOC, too, adhered to that line until early March. But when the United States’ two biggest national sports federations opposed going forward in 2020 due to the pandemic, the IOC quickly went back on that all-or-nothing stance.

Now as planning moves forward for next year’s Olympics, public health experts around the globe have now warned they cannot be held in 2021 unless a vaccine is available in time, an opinion Coates has rejected.

On Saturday, Coates compared the 2020 Olympics to those held in the wake of the last two world wars, and said he expected they would be the greatest ever.

“Because we all must wait longer than the already long wait for an Olympics, the games of Tokyo will gently but perceptibly echo the sheer joy and relief of the other delayed Olympics of Antwerp in 1920 and London in 1948,” he told the annual general meeting of the Australian Olympic Committee according to a Reuters report.

“I believe the Tokyo Olympics may ultimately be amongst the greatest games ever, if not the greatest,” he said.

Date:10 May,2020

News source:The Japan Times

Link to this article:https://www.japantimes.co.jp/sports/2020/05/10/olympics/no-plan-b-tokyo-games-cant-start-2021-john-coates/#.XrovrUT7TIX

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10 hours ago, Palette86 said:

As the article notes.. there wasn't a plan B the first time out.  Then they said they would take 4 weeks to come up with a plan B.  1 week later, they announced the postponement.

I don't know if another postponement is possible and will be under consideration at any point.  But it doesn't seem like it should be completely out of the realm of possible for that to happen just because he's saying so now

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19 hours ago, baron-pierreIV said:

I've already seen ads on Facebook for "official" Tokyo 2020 merchandise.  (I was going to buy a T-shirt, but when I clicked on it, it was obvious it had been blocked.)  So some suppliers are trying to unload their stuff illicitly now.  

I think you just have been led to the wrong site.

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IOC expects costs of up to $800m for delayed Tokyo Olympics

The International Olympic Committee expects to bear costs of up to $800 million for its part in the organisation of the postponed Tokyo 2020 Olympics, now due to be staged next year, IOC President Thomas Bach said on Thursday.

In March, the International Olympic Committee and the Japanese government decided to delay the Games, which were due to start this July, for a year because of the coronavirus pandemic that has killed 300,000 people worldwide.

"We anticipate we will have to bear costs of up to $800 million for our part and responsibilities in the organisation of the postponed Games Tokyo 2020," Bach told a conference call at the end of the IOC's executive board meeting.

He said out of the amount that would be set aside $650 million would go towards the organisation of the Games next year and $150 million to support international federations and National Olympic Committees.

International federations rely on the Olympic Games contribution every four years, and with a ban on sports competitions worldwide all of their major sources of revenue have dried up in recent months.

"We are discussing with international federations the consequences of the postponement... and the postponement of the share of the international federations from the commercial success of the Games," Bach said.

"We are very well advanced in these discussions and we will continue to assist," he said.

The figure announced by Bach does not include any costs Tokyo Games organisers and the Japanese government have to incur due to the 12-month delay of the world's biggest multi-sports event.

"We are assessing and continue to discuss jointly the respective impact caused by the postponement," he said. "What you have seen today, this envelope of $800 million, is the assessment for the IOC side.

"This discussion with the (Tokyo Games) organising committee will continue in the way we have agreed."

The IOC last month was forced to remove a comment from its website that referred to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe when discussing costs for the postponement, following objections from the Games organisers.

Bach noted that the first priority now was to secure the Olympic venues, including the athletes' village and the media centres, for another year.

"This is not an easy undertaking. Our Japanese friends are working with full force on this," he said.

Bach declined to speculate on a possible new delay to the Games if the coronavirus is still a major concern next year.

More than 90 vaccines are currently being developed globally, with eight in the clinical trial phase. But experts say the process could take years and may not happen at all.

"We are now working with full engagement for the success of Tokyo 2020 in 2021 and to have these Games in a safe environment for all participants," Bach said.

"We are one year and two months away from the opening of these postponed Olympic games. We should not fuel any speculation on any future development."

Date:May 15,2020

News source: Nikkei Asian Review


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IOC's Thomas Bach accepts Tokyo Olympics would have to be cancelled if not held in 2021

International Olympic Committee President Thomas Bach says he understands why the rescheduled Tokyo 2020 Games would have to be cancelled if it cannot take place next summer.

Local organisers have said they have no back-up plan after the event was postponed by a year because of the coronavirus crisis.

"You cannot forever employ 3,000 to 5,000 people in an organising committee," Bach told BBC Sport. "You cannot have the athletes being in uncertainty."

In a wide-ranging interview, Bach also:

  • admitted the job of re-organising the Games was "a mammoth task"
  • warned that the event would "definitely be different" with a focus on "essentials"
  • would not be drawn on whether a vaccine for Covid-19 would be needed for the event to take place
  • insisted staging the Games behind closed doors was "not what we want", but he needs more time to consider whether that was feasible

Bach said he hoped the first ever postponed Games, which are due to take place from 23 July to 8 August 2021, could prove "unique" and send "a message of solidarity among the entire world, coming for the first time together again, and celebrating the triumph over coronavirus".

"There is no blueprint for it so we have to reinvent the wheel day by day. It's very challenging and at the same time fascinating."

  • 2020 Olympics will be 'scrapped' instead of delayed again, says Games chief

Will a vaccine be found?

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has admitted it may be "difficult" to stage the Games if the country does not successfully contain the virus, and the head of the Japan Medical Association has suggested it depends on finding a vaccine.

When asked directly if he agreed, Bach said: "For this question, we are relying on the advice of the World Health Organisation.

"We have established one principle: to organise these Games in a safe environment for all the participants. Nobody knows what the world will look like in one year, in two months.

"So we have to rely on [experts] and then take the appropriate decision at the appropriate time based on this advice."

The 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics are due to take place in China just six months after the Tokyo Games, and Bach said that Prime Minister Abe had made it clear to him that, as far as Japan was concerned, next summer was "the last option".

"Quite frankly, I have some understanding for this, because you cannot forever employ 3,000, or 5,000, people in an Organising Committee," said Bach.

"You cannot every year change the entire sports schedule worldwide of all the major federations. You cannot have the athletes being in uncertainty.

"You cannot have so much overlapping with a future Olympic Games, so I have some understanding for this approach by our Japanese partners."

When asked how confident he was that the Games would go ahead, Bach said: "We have to be prepared for different scenarios. There is the clear commitment to having these games in July next year.

"At the same time, looking at the scenarios this may require towards the organisation, with regard to health measures, these maybe need quarantine for the athletes, for part of the athletes, for other participants.

"What could this mean for the life in an Olympic Village and so on? All these different scenarios are under consideration and this is why I'm saying it's a mammoth task, because there are so many different options that it's not easy to address them [now]. When we have a clear view on how the world will look on 23 July, 2021, then [we will] take the appropriate decisions."

Could the Games be staged behind closed doors?

If social distancing restrictions are still in force in Japan next summer, some have suggested the Games may have to be staged behind closed doors.

Bach said such a scenario remained "speculation".

"This is not what we want," he said. "Because the Olympic spirit is about also uniting the fans and this is what makes the Games so unique that they're in an Olympic Stadium, all the fans from all over the world are together.

"But when it then would come to the decision... I would ask you to give me some more time for consultation with the athletes, with the World Health Organisation, with the Japanese partners."

The IOC has set aside $800m (£654m) to help with the financial impact caused by the postponement of Tokyo 2020. The total additional cost to Japan has been estimated at between two and six billion dollars.

But Bach said there would also have to be cutbacks to the Games.

"They will definitely be different, and they have to be different," he said. "If we all have learned something during this crisis, [it is] to look to the essentials and not so much on the nice-to-have things.

"So this concentration on the essentials should be reflected in the organisation of these Games... there should be no taboo."

Why were the Games not postponed sooner?

Two months ago, Bach faced unprecedented criticism from athletes for not postponing the Games earlier.

"The developments were so fast that you could not know what would happen tomorrow," he said when asked if he would do anything differently now.

'To find the balance between the more optimistic experts, saying, 'wait, you still have time. It's still some months away. Let's see how it goes', and the others saying, 'this will be a total disaster - why don't you take this decision right now?' This was the challenge every day.

"And this had to be done in consultation with our Japanese partners, because we could have cancelled the Games alone, without them, and that would have been an easy decision in one way.

"We could have said, 'OK, this is it.' We would have got our money being paid by insurance. And we could have started to prepare for Paris [2024 Games]. But this was not a real option because this would have deprived the athletes of this unique Olympic experience."

Bach said he was "happy" last weekend to see the Bundesliga resume in his native Germany, even though fans were not present.

"I wish that now all the other sports are coming back," he said. "On the other hand, I was a little bit feeling for the players, how strange it must be for them, playing in these huge stadiums...

"So I hope now that is the first step. Sport has to respect the rules, like any other organisation and area of society. But that slowly, we can come back and then maybe lift these restrictions in a responsible way."

Bach appealed to governments around the world to do what they can to help sports deal with the financial crisis caused by the pandemic.

"There is, first of all, the contribution of sport to health, and everybody realises that we must concentrate more on health in in the in the future," he said.

"Secondly, sport makes the great contribution to the inclusivity of society... sport is the best glue for a society.

"And thirdly, sport is also a very important economic factor. We had a study that about 3% of all the jobs being offered in Europe are sports-related.

"And this is why we are urging the governments to honour and to acknowledge the role of sport, and to include them in their recovery programmes."

Date:20 May,2020

News source:BBC News

Link to this article:https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797


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  • 3 weeks later...

Japan mulls simplifying Tokyo Games due to coronavirus

Japan is considering simplifying the format of next year's Tokyo Olympics as part of efforts to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus, government sources said Thursday.

The changes could include a reduction in the number of spectators and a scaling back of the opening and closing ceremonies of both the Olympics and Paralympics, according to the sources.

The provision of medical services, including polymerase chain reaction tests for athletes, staff and spectators, and restrictions on outings from the athletes' village are also being floated as possible measures against the virus.

"We hope to work together with the government and the Tokyo organizing committee to look into what can be rationalized and simplified," Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike told reporters. "It will be necessary in order to gain empathy and understanding from the public."

Organizing committee spokesman Masanori Takaya revealed that concrete measures to cope with the health threat would be taken up from this autumn.

"When it comes time to stage next year's games, the biggest issue will be our coronavirus countermeasures," he said.

The International Olympic Committee and the Japanese government were forced to make an unprecedented decision in March to postpone the Olympics, initially due to begin July 24, for one year due to the outbreak of the virus.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has said the Olympics and Paralympics should be held in a "complete form" and dismissed the option of reducing the scale of the games, which remains the government's ultimate aim.

But Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga on Thursday stopped short of clarifying whether the government is still sticking to its pledge.

"It is extremely important to host a secure and safe games for athletes and spectators," the top government spokesman told a press conference.

The sources said the Tokyo organizing committee and the IOC are already in discussions about revisions to their operational plans to reduce costs and adopt measures against the virus.

Without going into details, Japan's Olympic minister Seiko Hashimoto said, "We have to consider what should be done, including testing, to ensure security and safety" over preventive measures against viral infections.

The Olympics are slated to be held from July 23 to Aug. 8 next year, with the Paralympic Games following between Aug. 24 and Sept. 5.

John Coates, who heads the IOC's coordination commission, said last month that October will be a critical period for assessing whether the Japanese capital can host the games next year as scheduled.

"The games can only happen in 2021. We can't postpone it again and we have to assume that there won't be a vaccine or, if there is a vaccine, it won't be sufficient to share around the world," The Australian newspaper quoted Coates as saying during a roundtable of sports executives organized by Australia's News Corp.

June 4,2020

News source: Kyodo news

Link to this article:https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/06/f85a8e5bfa07-breaking-news-japan-govt-mulls-simplifying-tokyo-olympics.html

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  • 1 month later...
On 7/15/2020 at 9:37 PM, olympikfan said:

Don't rule out that Tokyo might get cancel. Its a strong possibility. If the world has a second wave and COVID can not be control . The Olympics are cancel. And if anyone thinks it wont happen the risks are very high.

Who is ruling it out and thinks it won't happen?

We have no idea what the world will look like 4 or 8 or 12 months from now.  It doesn't need to be said, not by Dick Pound or whoever in a forum, that the Olympics might get cancelled.  I think we all know that at this point.

However, if they don't get cancelled...Tokyo Olympic schedule remains the same, venues lined up

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Oxford is our only hope right now. Let's hope the vaccine happens very soon or that at least the virus mutates into a less dangerous strain. I just wish people weren't so goddamn stupid around the world and either wore masks or were efficient in government, then maybe this chaos wouldn't be as bad. This crisis has really exposed the worse of many.

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